What would a Corbin Burnes Trade Look Like?

[wiguy94]

32 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Maybe, though Tiedemann still remains a level or two below Painter and Rodriguez. Jays also don’t have anyone else to headline a Burnes trade. 
 

But I agree that the most likely scenario at this point is Burnes to LAD in the off-season for some combination of Miller, Stone, Pepiot, NastrinI, and Sheehan.

Agree that at the moment he's below those guys, but I'm guessing the Jays are very high on him. LHSP that can throw 99 do not grow on trees. Just feels like teams prospect hug high level pitching prospects these days.

[jay87shot]

I would think the Mets would be a good bet as well, they spent a ton of money and have a older staff. If Scherzer or Verlander get hurt the do have a good enough system to get Burnes. Baty would be a good start if he isn't playing great at that point of the year. I doubt we would want Parada or Alvarez but we could turn it into a 3 team deal. 

Baty, Parada, Mauricio, and Tidwell would be a solid package and we could then flip Parada for something else or just have him and Quero both develop and trade one in the future.

We get Baty, German Marquez, Ronny Mauricio, Blade Tidwell, and a mid level Rockies prospect, Rockies get Parada and the Mets get Burnes

 

[Brewcrew82]

45 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I would think the Mets would be a good bet as well, they spent a ton of money and have a older staff. If Scherzer or Verlander get hurt the do have a good enough system to get Burnes. Baty would be a good start if he isn't playing great at that point of the year. I doubt we would want Parada or Alvarez but we could turn it into a 3 team deal. 

Baty, Parada, Mauricio, and Tidwell would be a solid package and we could then flip Parada for something else or just have him and Quero both develop and trade one in the future.

We get Baty, German Marquez, Ronny Mauricio, Blade Tidwell, and a mid level Rockies prospect, Rockies get Parada and the Mets get Burnes

 

I’d much rather deal with the Dodgers imo. That return looks underwhelming. Then again, I’m not a big fan of Baty or Mauricio.
 

With the Dodgers, we could even package Adames and Burnes together.

[brewcrewdue80]

Cleveland could be an interesting team that could use Burnes or Woodruff.  They sit with 7 prospects in the MLB top 100.  3 of them pitchers.  They also graduated former 40s-50s Nolan Jones as an OF displacing him from 3rd base with Ramirez locked in til 2028 there.   Shane Bieber sits like Burnes and Woodruff with just another year remaining after 2023.  Quantrill and Plesac another 2 years after this season. 

Gavin Williams, Nolan Jones, and Tanner Bibee.  That's be current #42 and #65 with Jones as a former #50 roughly.  Probably look to pry a RP in the making as well.  I'm seeing a Joey Cantillo who looks the swingman RP part.  Jones could take on the 3b role in the future and you get 2 solid looking SPs to call up around the time all our guys depart after 2024.

 

Forgot to add why does Cleveland do this?  because their staff isn't stout and could use the addition to go on a run.  They don't really have the depth backup to maintain a full season.  Their top guy Bieber as noted leaves after 2024 and without the future looking bright on their pitching prospects, they can shoot for what may be a weakened AL Championship.  Jones being out of position and at a position Cleveland is good with and growing in the minors, easy to trade off.

[DR28]

Nolan Jones isnt with Cleveland anymore, they traded him to Colorado.

And I can't see Cleveland trading for someone they know they cant afford.

[wallus]

2 hours ago, DR28 said:

Nolan Jones isnt with Cleveland anymore, they traded him to Colorado.

And I can't see Cleveland trading for someone they know they cant afford.

Cleveland spends even less than we do so no chance they are interested. 

[Profbratsch]

While I understand that many of you feel that other teams might balk at dealing for Burnes as a short-term rental, I believe owners like Steve Cohen have shown they are willing to think big-and spend big. Don't discount a substantial extension if a team such as the Mets or Phillies were to acquire Corbin.

BTW, his Cy Young Award is only two years removed at present. That is a pretty solid bargaining chip! 😉

[nate82]

I just don't see Cleveland giving up a big time prospect for Burnes.  I think this is the most that Cleveland would offer for Burnes: Espino RHP, Martinez SS and Valera OF.  I don't see them giving up Williams which at that point it is just not worth it trading with Cleveland. 

