Hader VERY BAD for Padres

[endaround]

19 hours ago, igor67 said:

I might be forgetting someone, but one way to understand Ruiz's prospect profile is that this is probably the only year of the Brewerfan era where Ruiz wouldn't be the number OF prospect in the organization based on what he did last year. There are enough tools that doing what he did at AAA last year I think would have put him ahead of anyone else in any other year including various First rounders in those 20 years. It's actually kind of depressing and surprising how few OFers we've had over that time.

That just isn't true.

There were really loaded earlier teams but easy to look at 2017 forward

2017 Brinson, Ray, Grisham

2018 Lutz, Grisham, Ray

2019 Lutz, Ray

2020 Here Ruiz could beat out Lutz and Ray but that is not really saying much

2021 Mitchell

 

[igor67]

It's hard to reconstruct what the thinking would have been, but I don't see Ray's tools and raw profile beating out Ruiz with tools and performance at AAA. Brinson's high level performance was less than Ruiz. Grisham and Lutz were highly regarded but also had questions and debate from the beginning. I could see someone have rated them more highly say in their draft years if they really loved projection, but I stand by my statement with the clarification that I recognize we had many OFers over the years draft high and ranked high for awhile but the flameout has been pretty incredible. Cain and Brantley have been the 2 best, but quirks of timing and draft status held them from that super high prospect rating as far as I can remember.

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, endaround said:

That just isn't true.

There were really loaded earlier teams but easy to look at 2017 forward

2017 Brinson, Ray, Grisham

2018 Lutz, Grisham, Ray

2019 Lutz, Ray

2020 Here Ruiz could beat out Lutz and Ray but that is not really saying much

2021 Mitchell

 

No way the 2022 version of Ruiz, AKA one of the best players in the minors, doesn't beat out Lutz, Ray, and even pre-2019 Trent Grisham. But then again, you see him as nothing more than a "lottery ticket" so I guess I shouldn't be surprised. 

[Robocaller]

5 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I mean, that's a pretty inaccurate way to look at it. Let's just say Hader would have provided 2.5 WAR had we kept him. 

So if both these prospects have 1 WAR seasons and then a few 0 to 0.3 seasons during a rebuilding time they provided more future value? No

You can't look at in such basic terms. If keeping Hader would have turned the team from a contender to a playoff participant that is pretty invaluable. It is a pretty big loss for next year too, that could certainly be a big reason if we miss the postseason again. We traded one of our best players in arguably the best competitive window the franchise has ever had. Generally speaking, I feel like that number would have to be more like 10 WAR combined to make me feel like we got more future value. If they get traded for good value some day or play a big part on a competitive team that could certainly change that. 

this is not a fruitful avenue. Nowhere did I say that those two guys would have career totals of 2.5 WAR. There is risk with any prospect. There is also risk with every ML player.

 

[MrTPlush]

26 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

this is not a fruitful avenue. Nowhere did I say that those two guys would have career totals of 2.5 WAR. There is risk with any prospect. There is also risk with every ML player.

 

Your posts explain exactly that. All these two have to do is best Hader's hypothetical WAR had he stayed in Milwaukee. You said if Gasser became a Lauer clone, it is an instant win. 

I am saying, that just is flat out not a great way to look at it due to the postseason implications Hader has and his impact had we got there. I also don't think WAR is a great way to value, arguably the best reliever in baseball. There are endless Lauer's in our farm system and in baseball. Having and acquiring a Hader isn't that easy. 

These guys don't have to become multi-time All Stars like Hader to make the trade worth it...but simply outbesting his WAR is not going to cut it. 

[Robocaller]

5 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

There are endless Lauer's in our farm system and in baseball.

You might want to research that. Pitching would be a lot better than it is.

 

[MrTPlush]

6 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

You might want to research that. Pitching would be a lot better than it is.

 

Fangraphs has 93 starters better than Lauer that threw at least 100 innings.

So yah...seems like there are plenty. 

Lauer is a good pitcher and I will be quite happy if Gasser becomes similar...but hardly a rarity. 

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Your posts explain exactly that. All these two have to do is best Hader's hypothetical WAR had he stayed in Milwaukee. You said if Gasser became a Lauer clone, it is an instant win. 

I am saying, that just is flat out not a great way to look at it due to the postseason implications Hader has and his impact had we got there. I also don't think WAR is a great way to value, arguably the best reliever in baseball. There are endless Lauer's in our farm system and in baseball. Having and acquiring a Hader isn't that easy. 

These guys don't have to become multi-time All Stars like Hader to make the trade worth it...but simply outbesting his WAR is not going to cut it. 

