Hader VERY BAD for Padres

[Redd Vencher]

57 minutes ago, JRob1125 said:

This was never a World Series caliber team with their absolutely extreme boom or bust offense, and even if this trade cost us the playoffs this year, I still like.

They were 6th in baseball in both 4+ and 5+ run games. They were T-9th fewest in games scoring 2 or fewer runs. It's hard to be much more consistent than they were.

[Robocaller]

9 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Ruiz was said to have very low exit velocity. Like 84MPH? Maybe up to 86?  Now I dunno if that includes balls he put in to play off bunts and he bunted a lot to eschew the EV.  What I see future value in that player is like Billy Hamilton or Ben Revere.  Nothing special at season's end. Not a game changer pitchers fear. Hader a game changer hitters feared.  Then there's Gasser. He sits what 90-92?  Let's say that comp is Eric Lauer or even Zach Davies. That's #3-4 SP that isn't feared as a ceiling with 0 RP threat these days of hard throwers like Hader.  The trade made no sense with the return.  You could have taken any number of the prospects involved in the Soto/Bell trade and dealing with larger upsides.  

Fleeced.

Hope Hader helps lead SD to WS. His career deserves a Championship.

Hader had WAR of -1 with S.D. Let's say he goes back to his career best, 2021 and has 3.4 War in 2023. Add them together and you get 2.4. Lauer had 3.7 WAR over the last two years. If we get 6 years of Gasser as a Lauer clone, that's a win right there. 
I think Ruiz will have a better career than Tyrone Taylor and be a full-time MLer at an earlier age; Taylor had 3.7 WAR the last two seasons alone.

Taylor Rogers had a WAR of -0.5 with the Brewers, so half as terrible as Hader during that time.

Obviously there is greater risk for prospects compared to established pros, but Hader's risk was obvious over the last third of the season.

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Hader had WAR of -1 with S.D. Let's say he goes back to his career best, 2021 and has 3.4 War in 2023. Add them together and you get 2.4. Lauer had 3.7 WAR over the last two years. If we get 6 years of Gasser as a Lauer clone, that's a win right there. 
I think Ruiz will have a better career than Tyrone Taylor and be a full-time MLer at an earlier age; Taylor had 3.7 WAR the last two seasons alone.

Taylor Rogers had a WAR of -0.5 with the Brewers, so half as terrible as Hader during that time.

Obviously there is greater risk for prospects compared to established pros, but Hader's risk was obvious over the last third of the season.

Not to mention, if you hold onto him after a season in which he posted an ERA well over 5 and with a half-season less of control, you're likely getting even less in return. No guarantee that we make the playoffs with Hader. 

[CheezWizHed]

Well, its all fixed now.  The Brewers just signed a Hader clone. 

Lefty that throws in the mid to upper 90s, sweeping slider, and high spin rates.  Except the long crazy hair is on his chin instead of on his head... ?

 

[Hopper]

22 hours ago, Hopper said:

Quick question for all those who continuously support and back every move the Brewers make: (which I believe that sometimes, people do so just to take an opposite view of certain posters, or just to create conflict)

Given what we know now, and what transpired after the trade, how many of you still back the Hader trade and think it was a good thing?

No fluffy answers, no saying things like "we have to wait 5 years to judge the trade" or "we couldn't afford him anyway, so we had to take the best offer" nothing like that.  

No indirect or deflecting answers.

Knowing what we know right now, and how the season ended for the 22 Brewers team, how many would still make that same exact trade today?

 

As I expected, so very few people actually answered my question.

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, Hopper said:

 

As I expected, so very few people actually answered my question.

Telling people not to respond with true things like "we have to wait 5 years to judge the trade" or "we couldn't afford him anyway, so we had to take the best offer" will naturally limit the responses.

Was the Hader trade good? It’s too soon to really judge.

Would I make the same trade again? Yes. There’s no guarantee that not trading Hader results in the Brewers making the playoffs. I think Ruiz/Gasser offer much more future value than one season of Hader at 13-14 million in Arby.

