Packers 2023 Discussion Thread

[kestrel79]

On 10/25/2023 at 11:49 PM, BrewerFan said:

Also keep in mind Barry wasn't his first choice. He was also forced to keep Pettine an additional year and wanted to hire Rizzi, the STs Guru that the Saints ended up paying like an NFL Coach.

And also that this was a 6 win team when he took over. So we know that twice he didn't have complete autonomy over his Coordinators and a third he didn't get the Coordinator he wanted.

 

I think these are growing pains made worse by again losing Bakh...Jenkins hasn't been back to normal and their young WRers/TEs look talented, but they're just young. 

 

As for him not being a "Sean McVay" hire, McVay was 5-12 last year. The Packers trounced him pretty good in the playoffs. If we had a healthy Bakh...I think MLF has a SB and all the cache, but it's a bit funny the degree of certainty we've got now that MLF ISN'T the guy. 

 

No, not a chance on McCarthy. I really doubt we're high enough to pick Maye and it'd be sillly...IMO, to give up on him with this youth and a terrible OL ONE season in.

I guess you consider it if you can get Caleb Williams...maybe Maye, but nobody else is worth it. 

It also helps to really understand the problems, not just "offense sucks-QB sucks-coach sucks."

Love has done enough that it's obvious he's capable of being a high-end starter.
He's also struggled at times as....I think pretty much everyone expected. 

If you can't get one of the top 2...and I don't see how it's possible to finish below Chicago and Carolina, so it's really just the one at that point(and if Chicago is 1 and 2, they'd be wise to trade #2 to a team that needs Maye which means giving up future 1sts and less likely to be to GB) again, 

Other than that, you draft one of the OTs. At least one of the OTs and I'd draft Two in this class.

 

Anyway, an actual breakdown on how 'bad' Love was.

 

I like following this guy. I agree it's not all the QB here. The WRs are part of it as well. I remember after that play linked above where the 2 WRs ran the same route, MLF looked super pissed on the sideline yelling at them. You could tell something wasn't executed right.

I'd like to see the Defense play better, and the running game step up to help out the passing game and Love's play. But with the injuries not sure that will happen we'll see.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, kestrel79 said:

I like following this guy. I agree it's not all the QB here. The WRs are part of it as well. I remember after that play linked above where the 2 WRs ran the same route, MLF looked super pissed on the sideline yelling at them. You could tell something wasn't executed right.

I'd like to see the Defense play better, and the running game step up to help out the passing game and Love's play. But with the injuries not sure that will happen we'll see.

If you click on it, it shows a LOT more than just this one play. It shows the Defense in Cover4 and the communication isn't there for the QB and WRer to run a quick out(Love looks like he's ready to throw, but they're just running into coverage). There are others as well.

Certainly, some of it is Love's fault, but we thought we were giving him a lot of help and then Jones gets hurt in week 1, Bakh is done after 1, and Watson in and out. Musgrave has taken a couple of BIG shots leading to missed time. 

[MrTPlush]

I dream of a Top 3 pick to probably draft one of the two top QBs. However, something tells me our schedule is too light to basically win no more games. I also don’t think we suck enough for it either.

[LouisEly]

How the heck did the Viqueens luck out and sign Dalton Risner two weeks into the season for 1/$4M?  Having some cap space to sign him would have been nice.

He's only ever played LG, but if he can play RG I'd love to sign him as a FA.  Projected $28M in cap space, $49M if they cut Bakh.  Need to spend some of that on OL.

[CheezWizHed]

On 10/26/2023 at 12:57 PM, BrewerFan said:

I think this is the best...run down of Jordan Love I've seen so far.

I'll just say I flatly disagree with the premise that you have to decide on signing him by the end of this year. I'd rather wait until his final year or when he's due to be a FA than overpay him. But setting that aside...it's a good read;

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/10/25/23931156/jordan-love-green-bay-packers-offense-contract-dilemma

He is a FA next year.  Packers declined his 5th year option. 

 

[adambr2]

45 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

He is a FA next year.  Packers declined his 5th year option. 

 

He's not a FA after 2023. They extended him through 2024 to basically get an out that picking up the option wouldn't give them. They can move on but there will be some dead money if they do. 

[CheezWizHed]

12 hours ago, adambr2 said:

He's not a FA after 2023. They extended him through 2024 to basically get an out that picking up the option wouldn't give them. They can move on but there will be some dead money if they do. 

