Hiura Slighted and Demoted; Adames hitting #2 with a .289 OBP

[rickh150]

Adames has hit in the clutch well this year. With people on base, with two outs, I’ll give him that. 

[rickh150]

22 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Put Hiura second and watch Yelich, Keston, and Tellez be completely taken out of the game in later innings as opposing managers exploit their .689, .491, and .634 OPSes against LHP.

It would be ridiculously easy to neutralize the top of the Brewers order and every manager would do it.

Well, that’s assuming a lot. I’d put Renfroe at 3 almost daily now. I don’t think Yelich is our best lead off hitter against lefties either. Brosseau would be intriguing.

[TheeAirbender]

3 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Another. You explain it to me with stats this year, please. 

Okay.

Hiura - 81 DRC+, 43%K rate, 412 babip (Over 500 vs RHP!) 

Adames - 95 DRC+, 27%K rate, 233 babip. 

If you can't see the difference in quality of hitters and their luck this year then there is nothing to discuss.

[rickh150]

29 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Just come out and say it! You like Hiura and wished he played everyday.  

It's fine, that's part of being a fan liking certain players better than others, and imagining what could be/have been.

However, don't post  non-sense suggesting there isn't a difference between Adames and Hiura. First of all, Hiura without question is a butcher in the field, to the point they've moved him to LF to minimize the times they have to count on his defense. Adames has nearly twice as many at bats as Hiura, nobody knows if Hiura could keep up his numbers playing everyday. Probably not since he doesn't hit lefties, and he hasn't really hit with any consistency since his rookie year and the last couple weeks of June 2022. 

As for giving Hiura "some rope": I've been following the Brewers since the late 1980s and this is the longest stretch of competitive baseball they've had since that time. The Brewers have given him nearly 1000 plate appearances to establish himself as a regular and he has failed to do so. Moreover, those 1000 plate appearances have been for teams that went to the playoffs including a couple of division winners. 

Pro-sports are a cut throat business, and the Brewers are trying to win as many games as they can right now. Maybe it seems unfair that Hiura was drafted by the Brewers instead of say the Marlins where they could plug him in everyday no matter what because there was no expectation on the team to win many games. But after nearly 1000 plate appearances its ridiculous to suggest Milwaukee hasn't given him a fair shot. For what it's worth I hoped he'd be the next middle of the order slugger like Ryan Braun, but sure doesn't look like that's going to happen. 

 

Yeah, can’t have those .800 plus OPS guys around taking at bats away from real hitters or the third catcher.

[rickh150]

2 minutes ago, TheeAirbender said:

Okay.

Hiura - 81 DRC+, 43%K rate, 412 babip (Over 500 vs RHP!) 

Adames - 95 DRC+, 27%K rate, 233 babip. 

If you can't see the difference in quality of hitters and their luck this year then there is nothing to discuss.

OPS and OBP neutralize those stats somewhat.  Hiura has a small sample size too, and that goes both ways. More regular opportunities would possibly bring up his low marks. He is hitting well in Nashville too.

[patrickgpe]

20 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

When people just say “old school” or “just antiquated” without a fairly good reason, red flags go up. An explanation would be helpful.

Wouldnt everyone want higher OPS guys batting higher? Is OPS old school too? Isn’t that a pretty good overall stat to merit worth? I just read batting avg doesn’t matter in one post, and another said that a guy with a batting average lower than .200 should expect to get demoted. Well Adames is batting .217. Then I see “Best hitter” from someone else too. 
Adames puts ball in play a little better than Hiura, and Hiura has somewhat power stats than Adames,  They aren’t that different this year.
One hits second daily for a playoff team. The other is in Nashville. I just can’t see the logic.

MLB and especially the brewers have become very  sabermetric focused. I can't argue that OBP and OPS doesn't matter because it does. I said you want to have your better players higher in the lineup. I just always had the theory that if you took your 9 starters and picked names out of a hat, your offensive production wouldn't change much. 

[TheeAirbender]

Just now, rickh150 said:

OPS and OBP neutralize those stats somewhat.  Hiura has a small sample size too, and that goes both ways. More regular opportunities would possibly bring up his low marks. He is hitting well in Nashville too.

I dont know, from this discussion I just think you don't really know what you're talking about when it comes to evaluating players and how they end up at their statlines. Let me ask you this. What has Hiura improved on from 2020 and 2021 where he was unplayable besides "His obp and ops"?

