Hiura Slighted and Demoted; Adames hitting #2 with a .289 OBP

[rickh150]

27 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I do and Keston has exactly 1 hit in the upper half of the strike zone.  That is right 1 hit so I guess that is an improvement over 0.  Oh and he is still whiffing at about a 60% at the upper part of the zone?  Did you even look at his upper zone swings at all?  

Here they are so you don't have to look for yourself apparently you just got outhustled 

90 PA vs righties

.299 Avg/ .400 OBP/ 1.036 OPS

And that is with those at bats S   PR     E    A      D     out over this season!!!! Truly remarkable. Defenseless decision by Counsel. STILL stubborn. Honestly wondering if he starts  more than a game in LA.  Very questionable if that happens STILL.

[UpandIn]

55 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I do and Keston has exactly 1 hit in the upper half of the strike zone.  That is right 1 hit so I guess that is an improvement over 0.  Oh and he is still whiffing at about a 60% at the upper part of the zone?  Did you even look at his upper zone swings at all?  

Here they are so you don't have to look for yourself apparently you just got outhustled here.....

Well...then with respect, saying he's made no adjustments is just objectively false. Irrespective of the results...which have been outstanding, the statement that he's made NO adjustments is kinda ridiculous. He's closed his stance, he's overhauled his swing. That's an adjustment. You're really clinging to the fact that he's struggling with Fastballs up...and he's CLEARLY attempting to lay off of them, but you know what makes it REALLY hard? When you're the best hitter on the team and yet you're getting sporadic playing time. 

For all the "it's luck, he won't keep it up," you may be right. OR maybe his exceptional bat speed and hand eye coordination will improve with more playing time. I don't particularly care right now as I want to see THIS team get into the playoffs and THIS team win a division and have a shot at a WS. Hiura is very obviously helping us do that MORE than 

 

Either way, numbers on a chart are a nice source of predictive analytics...but when a guy is on the field consistently producing NOW for a team desperately in need of a bat NOW...I really don't care. 

This feels like the Packers board with Love except for exact opposite reasons. You see the guy actually doing the thing on the field and it's somehow diminished.

 

Now, in fairness...bringing up a post from 12 days ago after a big day, not a fan of that as that'll get REAL petty in a sport like baseball, but you doubled down on the "he hasn't made an adjustments." He very clearly has.

[torts]

KESTDADDY hittin dingerz for dayssss

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, YelichPosse said:

One thing I’ve noticed, the K’s don’t bother me so much in todays game how it’s played.

hardly anyone moves runners over, etc. and most guys K a lot. 
 

I rather have a guy like Keston who K’s a lot and when he makes contact hits piss rockets, than guys who K less and beats the ball into the ground , pop out swinging out of their shoes, or try and pull an outside pitch and meekly ground out.

just seems silly in this offense the one guy who has shown the most gets the red headed stepchild treatment lol

Well...they bother the hell outta me, but since everyone else is doing it, we might as well keep playing the guy crushing the ball when he DOES make contact(which...I get is basically what you're saying). 

 

I think there is a lot of validity to what Nate is saying. He SHOULDN'T be doing what he's doing. But...the fact is, the guy is mashing. Keep him out there. MAYBE you get him back to where he was as a prospect coming up. Maybe you just get a good, fluke year out of Hiura. Maybe he stops hitting next week and goes into a slump. 

None of that is a reason to NOT ride the hot hand RIGHT NOW.

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

I do and Keston has exactly 1 hit in the upper half of the strike zone.  That is right 1 hit so I guess that is an improvement over 0.  Oh and he is still whiffing at about a 60% at the upper part of the zone?  Did you even look at his upper zone swings at all?  

 

How does that compare to the rest of the league?

My understanding is that now that most pitchers throw at least mid-90's that very few hitters in the majors can hit fastballs at the top of the zone.

[Fear The Chorizo]

There isn't another hitter on the Brewers' roster anywhere close to Hiura's 0.856 OPS right now - he needs to get the lions' share of ABs as a DH, and if that means benching one of the veteran OFs making alot more $$, so be it.