[Lathund]

With regards to the Mets, I don't find them all that likely tbh. The statement that they don't care about the future isn't accurate IMO. They've even rather openly said that a big reason why they spend like they do right now is so that they can be competitive without having to sell the farm. I.e they spend big on free agents while restocking the farm. Much of the money is tied up in shorter deals (Scherzer and Verlander are off the books after 2024, and that's 86m right there). The only true long term deals are Lindor (9 years left), Nimmo (8 years) and (kind of) Diaz and Senga (5 years). They'll probably still be among the highest payroll teams even after shifting strategy, but it won't be this extreme. 

So I don't think they're a team all that likely to send a bunch of top prospects over. I suppose they might do it if they were allowed to discuss (and reach) an extension along with the trade, but I still don't find it all that likely. Makes more sense to me that they'd wait until (if) he reaches FA and grab him then. 

[MadThinker88]

On 3/3/2023 at 3:24 AM, brewcrewdue80 said:

Cleveland could be an interesting team that could use Burnes or Woodruff.  They sit with 7 prospects in the MLB top 100.  3 of them pitchers.  They also graduated former 40s-50s Nolan Jones as an OF displacing him from 3rd base with Ramirez locked in til 2028 there.   Shane Bieber sits like Burnes and Woodruff with just another year remaining after 2023.  Quantrill and Plesac another 2 years after this season. 

Gavin Williams, Nolan Jones, and Tanner Bibee.  That's be current #42 and #65 with Jones as a former #50 roughly.  Probably look to pry a RP in the making as well.  I'm seeing a Joey Cantillo who looks the swingman RP part.  Jones could take on the 3b role in the future and you get 2 solid looking SPs to call up around the time all our guys depart after 2024.

 

Forgot to add why does Cleveland do this?  because their staff isn't stout and could use the addition to go on a run.  They don't really have the depth backup to maintain a full season.  Their top guy Bieber as noted leaves after 2024 and without the future looking bright on their pitching prospects, they can shoot for what may be a weakened AL Championship.  Jones being out of position and at a position Cleveland is good with and growing in the minors, easy to trade off.

Cleveland is not making that deal for multiple reasons..

I also find it curious how you described the CLE pitching prospects (in bold above)...   Pitching, Middle INF and outrageous depth are the key traits of the CLE farm system that have a consensus ranking between #3 and #5 in baseball this year.  If the CLE pitching future is not bright, how dim is the pitching future for MKE in comparison???

[MadThinker88]

On 3/3/2023 at 10:14 PM, nate82 said:

I just don't see Cleveland giving up a big time prospect for Burnes.  I think this is the most that Cleveland would offer for Burnes: Espino RHP, Martinez SS and Valera OF.  I don't see them giving up Williams which at that point it is just not worth it trading with Cleveland. 

Heck, Espino & Valera are hurt right now...  If those 2 are healthy & performing, they might be filling roles in CLE by the trade deadline.  Valera is already on the 40 man roster & Espino is Rule 5 eligible after this season.

It will be interesting to watch how CLE handles its 40 man roster throughout the season.  They already have a young overall group and there are even more young talented players on the cusp on the majors and due for Rule 5 roster protection after the season.

[MadThinker88]

On 3/3/2023 at 1:08 PM, wallus said:

Cleveland spends even less than we do so no chance they are interested. 

The past few years when there was no minority ownership group in CLE, I would completely agree. Now that the Sherman shares have been bought by a new minority group (along with path to full ownership in 5 more years) and more money is flowing in, the payroll should continue to rise.  I don't foresee Cohen levels of spending, but I suspect CLE will get itself back to the middle tier of spending.

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, MadThinker88 said:

Cleveland is not making that deal for multiple reasons..

I also find it curious how you described the CLE pitching prospects (in bold above)...   Pitching, Middle INF and outrageous depth are the key traits of the CLE farm system that have a consensus ranking between #3 and #5 in baseball this year.  If the CLE pitching future is not bright, how dim is the pitching future for MKE in comparison???

Well pitching future as to depth this year and 2024.  Espino " over four Double-A starts before getting sidelined by knee tendinitis, then got shut down with shoulder soreness. After his shoulder continued to bother him this winter, he was diagnosed with a muscle strain and a capsule tear, so the Guardians sidelined him again and it's unclear when his 2023 season will begin" 

The #1 pitching prospect.

