Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)

[jay87shot]

On 12/15/2022 at 8:43 PM, rickh150 said:

Three? Panning out… does that mean a decent starter? If so, I would be thrilled with two being worthy starters or fringe All Stars. I think the Brewers would be happy with that, but then again that could short change Chourio somewhat considering all the hype. Still think the Brewers take that…

My guess is that panning out would mean being high quality starters. I think all have a relatively high floor because all can run and play good defense. If any of those guys don't pan out I would think they will be like a Tyrone Taylor type player and if they pan out they will be like Lo-Cain value pre 2020. They could all excel as well and be borderline superstars. My guess/hope is one ends up like Taylor, 2 Cain's, and 1 star. 

On 12/15/2022 at 5:42 PM, monty57 said:

I figure Yelich will be the DH next year (‘24). so that might give us some time with Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer as starters until Chourio is up for good. That could mean that Taylor could still be the backup.
 

How all the guys progress and get promoted should determine Taylor’s fate. He’s not going to block any of them, but if someone’s going to just sit the bench, I’d rather it be him, with Wiemer playing every day in AAA. 
 

If Chourio and Wiemer come up sooner, Taylor will be gone sooner. 

I like the idea of seeing if Mitchell can play some 1st base next offseason. Frelich, Chourio, Weimer are all prototypical LF/CF/RF if reports are correct and they continue to develop fully. Mitchell could be a great 1st baseman and 4th outfielder who could swipe a ton of bags and maybe eventually hit for power.

[jay87shot]

3 hours ago, jakedood said:

Kim was 3.7 WAR but definitely played up a little, and I dont think he'll have another season like that, plus the bats poor. I'd say if you want premium defense and a stable 2 WAR you'll probably get that from Turang, who I'd imagine will put up similar numbers

baseball reference had him at 5.1 WAR, oWAR 3.7, dWAR 2.2, and my guess would be -0.8 baserunning (couldn't find). I think fangraph just puts there offensive war on the stats page if that is what you looked at but I could be wrong.

I agree with you that I would still just go with Turang and not spend the resources on a trade and have it backfire.

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, jay87shot said:

My guess is that panning out would mean being high quality starters. I think all have a relatively high floor because all can run and play good defense. If any of those guys don't pan out I would think they will be like a Tyrone Taylor type player and if they pan out they will be like Lo-Cain value pre 2020. They could all excel as well and be borderline superstars. My guess/hope is one ends up like Taylor, 2 Cain's, and 1 star. 

I like the idea of seeing if Mitchell can play some 1st base next offseason. Frelich, Chourio, Weimer are all prototypical LF/CF/RF if reports are correct and they continue to develop fully. Mitchell could be a great 1st baseman and 4th outfielder who could swipe a ton of bags and maybe eventually hit for power.

I feel pretty confident in saying that Mitchell will never be playing 1B for the Brewers…

[nate82]

3 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I like the idea of seeing if Mitchell can play some 1st base next offseason. Frelich, Chourio, Weimer are all prototypical LF/CF/RF if reports are correct and they continue to develop fully. Mitchell could be a great 1st baseman and 4th outfielder who could swipe a ton of bags and maybe eventually hit for power.

1. Mitchell is the better defender in CF of all of the prospects listed so moving him to 1B would be a waste.

2. Update your autocorrect so Frelick and Wiemer come up correctly.  

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, jay87shot said:

baseball reference had him at 5.1 WAR, oWAR 3.7, dWAR 2.2, and my guess would be -0.8 baserunning (couldn't find). I think fangraph just puts there offensive war on the stats page if that is what you looked at but I could be wrong.

oWAR and dWAR on BRef do not sum perfectly to a player's WAR because they both include the positional adjustment.

For Kim BRef has him at +6 BAT | +3 BSR | +12 FLD | +8 POS | +20 REP which sums to 49 RAR or 5.1 WAR.

On FanGraphs he is at +3.5 BAT | +1.9 BSR | +4.0 FLD | +5.9 POS | +17.4 REP which sums to 34.9 RAR or 3.7 WAR. 

As is the case with most players the main column driving the end WAR difference is fielding, which accounts for 8 of the 14 RAR difference between the two systems for Kim. 

[jay87shot]

With the Twins bringing back Correa they have tons of depth on the IF with Correa, Miranda, Arreaz, Polanco, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, and eventually Brooks Lee. They also have like 6 good OF options, plenty of rotation options (no real #1 or #2) options, and a solid pen. 

Long term they might be looking at Miranda, Lee, Lewis, and Lee in the infield. Polanco only has 1 year and Gordon is a high end utility. This leaves Luis Arreaz long term left out.

Obviously he would be a nice fit in with us. The problem with a trade is that he is at top value. Rumors are all around with the Marlins and Twins, maybe we could pop in as a 3rd team to smooth out some edges.