And this is the not the greatest perspective, either. Hader, while undoubtedly one of the best relievers in baseball, is still a guy with finite value. WAR, despite its limitations, is by far the best method of measuring that value. Starters are more valuable than relievers as they pitch far more innings over the course of a season. That's always the way it's been. With six full years of control, Gasser, even though he may turn out not be an all-star like Hader, will still prove more valuable to this franchise than Hader would have been over 1.5 years if he becomes a staple in the rotation like he is projected to be. 

You say the "Lauers" of the world are dime a dozen. Besides that simply not being true, you can also say that it's far easier to find effective relievers than it is to find effective starters. To keep competing for the playoffs and potentially a World Series, we will need starters like Lauer/Gasser. 

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Fangraphs has 93 starters better than Lauer that threw at least 100 innings.

So yah...seems like there are plenty. 

Lauer is a good pitcher and I will be quite happy if Gasser becomes similar...but hardly a rarity. 

Except Lauer didn't throw 100 innings, he threw 160....And in the last two years combined, he's produced the 37th best WAR and a better ERA than Luis Castillo, Yu Darvish, Frankie Montas, etc. You saw what happened when those innings had to go to a guy like Jason Alexander. Most teams would kill for a rotation of Eric Lauers. Either way, that doesn't accord with your "endless supply" statement. 

[Axman59]

Game 2 NLCS.

Save, 1 IP, 0 hits, 0 walks, 3 K's.

[BlightyBrew]

6 hours ago, Axman59 said:

Game 2 NLCS.

Save, 1 IP, 0 hits, 0 walks, 3 K's.

 I'm confused and have a couple of questions:

Is what the Padres did at the trade deadline be considered as what DS meant as "bites of the apple" approach (or did he mean bytes?) I don't recall the Padres twitter account stating as such at the time, but I might have missed that.  Just to be sure because even if the Padres lose, seems to me that they might have another bite next year.  Where we are debating such things, on this board, if we should trade Burnes/Woody or sign Burnes/Woody to an extension.  However, no one seems to mention a possibility the Burnes/Woody may not be interested in signing an extension with the club.  What will the narrative be if DS is offered an extension by MA but turns it down?

If the Padres win the NL pennant or the WS do the Brewers get an assist and would that be reason enough for MA to put another flag on the outfield wall as a participation trophy to show that they are serious about winning a WS?  Might boost season ticket sales next year.  

Maybe a promotion at the stadium next year might be instead of giving away a replica National League Championship Ring or World Series Ring, the Brewers can give away one of those candy rings instead with the slogan the Golden (or is it pyrite) Era of Brewers Baseball.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

5 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

 I'm confused and have a couple of questions:

Is what the Padres did at the trade deadline be considered as what DS meant as "bites of the apple" approach (or did he mean bytes?) I don't recall the Padres twitter account stating as such at the time, but I might have missed that.  Just to be sure because even if the Padres lose, seems to me that they might have another bite next year.  Where we are debating such things, on this board, if we should trade Burnes/Woody or sign Burnes/Woody to an extension.  However, no one seems to mention a possibility the Burnes/Woody may not be interested in signing an extension with the club.  What will the narrative be if DS is offered an extension by MA but turns it down?

If the Padres win the NL pennant or the WS do the Brewers get an assist and would that be reason enough for MA to put another flag on the outfield wall as a participation trophy to show that they are serious about winning a WS?  Might boost season ticket sales next year.  

Maybe a promotion at the stadium next year might be instead of giving away a replica National League Championship Ring or World Series Ring, the Brewers can give away one of those candy rings instead with the slogan the Golden (or is it pyrite) Era of Brewers Baseball.

I don't know if it's even realistic to compare the economic realities of the Brewers to a team like the Padres. Those two teams are in different stratospheres in regards to their ability to spend. Unfortunately that's the reality of baseball

[BlightyBrew]

29 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't know if it's even realistic to compare the economic realities of the Brewers to a team like the Padres. Those two teams are in different stratospheres in regards to their ability to spend. Unfortunately that's the reality of baseball

I remember a time when San Diego was a small market.  But economic realities was not the message.  

[BlightyBrew]

7 minutes ago, BlightyBrew said:

I remember a time when San Diego was a small market.  But economic realities was not the message.  

There was no economic reason to trade Hader at the deadline when you are in 1st and leading the division.  Offseason yes if you needed to.  

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

8 minutes ago, BlightyBrew said:

I remember a time when San Diego was a small market.  But economic realities was not the message.  

Then I guess I'm wondering what you are confused about. 

[BlightyBrew]

7 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Then I guess I'm wondering what you are confused about. 

I'm not.  I've been a Brewer

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

20 minutes ago, BlightyBrew said:

There was no economic reason to trade Hader at the deadline when you are in 1st and leading the division.  Offseason yes if you needed to.  