[nate82]

59 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Well, its all fixed now.  The Brewers just signed a Hader clone. 

Lefty that throws in the mid to upper 90s, sweeping slider, and high spin rates.  Except the long crazy hair is on his chin instead of on his head... ?

 

That jersey is awesome!  It could mean so many different things but it is an absolutely awesome baseball jersey.  Could also work for football.  

[Fear The Chorizo]

Ruiz was said to have very low exit velocity. Like 84MPH? Maybe up to 86?  Now I dunno if that includes balls he put in to play off bunts and he bunted a lot to eschew the EV.  

Yes, bunted balls factor into overall exit velocity, so that skews Ruiz's #'s heavily in that regard.

 

For fun, let's look at two players' 2022 minor league stats between AA-AAA levels of competition:

Player A:  22.5 yrs old   CF

PA  562   BA  .331   HR 11 OBP  0.403   SLG  0.480   SB  24    K 63  BB  52

 

Player B:  23.5 yrs old CF/2B

PA  541   BA  .332  HR  16 OBP 0.447  SLG  0.526  SB 85   K94   BB66

 

One of them is Frelick, an unquestioned top-line prospect who most all of us are clamoring to to open up next season as a starting OF in Milwaukee.  The other is Ruiz, who apparently is an afterthought despite having a better statistical season than Frelick at a very similar age.

Ruiz + Gasser is the value returned in the Hader trade....not Rogers/Lamet.  Rogers was acquired as a 1 season bullpen placeholder to fill a roster spot and Lamet must've been added to offset salaries.  The MLB portion of the Hader trade sucked from the Brewers' perspective but wasn't the reason they missed the playoffs this year - the prospects they got back from the Padres are much more valuable to the organization than what 1.5 years of Hader would have been, which is why that trade happened.  If there was a way to root for Hader to succeed on this postseason run while also rooting against the Padres I would....the Padres knocked off the Dodgers so there's at least that, and they did so without their PED-laden SS, but they've obviously gone all-in to make a run and it's just impossible for me to root for a team with Machado on its roster.

 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, Hopper said:

 

As I expected, so very few people actually answered my question.

When you take away two legitimate responses you shouldn't expect many answers.

[CheezWizHed]

2 hours ago, Hopper said:

 

As I expected, so very few people actually answered my question.

You also qualified it to a very small subset of people: Quick question for all those who continuously support and back every move the Brewers make:

Since there aren't many people that qualify, you shouldn't expect many responses.  But of course if they always support and back every move.. the answer to your question is also obvious: Of course they support it. 

For the rest of us...

I think they could've done better by waiting for the offseason.  But with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I'd also do my deck a different way, gotten a different degree in college, and not eaten that burrito for lunch...

Sometimes it isn't worth dwelling on the past.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Ruiz was said to have very low exit velocity. Like 84MPH? Maybe up to 86?  Now I dunno if that includes balls he put in to play off bunts and he bunted a lot to eschew the EV.  

Yes, bunted balls factor into overall exit velocity, so that skews Ruiz's #'s heavily in that regard.

 

For fun, let's look at two players' 2022 minor league stats between AA-AAA levels of competition:

Player A:  22.5 yrs old   CF

PA  562   BA  .331   HR 11 OBP  0.403   SLG  0.480   SB  24    K 63  BB  52

 

Player B:  23.5 yrs old CF/2B

PA  541   BA  .332  HR  16 OBP 0.447  SLG  0.526  SB 85   K94   BB66

 

One of them is Frelick, an unquestioned top-line prospect who most all of us are clamoring to to open up next season as a starting OF in Milwaukee.  The other is Ruiz, who apparently is an afterthought despite having a better statistical season than Frelick at a very similar age.

