2022 Brewers Offense

[Jim French Stepstool]

As this season unfolds, I'm confident that whatever glaring deficiencies we may prove to have, Urias won't be one of them. Provided the thumb doesn't prove to be a chronic thing.

[BruisedCrew]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Prospect rankings may not matter to you personally, but they certainly matter when trying to establish a young player like Urias' potential and ability. Sure prospect evaluation is an inexact science and many top prospects have flamed out over the years, but they have proven predictive ability. Just look at the list of best players in the game, such as Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Vlad Jr, Acuna, etc. Top 20 prospects all of them. So, the fact that Urias was once a top 20/30 prospect and is still only in his second season as a regular starter matters a great deal when trying to predict what kind of production he will put forward over the remainder of this season. Particularly when he's already OPS'd almost .800 over the course of a full season. 

From what I've read, Urias did not injure his thumb during Friday's game, but has been dealing with it for a little while after getting jammed a couple times in quick succession. Though he continued to try to play through it, it got to the point on Friday where it was negatively impacting his ability to make accurate throws to first, as demonstrated by his error on the Mazara grounder in the 3rd inning. 

And, as I stated above, his current WAR of .9 over 28 games extends out to 5.2 over the course of 162 games. That's all-star level production. Maybe less than what the Cardinals are getting from Arenado, but still significantly more than the Dodgers are getting from Turner right now. 

 

 

I didn’t think or say that Urias first injured the thumb on Friday. But I didn’t think it happened in early May either. If it did happen that long ago, and is still bothering him now, it is probably going to be a chronic problem for some time. 
 

A .740 OPS is the current NL average for the third base position. What Turner is currently hitting is irrelevant because the Dodgers have enough stars at other positions to absorb a below average performance at one position and still have the highest scoring team in the league. 

[BruisedCrew]

7 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

As this season unfolds, I'm confident that whatever glaring deficiencies we may prove to have, Urias won't be one of them. Provided the thumb doesn't prove to be a chronic thing.

I agree with this. Having a league average hitter for the 3B position is not one of the offense’s biggest problems. 

Being near worst in the league at LF, CF, and DH is something else again. 

[Jopal78]

48 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I agree with this. Having a league average hitter for the 3B position is not one of the offense’s biggest problems. 

Being near worst in the league at LF, CF, and DH is something else again. 

It’s easier than that. The Brewers have too many regulars with a sub .750 OPS. 
 

Adames, Renfroe and maybe Tellez are the only ones who have been fine offensively, and I’m giving Tellez a demerit because a .780 OPS at 1B is basically average for the position. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

26 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

It’s easier than that. The Brewers have too many regulars with a sub .750 OPS. 
 

Adames, Renfroe and maybe Tellez are the only ones who have been fine offensively, and I’m giving Tellez a demerit because a .780 OPS at 1B is basically average for the position. 

Narvaez was doing just fine before going on the COVID IR. Hopefully it's a short stay for him. 

They need more from Wong at 2B, the tandem of Cain/Taylor in CF, and obviously Yelich in LF.  It would be nice to have another solid bench bat available, but overall I'm pretty satisfied with what they have at the other positions once Adames, Narvaez, Renfroe and Urias are back playing regularly.

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Narvaez was doing just fine before going on the COVID IR. Hopefully it's a short stay for him. 

They need more from Wong at 2B, the tandem of Cain/Taylor in CF, and obviously Yelich in LF.  It would be nice to have another solid bench bat available, but overall I'm pretty satisfied with what they have at the other positions once Adames, Narvaez, Renfroe and Urias are back playing regularly.

I forgot about Narvaez, good call. But really, my point is they could use better offense across the board almost regardless of position. To be sure, a group of hitters all with an OPS around .740 may keep them in the race if the pitching staff holds up; but with that caliber of hitters they are not going to win many games against teams with equally good pitching (Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Cardinals, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, etc.).

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I forgot about Narvaez, good call. But really, my point is they could use better offense across the board almost regardless of position. To be sure, a group of hitters all with an OPS around .740 may keep them in the race if the pitching staff holds up; but with that caliber of hitters they are not going to win many games against teams with equally good pitching (Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Cardinals, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, etc.).

