Game Thread (9/19/2022): Mets (Scherzer) at Brewers (Burnes) - 6:40 PM CDT

[Eye Black]

[yourout]

Really need Burnes to snap out of his second half funk.

[treego14]

Let's get some jacks against Max!

Mets will take turns against Burnes, BUT

in the end, the only one laughing will be Stearns!

[wibadgers23]

Didn’t realize the Brewers only have 16 games left. I would think it’ll take an absolute minimum of 10 wins, maybe 11 or 12 to sneak past Philly or San Diego.

[wiguy94]

Kind of wish we held back Burnes start another day and went bullpen day today. Would hate for Burnes to pitch a good game tonight only for us to lose because Scherzer pitched slightly better. Really makes it feel like today is a must win because the pitching matchup is heavily against us the next two days. 

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, yourout said:

Really need Burnes to snap out of his second half funk.

I would say he's starting to do that with his last two starts, especially the one against the Giants. Really, it's been one or two misplaced pitches that have haunted him throughout the last month or so. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Kind of wish we held back Burnes start another day and went bullpen day today. Would hate for Burnes to pitch a good game tonight only for us to lose because Scherzer pitched slightly better. Really makes it feel like today is a must win because the pitching matchup is heavily against us the next two days. 

I think the reason they wanted him to start today is because it sets him up to start on regular rest in game 162 should they still be in contention by then. 

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

Didn’t realize the Brewers only have 16 games left. I would think it’ll take an absolute minimum of 10 wins, maybe 11 or 12 to sneak past Philly or San Diego.

I would say that 12 is the minimum and even that might not be good enough. 

I certainly wouldn’t want to count on either the Phillies or Padres losing half of their remaining games. Although their schedules may look a little tougher, it’s hard to know how teams that have their playoff positions locked up are going to approach the last week or two.

The Brewers biggest problem obviously is how to cover innings the next week as they finish the stretch of 10 games in 10 days with only two reliable starting pitchers, followed by Houser and two days of some combination of Alexander and a bullpen game. Maybe Lauer can come back to bolster the starting staff and Ashby can help bolster the bullpen or serve as an opener in a bullpen game. 
 

It’s going to be necessary for the offense to back up the shaky pitching like it did last week to pull out the 3-2 mark. They are really going to be needed in the Cincinnati bandbox where the Brewers pretty much have to win at least 3 of 4 to give themselves a fighting chance in the final homestand. 

 

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Kind of wish we held back Burnes start another day and went bullpen day today. Would hate for Burnes to pitch a good game tonight only for us to lose because Scherzer pitched slightly better. Really makes it feel like today is a must win because the pitching matchup is heavily against us the next two days. 

The Brewers can’t afford to let the opponent dictate what they do.

Scherzer is coming off a stint on the IL and isn’t likely to be going too deep. While the Mets are still trying to win games in their tight division race, they also want to be getting Scherzer ready for the playoffs and I don’t think having him throw 100 pitches in a game today is part of that plan. 
 

The Mets have had some scoring issues recently so tonight would be a good time for Burnes to show his stuff like Woodruff did on Saturday. He can’t afford the few sloppy gopher balls that have torpedoed some of his recent starts. 

[treego14]

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I would say that 12 is the minimum and even that might not be good enough. 

 

 

12 might be the minimum for a near guarantee, but the brewers can probably leapfrog one of the teams with even 10 wins.

Let's say SD goes 8-7 the rest of the way. Brewers need to win 11 to tie them.

Let's say PHL goes 9-7 the rest of the way. Brewers need to win 11 to tie them.

BUT, there's a really good chance that at least one of those teams has a losing record for the rest of the season.

If SD  goes 6-9 the rest of the year, Brewers only need to go 9-7 to tie them.

If PHL goes 7-9 the rest of the year, Brewers only need to go 9-7 to tie them.

Chasing two teams increases our chances a lot.

Of course every game we pick up or fall back from SD and PHL will dramatically change our chances.

 

[Robocaller]

5 minutes ago, treego14 said:

If one of the guys who were on the Brewers in 2021 ends up beating us, I'll be pissed.

[treego14]

[treego14]

22 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

12 might be the minimum for a near guarantee, but the brewers can probably leapfrog one of the teams with even 10 wins.