Ruiz + Gasser is the value returned in the Hader trade....not Rogers/Lamet.  Rogers was acquired as a 1 season bullpen placeholder to fill a roster spot and Lamet must've been added to offset salaries.  The MLB portion of the Hader trade sucked from the Brewers' perspective but wasn't the reason they missed the playoffs this year - the prospects they got back from the Padres are much more valuable to the organization than what 1.5 years of Hader would have been, which is why that trade happened.  If there was a way to root for Hader to succeed on this postseason run while also rooting against the Padres I would....the Padres knocked off the Dodgers so there's at least that, and they did so without their PED-laden SS, but they've obviously gone all-in to make a run and it's just impossible for me to root for a team with Machado on its roster.

 

 

You need to keep in mind that before Ruiz was traded to the Brewers he played in significantly more hitter friendly leagues than Frelick did. 

[treego14]

I miss Josh Hader!

:'(

[Fear The Chorizo]

25 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

You need to keep in mind that before Ruiz was traded to the Brewers he played in significantly more hitter friendly leagues than Frelick did. 

And then Ruiz managed to hit 0.329 with an almost 0.900 OPS in Nashville in roughly 40 games after being traded to the Brewers, and some of Frelick's stats for 2022 came in high A to start the season.

Frelick is the better prospect at this point in their careers, to be sure....but Ruiz is no slouch, either and I think is getting unfairly diminished as part of a trade that sent Hader packing.

[jay87shot]

3 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Well, its all fixed now.  The Brewers just signed a Hader clone. 

Lefty that throws in the mid to upper 90s, sweeping slider, and high spin rates.  Except the long crazy hair is on his chin instead of on his head... ?

 

He looks great, where does a 28 year old who has only pitched independent league start, AA? Nice find, especially because he has never likely had super high end pitching coaches. I wouldn't be surprised if he can add 2-3 mph with the crew and be a crazy nasty. Also that beard plays very well, the gingerbeard cometh.

[Redd Vencher]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Ruiz was said to have very low exit velocity. Like 84MPH? Maybe up to 86?  Now I dunno if that includes balls he put in to play off bunts and he bunted a lot to eschew the EV.  

Yes, bunted balls factor into overall exit velocity, so that skews Ruiz's #'s heavily in that regard.

 

For fun, let's look at two players' 2022 minor league stats between AA-AAA levels of competition:

Player A:  22.5 yrs old   CF

PA  562   BA  .331   HR 11 OBP  0.403   SLG  0.480   SB  24    K 63  BB  52

 

Player B:  23.5 yrs old CF/2B

PA  541   BA  .332  HR  16 OBP 0.447  SLG  0.526  SB 85   K94   BB66

 

One of them is Frelick, an unquestioned top-line prospect who most all of us are clamoring to to open up next season as a starting OF in Milwaukee.  The other is Ruiz, who apparently is an afterthought despite having a better statistical season than Frelick at a very similar age.

Ruiz + Gasser is the value returned in the Hader trade....not Rogers/Lamet.  Rogers was acquired as a 1 season bullpen placeholder to fill a roster spot and Lamet must've been added to offset salaries.  The MLB portion of the Hader trade sucked from the Brewers' perspective but wasn't the reason they missed the playoffs this year - the prospects they got back from the Padres are much more valuable to the organization than what 1.5 years of Hader would have been, which is why that trade happened.  If there was a way to root for Hader to succeed on this postseason run while also rooting against the Padres I would....the Padres knocked off the Dodgers so there's at least that, and they did so without their PED-laden SS, but they've obviously gone all-in to make a run and it's just impossible for me to root for a team with Machado on its roster.

 

 

The only thing I would add is Rogers was a lot better than just a placeholder. Going back to 2017 when Hader entered the league, Rogers was in the top 10 RP in fWAR. He was meant as a slight downgrade from Hader innexchange for those longterm pieces. Bush and Rosenthal were there to make up the difference between Hader and Rogers. While neither Rogers nor Hader were good post trade, Rogers outpitched him. I would definitely make the trade again with everything in hindsight. The hindsight moves would be keepinf Lamet and grabbing another RP instead of Rosenthal.

