Packers 2023 Discussion Thread

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, LouisEly said:

The Packers were the 12th oldest team in the league last year.  Rodgers, Marcedes Lewis, Cobb, Bakhtiari, Watkins, Jones, Lazard, Jenkins, plus Crosby, Jarran Reed, Campbell, Preston Smith, Amos.  17th oldest in 2021.

That's roster age.  Field age is another.  When the veterans are on IR (Bakhtiari), the field age is even younger.

Just going off the opening day roster, they were 21st last year, and 15th the year before.

https://www.phillyvoice.com/ranking-nfl-teams-age-after-53-man-cutdowns-2022-edition/

But even that is skewed. We're talking about our offense. We have the youngest offense in HISTORY(per Bill Barnwell).

We've had young rosters before, I'd guess the last time it was #1 would be the early Rodgers days, but we still had Driver, Pickett, Woodson...Rodgers was the man, Nick Collins, good leadership. 

 

But you don't need to work as a unit nearly as much on defense as you do on offense. Your OL has to pass off stunts, your WRer needs to break at exactly the right time as the WRer is breaking out of his cut AS the ball is being thrown....so it should be there when he's looking the opposite way. 

This is NOT a feature of the system, this is absolutely a bug. 

 

Edit-Article about Packers youth;

And I wasn't screaming for a veteran WRer (just the opposite). I was good with Marcedes Lewis to help in pass pro, but...in retrospect, it may have helped. Even Cobb to be honest. 

https://www.phillyvoice.com/ranking-nfl-teams-age-after-53-man-cutdowns-2022-edition/

 

[homer]

3 hours ago, Underachiever said:

Yes, I was trying to dig into this, since I had believed the "youngest team" thing for a while. Is it roster age? I saw something that weighted it by snaps played. I don't have an answer. 

The youngest team thing was during Ted's tenure. I think it changed a bit after Gutey took over (until this year).

[BrewerFan]

9 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I would love Corum at 116 if he were available.

RB is always cheap in free agency, so it seems like the perfect draft to take one rookie and complement him with a vet in FA.

I think Evans would be well worth 20M a year at least for 3 years or so. He's so reliable -- I don't think his body of work gets the recognition that it should. 

Failing that, I'm pretty much out on Van Jefferson. He's had opportunity after opportunity in LA and just hasn't ever shown any consistency.

Curtis Samuel is a guy I've always liked, though. He's sneakily underrated, and has always managed to maintain a pretty good target share in offenses with flashier targets. Durability is a bit of a concern. 

Corum is rated 111th and generally viewed as a 4th because...for no good reason he went back for another year of wear and tear at Michigan and he's not a guy you want to sign to an extension. He's got a lot of mileage...and I guess he's smaller. But he's thick, he is so similar to Jones in terms of patience, finding the holes, not looking to bounce everything, but he's capable of doing so and while they call him a "smaller back," why is a 6' 220 pound back considered a power back, but a 5'8 212 pound back not? He's more hard to bring down.

I'm a huge fan of Emanuel Wilson. He's so quick and despite the limited carries, he's so patient. And he's a big, physical runner. I think he's going to be a 1,000 yard rusher(and better than Dillon right now).

Curtis Samuel is a guy I've beaten the drums for when MLF came(whenever he was a FA last so probably after Tyler Ervin). I thought he'd be ideal as a RB/WRer hybrid. Been better at WRer than I expected, not used as much out of the backfield. That's where I LOVE that Corley. He's a RB who plays WRer. Another option as a FA, is Antonio Gibson. I think he costs 3/15 maybe. Criminally underused in Washington(the best run team in the league).

With regard to Evans, is he worth 20M a year? That and more. He should probably get a deal close to Gary's with more GTD money from a team that wants to/can compete next year. I could see the Cards, with ALL their draft equity, picking up Harrison Jr, they're in a perfect spot to pick the 3rd best OT(which varies greatly) and then they can grab Henderson or whomever they like in the 2nd, then focus on the defense. That is the type of team that I think should sign Evans. I'd prefer we take another year, let Bakh, Clark, the dead cap expire, and then go into '25 with ~120M.

