2022 MLB Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[CheeseheadInQC]

17 minutes ago, narwhalattack said:

While I would like for the Brewers to invest more draft capital on pitchers, by the time they draft a lot of the available pitchers are either high school kids who’ll never sign, relief pitchers, or back end of the rotation pitchers who I think not many people would be pleased about. 

It is also a matter of opportunity. There are a lot more ACL hitters who deserve shots in Carolina than pitchers.

Take some shots on guys you think have some upside like they did with the JUCO pair last year.

[Playing Catch]

4 minutes ago, patrickgpe said:

I love it when people complain about "reaches". Trust me the brewers weren't intentionally trying to mess this pick up. They clearly love this kid and didn't think he would last much longer. It really dones't matter if he was or wasn't on the MLB Pipeline top 500 once he is signed and gets going. 

Definitely. If anything, I think it often exposes MLB pipeline's "scouting service," which is really about providing entertainment, as is the draft show on MLB network. It allows us to nerd-out and dream on the next diamond-in-the-rough, or the next Corey Seager. As many have also mentioned over the years, "ranking" is also far inferior to "tiering" and especially after the first 50 picks or so.

 

[nate82]

Just now, brewers888 said:

They do have a top 500 so its pretty hard to believe no one knew who this guy was.  

And there is no scouting reports normally on those past 200+ normally.  When it goes up to 500 it is just a list and usually just a list of who scouts visited and that is about it.  

[beekay414]

Mind you, I have no problem with the individual picks. I hope nothing but the best for these kids both for their sake and our organization's sake. I'm just not a fan of the all contact+speed philosophy. Would like a blend of hitting, not just loaded up on one style. Maybe they'll use the international market to find the toolsy types, which I'm fine with, but, as I've stated before, I feel like this is just an overcorrection for the years of bombing on the development of 40/45 hit grade power types. 

[KeithStone53151]

8 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Mind you, I have no problem with the individual picks. I hope nothing but the best for these kids both for their sake and our organization's sake. I'm just not a fan of the all contact+speed philosophy. Would like a blend of hitting, not just loaded up on one style. Maybe they'll use the international market to find the toolsy types, which I'm fine with, but, as I've stated before, I feel like this is just an overcorrection for the years of bombing on the development of 40/45 hit grade power types. 

This isn't the best example, but Hiura was drafted more as a contact bat and developed big time power while the contact kinda went away for some reason. But a guy who is a contact hitter now can grow/develop power. We're also in a great position where if MLB messes with the ball again, we'll have a room full of 15 hr guys starting to hit 30 hr.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Like that they are starting to hit pitching these last few rounds.

[brewers888]

I am totally against drafting what is considered high floor types in the early rounds. It should be  all upside early on and they can go with the lesser upside guys later. The second round pitcher whose name I refuse to even try to spell is the type of high upside talent that we need more of.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 minute ago, brewers888 said:

I am totally against drafting what is considered high floor types in the early rounds. It should be  all upside early on and they can go with the lesser upside guys later. The second round pitcher whose name I refuse to even try to spell is the type of high upside talent that we need more of.

I repeat my question. What is the point of drafting for floor late when the high floor guys with decent ceilings usually go early?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

I am totally against drafting what is considered high floor types in the early rounds. It should be  all upside early on and they can go with the lesser upside guys later. The second round pitcher whose name I refuse to even try to spell is the type of high upside talent that we need more of.

Typically guys with a high ceiling/upside also have a very low floor. Jake Gatewood comes to mind. Sometimes you just need to draft guys who are solid ballplayers. Not every guy you draft in the top 5 rounds needs to have 35 HR, 100 RBI upside. That ceiling doesn't matter if they never make it out of Biloxi.

[brewers888]

2 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

This isn't the best example, but Hiura was drafted more as a contact bat and developed big time power while the contact kinda went away for some reason. But a guy who is a contact hitter now can grow/develop power. We're also in a great position where if MLB messes with the ball again, we'll have a room full of 15 hr guys starting to hit 30 hr.

Its much harder to project power in these smaller players. At least with a guy like Garrett Mitchell you can see the power upside but with these small middle infield types particularly the Canadian kid who is both small and light projecting power is probably going to be a big mistake.

[brewers888]

1 minute ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I repeat my question. What is the point of drafting for floor late when the high floor guys with decent ceilings usually go early?

I don't see high ceilings with any of the middle infielders. The upside looks great with the pitchers and the power hitting catcher but I don't see enough potential with these middle infielders.

[beekay414]

1 minute ago, KeithStone53151 said:

This isn't the best example, but Hiura was drafted more as a contact bat and developed big time power while the contact kinda went away for some reason. But a guy who is a contact hitter now can grow/develop power. We're also in a great position where if MLB messes with the ball again, we'll have a room full of 15 hr guys starting to hit 30 hr.

I understand how development works. I have no problem taking contact orientated guys since we're absolutely putrid at developing contact. I do, however, have a problem with only taking contact orientated guys. You can overcorrect in a single draft class, fine, but, at some point, you've got to balance your system. This is just reacting to our inability to develop bats so we feel the need to replenish the system with guys that can hit, regardless of power, because of it.