Twins get Pablo Lopez and Logan Henderson

Marlins get Max Kepler, Luis Urias, and Keston Huira (Cash from Twins)

Brewers get Luis Arreaz and Caleb Theilbar

The Twins get a rotation upgrade, the Marlins get 3 positions offensively upgraded (OF, 3B, and DH), and we get a 3B upgrade and a decent lefty reliever.

[wiguy94]

27 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

With the Twins bringing back Correa they have tons of depth on the IF with Correa, Miranda, Arreaz, Polanco, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, and eventually Brooks Lee. They also have like 6 good OF options, plenty of rotation options (no real #1 or #2) options, and a solid pen. 

Long term they might be looking at Miranda, Lee, Lewis, and Lee in the infield. Polanco only has 1 year and Gordon is a high end utility. This leaves Luis Arreaz long term left out.

Obviously he would be a nice fit in with us. The problem with a trade is that he is at top value. Rumors are all around with the Marlins and Twins, maybe we could pop in as a 3rd team to smooth out some edges.

Twins get Pablo Lopez and Logan Henderson

Marlins get Max Kepler, Luis Urias, and Keston Huira (Cash from Twins)

Brewers get Luis Arreaz and Caleb Theilbar

The Twins get a rotation upgrade, the Marlins get 3 positions offensively upgraded (OF, 3B, and DH), and we get a 3B upgrade and a decent lefty reliever.

Don’t think Arraez is a 3B. He’s more of a 1B/2B/DH. 

[nate82]

2 hours ago, jay87shot said:

With the Twins bringing back Correa they have tons of depth on the IF with Correa, Miranda, Arreaz, Polanco, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, and eventually Brooks Lee. They also have like 6 good OF options, plenty of rotation options (no real #1 or #2) options, and a solid pen. 

Long term they might be looking at Miranda, Lee, Lewis, and Lee in the infield. Polanco only has 1 year and Gordon is a high end utility. This leaves Luis Arreaz long term left out.

Obviously he would be a nice fit in with us. The problem with a trade is that he is at top value. Rumors are all around with the Marlins and Twins, maybe we could pop in as a 3rd team to smooth out some edges.

Twins get Pablo Lopez and Logan Henderson

Marlins get Max Kepler, Luis Urias, and Keston Huira (Cash from Twins)

Brewers get Luis Arreaz and Caleb Theilbar

The Twins get a rotation upgrade, the Marlins get 3 positions offensively upgraded (OF, 3B, and DH), and we get a 3B upgrade and a decent lefty reliever.

Defensively Arraez is worse than Urias so I don't see how this improves the Brewers at 3B.  This trade makes the Brewers worse off at 3B and is not an upgrade.  Arraez would be playing 2B and you would be playing Toro and Brosseau at 3B.  I am not seeing how this trade improves the Brewers.  It seems like neither team other than the Twins are getting anything useful in this trade.  I don't see the Marlins needing Urias or Hiura.  Kepler sure but he is not even close to being enough for Lopez.  Also I don't see the Twins giving up Thielbar. 

It would be better to just keep Urias than to do this trade. 

[MNBrew]

Living in MN & watching plenty of Twins games, I can say this with reasonable confidence:

Arraez is a batting champion and has been a strong hitter in the majors the whole time.  He's no defensive nightmare and he can play a lot of positions.  Regardless of what some of the defensive metrics say, his defense isn't bad.  He's easily the most valuable asset in the proposed trade and not someone the Twins "just won't have room for."  To try to reduce him to being worth very replaceable, pedestrian "power but not much else" sell-low Brewers hitters is a gross underestimation of Arraez's game and worth.

I'd love to have Arraez on the Brewers.  He's 25 years old and a .314 career hitter (.374 OBP, .784 OPS -- good for a non-power hitter) who doesn't walk a lot but strikes out even less -- a 4.4 bWAR player last year & 10.4 for his 4-year career.  The Twins pretty clearly don't want to move him.  The rumblings around the winter meetings were a one-time report that the Twins might be open to moving him if it might help them obtain really good pitching.  What's been perpetuated since then were repetitions of that one report, not additional/ongoing reports.

[brewcrewdue80]

The forthcoming trades deadline or next offseason are going to need some creativity as SPs will be needed as will 1st&3b. Will probably see some of our middle infield surplus prospects get thrown in to sweeten the return.  It's so tough in regards to 1b/3b as the gap from untouchable to top of the next tier always sit wide. It's like 850-900+ OPS to 720-770 OPS.  And here we sit how many seasons now where the team hasn't drafted and developed even that 720-770OPS bat at either position.

The next 4months of baseball will determine a lot what value they have with Ashby and the OFs+Turang.  Gasser/Jacob M/Small looking any the part of future 3s at least.  I dream of a day the team starts an over 800 OPS certainty bat for years at 1b or 3b.