Hiura had inflated BABIP stats back in 2019 as well - primarily because when he makes contact into fair territory with his handspeed through the zone he tends to hit a rocket somewhere.  The K rate is alarming, but if a typical 4 AB game for him includes 1-2 strikeouts and 2 batted balls that have a high likelihood of impacting the score of a game, you have to ride that type of production right now when there aren't better answers in the MLB dugout.

[Jopal78]

13 hours ago, rickh150 said:

90 PA vs righties

.299 Avg/ .400 OBP/ 1.036 OPS

And that is with those at bats S   PR     E    A      D     out over this season!!!! Truly remarkable. Defenseless decision by Counsel. STILL stubborn. Honestly wondering if he starts  more than a game in LA.  Very questionable if that happens STILL.

If you read the quotes from Counsell, it hasn't simply been which bat is better. He believes McCutchen at DH and Taylor/Davis in CF is a better configuration than Hiura at DH and McCutchen in CF.  Hard to argue his logic is wrong, maybe the anger should be directed towards the front office for brining in McCutchen in the first place, although given what Hiura showed in 2020 and 2021, it was prudent to have another option at DH. 

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

If you read the quotes from Counsell, it hasn't simply been which bat is better. He believes McCutchen at DH and Taylor/Davis in CF is a better configuration than Hiura at DH and McCutchen in CF.  Hard to argue his logic is wrong, maybe the anger should be directed towards the front office for brining in McCutchen in the first place, although given what Hiura showed in 2020 and 2021, it was prudent to have another option at DH. 

Council also believes McCutchen at DH is a better configuration than Hiura at DH. The problem is playing Cutch all the time since we went over budget for him.

I seem to remember times when the Brewers put a third baseman at 2nd for like an entire season. I even remember Jesus Aguilar playing 3rd a time or two when we had a bunch of first basemen. I think the issue is that CC just doesn't like keston because he's the polar opposite of CC as a player.

[YelichPosse]

20 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

If you read the quotes from Counsell, it hasn't simply been which bat is better. He believes McCutchen at DH and Taylor/Davis in CF is a better configuration than Hiura at DH and McCutchen in CF.  Hard to argue his logic is wrong, maybe the anger should be directed towards the front office for brining in McCutchen in the first place, although given what Hiura showed in 2020 and 2021, it was prudent to have another option at DH. 

Yea. The roster makeup itself is flawed. (Likely why so many of us are pulling our hair out since the trade deadline). However, to your point... what was the possibility that Keston would do what he has done this year after the last 2 years? I figure that outcome to be about 20% likely at best if you took a straw poll. 

This adds to the push and I think well warranted for Frelick to come up after this arbitrary not eligible for ROY status thing passes this week.... plug him in CF, and let Keston spell Tellez now and then vs L and McCutchen vs R. Use McCutchen to give Yelich a day off more often, spell Renfroe, and come off the bench on days he doesn't start.

That would give us an offense that has a chance to get another run or two a game. And at this point, that's the difference between being 3-7 in our last 10 and like 6-4 or so. My 2 cents.

[tmwiese55]

While I've been on the play him more side for a while now I do see the conundrum.  Cutch has also been one of their best hitters since his bad first 6ish weeks and both guys are bad at D. And the two best spots to play Keston vs RHP are 2B/1B both manned by lefty hitters, one who's been solid enough all year and the other had been hot until the last week or so.  At this point though, you probably just have to eat Cutch playing CF since the other options have been so bad at the plate.  Yea D isn't ideal but chances are you can lift him with a lead late. 

[Jopal78]

46 minutes ago, timpep said:

I think the issue is that CC just doesn't like keston because he's the polar opposite of CC as a player.

Ha ha. Yep, Counsell is racking up losses and damaging his reputation as a manager because he'd doesn't like a player. By that rationale he wouldn't like 90% of the players on the team because Counsell had zero pop (.344 slg). 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Ha ha. Yep, Counsell is racking up losses and damaging his reputation as a manager because he'd doesn't like a player. By that rationale he wouldn't like 90% of the players on the team because Counsell had zero pop (.344 slg). 

