DO NOT GIVE UP ON THE 2022 SEASON!!!

[StearnsFTW]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Nope, it's just reality. I acknowledge there's a reason they play the games, anything can happen.  However, you can potentially get $320 on a winning $100 bet in Vegas right now on the Brewers making the post season. 

This is incredibly strange since 538 has them at 57% to make the playoffs.  I'd like to see a link, not because I don't believe you, I'm just shocked.  They should be like -120 if you believe 538.

 

Edit:  I just read the posts after the one I quoted.  No way that +320 is accurate.  So I'm not crazy.

 

 

[KeithStone53151]

6 minutes ago, Axman59 said:

"It is not too early to give up on this season"

I guess we should give up now, then.

---

I already edited it once and apparently didn't fix it. Grammar clearly is not my strong suit. Thank you all for pointing out my glaring grammatical error. I updated it to make it clear...or so i hope.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

 They still have a chance, but they can't keep having a 10-game window that's a losing record.  They need to start winning more than they lose for more than 8 days. 

That's the thought I tried to convey in previous comments, but you put it a lot cleaner than I did. Consistency. In the past they've been successful over the long haul with a lot of 6-4 stretches & no significant losing streaks thanks to the pitching. Now it's like they have to make up for the pity party they threw themselves while the Pirates & Reds were beating us.

[Outlander]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I already edited it once and apparently didn't fix it. Grammar clearly is not my strong suit. Thank you all for pointing out my glaring grammatical error. I updated it to make it clear...or so i hope.

It actually surprised me in a positive manner, was expecting negative but got something positive. Now more than ever could use some positivity.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, StearnsFTW said:

This is incredibly strange since 538 has them at 57% to make the playoffs.  I'd like to see a link, not because I don't believe you, I'm just shocked.  They should be like -120 if you believe 538.

 

Edit:  I just read the posts after the one I quoted.  No way that +320 is accurate.  So I'm not crazy.

 

 

Don’t forget 538 had Hillary at an almost lock to win.

 

 

[rickh150]

 Put Hiura and Frelick in the lineup regularly. This offense is in desperate need of a jolt. Waiting around now with this group against good pitching teams…. Just not seeing it. Hiura is on fire against righties and Frelick cannot do much more at AAA.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I wouldn't give up, there's too much time left and we've seen some wild Septembers in very recent history. That said, this roster has a serious offense problem. They can't compete in free agency and there just isn't enough pipeline help coming fast enough to be paired with the stellar pitching talent. It just seems like they can't get both of those going simultaneously. 

The Yelich debacle looms large over us unfortunately. He's a serviceable player, but this offense just can't have a $27mm slap singles hitter. It's a very different team with a .900 OPS Yelich, but yeah there are a bunch of other issues offensively. 

[UpandIn]

15 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

The Brewers sit currently 1.5 back of the Cardinals/Phillies and 2 back of the Padres. Of those 4 teams, 1 won't get in to the playoffs. There is certainly plenty of reason to think the Brewers will improve down the stretch. Some teams got a shot in the arm with big deadline moves, the Brewers did not. That type of morale impact is temporary, it certainly seemed like trading Hader lowered morale and cost us some games...it's unlikely that lasts much longer. We have reinforcements coming on the pitching front in Houser, Cousins, maybe Topa...and I'm still hopeful that Frelick forces his way into the CF role for the stretch run. We have the pitching that if the bats can heat up a bit at the right time...we can still be very dangerous down the stretch and into the playoffs. On paper, this team loses every time to the Dodgers and Mets. But baseball isn't played on paper. If we can get into the playoffs, it's certainly feasible that the players play a bit above their heads and have a few things go their way.

Trevor Rosenthal is also due to start a rehab assignment tomorrow.

Ruiz, Turang, Frelick and then obviously Jace. All guys who could contribute down the stretch.

Then Houser, Cousins, Topa and Rosenthal?