[rickh150]

26 minutes ago, TheeAirbender said:

I dont know, from this discussion I just think you don't really know what you're talking about when it comes to evaluating players and how they end up at their statlines. Let me ask you this. What has Hiura improved on from 2020 and 2021 where he was unplayable besides "His obp and ops"?

Besides those… ha. 

Well, there is the DH. That is different, right? That is my 1, 2, and 3 reason to play him more. The 4 is that our DH spot has not done well, right? The bar isn’t high to get him more at bats. He’s a similar hitter to the last few years. Yep. Sure.

He strikes out too much. Sure. Good. He also has had some bright spots this year with HRs and BB. He’s been jerked around daily on top of it. Play Him all over the field. Bat in all these different spots. 

[Jopal78]

4 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Besides those… ha. 

Well, there is the DH. That is different, right? That is my 1, 2, and 3 reason to play him more. The 4 is that our DH spot has not done well, right? The bar isn’t high to get him more at bats. He’s a similar hitter to the last few years. Yep. Sure.

He strikes out too much. Sure. Good. He also has had some bright spots this year with HRs and BB. He’s been jerked around daily on top of it. Play Him all over the field. Bat in all these different spots. 

Give us 5 batters in MLB this year with 300+ ABs and a 43% k-rate. There are not any, that’s why he’s in AAA. 
 

It’s no different than hitting .185, it’s a ticket to the minor leagues. 

[nate82]

59 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

OPS and OBP neutralize those stats somewhat.  Hiura has a small sample size too, and that goes both ways. More regular opportunities would possibly bring up his low marks. He is hitting well in Nashville too.

Incorrect as with all of the advanced metrics that are an aggregate of everything a player does at the plate OPS and OBP are already being considered in DRC+.  So the OPS and OBP does not neutralize those stats at all as they are already being considered in them.

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Hiura should be a bit bitter, imo. How Adames is revered at #2 for what he does- hit for power and Ks at like 27% rate is similar to Hiura who has hit for power and Ks a lot. One isn’t that different than the other. One plays everyday batting 2nd. The other is in Nashville.

Adames is not similar to Hiura at all, especially with the Ks. Adames Ks 27% of the time, which is below league average but not that extreme in today's game (guys like Trout, Buxton, Story, Stanton, Schwarber, etc. all K more). Hiura, on the other hand, Ks an astronomical 44% of the time, which would be the highest K rate in the league by nearly 10% if he had the at-bats to qualify. Never before in the history of the baseball has a guy K'd that much and still managed to be a productive player...

Also, you leave out the fact that Adames is an excellent defender, whereas Hiura is.......not. Combined with his home-run hitting prowess (leads all NL SS), Adames' value becomes so much higher than Hiura's, as exemplified by his clear top 5 NL/top 10 MLB SS WAR. 

 

[GAME05]

Hiura - 81 DRC+, 43%K rate, 412 babip (Over 500 vs RHP!) 

Adames - 95 DRC+, 27%K rate, 233 babip.

 

All this says to me is Hiura has been lucky to have that kind of BABIP. That's better than Mike Trout. Conversely Adames has been unlucky. Minus a hot streak and a regression to the norm and Hiura would need to be a great defensive player to make up for it.

At least grounding out moves a guy forward.

[rickh150]

30 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Incorrect as with all of the advanced metrics that are an aggregate of everything a player does at the plate OPS and OBP are already being considered in DRC+.  So the OPS and OBP does not neutralize those stats at all as they are already being considered in them.

Goes both ways…. Just pointing out the positive with same stats.

[rickh150]

10 minutes ago, GAME05 said:

Hiura - 81 DRC+, 43%K rate, 412 babip (Over 500 vs RHP!) 

Adames - 95 DRC+, 27%K rate, 233 babip.

 

All this says to me is Hiura has been lucky to have that kind of BABIP. That's better than Mike Trout. Conversely Adames has been unlucky. Minus a hot streak and a regression to the norm and Hiura would need to be a great defensive player to make up for it.

At least grounding out moves a guy forward.

Or produces a double play. I hear you, though. Good points.

Hiura hit .381 in July, OBP 480. Slugging 714. Struck out at 31% rate. Has like a 7 game on base streak going…it doesn’t scream send him down.

