2022 MLB Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[DuWayne Steurer]

8 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Floor? A right-handed Josh Hader.

that would be ceiling. and that's being mighty ambitious.

[homer]

6 minutes ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

that would be ceiling. and that's being mighty ambitious.

If that is his floor, I'd really like to know what his ceiling is.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

1 hour ago, JackNicholson1974 said:

Hey Mods. If you want to keep this forum the top quality it has proven to be, you may want to be proactive and do something about the same 2-3 posters who are in every single thread filling up 9 pages of pessimism over and over again.  And pessimism is really an understatement.  I’m all for being skeptical from time to time, but this thread just takes the cake.  I just wanted some honest knowledgeable recaps of the picks and instead I had to endure hot garbage from a couple of guys. I am sure there will be 10 more pages of it today as well. Is there a block button?  Thanks.

There is an ignore button and I highly recommend you use it.  Just won't even show posts of the user posts you don't want to see.  It works great except for users that quote and respond to them.  Honestly. If we all just stop responding to the trolls, they will go away on their own.  They are just looking for attention.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, Never Outhustled said:

Misiorowski is ultra exciting. I wouldn't be excited for Moore in the 10th round.

The thing with Moore is, before the rough junior year, he led SEC middle infielders in home runs and looked like a potential first round pick. If you think you know what went wrong and how to fix it, he could be a good value. If not, it’s a roll of the dice.

[LouisEly]

14 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Rangers lost a lot of picks due to free agent signings... wonder if Rocker took a below-slot deal given that it's a $7.59M slot value.  I'm sure the Rangers would love to have another $1M-$1.5M to entice some HS guys in later rounds.

John Heyman is reporting that Rocker had agreed to a $5.2M signing bonus, giving the Rangers an extra $2.3M in bonus pool to work with.  Expect some HS picks from them in the later rounds.

[LouisEly]

9 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

Not crazy about this pick Two guys drafted as Ss who possible best spot is Second base 

Just like 95% of pitchers are best out of the bullpen, 95% of middle infielders are best at 2B.  It's a meaningless comment, and if you believe that, then only about two players in every draft have the ability to stick at SS.

[Never Outhustled]

2 hours ago, Lathund said:

I didn't follow the draft last night, but checked it out this morning. And once I saw that the Brewers didn't draft someone who was unathletic enough to only be able to play 1B/DH already at the age of 18-21, I knew exactly what this thread would look like. And I wasn't disappointed. Or I mean, I was disappointed, but I got what I expected. 

As for the draft itself, I don't follow College/HS baseball at all so hard to comment on the individual picks really. But I like that the Brewers are targetting hitters with good swing/take decisions (Tyler Black from last year is another great example), as that's both a skill that projects well and is less coachable or likely to grow significantly over time compared to something like HR power.

As for the inevitable "Up the middle vs corner" debate every year: Most drafted players are SS/CF/C as that's where the best athletes end up on College and (especially) HS teams. So the 1B types are usually there because they aren't very good athletes, which limits their upside a ton, they're already 2-tool players without any versatility, and need those tools to translate fully to not be busts. Sometimes though, they're just such good hitters that those downsides don't matter. Thing is though, when someone is a "sure thing" like that, they end up 1st overall like Spencer Torkelson or 3rd like Andrew Vaughn to take a couple recent examples. They're a very different proposition from the 3B/1B/DH types available later on. 

It's like the logic is backwards; the best hitting positions on a MLB team tends to be the corner spots and DH. Therefore, some people want to draft corner guys to get better hitters. But that's not how it works. 

Sadly, there are a few poster like that, disagreeing with every move the team makes and pining for the Doug Melvin days. They'd take issue with Stearns if he said the sky was blue and water is wet. And, tellingly, their issue wouldn't even be that technically the sky isn't blue (It's purple, we just see it as blue) and water isn't wet (It makes other things wet), that's not surface level enough for them, but it'd be the need to reflexively disagree with everything. 

The last several years, with 4 straight playoff appearances, has been the most successful stretch for this team in almost 40 years (Or ever), and yet somehow that has come about despite every move Stearns makes being the wrong one and Counsell being genetically incapable of not starting every light-hitting utility player on his roster because they remind him of himself, and also his inability to view Keston Hiura's splits on baseball reference. I admire the tenacity of these posters, if not the lacking self-reflection, to be wrong for years and still persist in thinking you're absolutely right. 

And no, it doesn't mean you have to automatically love every single move the team makes, even the best front offices don't bat 1.000, far from it. But can we just discuss things from the perspective that Stearns and the rest of the front office aren't morons, that they have a reason for doing what they're doing, and data to back that up? That doesn't mean they'll make the right decision still, but more that trying to spot the logic behind, say, signing Wade Miley makes for a more productive debate than just citing his last-season poor ERA and calling Stearns a moron for not knowing that stat, or for not realising that a high ERA is bad.

