What would a Corbin Burnes Trade Look Like?

[wiguy94]

10 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Given the likes of Cleveland are never going to trade for Burnes as it's not their nature, I did see an interesting one with the Dodgers today on Baseball trade values

 

Corbin Burnes for Dustin May, Bobby Miller as the center peices, with Graterol and Caleb Ferguson also in there. What would you guys think of May and Miller as two potentials? 

I think the Brewers would do that trade in a heart beat. 1.5 year of Corbin Burnes for 2.5 of May, 6+ of Miller, 1.5 of Ferguson, and 3.5 of Graterol. I don't think the Dodgers would do this trade. Just giving up way too many pitchers imo. 

Our bullpen would be absolutely stacked if we made this trade though. 

9th - DW

8th - Graterol

7th - Strzelecki/Ferguson

Middle Relief - Milner/Payamps/Cousins

Long Relief - Wilson

That bullpen is 4 deep in very trustable high leverage arms and 8 deep in terms of quality arms.

 

[Jake McKibbin]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I think the Brewers would do that trade in a heart beat. 1.5 year of Corbin Burnes for 2.5 of May, 6+ of Miller, 1.5 of Ferguson, and 3.5 of Graterol. I don't think the Dodgers would do this trade. Just giving up way too many pitchers imo. 

Our bullpen would be absolutely stacked if we made this trade though. 

9th - DW

8th - Graterol

7th - Strzelecki/Ferguson

Middle Relief - Milner/Payamps/Cousins

Long Relief - Wilson

That bullpen is 4 deep in very trustable high leverage arms and 8 deep in terms of quality arms.

 

Absolutely though I think law mentioned something about miller having question marks despite the below

I'd actually take may and miller on their own perhaps 

[wiguy94]

19 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Absolutely though I think law mentioned something about miller having question marks despite the below

I'd actually take may and miller on their own perhaps 

Yeah I think a more realistic package would be 2 of May, Miller, Pepiot, Stone and then like a lower level hitter.

[nate82]

I think a more realistic trade is still with the Orioles.  I am not sold on the Dodgers making a trade for Burnes and if the Dodgers are in it I think they prioritize Ohtani over Burnes and I think the player the Dodgers would prefer from the Brewers would be Adames.  If you are including Adames and Burnes in a trade then expect to get less than what you would get if only one of the players were involved.  You won't get full value for Burnes or Adames if you include them together. 

I think an Orioles trade starts with Holliday and then it starts to get a little muddy after that.  Probably someone like Mayo and Povich to finish off the trade.

[wiguy94]

9 hours ago, nate82 said:

I think a more realistic trade is still with the Orioles.  I am not sold on the Dodgers making a trade for Burnes and if the Dodgers are in it I think they prioritize Ohtani over Burnes and I think the player the Dodgers would prefer from the Brewers would be Adames.  If you are including Adames and Burnes in a trade then expect to get less than what you would get if only one of the players were involved.  You won't get full value for Burnes or Adames if you include them together. 

I think an Orioles trade starts with Holliday and then it starts to get a little muddy after that.  Probably someone like Mayo and Povich to finish off the trade.

There's zero chance the Orioles are trading Jackson Holliday for 1.5 years of Corbin Burnes (especially with him looking the way he has over his last 120+ innings)

[sveumrules]

8 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

There's zero chance the Orioles are trading Jackson Holliday for 1.5 years of Corbin Burnes (especially with him looking the way he has over his last 120+ innings)

Ding Ding.

Since the All Star Break of last year there are 101 pitchers with at least 80 IP. Here's where Burnes ranks in various categories over that stretch...

128 IP (7th) 25.3 K% (31st) 7.0 BB% (62nd) 1.05 HR9 (51st) 3.94 ERA (56th) 3.72 FIP (42nd)

No one is giving up any kind of major haul for Burnes if he continues pitching like that from now through the deadline. 

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Ding Ding.

Since the All Star Break of last year there are 101 pitchers with at least 80 IP. Here's where Burnes ranks in various categories over that stretch...

128 IP (7th) 25.3 K% (31st) 7.0 BB% (62nd) 1.05 HR9 (51st) 3.94 ERA (56th) 3.72 FIP (42nd)

No one is giving up any kind of major haul for Burnes if he continues pitching like that from now through the deadline. 

And even if he does regain his early 2022 form (don’t think he ever touches 2021 form again) I still don’t think we could get a Holliday, Mayo, Povich package from the Orioles. 
 

I don’t think Brewers fans would want to give up Chourio, Black, and Gasser for 1.5 years of a Corbin Burnes level pitcher. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think far too many people (Burnes included) assume that the ~1.75 season stretch from 2020 through early 2022 are how we can expect Burnes to consistently perform for the next 5+ seasons.  That level of performance is basically one of the top 2 or 3 starters in the game.

It's much more likely that Burnes is of the type of pitcher we've seen since mid-2022 moving forward - particularly with the pitch clock change...that profiles him to be a solid starter, but not one destined for the HOF.

I think the NL Central is bad enough where the Brewers should be happy rolling with Burnes the next 1.75 seasons they still control him for, and then wish him well in free agency.  He won't be setting any free agent contract precedents for a starting pitcher, but he'll still be too pricey for the Brewers to retain.  Be happy with getting his best years of production and move on.