[brewers888]

5 hours ago, TheeAirbender said:

Some of the Hiura opinions are wild to me. Send down Caratini in the middle of a division race to make room for him? He has been their 4th most valuable position player via fwar in only 50 games and has a 117 wrc+ at catcher. Not to mention Narvaez has been in a large prolonged slump. Hiura has a 43% krate with a 512 babip vs RHP, I'm sorry but the results he's had to this point  vs RHP were not sustainable at the major league level. 

All we hear is about unsustainable his results are and if that is indeed the case Hiura will stop hitting and then he can be demoted. At some point actual results matter and Hiura was hitting as well and in most cases better than anyone in this lineup. When analytics overrides actual real life statistics it is going too far and the player in this case Hiura should either keep hitting and only be sent down when his stats go down.

Meanwhile other players who aren't doing nearly as well stay in the lineup because they hit 1000 mph ground balls. This organization has shafted Hiura and I hope for his sake he gets traded somewhere and keeps crushing baseballs while we play inferior talent who don't strike out as much but has the greatest exit velocity on ground balls. Its an absolute shame that we sent down the guy who was our best hitter against righties because the analytical geniuses have decided he can't keep it up.

[TheeAirbender]

2 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

All we hear is about unsustainable his results are and if that is indeed the case Hiura will stop hitting and then he can be demoted. At some point actual results matter and Hiura was hitting as well and in most cases better than anyone in this lineup. When analytics overrides actual real life statistics it is going too far and the player in this case Hiura should either keep hitting and only be sent down when his stats go down.

Meanwhile other players who aren't doing nearly as well stay in the lineup because they hit 1000 mph ground balls. This organization has shafted Hiura and I hope for his sake he gets traded somewhere and keeps crushing baseballs while we play inferior talent who don't strike out as much but has the greatest exit velocity on ground balls. Its an absolute shame that we sent down the guy who was our best hitter against righties because the analytical geniuses have decided he can't keep it up.

Tell me any player that has had any sustained success with those underlying metrics. I’ll be waiting

[brewers888]

2 minutes ago, TheeAirbender said:

Tell me any player that has had any sustained success with those underlying metrics. I’ll be waiting

Any player hitting as well as Hiura has this season deserves the opportunity to keep it up or get sent down if he can't but Keston was not given the opportunity to continue hitting .

[Brewcrew82]

36 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Any player hitting as well as Hiura has this season deserves the opportunity to keep it up or get sent down if he can't but Keston was not given the opportunity to continue hitting .

You do realize that stats like K% are hugely predictive of future results? Which means that given further at-bats hiura’s numbers are all-but-certain to dovetail…The hrs are great and all but they don’t say as much as to what he will do going forward. Why should the Brewers let him go through that downturn in meaningful games during a playoff run, especially with how the offense has come out on fire to start the second half? 

[monty57]

4 hours ago, rickh150 said:

When people just say “old school” or “just antiquated” without a fairly good reason, red flags go up. An explanation would be helpful.

Wouldnt everyone want higher OPS guys batting higher? Is OPS old school too? Isn’t that a pretty good overall stat to merit worth? I just read batting avg doesn’t matter in one post, and another said that a guy with a batting average lower than .200 should expect to get demoted. Well Adames is batting .217. Then I see “Best hitter” from someone else too. 
Adames puts ball in play a little better than Hiura, and Hiura has somewhat power stats than Adames,  They aren’t that different this year.
One hits second daily for a playoff team. The other is in Nashville. I just can’t see the logic.

OPS is a good "generic" stat to get a quick overview of how a hitter is doing. From the day I first saw it, I figured that its biggest flaw is that it overvalues SLG relative to OBP when OBP is more important than SLG. My preferred "look at one thing only" stat would be wRC+ or wOBA. I generally use wRC+ because it's based on 100 as "league average," so it's really easy to use.

I believe that those who say "batting average doesn't matter" are fooling themselves. Batting average is the biggest and most important component of OBP, and OBP is about the most important thing in baseball. Of course batting average is important. It is extremely important. It just doesn't tell the whole story. For that, use wRC+.