Which brings me to my last point. Which relates to the crapshoot nature of the draft, or even the randomness and uncertainty involved in decisions at the MLB level. And therefore, some humility. None of us know how any of the guys drafted beyond the first few picks (And not really them either, even if we can be more certain) will turn out, we all make guesses. Some qualified, some less so, but all of them uncertain. When dealing with such uncertainty, only a fool is certain. So I'd take any definitive statements on any draft picks future with a truckload of salt, same for the people making those statements. 

I see absolutely no questioning the front offices moves related to pitching. We've been winning with the best pitching in franchise history. However, we haven't been to the WS because we have a mediocre offense in our best recent years. It would be disingenuous not to question moves relating to the offense.

 

We need to raise our MLB OPS. Are we drafting players who will do that? It's worthy of discussion. 

[KeithStone53151]

44 minutes ago, homer said:

I think that's what the Dodgers theory is. Draft for hard contact and assume the power will come later.

Right. You can say this guy has a similar profile to Turang, but he also has a similar profile to gavin lux...who is having a very solid season for the Dodgers at age 24 and can definitely still add some power to his game. I'd be pretty happy if we drafted a future gavin lux yesterday.

[Playing Catch]

Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs is apparently "over the moon," for the Brewers first day of the draft...

 

Fangraphs 2022 Day 1 Recap

[KeithStone53151]

I suspect Eric Brown would be an under slot signing. Does anyone have a pulse on whether the other 2 guys would be under or over slot guys? If under, we might be able to entice a higher caliber player with a bigger bonus with a pick today.

[homer]

1 minute ago, Playing Catch said:

Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs is apparently "over the moon," for the Brewers first day of the draft...

 

Fangraphs 2022 Day 1 Recap

Quote

I’m over the moon for the Brewers’ first day.

Correct

[LouisEly]

7 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

I see absolutely no questioning the front offices moves related to pitching. We've been winning with the best pitching in franchise history. However, we haven't been to the WS because we have a mediocre offense in our best recent years. It would be disingenuous not to question moves relating to the offense.

 

We need to raise our MLB OPS. Are we drafting players who will do that? It's worthy of discussion. 

Thank you.  These are the types of comments I expect to see that question drafting, not hot takes based on one sentence in a scouting report.

They flipped three prospect bats that so far have done nothing at the ML level for Yelich which initially worked out as well as it possibly could have; the decision to extend him after the injury is certainly questionable, but it was a roll of the dice to keep one of the best offensive players in the game.  They flipped a bat-first prospect with K tendencies who was a few years off to get a bigger offensive threat for the ML team in Renfroe.  They flipped a couple of middling pitchers for a bat-first 1B.  They flipped a bullpen arm and an upside pitcher with a long injury history for one of the better offensive SS in the game.

It's not just drafting that they've been doing to try to improve the offense.  And I don't think that some have realized the effect that the all of the pitching labs and deadening of the ball have made on offense league-wise. 

[brewers888]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Crazy notion, the brewers help these players add power to their game. It's not often you get a 5 tool player at pick 27, but you can certainly help players develop and improve

You can see the untapped power in a guy like Garrett Mitchell who completely looks the part but its really stretching to see it in guys like these two.

[Playing Catch]

I, too, wondered at first if Brown could be an under-slot guy. But I've come around to think that that won't be the case. I would predict that even if they did save $50-100K from his signing, I'd bet it goes to Misiorowski.

[LouisEly]

6 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I suspect Eric Brown would be an under slot signing. Does anyone have a pulse on whether the other 2 guys would be under or over slot guys? If under, we might be able to entice a higher caliber player with a bigger bonus with a pick today.

Misiorowski might also want more than slot value.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 minute ago, brewers888 said:

You can see the untapped power in a guy like Garrett Mitchell who completely looks the part but its really stretching to see it in guys like these two.

Again, you only have to look back one season to see it with Moore.

[Playing Catch]

4 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

You can see the untapped power in a guy like Garrett Mitchell who completely looks the part but its really stretching to see it in guys like these two.

Maybe. It kind of depends on what "untapped power" means. I would say that with his current profile, Brown probably exhibits better "power potential" than Luis Urias did at a similar age. Does 23 HRs represent the same power as Tellez? Not at all, but that's where the positional comparisons are important.

[homer]

It might just be coincidence but it feels like the Brewers are drafting for high floor and then signing internationally for ceiling. I could be wrong, but Cardinals seem to draft for high floor every year and it works well for them...then they fill in holes with free agents/trades

[Playing Catch]

I read once somewhere that data-driven teams like to have a lot of data. Therefore, they tend to like more established players (even AAAA players or waiver-wire guys).

Not to get off-topic, and without any real knowledge of the in and outs of the international sphere, I think they were always subject to being the smallest fish in the biggest pond until more recent years when MLB placed international spending limits on teams. That rule change has put a modicum of control on teams like the Dodgers or Braves (the latter of whom was penalized for breaking that limit). In terms of their Venezuelan preference of late, I suspect they were simply trying to take advantage of a less saturated scouting area in order to develop relationships rather than fight and claw in the oversaturated Dominican.

