2022 MLB Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[CheeseheadInQC]

Just now, beekay414 said:

Possibly. We'll see. They've definitely been trying to draft guys that either walk more than they K or have about a 1/1 K/BB ratio. 

Their college hitter picks walked 23 more times than they struck out last year

[CheeseheadInQC]

30 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

I don't see high ceilings with any of the middle infielders. The upside looks great with the pitchers and the power hitting catcher but I don't see enough potential with these middle infielders.

I was more talking your philosophy where you said upside early and floor late and questioning why switch to floor after most of the guys, especially hitting, with high floors and big league ceilings are already off the board.

[NBBrewFan]

18 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I preface that with saying that the guys making the selections know WAY more than we do about these guys. And I don't know if "shocked" is really the right way to say it, either. Granted the MLB draft is more of a crapshoot than the other pro sports, but personally I would be more disappointed if any of these top 3-4 picks don't pan out, than shocked if they do.  

I don't think it's a crapshoot at all. Baseball compared to Football for sure and somewhat to Basketball and Hockey has a long "development" path from draftee to player with really very little data to judge the players.  High School players are the farthest from being productive major leaguer's with the least data so it's very hard to project that development arc.  College players have more data so and are in theory farther along in their development so there should be less variance in their projection.  or College acts as a weeding out process that for High School players happens in Rookie/A/AA Ball. Most football players have had 3-4 years of competition at a high level to evaluate their talents so you've really eliminated most of the low yield types, not so in baseball. I don't think that's necessarily a crapshoot so much as being very difficult to hit at a high rate so you need some good people and processes to help push your success ahead of a coin flip.  And I absolutely believe that the Brewers scouting department is smarter than 99% of posters on websites, what concerns me is are they smarter than any other teams scouts.

[beekay414]

5 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Their college hitter picks walked 23 more times than they struck out last year

I know. Their career K/BB rates though are basically 1/1 thus why I said both.

Eric Brown
2022 - 28 K, 39 BB
Career - 75 K, 81 BB

Robert Moore
2022 - 46 K, 42 BB
Career - 112 K, 91 BB

Matt Wood
2022 - 26 K, 36 BB
Career - 63 K, 62 BB

Ben Metzinger
2022 - 45 K, 51 BB
Career - 66 K, 65 BB

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 minute ago, beekay414 said:

I know. Their career K/BB rates though are basically 1/1 thus why I said both.

Eric Brown
2022 - 28 K, 39 BB
Career - 75 K, 81 BB

Robert Moore
2022 - 46 K, 42 BB
Career - 112 K, 91 BB

Matt Wood
2022 - 26 K, 36 BB
Career - 63 K, 62 BB

Ben Metzinger
2022 - 45 K, 51 BB
Career - 66 K, 65 BB

I wasn’t disagreeing, just providing some stats on the topic

[beekay414]

Meh, throwaway senior sign pick. Obviously can't expect MLB upside with every pick but I'd avoid drafting pitchers from the Horizon League like the plague.

[Samurai Bucky]

Griffin Doersching goes to the Padres at #240.  Congrats!

[beekay414]

Another BB over K guy.

[beekay414]

 

[homer]

3 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

I don't think it's a crapshoot at all. Baseball compared to Football for sure and somewhat to Basketball and Hockey has a long "development" path from draftee to player with really very little data to judge the players.  High School players are the farthest from being productive major leaguer's with the least data so it's very hard to project that development arc.  College players have more data so and are in theory farther along in their development so there should be less variance in their projection.  or College acts as a weeding out process that for High School players happens in Rookie/A/AA Ball. Most football players have had 3-4 years of competition at a high level to evaluate their talents so you've really eliminated most of the low yield types, not so in baseball. I don't think that's necessarily a crapshoot so much as being very difficult to hit at a high rate so you need some good people and processes to help push your success ahead of a coin flip.  And I absolutely believe that the Brewers scouting department is smarter than 99% of posters on websites, what concerns me is are they smarter than any other teams scouts.

only 66% of 1st round picks even step foot on a big league diamond. I'd be curious to know how many of those are pick 15 or greater.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1219356-examining-the-percentage-of-mlb-draft-picks-that-reach-the-major-leagues

[Jopal78]

23 minutes ago, homer said:

only 66% of 1st round picks ever even step foot on a big league diamond. I'd be curious to know how many of those are pick 15 or greater.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1219356-examining-the-percentage-of-mlb-draft-picks-that-reach-the-major-leagues

The last players the Brewers took 15 or later who saw significant time in the majors: Grisham, Lawrie, Odorizzi, Jeffress. 
 