Gavin Williams #2 team prospect. has 3 starts at AA. That's a 2024 at best mid season addition.

#5 Bibee looks legit why I look for them back in a trade. Another AA 2024 addition.

#8 Logan Allen. Stats to project as 3-4SP not top of the rotation(similar to Lauer who's a 3-4)

#13 Justin Campbell. Picked in 2022 hasn't pitched yet 3+years away.

So the future has just that future away. There's no addition in 2023 they would have adding to playoff roster. Very unlikely a SP from this list beginning the 2024 season and as a Rookie in 2024 mid season do you have faith to pitch them in playoffs in 2024?

So reliable future begins on a 2025 season in my opinion.  The premise here is does Cleveland see the AL as weakened to make a push for a WS with the defending division winners addressing the matchups at the top of their rotations? 

My take on what a Burnes trade could look like is a scenario Cleveland wants to pursue a run at WS this season/next improving the team as soon as Burnes has become available to trade for.

Espino could be a headache with injuries just delaying his future multiple years. Allen the closest to Majors has the 3/4 stat profile. In between you're looking at a 2024 addition. The depth is very thin so to me its realistic they trade for an immediate upgrade.

Edit add seeing this comment.

Heck, Espino & Valera are hurt right now... If those 2 are healthy & performing, they might be filling roles in CLE by the trade deadline. Valera is already on the 40 man roster & Espino is Rule 5 eligible after this season.

 

With his injury the idea he'd get a role helping the team this season and staying protected on rule 5 is ending his SP future and he becomes a late inning RP for a long time to come.  It takes a multitude of seasons building up from a max of 91 IP in a professional season. Which looks unlikely he'll exceed with that injury news above. His future as a SP is 3+ years away to build up over 20Games started at 6IP.

 

[MadThinker88]

48 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Well pitching future as to depth this year and 2024.  Espino " over four Double-A starts before getting sidelined by knee tendinitis, then got shut down with shoulder soreness. After his shoulder continued to bother him this winter, he was diagnosed with a muscle strain and a capsule tear, so the Guardians sidelined him again and it's unclear when his 2023 season will begin" 

The #1 pitching prospect.

Gavin Williams #2 team prospect. has 3 starts at AA. That's a 2024 at best mid season addition.

#5 Bibee looks legit why I look for them back in a trade. Another AA 2024 addition.

#8 Logan Allen. Stats to project as 3-4SP not top of the rotation(similar to Lauer who's a 3-4)

#13 Justin Campbell. Picked in 2022 hasn't pitched yet 3+years away.

So the future has just that future away. There's no addition in 2023 they would have adding to playoff roster. Very unlikely a SP from this list beginning the 2024 season and as a Rookie in 2024 mid season do you have faith to pitch them in playoffs in 2024?

So reliable future begins on a 2025 season in my opinion.  The premise here is does Cleveland see the AL as weakened to make a push for a WS with the defending division winners addressing the matchups at the top of their rotations? 

My take on what a Burnes trade could look like is a scenario Cleveland wants to pursue a run at WS this season/next improving the team as soon as Burnes has become available to trade for.

Espino could be a headache with injuries just delaying his future multiple years. Allen the closest to Majors has the 3/4 stat profile. In between you're looking at a 2024 addition. The depth is very thin so to me its realistic they trade for an immediate upgrade.

Edit add seeing this comment.

Heck, Espino & Valera are hurt right now... If those 2 are healthy & performing, they might be filling roles in CLE by the trade deadline. Valera is already on the 40 man roster & Espino is Rule 5 eligible after this season.

 

With his injury the idea he'd get a role helping the team this season and staying protected on rule 5 is ending his SP future and he becomes a late inning RP for a long time to come.  It takes a multitude of seasons building up from a max of 91 IP in a professional season. Which looks unlikely he'll exceed with that injury news above. His future as a SP is 3+ years away to build up over 20Games started at 6IP.

 

I think you want to double check where guys pitched last year..

Gavin Williams (#2) had 16 starts in AA in 2022 so being in AAA midway thru 2023 is not out of the question.  Tanner Bibbe had 13 starts in AA in 2022 so he could also see AAA midway thru 2023...