Yeah I think it's obvious he doesn't like Keston as a player or he'd be playing more. This doesn't even seem debatable. 

 

The question is why he doesn't like what Keston brings to the table. I think it's because he's the total opposite of CC. Bad defense, not gritty, I really don't know. 

[Samurai Bucky]

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/keston-hiura/20003/splits-tool?splitArr=&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2022-08-03&endDate=2022-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=-1,1

Since he came back (I'm using 8/3 as a start date), he has walked once in 25 PA.  K% is at 36%.  I think he should get more playing time because he has earned it lately.  I'm still hesitant to claim that he has turned the corner.  Since 8/3, he only hits 13% the other way, but at least it is almost a split between pull and hitting to center field.

I hope he continues to improve.

[YelichPosse]

What is his quality of contact % this year/ and recently ? Anyone have that metric? I would be interested to see how he compares to some of the others on the team. Seems even his singles are hit well. Maybe that's just the brewer goggles. 

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, YelichPosse said:

What is his quality of contact % this year/ and recently ? Anyone have that metric? I would be interested to see how he compares to some of the others on the team. Seems even his singles are hit well. Maybe that's just the brewer goggles. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2022-batting.shtml

 

Go down to advanced stats in that page. Keston has highest exit velocity, highest HR%, highest hard hit% highest line drive %, lowest ground ball%, no surprise he's got a high BABIP. Although his BABIP has fallen a bit during this hot steak it's still high at .387.

 

[YelichPosse]

55 minutes ago, timpep said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2022-batting.shtml

 

Go down to advanced stats in that page. Keston has highest exit velocity, highest HR%, highest hard hit% highest line drive %, lowest ground ball%, no surprise he's got a high BABIP. Although his BABIP has fallen a bit during this hot steak it's still high at .387.

 

Thank you!

Yea those are some gaudy stats. You can't penalize him for "luck" when there's not much luck involved in an exit velo 0ver 105 mph lol.

 

Also just noticed that he and Yelich lead the team with 1.0 in Win Probability Added. That's crazy to me.

[nate82]

15 hours ago, LouisEly said:

How does that compare to the rest of the league?

My understanding is that now that most pitchers throw at least mid-90's that very few hitters in the majors can hit fastballs at the top of the zone.

I am just guessing here but I would say well below average.  I haven't found anything league wide that breaks it down like I posted previously.  But just by the eye test Hiura can't hit fastballs up in the zone actually he can't hit much of anything up in the zone due to his swing.  He is more likely to whiff at something at the top of the zone than anywhere else.  

Even if the league was at 50% Hiura would still be below average and I doubt the league as a whole is at a 50% whiff rate at the top of the strike zone it is probably closer to 35-45% than it is to 50%.  This is not just fastballs that Hiura is missing at the top of the strike zone but all pitches at the top of the strike zone.  

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, timpep said:

Yeah I think it's obvious he doesn't like Keston as a player or he'd be playing more. This doesn't even seem debatable. 

 

The question is why he doesn't like what Keston brings to the table. I think it's because he's the total opposite of CC. Bad defense, not gritty, I really don't know. 

Those last four words some it up.  These are all professionals who are paid to try to win baseball games, its lunacy to suggest a manager would subvert his team because he doesn't like a player or player's style. If Hiura hit .375 with 50 homeruns he could fail to run out fly balls, insult Counsell's wife and still hit cleanup every night. 

In this instance, the manager himself stated he'd like to get Hiura in the games more but it would mean moving McCutchen to CF, and to date he's believed in terms of overall strength McCutchen (DH) + Taylor/Davis > Hiura (DH) + McCutchen. 

 

[monty57]

11 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Those last four words some it up.  These are all professionals who are paid to try to win baseball games, its lunacy to suggest a manager would subvert his team because he doesn't like a player or player's style. If Hiura hit .375 with 50 homeruns he could fail to run out fly balls, insult Counsell's wife and still hit cleanup every night. 