To get back to your question, Jackson Chourio was paid a lot of money to sign with the Brewers. Had there been an international draft, he very well may have been picked before the Brewers had a chance at him. The Brewers also seem to go for quantity over quality (Chourio aside) in the international market. Just take as many 16-year old athletes you can and go from there.

[NBBrewFan]

56 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

I see absolutely no questioning the front offices moves related to pitching. We've been winning with the best pitching in franchise history. However, we haven't been to the WS because we have a mediocre offense in our best recent years. It would be disingenuous not to question moves relating to the offense.

 

We need to raise our MLB OPS. Are we drafting players who will do that? It's worthy of discussion. 

Well it's hard to project whether these guys will develop any power.  it's harder for 17/18 YO than 21/22 YO as they have more physical development to go through.  Look at the Holliday kid.  If I had to guess I'd say he was 15. There's a lot of maturity to an adult body to occur there and he could remain thin and lanky or he could put on a lot of lean muscle.  His dad was a big dude, but he also probably had some chemical assistance.  Very hard to predict where he ends up.  Turang was a lanky (i.e. skinny kid) and he hasn't really shown any evidence of a SLG as his ISO is very very low so the hope he will be provide enough S to get his OBP up is very questionable at this stage.  Wiemer has the power potential, but he was older when selected so his capabilities were clearer.  I definitely prefer going for players who can actually hit the ball enough that they won't disappear as they climb up the levels (no more Victor Roaches or Monte Harrison), but simply drafting athletes has been a losing formula for years. 

[Lathund]

8 minutes ago, homer said:

It might just be coincidence but it feels like the Brewers are drafting for high floor and then signing internationally for ceiling. I could be wrong, but Cardinals seem to draft for high floor every year and it works well for them...then they fill in holes with free agents/trades

I agree, I don't think it's coincidence really, and probably is largely a product of what is available. With the international signings you're talking 16 year old (Or 14-15 when the deals are agreed in many cases) kids with very little experience and data to go on. And at that age, people are very far from fully formed physically, intellectually and emotionally. There just isn't such a concept as a "safe" pick, so might as well aim for high potential regardless. Whereas in the draft, there is. Relatively speaking anyway. For many college players there is almost as much data available (Both more traditional and tracking stuff like Statcast or the various slo-mo camera stuff) as there are for major leaguers. And depending on where they played, they will have played some pretty good opposition. So you are, in a sense, able to draft players who have essentially already proven themselves in A-ball. That will remove a *lot* of the error bars on the projections, the tradeoff of course being that it'll usually be on both ends of it.

 

[beekay414]

Not really a fan of the current draft philosophy of taking floor over ceiling bats. I feel like it's an overcorrection from the previous regimes philosophy and our inability to develop those types with 40/45 hit/55 power tools. Feels like we're drafting a ton of gap power guys with hopes that the ballpark will play more than their tools, if they get to AFF. Think we need a balance and should look into taking the ceiling bat when the opportunity arises.

Turang is likely a utility infielder due to the lack of loud contact in his bat and his FB rate being so low. Mitchell's bat path is going to keep him from hitting a ton of HRs despite the loud contact. Frelick is a gap-to-gap power type, even with swing lift. Black's a gap-to-gap guy as well. Feel like Moore and Brown are similar types. 

We definitely have a type now. We'll see how it plays out.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, homer said:

If that is his floor, I'd really like to know what his ceiling is.

Michaelangelo’s Sistine Chapel.

[MVP2110]

It is pretty fascinating to see the variance on the ratings for the Brewers picks. As mentioned previously Fangraphs seems to absolutely love their draft, but then other rating systems are much lower like the actual MLB Draft site, 

 

Fangraphs

Brown 35

Misiorowski 24

Moore 44

 

MLB Draft

Brown 63

Misiorowski 78

Moore 108

[NBBrewFan]

8 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Not really a fan of the current draft philosophy of taking floor over ceiling bats. I feel like it's an overcorrection from the previous regimes philosophy and our inability to develop those types with 40/45 hit/55 power tools. Feels like we're drafting a ton of gap power guys with hopes that the ballpark will play more than their tools, if they get to AFF. Think we need a balance and should look into taking the ceiling bat when the opportunity arises.

Turang is likely a utility infielder due to the lack of loud contact in his bat and his FB rate being so low. Mitchell's bat path is going to keep him from hitting a ton of HRs despite the loud contact. Frelick is a gap-to-gap power type, even with swing lift. Black's a gap-to-gap guy as well. Feel like Moore and Brown are similar types. 

We definitely have a type now. We'll see how it plays out.

Excellent thoughts.  I tend to be biased to swing for the fences in the first/supplemental rounds (maybe even the 2nd) with high ceiling players then play the remainder of the draft going for high floor types.  I also hate the moving en masse from one type to another as there is never enough data that 1 approach should be abandoned while another should be adopted completely.  We definitely align with the need to balance the different "types" of players.