Doh.  Forgot about that.  $22.5M more next year.  

[homer]

Not having Rodgers $40 million dead cap money will help next year. I think Gute gets a chance to get out from under that.

[adambr2]

1 minute ago, homer said:

Not having Rodgers $40 million dead cap money will help next year. I think Gute gets a chance to get out from under that.

I guess I'm looking for what Gute has really accomplished for us that would give anyone pause at moving on. The 2020, as I understand has been beaten to death, was an absolute disaster, and many of us felt that way about it well before we have the advantage of hindsight. I'm certainly not the most glass half-full, but when it comes to the draft I typically take the approach of, "well, let's wait and see." Not 2020. It made no sense. I'm not going to say it's impossible for Love to end up salvaging it, but early returns are obviously not good. 

I think the most damning indictment of Gute was his handling of the 2022 offseason. Everyone would have understood if he had gone all-in once more. Everyone would have understood if he wanted to turn the page and move forward with his guy, and take the huge haul for Rodgers while it was available to him. Instead he did NEITHER, signed Rodgers, then traded Adams and moved forward with a group of young receivers supplemented by Sammy Watkins, of all people. It was an inexplicable sequence of events and the results were another predictable disaster.

What are Gute's big "wins"? Maybe Jaire, Jenkins and Gary, who took several years to get there? 

That's a pretty darn short list of big wins over a 5 year tenure given the severity of the mistakes.

[endaround]

21 minutes ago, homer said:

Not having Rodgers $40 million dead cap money will help next year. I think Gute gets a chance to get out from under that.

Already spent on Gary.

[MrTPlush]

On 10/26/2023 at 12:57 PM, BrewerFan said:

I think this is the best...run down of Jordan Love I've seen so far.

I'll just say I flatly disagree with the premise that you have to decide on signing him by the end of this year. I'd rather wait until his final year or when he's due to be a FA than overpay him. But setting that aside...it's a good read;

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/10/25/23931156/jordan-love-green-bay-packers-offense-contract-dilemma

Yah, that doesn’t make sense. I’d Love looks good enough next year you just franchise tag him and sign him to an extension of sorts. His Packers future can be locked in past next year.

Also, the writer could have probably found a better INT that wasn’t Love’s fault. Watson running a route slightly angled wrong takes little to no blame off Love for throwing a pick. He has eyeballs, he didn’t use them. Now if the WR ran the wrong route and suddenly stops when he should have kept going…yah, that ain’t on Love. He probably has had on of those this year.

Love does just fine being one of the worst QBs in the league without assistance. The guy doesn’t do anything to deserve us to feel bad for him and start pointing the finger elsewhere. When he gets good blocking, wide open receivers, or help from the run game he still finds away to suck more than do anything useful. The only thing I feel for him on, that the writer did point out in his article, is the team around him makes it really hard to get into a rhythm and sustain some drives. The rest of the offense can’t afford a missed block or drop because Love is good for a bad pass 1/3 passes. Love can’t afford to make a bad pass because 1/3 times the offense will blow a block or drop the ball. Everyone sucks and no one is good enough to help elevate the offense. Healthy Jones maybe…but clearly he isn’t healthy.

[CheezWizHed]

Gute's good moves:

FA Signings: Z Smith, P Smith, Amos,  Turner, Lewis, Graham, Campbell, Douglas, Also some good band-aid signings like Wagner and Kelly (short term, but helped fill a need). Note how many of these were early when we had cap space.  He was very limited the last few years.

Draft picks: Alexander, Jenkins, MVS, Lazard (UDFA), Love*, JRJ, Slaton, McDuffie, Tom, Quay, Wyatt, Doubs, Reed, Brooks, Valentine, Carlson - noting a bit lower "expectation" on the lower draft picks.  Starters found the 4th round and later are wins to me. 

* - I include Love for one simple point that will be debated... It woke up Rodgers and he played with a chip on his shoulder after two years of decline.  Doesn't matter if Love flops himself... I think the pick was worth it. 