I agree. But while they may be able to make one or two incremental outside improvements to the lineup, we aren't going to see the offense itself improve drastically unless a handful of the current group begin performing better. 

[jay87shot]

I really think it is time to move Yeli out of the 3 hole. Batting leadoff might change his mindset to getting on base and not trying to hit everything out of the park. Also Cutch and Cain need to take breaks, especially not putting Cutch in the top 4 like it seems he is. Hopefully Adames and Renfrow coming back will be enough but I have been disappointed with the batting order the past couple weeks.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

I forgot about Narvaez, good call. But really, my point is they could use better offense across the board almost regardless of position. To be sure, a group of hitters all with an OPS around .740 may keep them in the race if the pitching staff holds up; but with that caliber of hitters they are not going to win many games against teams with equally good pitching (Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Cardinals, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, etc.).

I realize this is the offense thread and not the NL Central thread, but the Cardinals do not have equally good pitching as the Brewers.

[monty57]

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I realize this is the offense thread and not the NL Central thread, but the Cardinals do not have equally good pitching as the Brewers.

If you go by FIP or WAR, then only the Yankees have better pitching than the Brewers. The Brewers are built on pitching, and that is how they will live or die.

Their offense is middle-of-the-pack. Give Stearns another $100M/year in payroll, and we could have it both ways, but under the Brewers' payroll constraints, we aren't going to be able to add a 'big name" to fill every hole in the roster. 

I would love to add a big bat to this team, but I understand that probably isn't going to happen. I am very happy that we're watching one of the best teams in Brewers' history, so I'm not going to complain too much.

Brewer management knows the team better than I do, and it appears they already told Cain that his playing time was going to be limited... then injuries happened. If we limit Cain's PA's and limit McCutchen to starts vs LHP, we've eliminated most of the "black holes" in the lineup. We may not have a 1.000 OPS guy, but with our pitching, an offense with a bunch of decent hitters and no "black holes" could get us near 100 wins and possibly a first round bye.

[nate82]

I don't believe the Brewers offense is all that bad especially when Renfroe, Narvaez, Adames and Urias are in the lineup.  

Renfroe:

Season	Team	Level	G	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2022	MIL	MLB	39	155	9	.266	.303	.503	.345	120	0.8

Adames:

Season	Team	Level	G	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2022	MIL	MLB	35	148	9	.208	.304	.462	.335	113	1.2

Narvaez:

Season	Team	Level	G	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2022	MIL	MLB	32	121	2	.274	.364	.415	.345	119	1.0

Urias:

Season	Team	Level	G	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2022	MIL	MLB	28	120	5	.243	.342	.398	.332	111	0.1

Compared to the popular FA this past offseason:

Castellanos:

Season	Team	Level	G	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2022	PHI	MLB	53	225	7	.244	.302	.410	.313	98	-0.3

Bryant:

Season	Team	Level	G	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2022	COL	MLB	17	73	0	.270	.342	.333	.304	81	-0.3

Rizzo:

Season	Team	Level	G	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2022	NYY	MLB	53	223	13	.215	.318	.482	.343	129	0.7

Story:

Season	Team	Level	G	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2022	BOS	MLB	49	216	9	.225	.315	.439	.326	111	1.6

Schwarber

Season	Team	Level	G	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2022	PHI	MLB	52	224	14	.197	.321	.457	.339	116	0.9

 

Other than Story the free agents this off season are not really all that impressive especially Castellanos and Bryant.  Renfroe is a clear win over Castellanos.  The problem right now with the Brewers offense is Yelich and McCutchen.  The Brewers are not going to be able to improve with Yelich so the only other option really is to improve over McCutchen by finding a platoon partner at DH.  I don't believe Hiura is the answer there and I think the Brewers need to add another LH bat that can take that spot and also play some 1B.  A platoon of Bell and McCutchen would be almost perfect as they compliment each other perfectly in their splits.  