I'd trade Jones, Smith...even Campbell depending on the draft equity. I'm thinking you could get a 5th, 7th and if Campbell comes back and plays well and someone who needs a MLBer(like Buffalo) is interested in a 4th.

 

I know that's a bit counterintuitive to the veteran presence we need, but I'm talking about at WRer, not just anywhere. Van Jefferson isn't meant to be a #1 or #2 or really anymore than a depth piece, but he's a good leader and he's played in the system before.

I do think these guys should figure it out with another year, but I think he'd help. 

Now in 2025 after you've had Alt, hopefully another OT such as Mims/Fuaga on the OL(though I realize that's my pipe dream and we'll likely just keep Tom there), you add a guy like Bucky Irvin(he's a 2nd/3rd with his speed); Black Corum, a big blocking TE(Jalin Conyers late on day 3 would be great)...and you have given Love all he needs and you get a more clear picture of what he is.

At THAT point, you also have a better idea of what FA needs you have, if you need to pay Love or move off of him. 

If you are going to step into FA, there are a couple positions I'd look at. Safeties. Budda Baker is a FA I believe, Kyle Dugger, a 6'2 versatile safety(I'm always skeptical of guys who thrive under Belichick), Antonio Winfield, Jeremy Chinn and Xavier McKinney are two guys who've lost a lot of value and could be good fits in very different ways. So that's a wide range from a massive FA contract for a safety, which tend to be underpaid, but Baker is the type of leader you always want, same with Winfield, but he's more of a coverage guy and just a tough, undersized player JUST like his Dad. Chinn is more of a SS, though he lost his starting job, we've seen glimpses and McKinney was really on the ascent before the Giants hired Wink. We'd need to have the right DC to use him and play to his strengths.

WRer-Evans is going to have his...10th straight 1000 yard season. He's a HOFer, he's a jump ball machine. But he feels like he's off our time frame and you're going to be spending all your FA money or most of it on a guy who's going to be 31 next year.

Tee Higgins is a FA who's likely not re-signing with Cincy as they set records on Burrow and  

***Also, Wirfs is a FA...and while Tampa is almost certainly going to aggressively try and sign him, he had void years, so they can't tag him, he's a guy I'd break the bank for...but again, why would TB let him go.

The only other FA is Christian Wilkens. You could sign him to the 4/90 million deal you'd give to Clark, but he has 4 fewer years in the NFL and I think fits the scheme a bit better. 

 

So Connor Williams or Van Jefferson for relatively cheap(though Williams would be a huge upgrade at C).
A number of safeties who are paid almost like RBs in a draft class with good safeties. Think I'd rather sign one than use the 40th pick on a question mark(even if Nubin is a really nice player).

Long shots-Tee, Evans

REAL long shots-Wilkins(though Miami is so far over the cap...that's possible).

As likely to become FAs as Gary is to be traded this off-season, Wirfs.

 

But again, I want to see this offense with another year before spending a bunch on players to push us over the top when Love MAY be our anchor. I don't know or think he is, but...he could be. So '25 would be a better target IMO).

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, homer said:

The youngest team thing was during Ted's tenure. I think it changed a bit after Gutey took over (until this year).

Yeah, when we went from Favre(the team he said was the most talented group he'd ever had) and then Rodgers. I'd guess '07, '08, in that era. 

But again, even then you had vets like Henderson, Driver, Tauscher, Clifton...etc...

[homer]

[adambr2]

Apparently according to analytics, Doubs is actually terrible.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023/11/13/23959070/green-bay-packers-romeo-doubs-stats-touchdowns-yards-per-target-reed-wicks-watson-musgrave?fbclid=IwAR3cxTGeOLVvD2Uakfu9A3r2X6_13dRi1NXsCOs8skyS4ISnA3vD-k8Up58

[BrewerFan]

9 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Apparently according to analytics, Doubs is actually terrible.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023/11/13/23959070/green-bay-packers-romeo-doubs-stats-touchdowns-yards-per-target-reed-wicks-watson-musgrave?fbclid=IwAR3cxTGeOLVvD2Uakfu9A3r2X6_13dRi1NXsCOs8skyS4ISnA3vD-k8Up58

I'm not sure how much stock to put into these analytics for a 2nd year WRer given ALL the other things that play into them. 