They're predictable, now, at least. Contact through the draft and tools through IFA. LIS in a prior post, they probably think that the power will play up because of AmFam being so hitter friendly. My only issue is, we can say that you can develop power but we haven't shown it with these contact guys. None of Turang, Mitchell, Frelick or Black have hit for any semblance of power. Mitchell's got the highest career MiLB ISO of the bunch but, even then, he has 14 xbh in 258 ABs above A ball.

[beekay414]

2 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Its much harder to project power in these smaller players. At least with a guy like Garrett Mitchell you can see the power upside but with these small middle infield types particularly the Canadian kid who is both small and light projecting power is probably going to be a big mistake.

There is no power upside with Mitchell unless we change his bat path. He might luck into a 20 HR season hitting wall scrapers but his bat path is allergic to HRs.

[brewers888]

2 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Typically guys with a high ceiling/upside also have a very low floor. Jake Gatewood comes to mind. Sometimes you just need to draft guys who are solid ballplayers. Not every guy you draft in the top 5 rounds needs to have 35 HR, 100 RBI upside. That ceiling doesn't matter if they never make it out of Biloxi.

The first round is too early to go with the profile that we did. I will root for the kid as well as the other slappy middle infielders we selected but I would be shocked if any of them ever pan out.

[brewers888]

2 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

There is no power upside with Mitchell unless we change his bat path. He might luck into a 20 HR season hitting wall scrapers but his bat path is allergic to HRs.

He supposedly showed big power in batting practice in college and at least has the physical build where you can see potential power but I agree expecting power in any player that hasn't consistently shown it in games is pretty risky.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

5 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

The first round is too early to go with the profile that we did. I will root for the kid as well as the other slappy middle infielders we selected but I would be shocked if any of them ever pan out.

Theoretically you might have a point, but I preface that with saying that the guys making the selections know WAY more than we do about these guys. And I don't know if "shocked" is really the right way to say it, either. Granted the MLB draft is more of a crapshoot than the other pro sports, but personally I would be more disappointed if any of these top 3-4 picks don't pan out, than shocked if they do.  

[beekay414]

1 minute ago, brewers888 said:

He supposedly showed big power in batting practice in college and at least has the physical build where you can see potential power but I agree expecting power in any player that hasn't consistently shown it in games is pretty risky.

He's got raw power but his in-game power is hindered by his flat swing. He's pretty much on top of everything. Just look at his career groundball rates (hint, he gets less lift on contact than Turang).

[beekay414]

If we had shown any ability to develop power with these types, I'd be more comfortable with taking them. We simply haven't shown that we can develop power any more than we showed we couldn't develop contact. We've pretty much solely been drafting contact+speed so it feels like we plan on playing 80s baseball more than modern day. They probably feel like they can pay for cheap power on the market. I see what they are doing but, man, it hinders my excitement. 

[beekay414]

Like that profile for 3B.

[NBBrewFan]

20 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

They're predictable, now, at least. Contact through the draft and tools through IFA. LIS in a prior post, they probably think that the power will play up because of AmFam being so hitter friendly. My only issue is, we can say that you can develop power but we haven't shown it with these contact guys. None of Turang, Mitchell, Frelick or Black have hit for any semblance of power. Mitchell's got the highest career MiLB ISO of the bunch but, even then, he has 14 xbh in 258 ABs above A ball.

My concern is that the IFA market is skewed towards signing kids at 15/16 with so little data that there is just much more risk and noise in getting projections correct.  

[CheeseheadInQC]

It’s a trade off. A guy like Peyton Graham would give you more power potential but also already has a worse than 2:1 K:BB ratio.

Being able to get to the power as a pro is important. Wes Clarke led the SEC in home runs. Tristan Peters had 6 home runs in the MVC. Their ISOs at Wisconsin are basically identical.

[homer]

7 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

If we had shown any ability to develop power with these types, I'd be more comfortable with taking them. We simply haven't shown that we can develop power any more than we showed we couldn't develop contact. We've pretty much solely been drafting contact+speed so it feels like we plan on playing 80s baseball more than modern day. They probably feel like they can pay for cheap power on the market. I see what they are doing but, man, it hinders my excitement. 

Home runs are way down this year I believe. Maybe they expect the "dead ball" era to continue and are placing a priority on contact and on-base skills.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

6 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Like that profile for 3B.

Metzinger was the reason Bilelas played more 1B in 2021. He's a very good defender. I agree, nice pickup. 

[beekay414]

2 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

My concern is that the IFA market is skewed towards signing kids at 15/16 with so little data that there is just much more risk and noise in getting projections correct.  

Sure but that's why it's more leaned on for tools and projections. Lot of IFA guys bomb because of it but I see what they are doing for the most part.

[beekay414]

2 minutes ago, homer said:

Home runs are way down this year I believe. Maybe they expect the "dead ball" era to continue and are placing a priority on contact and on-base skills.

Possibly. We'll see. They've definitely been trying to draft guys that either walk more than they K or have about a 1/1 K/BB ratio.