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

 

Would I make the same trade again? Yes. There’s no guarantee that not trading Hader results in the Brewers making the playoffs. I think Ruiz/Gasser offer much more future value than one season of Hader at 13-14 million in Arby.

But likewise you have to admit, there is no guarantee that Ruiz and Gasser will offer more future value than Hader. 

In 2016, for example, the Brewers traded Will Smith for Phil Bickford and Andrew Susac (According to Sickels the Giants' #2 and #9 prospects in '16) and the Brewers got zip from both of them.

Would I make the same trade again? That's hard to answer, I assume they took lesser prospects in return in order to get Taylor Rogers in the deal to be their closer. It's just hard to disassociate the egg that Rogers, Bush and Rosenthal laid as the Brewers tried to fill the void after trading Hader. 

[igor67]

I might be forgetting someone, but one way to understand Ruiz's prospect profile is that this is probably the only year of the Brewerfan era where Ruiz wouldn't be the number OF prospect in the organization based on what he did last year. There are enough tools that doing what he did at AAA last year I think would have put him ahead of anyone else in any other year including various First rounders in those 20 years. It's actually kind of depressing and surprising how few OFers we've had over that time.

[MrTPlush]

2 hours ago, jay87shot said:

He looks great, where does a 28 year old who has only pitched independent league start, AA? Nice find, especially because he has never likely had super high end pitching coaches. I wouldn't be surprised if he can add 2-3 mph with the crew and be a crazy nasty. Also that beard plays very well, the gingerbeard cometh.

I would send him to Wisconsin, personally. Let him get accustomed to affiliated ball and its pretty close to where he has played for the last handful of years. It is probably a fairly close comparative talent wise to a lot of what he has faced in the independent league. If he pitches well bump him to AA fairly quickly. 

[Robocaller]

7 hours ago, Hopper said:

 

As I expected, so very few people actually answered my question.

that says more about the question than about "people."

 

[Robocaller]

5 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

You also qualified it to a very small subset of people: Quick question for all those who continuously support and back every move the Brewers make:

Since there aren't many people that qualify, you shouldn't expect many responses.  But of course if they always support and back every move.. the answer to your question is also obvious: Of course they support it. 

For the rest of us...

I think they could've done better by waiting for the offseason.  But with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I'd also do my deck a different way, gotten a different degree in college, and not eaten that burrito for lunch...

Sometimes it isn't worth dwelling on the past.

never second-guess a burrito.

unless it gave you food poisoning.

 

[Robocaller]

3 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

But likewise you have to admit, there is no guarantee that Ruiz and Gasser will offer more future value than Hader. 

They'd both basically have to not have a major league career. 6 years for each of them for 1.25 of Hader.

 

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

They'd both basically have to not have a major league career. 6 years for each of them for 1.25 of Hader.

 

Like I said see Bickford and Susac.

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Like I said see Bickford and Susac.

Susac's prospect status had dimmed before we got him, and Bickford was always a high risk guy (made worse by his weed use).  Do you want me to list prospects that did work out, because I don't really see the point. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

22 hours ago, Hopper said:

 

As I expected, so very few people actually answered my question.

Considering the way you crafted your question was a not-so-veiled attempt to create conflict, that isn't surprising.  

[MrTPlush]

15 hours ago, Robocaller said:

They'd both basically have to not have a major league career. 6 years for each of them for 1.25 of Hader.

 

I mean, that's a pretty inaccurate way to look at it. Let's just say Hader would have provided 2.5 WAR had we kept him. 

So if both these prospects have 1 WAR seasons and then a few 0 to 0.3 seasons during a rebuilding time they provided more future value? No

You can't look at in such basic terms. If keeping Hader would have turned the team from a contender to a playoff participant that is pretty invaluable. It is a pretty big loss for next year too, that could certainly be a big reason if we miss the postseason again. We traded one of our best players in arguably the best competitive window the franchise has ever had. Generally speaking, I feel like that number would have to be more like 10 WAR combined to make me feel like we got more future value. If they get traded for good value some day or play a big part on a competitive team that could certainly change that.