The only logical explanation I can come up with for making the move when they did was that the front office must have truly thought that Hader wouldn't be able to right the ship, and they felt they needed to take the best package they could for him before he continued to destroy his trade value. Obviously considering how Hader is destroying opponent hitters in the postseason right now, they were very wrong on that count.

Additionally I believe that the Brewers internally have a much higher value on the prospects they received - Ruiz and Gasser - than national prospect pundits and a big portion of posters here. I say that because, in my mind, it's the only logical conclusion. I hope beyond hope that they weren't wrong on this count as well.

[BlightyBrew]

3 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The only logical explanation I can come up with for making the move when they did was that the front office must have truly thought that Hader wouldn't be able to right the ship, and they felt they needed to take the best package they could for him before he continued to destroy his trade value. Obviously considering how Hader is destroying opponent hitters in the postseason right now, they were very wrong on that count.

Additionally I believe that the Brewers internally have a much higher value on the prospects they received - Ruiz and Gasser - than national prospect pundits and a big portion of posters here. I say that because, in my mind, it's the only logical conclusion. I hope beyond hope that they weren't wrong on this count as well.

Fair Point.  I hope that as well.

[brewers888]

So what is it going to take to change the thread title which looks more ridiculous each and every day of this postseason. Hader had a bad month so we decided to essentially give him away and now that he is back to being the best reliever in baseball Stearns looks like a fool.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

29 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

So what is it going to take to change the thread title which looks more ridiculous each and every day of this postseason. Hader had a bad month so we decided to essentially give him away and now that he is back to being the best reliever in baseball Stearns looks like a fool.

And Ruiz and Gasser are both crap and will never do anything for the Brewers. You may need some new material.

There was no denying that Hader was very bad for the Padres in the regular season. They stuck with him, and it has paid off. Just because the variables have shifted doesn't mean that this particular thread title wasn't correct. 

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

Anybody arguing Gasser's importance is foolish.  He will never be as important to a team as Hader.  For all the stat freaks on this board all you have to do is look at games played.  Gasser will never play in more than 20-35 games in a season.  I don't care how many innings he pitches he will not have the same effect as a Hader who pitches in 50 plus games a year.  I mean look at it this way the worst that Gasser could do is go 0-30 while Hader could go 0-50, doesn't matter innings we are talking about affecting the outcome of a game. Pure foolish argument by anyone that a starter will have greater affect then a reliever because of innings pitched.  Also, don't think that pitching the first inning will have the same leverage as pitching the ninth inning.  No stat covers that.  There is a reason why closers get paid better than 3, 4, or number 5 pitchers by MLB teams maybe posters should wake up to this fact there isn't a stat for everything.  Also, Hader as all Brewer fans know has extra value in the clubhouse something stat heads can only guess at with Gasser.  

 

Gasser is on the Lauer level of importance to this team at best.  Hader was on the Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Wily Adames, and Christian Yelich level.  There is no argument about who got the best player in this deal.  To say that Gasser's WAR and Ruiz's WAR should be used to compare to Hader's WAR is plain stupid.  Two players better be greater than one.  Do you think Wily Adames and Christian Yelich are better than Mike Trout because their combined WAR is better?  Seriously?  The game isn't played on paper so quit using stats to back up a statement.  Stats are not the entire reason for any trade.  There is a reason why Moneyball doesn't win the world series very often.  Good teams win the world series.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

8 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Anybody arguing Gasser's importance is foolish.  He will never be as important to a team as Hader.  For all the stat freaks on this board all you have to do is look at games played.  Gasser will never play in more than 20-35 games in a season.  I don't care how many innings he pitches he will not have the same effect as a Hader who pitches in 50 plus games a year.  I mean look at it this way the worst that Gasser could do is go 0-30 while Hader could go 0-50, doesn't matter innings we are talking about affecting the outcome of a game. Pure foolish argument by anyone that a starter will have greater affect then a reliever because of innings pitched.  Also, don't think that pitching the first inning will have the same leverage as pitching the ninth inning.  No stat covers that.  There is a reason why closers get paid better than 3, 4, or number 5 pitchers by MLB teams maybe posters should wake up to this fact there isn't a stat for everything.  Also, Hader as all Brewer fans know has extra value in the clubhouse something stat heads can only guess at with Gasser.  

