2022 MLB Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[sveumrules]

6 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Out of curiosity, what is that? They seem like completely opposite ends of the spectrum. 

Yeah, Corey Ray was at 60 K / 24 BB his draft year. The red flags were always there with his approach.

Brown posted 28 K / 39 BB his draft year. Two completely different hitters.

[markedman5]

 

[Neazy32]

14 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

That's what a lot of posters said when I criticized the Corey Ray selection, while they thought he was the next great thing. He goes down as the biggest bust in franchise history. My issue with Brown is the same as with Ray.

its not that hard to predict a bust in the mlb draft because most of them do....why is your issue with Brown the same as Ray?? Ray cant stay healthy, hasnt developed, was always a strikeout guy could go on and on with him....he was raw and you dream on the potential..didnt happen... Brown has a chance lets see what happens when he gets to pro ball

[Neazy32]

6 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, Corey Ray was at 60 K / 24 BB his draft year. The red flags were always there with his approach.

Brown posted 28 K / 39 BB his draft year. Two completely different hitters.

thank you...there different players...lets see what Brown can do

[Never Outhustled]

On 7/20/2022 at 2:39 PM, sveumrules said:

Yeah, Corey Ray was at 60 K / 24 BB his draft year. The red flags were always there with his approach.

Brown posted 28 K / 39 BB his draft year. Two completely different hitters.

True, but the same in that they simply weren't as productive as players are traditionally when selected in round 1. 

 

Way too much obsession with how a player gets out, instead of how often a player get out, or the total bases gained when reaching base. The things that amass OPS. The Brewers don't score enough because they don't have a high enough OPS.

 

Ryan Braun had 55 more Ks than walks in college. Should we have passed on him?

[CheeseheadInQC]

57 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

True, but the same in that they simply weren't as productive as players are traditionally when selected in round 1. 

 

Way too much obsession with how a player gets out, instead of how often a player get out, or the total bases gained when reaching base. The things that amass OPS. The Brewers don't avoid enough because they don't have a high enough OPS.

 

Ryan Braun had 55 more Ks than walks in college. Should we have passed on him?

Guessing you wanted Wagner or Melendez then? Gilbert had a little separation, but otherwise most of the other college hitters taken around that area aren't that much different than Brown, especially when you account for defensive value.

[Robocaller]

3 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

Ryan Braun had 55 more Ks than walks in college. Should we have passed on him?

His Junior (draft) year he had 33 BB and 39SO. And he raked.

[Jim Goulart]

Monday 7/18:

Via WSSP's "Big Show": Patrick Ebert from D1Baseball.com (and one of Brewerfan's founding fathers, so to speak) discusses Day One (first three picks) of the Brewers draft

[Never Outhustled]

8 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Guessing you wanted Wagner or Melendez then? Gilbert had a little separation, but otherwise most of the other college hitters taken around that area aren't that much different than Brown, especially when you account for defensive value.

Yes, Wagner should have been the obvious selection, if we weren't searching for increased ground outs. 

[Jim Goulart]

 

[Spencer Michaelis]

22 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

I'm confused by this.  To reduce his strikeout numbers he stopped chasing, but that lead to a power drop.  To me chasing means balls out of the strike zone. What was he chasing?

There are plenty of cases where a player may get *too* patient. Being willing and working to take more pitches, but still making quick and concise swing decisions on pitches you can do damage on is a tough balance to find. I don't know for certain, but I'd imagine there's often a dip in power when players try to make that adjustment. Hopefully he can find that balance as he gets into pro ball and get back to doing some damage, along with the decreased chase rate. 

[NBBrewFan]

1 hour ago, Smichaelis9 said:

There are plenty of cases where a player may get *too* patient. Being willing and working to take more pitches, but still making quick and concise swing decisions on pitches you can do damage on is a tough balance to find. I don't know for certain, but I'd imagine there's often a dip in power when players try to make that adjustment. Hopefully he can find that balance as he gets into pro ball and get back to doing some damage, along with the decreased chase rate. 