[jay87shot]

2 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

The forthcoming trades deadline or next offseason are going to need some creativity as SPs will be needed as will 1st&3b. Will probably see some of our middle infield surplus prospects get thrown in to sweeten the return.  It's so tough in regards to 1b/3b as the gap from untouchable to top of the next tier always sit wide. It's like 850-900+ OPS to 720-770 OPS.  And here we sit how many seasons now where the team hasn't drafted and developed even that 720-770OPS bat at either position.

The next 4months of baseball will determine a lot what value they have with Ashby and the OFs+Turang.  Gasser/Jacob M/Small looking any the part of future 3s at least.  I dream of a day the team starts an over 800 OPS certainty bat for years at 1b or 3b.

I am super interested to see what we do at the deadline especially if we are in a similar place as last year. With the Hader trade disrupting the teams psyche my guess is Arnold may stay away from trading away anyone. 

8 hours ago, MNBrew said:

Living in MN & watching plenty of Twins games, I can say this with reasonable confidence:

Arraez is a batting champion and has been a strong hitter in the majors the whole time.  He's no defensive nightmare and he can play a lot of positions.  Regardless of what some of the defensive metrics say, his defense isn't bad.  He's easily the most valuable asset in the proposed trade and not someone the Twins "just won't have room for."  To try to reduce him to being worth very replaceable, pedestrian "power but not much else" sell-low Brewers hitters is a gross underestimation of Arraez's game and worth.

I'd love to have Arraez on the Brewers.  He's 25 years old and a .314 career hitter (.374 OBP, .784 OPS -- good for a non-power hitter) who doesn't walk a lot but strikes out even less -- a 4.4 bWAR player last year & 10.4 for his 4-year career.  The Twins pretty clearly don't want to move him.  The rumblings around the winter meetings were a one-time report that the Twins might be open to moving him if it might help them obtain really good pitching.  What's been perpetuated since then were repetitions of that one report, not additional/ongoing reports.

I agree, I most definitely purposely undervalued Arreaz in my previous trade proposal. When I said that the future Twins infield is probably Miranda, Lewis, Lee, and Correa I should have mentioned that Arreaz is a perfect utility guy to play all over and DH or allow Correa or other a day of DH'ing.

Arreaz would be a perfect #2 hitter behind Yeli, then we would have two high obp. bats to set the table for Willy, Rowdy, and Contreras. To be honest Arreaz is someone I would consider trading Burnes or Woody for (along with others). 

Burnes for Sonny Gray, Luis Arreaz, Alex Kiroloff, a 5-10 ranked prospect. Then trade Urias, Rowdy, or Winker for prospects, Arreaz plays 3rd, 1st, or DH/Utl/2B depending on what trade benefits us most.

[jay87shot]

Any one have a good idea for a Red Sox trade? The seem to have hole in the middle of the field SP(health/age), 2B/SS, CF, C. I think there would be a decent chance we could give up some depth and make a nice value trade.

Lauer/Houser and Toro/Brosseau/Miller/Keston for Brayan Bello We get long term piece who could be a big asset this year. The Red Sox get depth for a great arm who didn't perform great last year in the bigs.

 

[SF70]

20 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Any one have a good idea for a Red Sox trade? The seem to have hole in the middle of the field SP(health/age), 2B/SS, CF, C. I think there would be a decent chance we could give up some depth and make a nice value trade.

Lauer/Houser and Toro/Brosseau/Miller/Keston for Brayan Bello We get long term piece who could be a big asset this year. The Red Sox get depth for a great arm who didn't perform great last year in the bigs.

 

No way the Red Sox give up 6 years of their best pitching prospect for that return.

[brewcrewdue80]

For a context this is where the turnover begins as the team has 8 Free Agents after 2024 season.

SPs~Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, and Wade Miley(if option was picked up)

SS~ Willy Adames

1b~Rowdy Tellez

Relief Pitcher~ Matt Bush

FAs after 2025 include

3b/Util~Luis Urias

RP~ Devin Williams, Hoby Milner

1b/DH~ Keston Hiura

3b/Util~ Mike Brosseau

FA after this season is Jesse Winker and Miley if we don't pick up option, as well as C Victor Caratini.

 

Looking at the current top 30, it would seem the team has more than enough #3 ceiling SPs to #4/5 floors.  So one would probably think a target in trades would involve a SP with #2 type ceiling(Ace ceiling I'd expect are untouchables)

OF we know is set moving forward with a surplus of talent.

There are a good number of SS type prospects with a couple 2b prospects.  Tyler Black heads the 2b future beyond Adames exit that would see Turang take over at SS. 

Catcher-Contreras and Quero when ready who based on defense applauds I would think is an early long term extension not long after he begins his ML career.