Love's accuracy, he has to get the ball to him on time, the OL, and the WRers in this offense aren't making the right reads. I remember Benkert showing a team(IIRC the Raiders) playing Cover4 and all 4 Packers receivers were running deeper routes, but you paused it, and as they were ~10 yards downfield, the DBs were still back-peddling, all 4 yards at least from a Packers WRer and nobody broke off their route while Love's in the backfield under pressure. Just a simple dig there would have been an easy completion and is supposed to be an option for the WRers if you're facing that type of umbrella coverage, but nobody made that read. So it's every possible issue you could have.

 

It feels like pretty much everyone's going to have really poor grades save for...Musgrave and Tom. Football is so dependent on the other 10 guys...unless you're doing a PFF play-by-play grading(even those tend to be flawed as Love and Fields each got a negative grade in Week 1 where Fields fumbled and lost it while Love fumbled, picked it up and throw a 50-yard completion to Musgrave). 

But Doubs seems to ME like he should be the James Jones of this group. He should be the reliable #3 option(maybe 4th) and really excel in that role. We just don't know what Reed, Wicks, Watson...Heath(I like him quite a bit)...who knows what any of them are? Watson is a massively talented player who seems constantly injured, but also very raw. Reed has been impressive. I think he's a #2. 

Despite my undying love for the Fighting Irish' left Tackle, Harrison Jr would be so hard to pass up. I don't think that's a decision they'll have to make though. 

[HarryDoyle]

Good thing stats aren't real.

[HarryDoyle]

It's getting more maddening by the week listening to MLF come to Barry's rescue every week.

[CheezWizHed]

On 11/14/2023 at 6:04 AM, adambr2 said:

Apparently according to analytics, Doubs is actually terrible.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023/11/13/23959070/green-bay-packers-romeo-doubs-stats-touchdowns-yards-per-target-reed-wicks-watson-musgrave?fbclid=IwAR3cxTGeOLVvD2Uakfu9A3r2X6_13dRi1NXsCOs8skyS4ISnA3vD-k8Up58

I referenced my concern with Doubs this year in the Steeler's game thread.  In his second year where most players make a jump, he has plateaued.  He is no better this year than he was at the end of last year.  Ok, not great.  Makes some splashy catches, but is rarely there when the team needs a tough 1st down.  

I had hopes he was a Donald Driver type player - smart, not overly big/fast, good hands, good #2/ave #1 WR.  But he has flat-lined as a #3 at best. Reed and Wicks are looking more like our go-to WRs lately.  I'm really surprised by Doubs lack of impact (other than TDs).  

[homer]

scheme or talent?

 

 

[nate82]

49 minutes ago, homer said:

scheme or talent?

 

 

Scheme, as that looks like a pass rush on the first one.  Usually stunts or slants by your DL are for a pass rush to open up a spot for a blitzing LB. The first one it looks like the defense got caught in a pass defense.  
 

The TD run it looks like the MLB was supposed to cover the outside gap correctly and the safety is supposed to cover the inside gap.  The safety also looked to be way too far back and didn’t recognize run quick enough.

Looks to be a coaching and scheme problem.  The last one it looks like the DL tried to jump the inside gap and then got manhandled by the OL. 

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, homer said:

scheme or talent?

 

 

I referenced this in my wrap-up of the game Sunday (I swear someone is reading our threads and stealing the ideas. 😂). 

My take is scheme.  It is happening on early downs and in run formations, so if they are doing pass rush stunts... it is scheme.  If this is some sort of run coverage... it is dumb and also scheme related.  They are getting an OL into that hole to block the MLB, so there isn't much chance of him covering it.  

In the second half, they did far less of this... and not surprisingly, the run defense solidified as did the defense as a whole. 

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, nate82 said:

Scheme, as that looks like a pass rush on the first one.  Usually stunts or slants by your DL are for a pass rush to open up a spot for a blitzing LB. The first one it looks like the defense got caught in a pass defense.  
 

The TD run it looks like the MLB was supposed to cover the outside gap correctly and the safety is supposed to cover the inside gap.  The safety also looked to be way too far back and didn’t recognize run quick enough.