Overall, I'd say Gute is:

FA signings: A

Draft: B (I'd really want to dig in and compare to get this a bit better, but gut feel)

Team management (hiring coaches, communications, extensions, and player management): D

• Dealing with Rodgers was poor... but Rodger's himself is part of that blame (i.e. I live in an area with poor cell phone reception???).  
• MLF seemed like a good hire at the time, but he doesn't seem to build his supporting team well.  I remember at the time of his hire there was much discussion about his preferred OC/DC coaches and below them... no one he wanted was available, so his other hires seemed rushed and random.  Of course Joe Barry has been a headscratcher. Not sure how all that reflects on Gute, but not well overall. 
• He seems decent at extending the right people at the right time... Some key people were let go and most of those decisions seemed sound for the $$ that was asked.  A few misses on extending people he should've walked away from.
• Davante trade and Rodgers extension timing seemed odd.  Possibly just poor timing.  

But a big chunk of what we are dealing with now (very young team) is paying the piper for trying to keep Rodger's SB window open.  

[Fear The Chorizo]

MLF seemed like a good hire at the time, but he doesn't seem to build his supporting team well.

I think MLF has done a poor job at building his second supporting team, particularly on offense, given the fact most of the key cogs in his initial supporting team left for promotions elsewhere a couple seasons ago.  The internal promotions of guys from their lower roles into OC and other position grouping coaches seems to have largely been duds.  I think his biggest weakness as a head coach has more to do with poor team discipline and a lack of accountability, and that really shows out with young players.

MLF would have done himself a ton of favors by not botching the D Coordinator hire after Pettine was canned.  Berry has been a failure despite almost all of GB's significant draft capital and free agent dollars dedicated towards it and it looks worse the longer he's around.  That extended focus on improving defense is not the reason the offense is by far and away the league's lowest salaried side of the ball in the NFL after Adams and Rodgers have left.  

That being said, I think if this season totally goes off the rails and there's no signs of development/improvement, both Gute and MLF should be shown the door despite the fact Gute has been decent at drafting, and when he's got cap space to play with he has done well in free agency.  Keep in mind, this team finished 8-9 with a healthy Rodgers as a starter last season, so the roster talent was already in severe decline due to bloated veteran salary cap #s and being forced to go young wherever they could.  Being into the 2nd year of that youth movement, some growing pains are par for the course but significant regression during the course of this season leads to blaming a mix of both poor coaching/development and questioning whether the right young players are even in the building to begin with.  If it stays really bad the rest of this season, you've got to take a long look at both Gute and MLF because they're the ones responsible for both who's in the building and how they're being developed.

[homer]

How much say does MLF get in building a roster?

[CheezWizHed]

7 minutes ago, homer said:

How much say does MLF get in building a roster?

Less than Rodgers did (not sure if I should put that in blue or not...).  Certainly he has some.  Cuts would mostly be his to make I'd imagine.  Less so on the bringing guys in aspect. 

20 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

That being said, I think if this season totally goes off the rails and there's no signs of development/improvement, both Gute and MLF should be shown the door despite the fact Gute has been decent at drafting, and when he's got cap space to play with he has done well in free agency.  Keep in mind, this team finished 8-9 with a healthy Rodgers as a starter last season, so the roster talent was already in severe decline due to bloated veteran salary cap #s and being forced to go young wherever they could.  Being into the 2nd year of that youth movement, some growing pains are par for the course but significant regression during the course of this season leads to blaming a mix of both poor coaching/development and questioning whether the right young players are even in the building to begin with.  If it stays really bad the rest of this season, you've got to take a long look at both Gute and MLF because they're the ones responsible for both who's in the building and how they're being developed.

Yes, that could be a distinct possibility. My guess is all three of Love, MLF, and Gute get another year.  Maybe a 33% chance MLF goes.  20% chance Gute goes too. 

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I think the most damning indictment of Gute was his handling of the 2022 offseason. Everyone would have understood if he had gone all-in once more. Everyone would have understood if he wanted to turn the page and move forward with his guy, and take the huge haul for Rodgers while it was available to him. Instead he did NEITHER, signed Rodgers, then traded Adams and moved forward with a group of young receivers supplemented by Sammy Watkins, of all people. It was an inexplicable sequence of events and the results were another predictable disaster.

Go back and re-read what happened prior to the 2022 season.  The events with Rodgers and Adams are not independent of each other. 