In this instance, the manager himself stated he'd like to get Hiura in the games more but it would mean moving McCutchen to CF, and to date he's believed in terms of overall strength McCutchen (DH) + Taylor/Davis > Hiura (DH) + McCutchen. 

 

But he could just sit McCutchen, because Hiura has been better than McCutchen. 

McCutchen (DH) + Taylor/Davis probably is > Hiura (DH) + McCutchen (CF),

but 

Hiura (DH) + Taylor/Davis (CF) probably is > McCutchen (DH) + Taylor/Davis (CF)

It's the belief that McCutchen must play that is clouding things up. I think that cementing McCutchen into the 3/4 spot in the lineup has hurt the team this season. 

[NBBrewFan]

13 minutes ago, monty57 said:

But he could just sit McCutchen, because Hiura has been better than McCutchen. 

McCutchen (DH) + Taylor/Davis probably is > Hiura (DH) + McCutchen (CF),

but 

Hiura (DH) + Taylor/Davis (CF) probably is > McCutchen (DH) + Taylor/Davis (CF)

It's the belief that McCutchen must play that is clouding things up. I think that cementing McCutchen into the 3/4 spot in the lineup has hurt the team this season. 

I agree 100%. It's not that there's just one option and the idea that Counsell may not even understand that you can sit McCutcheon means he isn't as smart as people think.

[Jopal78]

26 minutes ago, monty57 said:

But he could just sit McCutchen, because Hiura has been better than McCutchen. 

McCutchen (DH) + Taylor/Davis probably is > Hiura (DH) + McCutchen (CF),

but 

Hiura (DH) + Taylor/Davis (CF) probably is > McCutchen (DH) + Taylor/Davis (CF)

It's the belief that McCutchen must play that is clouding things up. I think that cementing McCutchen into the 3/4 spot in the lineup has hurt the team this season. 

Sounds like you need to have a conversation with Craig about the definition of better, because he disagrees with you, and I don't think he got stupid overnight. 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Sounds like you need to have a conversation with Craig about the definition of better, because he disagrees with you, and I don't think he got stupid overnight. 

Appealing to authority is a classic logical fallacy. If Craig is automatically right then why even have the conversation? 

[monty57]

5 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Sounds like you need to have a conversation with Craig about the definition of better, because he disagrees with you, and I don't think he got stupid overnight. 

Other than "who gets a bigger paycheck," Hiura has beaten McCutchen in pretty much any way someone could look at it... except for hitting vs LHP, which is the primary time Hiura has been used. Thankfully, he's starting to look a little better in that regard as well.

I don't know who made the call (Counsell, Attanasio, or Stearns), but it seems obvious that when McCutcheon was signed, he was cemented into the middle of the order every day. I get why he was signed, I think that Hiura surprised everyone by actually hitting this year, and that has caused the stir.

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Sounds like you need to have a conversation with Craig about the definition of better, because he disagrees with you, and I don't think he got stupid overnight. 

More like stubborn.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think the current roster logjam has alot to do with Stearns' organizational philosophy of positional flexibility/interchangeable parts going a bit too far - and the fact there isn't a true batting order anchor to build the lineup around since Yelich has turned into an OBP-dependent leadoff hitter.  

The Brewers are full of slightly above replacement level bats for their primary positions - but that leads to alot of questioning when it comes to getting guys regular ABs when the guys plugged in the lineup don't produce and the guys on the bench don't have a glaring reason to avoid playing.  And at this point in the season, I think there is value in a team committing to "dance with the guys that got you there"....in the Brewers' case, they can't really state what that "everyday" lineup actually is because of how much shuffling around they do with 5-6 spots in the lineup on a day to day basis.

I think anytime the Brewers face a lefthanded starter, both McCutcheon and Hiura need to be in the lineup - Keston has done enough recently to justify that opportunity primarily because the Brewers as a whole don't have many quality options against RHP.  Against a righty starter, Hiura needs to be the DH even if that means McCutcheon starts the game on the bench.