Grisham was drafted 7 years ago now and the others over a decade ago.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, patrickgpe said:

another short shortstop

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/profiles/ON/Dylan-ORae-0287596314-4521037968

According to that, he was Canada's 2022 Player of the Year?  Is that true?

If so, that's a good sign (and some poor scouting by these draft prospect rankers).

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, MVP2110 said:

The Matthew Wood pick really intrigues me if he can stick at Catcher

Hey!  I had him as one of my 5th round options.

 

[SRB]

1 hour ago, homer said:

Home runs are way down this year I believe. Maybe they expect the "dead ball" era to continue and are placing a priority on contact and on-base skills.

Timothee Chalamet to star as David Stearns in Moneyball II: Rediscovering OBP (2026)

[CheeseheadInQC]

Anyone know anything about Fitzpatrick other than tall, left-handed and has had injury issues?

[LouisEly]

Metzinger is interesting.  His upside could be a RHH Matt Carpenter (who was a 13th round pick himself, just like another certain Cardinal). 

Fitzpatrick looks like he missed time with injury this year, having only started 6 games for Rutgers, but pitched outstanding in a very small sample in the Cape Cod league - 19 IP, 11 H, 2 BB, 19 K, 0 R/ER. 

Perfect Game had some good things to say about Nate Peterson, although he is undersized for a SP. 

[Ron Theobald]

2 hours ago, brewers888 said:

Hard to believe you can pick a guy in the third round that none of the draft experts have ever heard of and what's 

If a team has found a hidden gem, they certainly are not going to call up the " experts" to let them know that a player needs to be added to their list.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Nice day 2 summary so far by McCalvy: https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/brewers-takeaways-on-day-2-of-2022-mlb-draft

[Never Outhustled]

I wish we had picked a hitter in day 1, but I like what we did in day 2. With that many high upside picks, hopefully we can find a Big Leaguer or 2.

[brewmann04]

Any guys to watch out for tomorrow for the Brewers? 

[CheeseheadInQC]

17 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

Any guys to watch out for tomorrow for the Brewers? 

Half joking, but as a 20th round, no more overslot guys who might sign, pick, Manhattan fifth year senior catcher Matt Padre walked 49 times and struck out 13 last season.

 I am hoping they have saved enough to snag an overslot prep arm or two.

[nate82]

Brewers can also do a draft and follow on HS players after the 10th round. The player has to goto a JUCO and then would be given the option to sign with the team that drafted them previously or to reenter into the draft.  

[Platoon Power]

49 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Half joking, but as a 20th round, no more overslot guys who might sign, pick, Manhattan fifth year senior catcher Matt Padre walked 49 times and struck out 13 last season.

 I am hoping they have saved enough to snag an overslot prep arm or two.

What's the general consensus on the Brewers draft?  How many picks do we think are going to sign for under slot, for slot and over slot? 

 

[patrickgpe]

5 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Metzinger was the reason Bilelas played more 1B in 2021. He's a very good defender. I agree, nice pickup. 

I love this pick. I have been comlaining for years that the seem to focus on players up the middle and tall power pitchers. I was upset that they traded Binelas and am happy that they at least used a high pick on an advanced 3rd base prospect. 

[Eye Black]

46 minutes ago, Platoon Power said:

What's the general consensus on the Brewers draft?  How many picks do we think are going to sign for under slot, for slot and over slot? 

 

I think most of their day one picks are going to sign near slot, but that they saved some money in day two that will be used to go over slot on a couple of players yet to be drafted. 

Also, one thing to keep in mind is the rule changes surrounding undrafted free agents. There is no longer a spending limit on what you can offer UDFAs. With only 20 rounds, any draft eligible player not selected is now able to sign for up to $125,000 without it impacting the signing team. Any amount over $125,000 on an individual player goes against the team’s bonus pool. 

So now teams can use the money saved in the first ten rounds not only on draftees in rounds 11-20, but also as a way to commit more financial resources toward UDFAs. You can take some big chances in rounds 11-20, and if it doesn’t work out you can pivot to make a run at some of the best UDFAs.