That would then only leave two holes in the lineup with Taylor/Cain and Yelich.  Yelich should probably slot into the leadoff spot and then move Wong down to 8th or 9th.  The problem then becomes finding a #3 hitter and that would fall on either Adames or Urias.  Probably go with Adames at 3 and Urias at 2 so the lineup would look something like this:

1. Yelich

2. Urias

3. Adames

4. Tellez

5. Renfroe

6. Narvaez

7. Bell/McCutchen

8. Wong

9. Taylor/Cain

[brewers888]

What other contending teams would continue to go with Yelich and McCutchen as their 3rd and 4th hitters.

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

What other contending teams would continue to go with Yelich and McCutchen as their 3rd and 4th hitters.

Since you asked, the Rays are currently batting Kevin Kiermaier cleanup....And they're most similar to us of all the contenders in terms of market size. 

[NBBrewFan]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Since you asked, the Rays are currently batting Kevin Kiermaier cleanup....And they're most similar to us of all the contenders in terms of market size. 

TB

3rd/4th = .788/.614

Brewers

3rd/4th  = .673/.569

Try again.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, NBBrewFan said:

TB

3rd/4th = .788/.614

Brewers

3rd/4th  = .673/.569

Try again.

Wow you really owned me. Like you've been waiting for that or something. And he asked the question of which teams would even consider batting Yelich and/or McCutchen 3rd and 4th. I responded that the Rays might on this particular night, considering Kevin Kiermaier is worse than Yelich in terms of OPS. 

[DuWayne Steurer]

I mean, Kiermayer's stat line is pretty similar to McCutchen's, as far as ugliness for a cleanup hitter's goes.  Granted, the Ray's don't have a .660 OPS guy slapping ground balls to 2B all night every night, but there's not a whole lot of difference between Kiermayer and McCutchen. 

[NBBrewFan]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Wow you really owned me. Like you've been waiting for that or something. And he asked the question of which teams would even consider batting Yelich and/or McCutchen 3rd and 4th. I responded that the Rays might on this particular night, considering Kevin Kiermaier is worse than Yelich in terms of OPS. 

Yeah thanks for filling in 1 position.  He was talking about 3rd/4th, but of course the 3rd hitter for the Rays is only .115 OPS points higher than Yelich so of course you ignore him.

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

Yeah thanks for filling in 1 position.  He was talking about 3rd/4th, but of course the 3rd hitter for the Rays is only .115 OPS points higher than Yelich so of course you ignore him.

Okay. So maybe they would bat Yelich cleanup and McCutchen 6th instead of Brett Phillips.....

[Robocaller]

15 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I forgot about Narvaez, good call. But really, my point is they could use better offense across the board almost regardless of position. To be sure, a group of hitters all with an OPS around .740 may keep them in the race if the pitching staff holds up; but with that caliber of hitters they are not going to win many games against teams with equally good pitching (Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Cardinals, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, etc.).

So you're saying that it would be great to improve at every position.
Can't argue with that. Don't know how to accomplish it though.

[Jopal78]

18 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I realize this is the offense thread and not the NL Central thread, but the Cardinals do not have equally good pitching as the Brewers.

From a Talent/Prestige perspective they do not. But results-wise; yes they do. In fact heading into last nights game their staff had allowed fewer runs on the season than Milwaukee.

[Jopal78]

4 hours ago, Robocaller said:

So you're saying that it would be great to improve at every position.
Can't argue with that. Don't know how to accomplish it though.

Outside of possibly three or four players every other player has been a disappointment so far offensively: Urias, Wong, Yelich, Taylor, Cain, Hiura, etc.

Clearly there are no hitters in the minor leagues coming to the rescue this year; and the trade deadline is far away; thus the only solution is for the aforementioned players currently on the roster to hit better. 
 

Maybe those players are incapable of finding another gear offensively and they simply built a flawed roster where excellent pitching performances are wasted on a nightly basis. 

[monty57]

7 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Outside of possibly three or four players every other player has been a disappointment so far offensively: Urias, Wong, Yelich, Taylor, Cain, Hiura, etc.