Looks to be a coaching and scheme problem.  The last one it looks like the DL tried to jump the inside gap and then got manhandled by the OL. 

No, the primary goal of particular slants is not to free up pass rushers, they're to free up your LBers and clog up the OL. This has become even more true with the expansion of the ZBS. If you're slanting to the strong side, it completely throws off each OL responsibility, crosses the face of the OL and now they can't climb to the next level whereas your LBers can come in and fill. 

 

If you wanted to argue that stunts are more for pass rushing...I think you'd probably be right...though even there you have specific run stunts. 

 

That said, I may not completely agree with your take on that, I think you'd have to be a fool to not agree with the underlying point, it's a schematic problem. A 3-4 should make life so much easier on LBers. MLF got all pissy, but he's right, when you're playing in a "Nickel," with 2 OLBers in our system, you're really playing with 4 DL. Gary was a 3 tech in College, Van Ness or Smith are both bigger or as big as most 4-3 DEs.

So EVEN when you play a 4 man front on a 'and-goal' situation, you should have enough DL, assuming they maintain gap integrity to let your LBers come up and fill the holes. 

 

Joe Barry is just bad across the board. His philosophy when it comes to the DL, as he's explained it has been bad since he got here and makes drafting the likes of Wyatt, Wooden, Brooks...even signing Clark rather pointless. You could save 30M and a at least a 1st by just going out and drafting a bunch of big Howard Green-type run stuffers. 

 

The only consistent theme across his defense is a passive, play it safe type ideology. Don't want penetrating DL, you want them to play 2 gap(which is killing Wyatt). You play straight up with your backers constantly...which is fine. And your DBs are always playing this C3/C4 coverage where guys have 10 yards of cushion every play. 

 

I try and make the steal man arguments for these coaches as there's so much that goes into all these sports, it's often hard to see if the problem is actually coaching or talent(see the Brewers hitting coaches). There is not one to be made with Barry. He's bad, his scheme is bad. It's passive despite having ample talent. We play on our heels despite drafting bigger, aggressive athletes and they're supposed to sit back and wait.

 

Give Belichick this defense, it's top3. Give Tomlin this D, top 3. Give Florres this defense it's top3 . Let me run this defense and it's not any worse! I'm just sitting in a cover 1 man all game long, I'm playing a 4-3 front(nickel front with a 3rd safety who's bigger and more physical) on passing downs and just a base 3-4 on short yardage. That's 5 DL, they can all play single gap, get up field, start hitting guys in the backfield and then you have your LBers to come clean things up or safeties. 

That's an overly simplistic idea that smart OCs would pick apart and I'm still confident it'd be better than Barry. 

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I referenced this in my wrap-up of the game Sunday (I swear someone is reading our threads and stealing the ideas. 😂). 

My take is scheme.  It is happening on early downs and in run formations, so if they are doing pass rush stunts... it is scheme.  If this is some sort of run coverage... it is dumb and also scheme related.  They are getting an OL into that hole to block the MLB, so there isn't much chance of him covering it.  

In the second half, they did far less of this... and not surprisingly, the run defense solidified as did the defense as a whole. 

What they're attempting to do is have the NT eat up two blockers. That's one of his core principles. The DEs are supposed to do the same if a double is coming, otherwise just maintain their gap.

But it should go without saying, you don't have your NT JUMPING away from the strong side(and quite obviously the play side as Slaton does here) when your DEs are slanting to the strong side, just so he can get a piece of the center so he can't get up to the LBer. 

It's also just silly. I'm pretty sure these are all designed to stop the run, but he's slanting to the strong side, and then weak side two other times. 

 

[CheezWizHed]

On 11/15/2023 at 7:08 PM, BrewerFan said:

What they're attempting to do is have the NT eat up two blockers. That's one of his core principles. The DEs are supposed to do the same if a double is coming, otherwise just maintain their gap.

But it should go without saying, you don't have your NT JUMPING away from the strong side(and quite obviously the play side as Slaton does here) when your DEs are slanting to the strong side, just so he can get a piece of the center so he can't get up to the LBer. 

It's also just silly. I'm pretty sure these are all designed to stop the run, but he's slanting to the strong side, and then weak side two other times. 