That leaves 1b/3b.  The one idea I have is that this will be a future William Contreras home at 1b.  There is still Yelich through 2028 that I think could be used at 1b.(he doesn't have 1b games professionally but had 1b among his predraft position)  If those aren't 2 solid options moving forward, the team has 0 1b among top 30 and must address the position in trade or FA signing.

3b.  I think the belief has been the lacking at SS defensively would have 3b as an option to play(Urias an example)  But so far this strategy hasn't played out.  The batting ability is SS quality that doesn't fit what 3b should see producing on good seasons.  Team like 1b needs to address this in future trades or FA signings.

RPs.  So volatile and they definitely have options addressing the future beyond Williams.  Plus the numerous #3 ceiling SPs that fizzle out to Swingman status generally thought is their stuff would play up more when turned in to a Relief Pitcher.  And there are always avenues towards finding RPs in trade or FA signings.  

3b is the highest priority fix for the team to find with multiple years of control beyond 2024.  Man and going through BRef looking for young 3b types that you would think is available in trade, pretty hopeless 24 and younger.  Brett Baty who is one of the types you'd think not available in trade has under a .920 fielding pct in his pro career(where league avg across MLB was .964)  Urias was at .940.  

Not a fun landscape.  Players that were 24 and under who I checked on and thought maybe lets see their scouting report from MLB and a team top 30.  Think only 1 appeared in a team's top 30 so the guys I thought to look at are basically after thoughts, Would need to see them last a full season playing regularly for their team with 3b as designated position to have faith that is somebody who solves 3b for Milw future.

 

[titletownking]

There has to be another move tho right? This team is fine but I can’t imagine they go into next year with this pitching with fine. I think we see a significant move before the end of the month. 

[sveumrules]

25 minutes ago, titletownking said:

There has to be another move tho right? This team is fine but I can’t imagine they go into next year with this pitching with fine. I think we see a significant move before the end of the month. 

It’s possible one last move of significance is incoming before the season starts, but with how the NL lines up currently it’d be hard for us to jump from a “low tier” contender up to that next tier.

Here’s the current projected WAR totals for NL teams on the FanGraphs depth charts…

Top Tier: SDP (52.2), NYM (51.6), ATL (50.2)

Mid Tier: LAD (47.8), STL (46.4)

Low Tier: PHI (43.4), MIL (41.8)

Need Help: SFG (37.6), MIA (36.5), CHC (35.3). PIT (35.2), ARI (33.2)

No Hope: WAS (28.2), CIN (27.6), COL (26.1)

[jay87shot]

It would be nice to trade Huira for a right handed hitting 4th OF (with some potential versatility). 

Jo Adell, Ramon Laureano, Sam Haggerty could all be interesting. I am sure there are a couple dozen guys that could make decent sense. 

[nate82]

If the White Sox are out of it by the deadline I wonder if they would do something like this?

[wiguy94]

38 minutes ago, nate82 said:

If the White Sox are out of it by the deadline I wonder if they would do something like this?

I wouldn't give up Black and Brown for half of a season of Giolito.

[brewcrewdue80]

13 hours ago, nate82 said:

If the White Sox are out of it by the deadline I wonder if they would do something like this?

In a Heartbeat they would. Imagine Giolitos value decreases after 81 more games. 

[TURBO]

I'd be pretty hesitant to trade Black for a rental... 

Black could very well be our future 2B for a long damn time.

 

[nate82]

The only other option maybe Marquez from the Rockies for Lara (OF) and a lottery ticket. 

[jay87shot]

I like German Marquez, my guess is that he would cost a little more than than Lara because he has a team option next year. I could see a potential of packaging Marquez and Daniel Bard for collection of parts around the deadline. Giolito would be nice but I would give up a top 7-8 prospect in the org for him unless he is back to his sub 3.00 era days (6 era in 16 innings). I think I like Brad Keller or Zack Greinke might be the best early season rentals (Mitch Keller as a multi year option). To be honest we will get Houser back soon and Ashby and Woody (hopefully) before mid-season. Burnes, Peralta, Lauer, Miley, Houser (Rea/Junk/Wilson) should be ok to get us to Ashby and Woody. However if we lose another starter (knock on wood) I think a Keller for a couple meh prospects would be a good idea, say Keller for Valerio/Zamora and a lotto type prospect.

[nate82]

Scratch Marquez he is now on the IL with forearm inflammation.  Though they are saying it is minor but that is usually a TJ surgery possibility at some point.

[jay87shot]

Aroldis Chapman is looking like a perfect early season trade candidate. The Royals are bad, Chapman has a 0 Era with 15 k's in 8 innings. All while averaging 100 mph. I would give up 3 interesting pieces for him, probably no top 10 or so prospects. Say Robert Moore, Hendry Mendez or Hedbert Perez, and Logan Henderson. That is a lot of young talent but nothing with a gaurentee.