Let's say SD goes 8-7 the rest of the way. Brewers need to win 11 to tie them.

Let's say PHL goes 9-7 the rest of the way. Brewers need to win 11 to tie them.

BUT, there's a really good chance that at least one of those teams has a losing record for the rest of the season.

If SD  goes 6-9 the rest of the year, Brewers only need to go 9-7 to tie them.

If PHL goes 7-9 the rest of the year, Brewers only need to go 9-7 to tie them.

Chasing two teams increases our chances a lot.

Of course every game we pick up or fall back from SD and PHL will dramatically change our chances.

 

And don't forget tying the Phillies or Padres is NOT good enough ... we have to finish ahead of either of them to get into the playoffs.

[Robocaller]

1 minute ago, treego14 said:

And don't forget tying the Phillies or Padres is NOT good enough ... we have to finish ahead of either of them to get into the playoffs.

Fine. 10 wins it is.

 

[wiguy94]

5 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think the reason they wanted him to start today is because it sets him up to start on regular rest in game 162 should they still be in contention by then. 

They had to pitch him today. Normal rest (4 days) puts him pitching on the 19th, 24th, 29th, and 4th which would make his normal rest the 9th (game 3 of WC round). If he got pushed to tomorrow he could still pitch 4 times in regular season on normal rest but wouldn’t be available in the WC round on normal rest 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

12 might be the minimum for a near guarantee, but the brewers can probably leapfrog one of the teams with even 10 wins.

Let's say SD goes 8-7 the rest of the way. Brewers need to win 11 to tie them.

Let's say PHL goes 9-7 the rest of the way. Brewers need to win 11 to tie them.

BUT, there's a really good chance that at least one of those teams has a losing record for the rest of the season.

If SD  goes 6-9 the rest of the year, Brewers only need to go 9-7 to tie them.

If PHL goes 7-9 the rest of the year, Brewers only need to go 9-7 to tie them.

Chasing two teams increases our chances a lot.

Of course every game we pick up or fall back from SD and PHL will dramatically change our chances.

 

I guess where we differ is with your statement that there’s a “really good chance” that at least one of the Phillies or Padres will lose more than half of their games the rest of the way. 
 

Both teams are playing a lot of games against teams with very little to play for, either because they have no playoff aspirations or because they are playoff teams with their positions locked up (like the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Astros). 
 

I came up with my number of 12 by projecting both the Padres and Phillies to get to 89-73 by going 8-7 and 9-7 respectively. That would force the Brewers to go 12-4 to finish at 90-72 to get a playoff spot. 
 

Maybe this will be like 2008 when the Brewers snagged the wild card because of a sudden collapse by the Mets. I’m not counting on that kind of good fortune this year. I think that if the Brewers want to sneak into the playoffs they’re going to have to go out and take it with a strong finish. 
 

 

[yourout]

13 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I guess where we differ is with your statement that there’s a “really good chance” that at least one of the Phillies or Padres will lose more than half of their games the rest of the way. 
 

Both teams are playing a lot of games against teams with very little to play for, either because they have no playoff aspirations or because they are playoff teams with their positions locked up (like the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Astros). 
 

I came up with my number of 12 by projecting both the Padres and Phillies to get to 89-73 by going 8-7 and 9-7 respectively. That would force the Brewers to go 12-4 to finish at 90-72 to get a playoff spot. 
 

Maybe this will be like 2008 when the Brewers snagged the wild card because of a sudden collapse by the Mets. I’m not counting on that kind of good fortune this year. I think that if the Brewers want to sneak into the playoffs they’re going to have to go out and take it with a strong finish. 
 

 

Ugh.... Don't like those odds.

[Brewcrew82]

21 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I guess where we differ is with your statement that there’s a “really good chance” that at least one of the Phillies or Padres will lose more than half of their games the rest of the way. 
 

Both teams are playing a lot of games against teams with very little to play for, either because they have no playoff aspirations or because they are playoff teams with their positions locked up (like the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Astros). 
 

I came up with my number of 12 by projecting both the Padres and Phillies to get to 89-73 by going 8-7 and 9-7 respectively. That would force the Brewers to go 12-4 to finish at 90-72 to get a playoff spot. 
 