 

Yeah, i can't say much about the intent of what they are doing...., but what I saw was that one guard (the one on the opposite side of the "jump" was completely free to go to the second level.  And often, a pulling player (TE, FB, G, whatever) following them in the hole.  Not sure we are telegraphing our plays (hello Jim Harbaugh!) or what... but they were consistently getting the gap and it was WIDE open.  I could've read and ran through that.  

Then it was clear they adjusted to not do these jump cuts in the second half and it was a stark difference. I don't think Berry was outcoached this time... I think he outplayed himself.  We went back to "simple" and did much better. 

[homer]

Apparently Luke Musgrave is in the hospital from an abdominal injury he suffered on Sunday. Looks like he just landed on the ball during a 3rd quarter catch. Stayed in the game and played through it.

[BrewerFan]

On 11/17/2023 at 12:17 PM, CheezWizHed said:

Yeah, i can't say much about the intent of what they are doing...., but what I saw was that one guard (the one on the opposite side of the "jump" was completely free to go to the second level.  And often, a pulling player (TE, FB, G, whatever) following them in the hole.  Not sure we are telegraphing our plays (hello Jim Harbaugh!) or what... but they were consistently getting the gap and it was WIDE open.  I could've read and ran through that.  

Then it was clear they adjusted to not do these jump cuts in the second half and it was a stark difference. I don't think Berry was outcoached this time... I think he outplayed himself.  We went back to "simple" and did much better. 

He did do that, but he also went back to different-looking fronts. We had one where you had 4 linemen with their hand in the dirt(IIRC it was Clark, Brooks, Wyatt, Van Ness), and then Gary standing up, Quay outside of him and they got almost immediate pressure.

It looked SO similar to what the Chiefs were doing last night(what they always do) that forces the OL to identify who they're going to block and gives Clark or Wyatt or Gary a 1 on 1, it was a HUGE jump from Barry. I still hope they get rid of him because I just don't think he's got the guts to do that consistently and he wants to play it conservative ala Vic Fangio, sit back in coverage and we have too much talent to play like that. 

What's the point of Alexander and Stokes and now Valentine who everyone has raved about since camp, these guys who thrive in man coverage and then these pass rushers who can win 1 on 1 if you're going to try and play it like we did with Ed Donatell with limited athleticism and then Sharper on the backend who took a lot of chances and rely on getting turnovers. 

[BrewerFan]

50 minutes ago, homer said:

Apparently Luke Musgrave is in the hospital from an abdominal injury he suffered on Sunday. Looks like he just landed on the ball during a 3rd quarter catch. Stayed in the game and played through it.

Sounds like it's pretty bad. And people were questioning his toughness as he's missed some time this year(I thought mostly due to head injuries which is not really something he can prevent). 

But definitely scary. 

 

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2023/11/21/packers-te-luke-musgrave-hospitalized-with-significant-abdomen-injury/

[yourout]

20 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Sounds like it's pretty bad. And people were questioning his toughness as he's missed some time this year(I thought mostly due to head injuries which is not really something he can prevent). 

But definitely scary. 

 

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2023/11/21/packers-te-luke-musgrave-hospitalized-with-significant-abdomen-injury/

Wow.. that could be a whole host of things from bruised kidneys and spleen to bruised liver. All are nothing to mess around with.

[BrewerFan]

Just now, yourout said:

Wow.. that could be a whole host of things from bruised kidneys and spleen to bruised liver. All are nothing to mess around with.

It could be even worse than that. Could be a lacerated liver, kidney and internal bleeding. I want tough guys on the team, but if it's head, neck, or something in your chest/stomach(organs)...get that checked out. You wanna play through a broken hand, a dislocated shoulder that you come back from early, a sprained ankle, cool. But nobody wants to see 23-year-old kids suffering injuries to their internal organs or repeated concussions for entertainment. 

[igor67]

More opening plays like that will do nicely

[Strike4]

What an opening drive!!!

[Strike4]

Credit yo LeFleur for taking the kick and sending a message.

Could we actually be getting a little swagger?

[adambr2]

Joe Barry -- getting the least out of the most for 15 years.