As for a healthy use of Espino - depending on how things are going, bullpen arm is not out of the question... Either way he is R5 eligible this December...

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Edits:

Logan T Allen was working on a 4th pitch in AAA (IIRC a cutter) that was getting hammered & impacted his overall numbers.  He is R5 eligible after the season so I would not be surprised if he is used as rotation or bullpen depth during this coming season if he remains healthy.

No disagreement on Jason Campbell being years away.  He was just drafted in 2022 & hasn't pitched in organized professional ball yet.  IMHO his placement on top prospect listings is a mistake as he hasn't done anything yet.  It will be interesting to see where they have him begin the 2023 season (in High A or in Low A).

While not getting much notice at this time, a group of college pitchers from the 2021 Draft class are worth keeping an eye on: LHP Doug Nikhazy, LHP Will Dion (aka Little Kershaw), RHP Trenton Denholm & RHP Jack Leftwich. Member s of this group begin 2023 at AA or at High-A and that puts them in line  to help the MLB club in later 2024 or for 2025. They would be Rule 5 eligible after the 2024 season...

I am unsure which source you are using for the rankings, but I would encourage use of Fangraphs & their Roster Resource section...  A lot of good info in there

 

[KeithStone53151]

I think the return on Burnes would be surprisingly high. I can't think of any precedent of a cy young being traded with 1.5 years of team control, at least not recently. There is of course the Greinke trade, and in retrospect I'm not sure the Royals got enough in that trade. What I've noticed in recent years is teams will truly pay a premium for an elite talent. It is however similar with elite prospects, you don't really see those guys move unless it's for like Mookie Betts or Juan Soto. Burnes does fall in comparable territory for me. A big club could trade for him in order to quickly give him the big extension before he hits FA and keep him long term.

Last year, Luis Castillo was traded with 1.5 years of team control. He's a very solid starting pitcher, but inarguably not as valuable as Burnes would be at the deadline assuming he performs to his standards and doesn't get hurt. The Reds for Castillo got currently the number 29 prospect in baseball, the number 44 prospect in baseball, and 2 mildly interesting throw-in types. That is the absolute floor of what we could get for Burnes. I think we would get one absolute elite prospect added to what was received for Burnes. So a prospect in the 5-15 overall range, a couple more between the 30-75 range, and a couple interesting players...probably more interesting than what the Reds received as those guys I don't think have much hope. That can of course get shifted around, if for example the Orioles went on a run and were willing to trade Gunnar Henderson...we might not get much else. I've seen a couple people note Painter/Rodriguez as the headliner, that makes a lot of sense based on the rankings.

[wallus]

Came across this, just thought I would share it: https://www.baseballrumors.me/2023/03/mlb-rumors-padres-have-3-brewers.html?fbclid=IwAR3HIkzcZq3y7-8kU21W0vcoBPv_Pl3PBL9lsEGjg2rIOOP4RZt3ee7e7u8

[nate82]

43 minutes ago, wallus said:

Came across this, just thought I would share it: https://www.baseballrumors.me/2023/03/mlb-rumors-padres-have-3-brewers.html?fbclid=IwAR3HIkzcZq3y7-8kU21W0vcoBPv_Pl3PBL9lsEGjg2rIOOP4RZt3ee7e7u8

The Padres don't really have enough prospect capital for a Burnes trade to work even with Merrill.  For Woodruff a Merrill plus another prospect or two works but not for Burnes. 

[jay87shot]

Looking at other outlier teams, the Yankees have an interesting system and could work if they start with Volpe. The Phillies have some great pitching even with the Andrew Painter injury. The Twins could make sense with a deep farm and no obvious ace. The Angels could make some sense if it becomes clear they would lose Ohtani. The Red Sox could work if they play better than I think they will. The Ray's would fit into the Gaurdians category of they could but it wouldn't make sense because they wouldn't pay him. The Cards could work as well but I doubt anything in division that bug would go down. The D-backs could also possibly work at mid season if they are playing well and a couple of their younger prospects make a jump.

Obviously the Dodgers and O's would be the best trade partners today but around the trade deadline who knows.

I don't think I would package Burnes and Adames together. Separately they should get a Soto type package I doubt they get that together.