Maybe this will be like 2008 when the Brewers snagged the wild card because of a sudden collapse by the Mets. I’m not counting on that kind of good fortune this year. I think that if the Brewers want to sneak into the playoffs they’re going to have to go out and take it with a strong finish. 
 

 

The Padres play the Cardinals starting tomorrow, and the Cardinals are going to go all-out to win as they haven't clinched anything yet. The Dodgers have been clinched since last week (though they still need to clinch a first round bye), and they've still won every game but one, which is in line with their regular season performance thus far. Not to mention they have injured pitchers like Gonsolin that they need to get back up to speed for the playoffs. I wouldn't expect much of an impact if at all in those cases from having their playoff spots virtually locked up. 

[BruisedCrew]

21 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The Padres play the Cardinals starting tomorrow, and the Cardinals are going to go all-out to win as they haven't clinched anything yet. The Dodgers have been clinched since last week (though they still need to clinch a first round bye), and they've still won every game but one, which is in line with their regular season performance thus far. Not to mention they have injured pitchers like Gonsolin that they need to get back up to speed for the playoffs. I wouldn't expect much of an impact if at all in those cases from having their playoff spots virtually locked up. 

So, do you expect the Padres and/or Phillies to lose more than half of their remaining games?

Fangraphs projects both teams to finish 89-73 and 538 projects the Padres to 89-73 and the Phillies to 88-74. 

[owbc]

I would guess that the most likely scenarios would be 10-6 or 11-5 with the Phillies going 7-9 or 8-8. 

I don't see how the Brewers do any better than that given the terrible back end of their rotation. 

The Phillies and Padres are both known for their ability to choke, so it's a good set of teams to be chasing. If the Brewers get in, I bet it's more of a choke job by the opposition than a Craigtember 12-4 miracle. 

It would be fun to get a little closer just to make things exciting. 

 

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

So, do you expect the Padres and/or Phillies to lose more than half of their remaining games?

Fangraphs projects both teams to finish 89-73 and 538 projects the Padres to 89-73 and the Phillies to 88-74. 

Do I expect it? No. But it's more than possible. I just don't entirely agree with your premise that the Phillies and Padres will be aided by easier than expected schedules due to their opponents that are/or are essentially locks for the playoffs taking it easy. 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, owbc said:

I would guess that the most likely scenarios would be 10-6 or 11-5 with the Phillies going 7-9 or 8-8. 

I don't see how the Brewers do any better than that given the terrible back end of their rotation. 

The Phillies and Padres are both known for their ability to choke, so it's a good set of teams to be chasing. If the Brewers get in, I bet it's more of a choke job by the opposition than a Craigtember 12-4 miracle. 

 

Maybe the Phillies have started the choking process by getting swept in Atlanta this weekend? One can hope. 

[BruisedCrew]

23 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Do I expect it? No. But it's more than possible. I just don't entirely agree with your premise that the Phillies and Padres will be aided by easier than expected schedules due to their opponents that are/or are essentially locks for the playoffs taking it easy. 

You think it’s “more than possible”, but don’t expect it, which sounds like you think it’s less than a 50% chance. Robocaller thinks there’s a “really good chance” which sounds like more than 50-50. Maybe your disagreement is more with him than me.

I did not use the words “taking it easy”, but some of those teams might not have the same level of motivation and incentive as teams that are fighting for their playoff lives. Like when the Cardinals pounded the Brewers four straight times last September before the Brewers had mathematically clinched the division but were virtually assured of winning it. 
 

 

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

You think it’s “more than possible”, but don’t expect it, which sounds like you think it’s less than a 50% chance. Robocaller thinks there’s a “really good chance” which sounds like more than 50-50. Maybe your disagreement is more with him than me.

I did not use the words “taking it easy”, but some of those teams might not have the same level of motivation and incentive as teams that are fighting for their playoff lives. Like when the Cardinals pounded the Brewers four straight times last September before the Brewers had mathematically clinched the division but were virtually assured of winning it. 
 

 

I'm somewhere between likely, which is greater than 50%, and improbable, which is less than 10% or so. So, if that's what Robocaller is saying, then yes I disagree. 

As for your comment, I just don't see much of an effect, save for maybe the Phillies and Astros the last week of the season.