However, any stat has to be taken with a big grain of salt when the sample size is too small. That applies to OPS, OBP, and yes, to K rate. I understand that Hiura rightfully has a hill to climb this year to earn playing time, and I think there is a good chance that he will just never be a good enough hitter to earn full-time duty. When people say his numbers are inflated due to unsustainable things like BABIP and HR rate, they're right.

My biggest complaint this year was that he made some adjustments, looked like a different player than he was in 2020 & 2021, was hitting the ball hard against right-handed pitchers, and the Brewers only started him against lefties. Most of his PAs against righties came against relievers, and even though he rarely got a chance to face them, he still did pretty well against them. He did strike out too much, but I'd bet that if the only lefty someone faced was Hader, his strikeout rates would be absurdly high as well. I know that his numbers weren't going to be as good as the were (he had a wRC+ vs RHP of 244 at one point!) but I thought he should play to see what was real and what was not.

Hiura may indeed strike out too much to ever be effective, but I just wanted to see him get more PAs vs RHP when he was hot. Especially considering that at the time McCutchen was in a woefully bad slump and probably could've used a few days off.

That didn't happen, and if Hiura isn't going to get a shot when he has a 244 wRC+ and his "competition" is 0-for-May, he's probably never going to get a shot. That's why I think that everyone involved will be best served if Hiura is traded in the next few days for someone that will help the Brewers. The Brewers will get someone they'll use, and Hiura can "sink or swim" elsewhere.

As to "batting order doesn't matter," that has equal credibility with "batting average doesn't matter," but this post is already too long. 

[rickh150]

15 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You do realize that stats like K% are hugely predictive of future results? Which means that given further at-bats hiura’s numbers are all-but-certain to dovetail…The hrs are great and all but they don’t say as much as to what he will do going forward. Why should the Brewers let him go through that downturn in meaningful games during a playoff run, especially with how the offense has come out on fire to start the second half? 

No better option, comes to mind.

[monty57]

4 hours ago, TheeAirbender said:

I dont know, from this discussion I just think you don't really know what you're talking about when it comes to evaluating players and how they end up at their statlines. Let me ask you this. What has Hiura improved on from 2020 and 2021 where he was unplayable besides "His obp and ops"?

His mechanics.

[GAME05]

It's a reasonable argument to make that with Hiura on a hot streak, he should be continuing that hot streak at the Major League level. But I'm not convinced that past performance is predictive of future results. There's just as much reason to say his streak ended his final day in Milwaukee since we couldn't know what he'd do tomorrow. And then if he does stay, how do you go about deciding when that hot streak is over? If we try to ride a hot streak we're just as likely to see him be terrible the next three weeks and lose an extra game or two because of it before it's declared that his streak is over.

Ultimately is Hiura the guy you'd like to see get 4 ABs in a playoff game? If not it shouldn't be any big deal if he's demoted.

[brewers888]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You do realize that stats like K% are hugely predictive of future results? Which means that given further at-bats hiura’s numbers are all-but-certain to dovetail…The hrs are great and all but they don’t say as much as to what he will do going forward. Why should the Brewers let him go through that downturn in meaningful games during a playoff run, especially with how the offense has come out on fire to start the second half? 

Or maybe the strikeouts will come down and his numbers will improve on what has been a good season for him so far. The bottom line is Hiura put up good numbers and deserved to stay in the lineup till those numbers fell and he was not given that chance. Definitely better for the team to keep a third catcher than our best hitter against right handed pitching.

[Hopper]

7 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Worrying about Adames' OBP in the second slot is old baseball thinking. Modern thinking says "put your best hitter second" and Adames is the Brewers' best overall hitter. Getting Adames more plate appearances is more valuable than putting a lesser hitter in his place just because he gets on base more often.

How sad is it that he is our best overall hitter with numbers like that?  

The state of hitting in MLB is downright right pathetic. 

I realize that when I state the importance of batting average in your top of the order guys, I will also be accused of old time baseball thinking (which is an irritating thing to be accused of, and it happens here all the time to many posters), but it is what it is.  Take any of the new stats you want that players are judged on these days, batting average and OBP are still important when it comes to table setters.

[Guest]

I just hope he gets traded so he gets a chance.

As far as the conversation here, there seems to be a subset of fans that will agree and defend anything Stearns does no matter what. If Stearns made Hiura the full time dh I think some of his biggest detractors would defend him because they must always agree with Stearns. Even the best sometimes make mistakes though.