Thanks.  I don't know the exact time it takes a pitch to reach the plate, but it's likely to be milliseconds given 80-95 MPH (quick google search says 375-400 milliseconds).  So the decision making time is extremely short so I can see where trying to amend your approach could effect your timing enough to have an impact on your SLG and overall performance when you do make a decision to swing and where to swing.  I just hope that there isn't an overall strategy to tinker with every prospects approach as we are already going through 2+ years of huge drops in production at the MLB level with Yelich and Hiura.  While there is a cryptic comment from Keith Law that the Brewers have tinkered with Hiura's approach, it's not clear if the kneecap injury, back injury, or a combination of everything is underlying Yelich's drop (but his last 900PA have been the worst of his career).  I recall the Brewers winning teams of the 1980's and I don't recall similar approaches by those batters.  In fact I think most of baseball history has been a myriad of approaches to hitting while only recently with the launch angle has an attempt to homogenize players batting approach become common. It would be great if we actually see an improvement in batters, but it seems that they keep getting worse.

[Jim Goulart]

Tod Johnson interview, follow the initial link:

 

[markedman5]

 

[markedman5]

Saved some money

 

[StearnsFTW]

550K under is no joke. 

[brewmann04]

They might be able to use that extra cash to entice another Draft pick 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I thought maybe he would sign for underslot but $550k is more than I expected.  Now to go after some of the HS kids in the later rounds.

[titletownking]

He later corrected this as well to 2.05 million so 650K underslot.

[Neazy32]

wow thats a good chunk of money saved....lets go make some moves now!!!

Also found it interesting hes there first 1st round pick in school history....Coastal Carolina is a good baseball school

[Neazy32]

we also drafted 3 seniors and a 3 year junior college guy who is 23... have to believe those will all be way under slot as well...and i cant imagine there 3rd round pick O'Rae being over slot at all as he was drafted way higher then expected...the only players i could see us going over for in the top 10 rounds are the 9th rounder Tayden Hall and possibly the 2nd round JUCO pitcher but im guessing it will be close to slot

[Never Outhustled]

On 7/20/2022 at 2:39 PM, sveumrules said:

Yeah, Corey Ray was at 60 K / 24 BB his draft year. The red flags were always there with his approach.

Brown posted 28 K / 39 BB his draft year. Two completely different hitters.

No, that was his sophomore year. Ray was 36 BB/41 K his draft year. Not a red flag, but his 933 OPS should have been a huge red flag.

 

Brown is a better prospect than Ray ever was, but neither should have been our selection.

Brown was drafted largely because of his willingness to sign well underslot.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, Never Outhustled said:

No, that was his sophomore year. Ray was 36 BB/41 K his draft year. Not a red flag, but his 933 OPS should have been a huge red flag.

 

Brown is a better prospect than Ray ever was, but neither should have been our selection.

Brown was drafted largely because of his willingness to sign well underslot.

I think you overestimate the average college OPS for guys drafted as shortstops. If you take the best performing college first round picks at the position since 2011 when baseball reference college stats start, Brown would be in the top half. Anyone with a 1.100 OPS drafted as a shortstop is an outlier, at least among guys who have found some measure of MLB success.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I think it's also clear that the most recent season's stats are only part of the picture. Of course there are scouting reports, but the Brewers seem to look on a longer timeframe and several prominent recent picks were coming off of disappointing years and/or had good looks in the Cape, etc.  Sometimes that works out, but then there are always the Hayden Cantrelle picks where perhaps the most recent numbers really did tell the real story.  

It was certainly true that Corey Ray was viewed as a toolsy prospect with a questionable hit tool who would need some development time...more a project that one might have expected of a top 5 college bat. I didn't appreciate that at the time of the pick. For a stretch in AA I though maybe he had some it figured out, but he also seemed to have bad injury luck.

It kind of seems like this draft class is an explicit response (for better or worse) to the travails of some of these previous failed prospects.  It sure seems like they have given up the notion of drafting a 35 or 40 hit tool with batting practice power in the hopes that they'll figure out contact. We've gone through so many of these guys over the years; at least Brinson, Diaz and Harrison were used as trade bait. (Noting of course that the Brewers didn't draft either Brinson or Diaz.)  I would not be surprised to learn that this is a result of the modeling types crunching numbers in the basement at Miller Park.  

[Jenkins5]

Maybe this is somewhere in the 16 pages but interesting write up on O’Rae. Very similar trend of hitter/player they like. Lives on base, doesn’t strike out, great speed. Weird he is considered maybe the best prospect out of Canada this year but BA left him out of top 500.