I'm still entirely confident this team wins the division, and if we can get the Matt Bush that we've seen with Williams, Rosenthal of 2020, Rogers and the starting rotation, 

I'm really shocked at how many people are giving up on this team. This BP has a chance to be absolutely dominant. The rotation, dominant. The lineup...well, it looks like crap, but it's still somehow among the league leaders in many categories.

 

I know 2 things.

1-We've played our best baseball down the stretch
2-When you've got power arms who can rack up K's in high leverage situations, you've got a chance vs everyone.
Oh, and
3-The favorites are almost never the teams that end up smoking cigars and drinking in the clubhouse after the WS is over.

I'm not betting on a WS or making it to the NLCS, but...we've got the horses and there's ALWAYS someone who steps up on a WS team that nobody expected. We've got about a dozen players who could reasonably be that man.

 

It could also be informative to go back and read the comments from around the time of the Adames trade. It was near universally crushed on this board. Because we'd LOST the Urias/Lauer trade so badly, we had to double back down and trade away a promising pitcher for another shot at finding our SS. I'd say a couple months later that narrative was VERY different. I think the, "this isn't a contender," narrative could be very different in 2 months time as well. 

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Don’t forget 538 had Hillary at an almost lock to win.

I genuinely can't think of a more irrelevant talking point. 

I could point out all of the reasons, but I'd have to talk about politics to explain why that's such a terrible comparison, but I really don't want to do that. I'll just say one is taking someone's opinions about a particularly man, one that has shown he's an outlier as it pertains to all political polling vs another predictive model that takes numbers and nothing more. Not phone calls and onions. 

[UpandIn]

9 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

This is incredibly strange since 538 has them at 57% to make the playoffs.  I'd like to see a link, not because I don't believe you, I'm just shocked.  They should be like -120 if you believe 538.

 

Edit:  I just read the posts after the one I quoted.  No way that +320 is accurate.  So I'm not crazy.

 

 

Well...I'll go put 500 down on the Brewers to make the post-season then. They will get in. 

[BruisedCrew]

12 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Don’t forget 538 had Hillary at an almost lock to win.

 

 

We really don’t need political comments here, but I don’t consider 71% to be a near lock. 
 

As of today, Fangraphs has the Brewers playoff chances at 54% and 538 has them at 53%.

Is the cited Vegas bet for the Brewers winning the division, which would make more sense?

[Never Outhustled]

CC would overcome all the shortcomings of the team in most seasons, but he hasn't been himself this season. Increasingly lazy managing won't get this team to the postseason, there's just not enough talent. 

[willie key]

16 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

This is incredibly strange since 538 has them at 57% to make the playoffs.  I'd like to see a link, not because I don't believe you, I'm just shocked.  They should be like -120 if you believe 538.

 

Edit:  I just read the posts after the one I quoted.  No way that +320 is accurate.  So I'm not crazy.

 

 

Because those playoff odds numbers are a joke

[Jim French Stepstool]

6 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

CC would overcome all the shortcomings of the team in most seasons, but he hasn't been himself this season. Increasingly lazy managing won't get this team to the postseason, there's just not enough talent. 

I'd agree that many of his decisions have been questionable. But I don't think the rule changes in MLB have done him or the Brewers any favors. A great many of his successful moves in the past stemmed from his BP usage, which has been greatly curtailed with the 3 batter rule. I mean, this is the guy who started Dan Jennings & pulled him after ONE batter. I also feel his moves in the past re PH's & double switches often gave us an edge. Forget about that with the DH.

I dunno if "lazy" is a proper description or not, but if it is maybe we can blame MLB for basically making all mgrs lazy, or dumbing them down.

[Jim French Stepstool]

11 hours ago, UpandIn said:

 

 

I'm really shocked at how many people are giving up on this team..... 

It's an internet msg board. I'd be shocked if there weren't many.

[Jim French Stepstool]

11 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Trevor Rosenthal is also due to start a rehab assignment tomorrow.

Ruiz, Turang, Frelick and then obviously Jace. All guys who could contribute down the stretch.

Then Houser, Cousins, Topa and Rosenthal?