 

Gasser is on the Lauer level of importance to this team at best.  Hader was on the Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Wily Adames, and Christian Yelich level.  There is no argument about who got the best player in this deal.  To say that Gasser's WAR and Ruiz's WAR should be used to compare to Hader's WAR is plain stupid.  Two players better be greater than one.  Do you think Wily Adames and Christian Yelich are better than Mike Trout because their combined WAR is better?  Seriously?  The game isn't played on paper so quit using stats to back up a statement.  Stats are not the entire reason for any trade.  There is a reason why Moneyball doesn't win the world series very often.  Good teams win the world series.

You make some very solid points here. I would be careful when making a very definitive statement like "he will never be as important to a team as Hader" though. I guess what it comes down to is how you value relief pitchers when compared to starters. Is it by how many games they directly effect, or moreso by how many innings they throw in a given season. Because if you are judging by innings, if Gasser becomes a solid rotational piece, he will throw substantially more innings than Hader  would had the Brewers hung onto him for next season. 

Fact is, Gasser is a 22 year old starter who just got his first taste of AAA ball at the end of this season. No one has any idea what his future holds. But judging by the way high-end starting pitching is paid in MLB compared to high-end relievers, I don't know if you are necessarily correct in your assumption that a top end reliever provides more value to a team simply because he is appearing in more games.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Anybody arguing Gasser's importance is foolish.  He will never be as important to a team as Hader.  For all the stat freaks on this board all you have to do is look at games played.  Gasser will never play in more than 20-35 games in a season.  I don't care how many innings he pitches he will not have the same effect as a Hader who pitches in 50 plus games a year.  I mean look at it this way the worst that Gasser could do is go 0-30 while Hader could go 0-50, doesn't matter innings we are talking about affecting the outcome of a game. Pure foolish argument by anyone that a starter will have greater affect then a reliever because of innings pitched.  Also, don't think that pitching the first inning will have the same leverage as pitching the ninth inning.  No stat covers that.  There is a reason why closers get paid better than 3, 4, or number 5 pitchers by MLB teams maybe posters should wake up to this fact there isn't a stat for everything.  Also, Hader as all Brewer fans know has extra value in the clubhouse something stat heads can only guess at with Gasser.  

 

Gasser is on the Lauer level of importance to this team at best.  Hader was on the Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Wily Adames, and Christian Yelich level.  There is no argument about who got the best player in this deal.  To say that Gasser's WAR and Ruiz's WAR should be used to compare to Hader's WAR is plain stupid.  Two players better be greater than one.  Do you think Wily Adames and Christian Yelich are better than Mike Trout because their combined WAR is better?  Seriously?  The game isn't played on paper so quit using stats to back up a statement.  Stats are not the entire reason for any trade.  There is a reason why Moneyball doesn't win the world series very often.  Good teams win the world series.

"Quit using stats to back up a statement." Is this an actual thing now??

[sveumrules]

9 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

Is what the Padres did at the trade deadline be considered as what DS meant as "bites of the apple" approach (or did he mean bytes?)

The Padres have been building up to this for awhile now.

2018 Signed Hosmer for 8/144. Won 66 games.
2019 Signed Machado for 10/300. Won 70 games.
2020 Payroll up to 15th from 23rd/25th in 18/19, win 2nd most games in NL, swept out of NLDS
2021 Payroll jump to 9th, win 79 games, miss playoffs.
2022 Top 5 payroll, 5th seed, currently in NLCS.

Add it all up and since signing Hosmer the Padres have gone 341-367 with an 8-7 (and counting playoff record) while spending around 650 million on payroll.

Over that same time frame the Brewers have gone 395-314 with a 7-10 playoff record while spending around 500 million on payroll.

[Axman59]

6 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't know if it's even realistic to compare the economic realities of the Brewers to a team like the Padres. Those two teams are in different stratospheres in regards to their ability to spend. Unfortunately that's the reality of baseball

San Diego is not normally considered a large market team. In terms of media market San Diego is 27th in the U.S. and Milwaukee is 37th.

I had a conversation with Sandy Alderson in 2005 about the Padres when he was the President of the team (I was a Marine stationed at Camp Pendleton at the time and Sandy is a former Marine and was the guest speaker at our annual USMC Birthday Ball). He lamented that San Diego was actually a small market team because on their southern border is Mexico, which does not count for advertising rates in the U.S., and they had two teams 1.5 to 2 hours to the north. Basically, they were boxed in geographically which dramatically reduced their reach.

Also keep in mind that while Milwaukee is the 37th largest media market, the Brewers reach is well beyond Milwaukee since they are the only team in Wisconsin. Thus, they have viewers/fans in Madison, Fox River Valley, Eau Claire, etc.--and that expands their reach by a fair margin.  (I do recognize there are a number of fans in Kenosha County who follow the Cubs and fans in NW Wisconsin who follow the Twins).

I suspect the Padres are borrowing money to fund their current team. Which certainly is justifiable given the team's value.