Clearly there are no hitters in the minor leagues coming to the rescue this year; and the trade deadline is far away; thus the only solution is for the aforementioned players currently on the roster to hit better. 
 

Maybe those players are incapable of finding another gear offensively and they simply built a flawed roster where excellent pitching performances are wasted on a nightly basis. 

Reading that, it'd make me think it's time to give up on the season.

Seriously, everyone knew this team was built on pitching. We could have improved the offense immensely by trading Burnes or Woodruff this past offseason, but I don't think too many people wanted that. 

We had very limited payroll room to add talent, and we really only had some payroll room because Stearns was somehow able to con the Red Sox into giving us Renfroe for JBJ. McCutchen hasn't been good, but what really could Stearns have obtained in free agency with under $10M in payroll space this year, and no space next year? 

It's always better to use relative stats to see how our guys compare to their peers, so here is the wRC+ for our primary guys:

C) Narvaez (119), Caratini (104) 

1B) Tellez (118)

2B) Wong (100) 

SS) Adames (113)

3B) Urias (103)

LF) Yelich (93)

CF) Taylor (91), Cain (29)

RF) Renfroe (114)

DH) Hiura (111), McCutchen (66)

Utility: Peterson (109), Brosseau (119), 

I don't see a "flawed roster" filled with underperforming players. For the most part, our team has been league average or better. As I mentioned previously, Cain has been told he's going to sit, and hopefully Hiura will mainly hit vs RHP and McCutchen will mainly hit vs LHP.

We're stuck with Yelich, so all we can really do is hope he "finds it." I do agree that he should be moved out of the #3 spot, probably to leadoff where his OBP skills and good baserunning can benefit the team. 

I think we will roll with Taylor to the deadline to see if we need an upgrade there. If he can remain around league average, we'll probably stick with him and hope that one of our prospects is ready to take over next year. If Hiura continues to hit well vs RHP and McCutchen remembers that he's supposed to be good vs LHP, then we could be above league average at DH, but those are big "ifs."

I think Stearns will probably find a way to bring in someone to help out. The most logical places are CF and/or DH. With our lack of resources, I just expect someone more along the lines of Josh Bell and not JD Martinez.

[wntrtxn21]

I can't see putting Yelich at lead off over Wong. KW has a higher BA-OBP-OPS than Yelich. Neither is good, but Wong is slightly better and the offense needs everything it can get. When Adames and Narvaez come back Yelich could be moved to 8th in the order where there is no pressure (I know there is zero chance CC does it). Not perfect but: Wong (2B) - Urias (3B) - Adames (SS) - Tellez (1B) - Renfroe (RF) - Narvaez (C) - Taylor (CF) - Yelich (LF) - McCutchon (DH). If McCutchon keeps hitting like the last two games, he could move up. When Brosseau comes back I'd like to see him get some time at DH and 3B (Urias/Adames to DH or resting). It can't be any worse. 

[Brewcrew82]

10 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

From a Talent/Prestige perspective they do not. But results-wise; yes they do. In fact heading into last nights game their staff had allowed fewer runs on the season than Milwaukee.

Nope, not even from a results perspective, unless you're going to try the runs per game argument which doesn't measure pitching but is rather a combination of pitching and defense. By every important metric that actually measures pitching quality (WAR, FIP, xFIP, K/9), the Brewers have the second best pitching staff in baseball behind the Yankees, while the Cardinals' pitching staff is mirred in the mid 20's. 

[Robocaller]

11 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Outside of possibly three or four players every other player has been a disappointment so far offensively: Urias, Wong, Yelich, Taylor, Cain, Hiura, etc.

Clearly there are no hitters in the minor leagues coming to the rescue this year; and the trade deadline is far away; thus the only solution is for the aforementioned players currently on the roster to hit better. 
 

Maybe those players are incapable of finding another gear offensively and they simply built a flawed roster where excellent pitching performances are wasted on a nightly basis. 

Urias OPS+ 101, Wong 99. Yelich 91. Taylor 92. Cain 28. Hiura 108.

Cain has been abysmal. Yelich only slightly worse than last year. The other guys showing normal fluctuation and being in a year where offense is down all over.