• Rodgers was waffling between playing for the Packers, retiring, or demanding a trade to another team.  That piece had to fall into place first before anything happened with Adams. 
• Rodgers didn't announce until March 8th his intentions to return to the Packers.  March 8th was also the deadline for placing the franchise tag on Adams.  The Packers franchise tagged Adams on March 8th.
• On March 14th, Adams said that he wouldn't play for the franchise tag.
• The Packers tried to extend Adams, and they offered Adams more money than the Raiders did, but Adams wanted to realize a "lifelong dream" to play for the Raiders with his college teammate David Carr.
• The Packers traded Adams on March 18th.

But, yeah, any excuse to purport the narrative that Gute is incompetent...

[nate82]

6 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

But, yeah, any excuse to purport the narrative that Gute is incompetent...

I swore there was an article where Adams said he wanted a commitment from Rodgers that he would be there for the next few years but never got an answer.  

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

I swore there was an article where Adams said he wanted a commitment from Rodgers that he would be there for the next few years but never got an answer.  

Rodger's cellphone coverage was notoriously spotty! 😂

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

I swore there was an article where Adams said he wanted a commitment from Rodgers that he would be there for the next few years but never got an answer.  

I mean, Rodgers did ink a longterm extension on March 15th, likely giving the Packers an opportunity to make the offer they did to Adams for a new contract to finish his career in GB.  There really isn't much more of a commitment both Rodgers and the Packers could have made at that moment that he'd be there the next few years if Adams opted to sign.  Did he want a pinky swear or something?  If there was any sort of story like that floating around, it would've likely been during the 2021 season when Adams may have been approached for an extension at that time.

[HarryDoyle]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

I swore there was an article where Adams said he wanted a commitment from Rodgers that he would be there for the next few years but never got an answer.  

Adams recently did an interview with Rich Eisen and confirmed he left Green Bay because Rodgers was as good as gone.

[adambr2]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Go back and re-read what happened prior to the 2022 season.  The events with Rodgers and Adams are not independent of each other. 

• Rodgers was waffling between playing for the Packers, retiring, or demanding a trade to another team.  That piece had to fall into place first before anything happened with Adams. 
• Rodgers didn't announce until March 8th his intentions to return to the Packers.  March 8th was also the deadline for placing the franchise tag on Adams.  The Packers franchise tagged Adams on March 8th.
• On March 14th, Adams said that he wouldn't play for the franchise tag.
• The Packers tried to extend Adams, and they offered Adams more money than the Raiders did, but Adams wanted to realize a "lifelong dream" to play for the Raiders with his college teammate David Carr.
• The Packers traded Adams on March 18th.

But, yeah, any excuse to purport the narrative that Gute is incompetent...

Not a narrative, just the facts -- sorry Louis, Gute doesn't get a pass just because the events were independent of each other. It's your job as GM to have the pulse of both individual situations and be able to plan accordingly as to whether you're going to be able to keep the band together. You want to excuse him for being left holding the enormous Rodgers bag with no WR1 just because Adams asked out after the extension? Really?

It was the worst possible outcome in that scenario, and Gutekunst absolutely mismanaged the situation, and that's been the opinion of numerous sportswriters, not just myself. 

By the way, Adams has since said he would have signed the extension to stay in Green Bay had it been earlier and not in the 11th hour. 

[homer]

What if the Packers had stayed put in the 2020 draft and taken Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman.

[adambr2]

9 minutes ago, homer said:

What if the Packers had stayed put in the 2020 draft and taken Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman.

I would have liked that a lot better. 

I think I'm less irritated about Love when it comes to the 2020 draft as I am about using Day 2 picks on dime a dozen a players like Dillon and Josiah Deguara.

[HarveysWBs]

2 minutes ago, homer said:

What if the Packers had stayed put in the 2020 draft and taken Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman.

Cynical me says unless one of them is giving his knee to Bakhtiari, it probably doesn’t change anything vis-a-vis a title.

But big-picture, I think opinions of Gutekunst would be drastically improved if Gute had picked Higgins over Love, IF (and this is the key assumption) Rodgers still took the year 2 leap in MLF’s system.  

The stakes of that draft pick were just so high that anything less than another SB win under Rodgers or a smooth transition to Love would be viewed as a massive failure.  And it’s looking like Gute is going to miss on both those outcomes.

[homer]

10 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I would have liked that a lot better. 

I think I'm less irritated about Love when it comes to the 2020 draft as I am about using Day 2 picks on dime a dozen a players like Dillon and Josiah Deguara.

Yeah I was not thrilled with either of those picks when they made them. I thought both were picked at least a round early.