 

Another area where the Brewers weren't exactly smiled upon by MLB. You just mentioned 8 players, all of whom could indeed help. There are a few roster spots that could obviously be upgraded by some of those names, but come September you can only expand to 28. Of course we never went all the way to 40, but adding as many arms as we wanted really helped us in the last month--IMO more than most teams. 

I can see doing away with expanding to 40, but I would've liked 30 or 32. Going to 28 pissed me off.

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Another area where the Brewers weren't exactly smiled upon by MLB. You just mentioned 8 players, all of whom could indeed help. There are a few roster spots that could obviously be upgraded by some of those names, but come September you can only expand to 28. Of course we never went all the way to 40, but adding as many arms as we wanted really helped us in the last month--IMO more than most teams. 

I can see doing away with expanding to 40, but I would've liked 30 or 32. Going to 28 pissed me off.

The move to 28 hurt the Brewers. Ironically, Melvin had lobbied something similar for years.

[nate82]

35 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

The move to 28 hurt the Brewers. Ironically, Melvin had lobbied something similar for years.

This hurt the Brewers but something had to be done.  The parade of relievers was just insane and added another 15-30 minutes to the game.  The only thing they need to get rid of now is the three batter rule for relief pitchers.  Would be better to just implement a maximum number of pitching changes per game excluding extra innings.  Actually just reducing the game to seven innings would be a better idea.  

[Axman59]

13 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I'll just say one is taking someone's opinions about a particularly man, one that has shown he's an outlier as it pertains to all political polling vs another predictive model that takes numbers and nothing more. Not phone calls and onions. 

I don't trust 538 because they rely on onions too much. Onions give me an upset stomach unless they're cooked.

[KeithStone53151]

9 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

CC would overcome all the shortcomings of the team in most seasons, but he hasn't been himself this season. Increasingly lazy managing won't get this team to the postseason, there's just not enough talent. 

I've had issues with some of his decision making as well over the past couple seasons. Many are small, my biggest one this season is not giving Hiura more atbats. His upside this season is so much higher than McCutchen, they needed to give him the atbats against MLB quality pitching during the season to try and tap into his immense upside. His use has been so stupid that I want us to sell low just to give the guy a chance elsewhere. He's not getting a fair shot and it's disheartening considering his talent. I also generally fear next season when guys like Turang and Frelick come up, that we'll see CC put Jace/Taylor in for those guys way too often and they'll get intermittent atbats and bounce between AAA/MLB.

[NBBrewFan]

Never Give Up. Never Surrender!

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, rickh150 said:

The move to 28 hurt the Brewers. Ironically, Melvin had lobbied something similar for years.

Indeed he did. Probably one of my biggest bones to pick with Doug. That, and his propensity to preside over drafting corner INF'ers from Saskatchewan or British Columbia who flashed power in the low minors, then flamed out in A+ or AA with a .210 BA, 5 K's for every walk drawn, and a glove made of granite.

[BruisedCrew]

I really don’t know why anyone cares if some fans or posters express their frustration by declaring the season over or saying that they are done with this team.

Don’t you notice that those posters are back day after day, so they obviously haven’t really given up?

I think the vast majority of the frustration comes from having elevated expectations after last season that the Brewers could take advantage of a weak division to open up a division lead and maybe contend for one of the playoff spots that bypasses the wild card round. 
 

Watching the last 3 months of mediocre play that has forced a lowering of hopes and expectations that is understandably disappointing. 
 

What the team needs now to rekindle spirits is a stretch of winning some series In succession that isn’t followed quickly by giving back all of the ground gained. The three series after the break sparked some enthusiasm but that was quickly extinguished by the deadline moves (and non moves) and the dreadful series against the Pirates and Reds. The next 10 days are more of a survival mode to try to stay within touch of the Cards, Phillies, and Padres. The last 4 days of impotent offense have done nothing to help.

Maybe tonight will be the start of something. 

[homer]

 

[adambr2]

Nah, we're done.