[patrickgpe]

saw the Rangers may be interested.

Josh Jung / Jack Leiter / Kumar Rocker 

[nate82]

Just now, patrickgpe said:

saw the Rangers may be interested.

Josh Jung / Jack Leiter / Kumar Rocker 

Is that an or because I don't think you can get all three and I wouldn't really be all that interested in Rocker.  I think Rocker will be a reliever and not a starter. 

[patrickgpe]

30 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Is that an or because I don't think you can get all three and I wouldn't really be all that interested in Rocker.  I think Rocker will be a reliever and not a starter. 

I think you should be able to get a top 50 and top 100 prospect for Burnes. I threw in Kumar. Even if they just got Jung and Leiter, Id be happy. Settles the 3rd base issue and gives them a starter. Maybe thats asking too much, idk.

[nate82]

9 minutes ago, patrickgpe said:

I think you should be able to get a top 50 and top 100 prospect for Burnes. I threw in Kumar. Even if they just got Jung and Leiter, Id be happy. Settles the 3rd base issue and gives them a starter. Maybe thats asking too much, idk.

If you use the baseball trade values site as a starting point this trade doesn't work for the Brewers though I think the BTV site is low on Leiter.  They have Leiter at 12.4 but I think his median value should be higher somewhere around the 20's I believe.  Now Jung it all depends on how you think his should has healed and if he will still be the same player before he tore is labrum.  It has been a year since the surgery so it maybe hard to tell yet so his value being about 30 sounds about right maybe you could go lower to 25.  With Leiter you have to believe his '22 stats in AA were a one time thing and he should improve from that.  He does have some command issues so maybe the 12.4 is more accurate though I think I would still put him closer to 15 as his median value. 

Currently Burnes has an excess value of 78.3.  Which even if you adjust Jung and Leiter together that only gets you to about half of Burnes value.  You have to fill in the rest of the value with other prospects.  I don't think the Rangers are a realistic team to trade Burnes to.  Woodruff is probably a more realistic option for the Rangers.  Something like Jung, Leiter, Figuereo and Teodo (RHP)  for Woodruff would be a better deal and within the values that each player projects.  That would be the Rangers 1, 5, 19 and 21st ranked prospects for Woodruff.  But that all depends on the valuation for Jung and Leiter.  I think Leiter is a little low and Jung may also be a bit low.  Still it is really hard to get to the valuation of Burnes without the Rangers putting in basically their top 5 prospects for Burnes and that still may not be enough value wise. 

[jay87shot]

In my opinion there are multiple ways to build a Burnes trade. 

1)prospects, Top 50 (preferably top 25), 2 high end prospects (at least borderline top 100 prospects), and a 4th piece (lotto type prospect/lower value mlb player aka reliever)

O's=Jackson Holiday, Jordan Westburg, DL Hall, Keegan Akin

2) Clevinger style, for like 6 interesting pieces but none are huge prospects or big time young mlb talent.

Yankees=Austin Wells, Spencer Jones, Trey Sweeney, Clarke Schmidt, Estevian Florial, Carson Coleman

3) mlb talent, trade him for an established mlb player who won't cost as much and more maybe 3 teams.

We get Bryan Reynolds and Brett Baty Mets= Burnes Pirates=Kevin Parada, Weimer/Mitchell, David Peterson

4)Combine with Willy for a Soto style haul

Dodgers= Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot, and Michael Busch

Probably more as well

[MadThinker88]

Interesting that you note the "Clevinger style" trade since MKE now has 1 of those 6 players from the deal (Owen Miller).

That deal between CLE & SD had 9 players in total being moved: CLE sent 3 (2 MLB players in Clevinger & Greg Allen) & a PTBNL (milb pitcher Matt Waldon) to SD for 6 players back (3 MLB players in Josh Naylor, Cal Quantril & Austin Hedges) & 3 prospects (SS Gabriel Arias, LHP Joey Cantillo & INF Owen Miller).

[Jake McKibbin]

Given the likes of Cleveland are never going to trade for Burnes as it's not their nature, I did see an interesting one with the Dodgers today on Baseball trade values

 

Corbin Burnes for Dustin May, Bobby Miller as the center peices, with Graterol and Caleb Ferguson also in there. What would you guys think of May and Miller as two potentials?