[jay87shot]

On 5/2/2023 at 6:35 AM, Jake McKibbin said:

Given the likes of Cleveland are never going to trade for Burnes as it's not their nature, I did see an interesting one with the Dodgers today on Baseball trade values

 

Corbin Burnes for Dustin May, Bobby Miller as the center peices, with Graterol and Caleb Ferguson also in there. What would you guys think of May and Miller as two potentials? 

I think with Burnes not pitching up to standards a trade would likely not have any top 25 or so prospects but might have more solid players or an extra lotto ticket type piece. I would love May and Miller as a center but the problem is that May has been better than Burnes so the Dodgers aren't going to give up multiple years of cheaper contol and 2 or 3 nice pieces. I have been trying to piece a 3 team trade where Burnes goes to Baltimore, Baltimore sends out a bullpen piece Cowser/Kjerstad and more, and we get a quality bat and pitching help, but nothing quite works.

Something like

O's get Burnes

Reds get DL Hall, Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers, Kyle Bradish, and Elvis Peguaro

We get Noelvi Marte, Alexis Diaz

O's don't give up any of there top couple prospects, the Reds swap SS depth for OF depth and sell high of Diaz. Brewers get a future IF mate to pair with Turang and a high end reliever. The problem is that The Reds probably don't trade Diaz, even though a closer isn't all that valuable on a team that is 2 or 3 years away, essentially the Reds swap Cowser for Marte (maybe a little extra Cowser value because of how good he has been) then Hall, Beavers, Bradish, and Peguaro for Diaz (I am sure you could swap Bradish and Peguaro for prospect like Cade Povich and Cam Robinson). 

[rickh150]

Not going anywhere this deadline…”they’re not selling”

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/milwaukee-brewers-theyre-not-selling-031852711.html

[nate82]

5 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Not going anywhere this deadline…”they’re not selling”

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/milwaukee-brewers-theyre-not-selling-031852711.html

Did a 5-year old write that article?  That was just an absolute mess of an article.

[Jake McKibbin]

5 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Not going anywhere this deadline…”they’re not selling”

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/milwaukee-brewers-theyre-not-selling-031852711.html

I liked it, if it's direct rom Burnes it's intriguing to hear his opinions for sure on the reds, Steele on the Cubs and also the discussions with Arnold

[SF70]

2 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I liked it, if it's direct rom Burnes it's intriguing to hear his opinions for sure on the reds, Steele on the Cubs and also the discussions with Arnold

Well I guess that takes care of selling Burnes to the highest bidder at the trade-deadline. 

The team will need to make room for Gasser at some point in the second-half, and I’m hoping it’s the rotation and not the bullpen, and will need to make room for Woodruff as well, so I’m hoping a trade of Houser is on the horizon.

 

[Jake McKibbin]

4 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Well I guess that takes care of selling Burnes to the highest bidder at the trade-deadline. 

The team will need to make room for Gasser at some point in the second-half, and I’m hoping it’s the rotation and not the bullpen, and will need to make room for Woodruff as well, so I’m hoping a trade of Houser is on the horizon.

 

I think Gasser will come into the equation if

 

a) Teheran/Rea really start to regress, badly

b) injury related reasons

 

Other than that, with Woodruff coming back, they'll be probably hoping his performances are setting him up to start next year after trading Burnes likely in the off season

Showing concerted dominant form is good whatever happens

Could also see him coming up if Bryce Wilson goes down for a longer reliever, I've an article coming this week about brewers bullpen that could be pure fire second half of the season without even considering him

[endaround]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

Well I guess that takes care of selling Burnes to the highest bidder at the trade-deadline. 

The team will need to make room for Gasser at some point in the second-half, and I’m hoping it’s the rotation and not the bullpen, and will need to make room for Woodruff as well, so I’m hoping a trade of Houser is on the horizon.

 

Why? Gasser is a 24 year old with a near 4 ERA in AAA.  That points to backend rotation piece at best. It looks like he has trouble making even twice through an AAA order at this point.  I mean he's fine for what he is but he shouldn't really influence any decision making.

[Jake McKibbin]

2 minutes ago, endaround said:

Why? Gasser is a 24 year old with a near 4 ERA in AAA.  That points to backend rotation piece at best. It looks like he has trouble making even twice through an AAA order at this point.  I mean he's fine for what he is but he shouldn't really influence any decision making.

He struggled early but has been really really good since June, turning his command around big time

[bensheeps]

9 hours ago, nate82 said:

Did a 5-year old write that article?  That was just an absolute mess of an article.

Surprised that I hadn't heard Stearns has already left for the Mets.

 

"But if the Reds think they might get the same break from an unforced front office from Stearns this time around, they should think again. For two reasons.  First, Stearns is now in New York, delivering his hits and errors for/against the Mets."

[CheezWizHed]

Given the backlash of the Hader trade and Burnes' mediocre results, the best course of action would be to hold onto Burnes and hope he rebounds a bit before trading him in the offseason.  Or if he continues as is... next trade deadline.

[SF70]

7 hours ago, endaround said:

Why? Gasser is a 24 year old with a near 4 ERA in AAA.  That points to backend rotation piece at best. It looks like he has trouble making even twice through an AAA order at this point.  I mean he's fine for what he is but he shouldn't really influence any decision making.

Gasser has been dominant in his last 6 starts. 

38 innings (6+ innings average)

With only 5BB & 44K

He’s 24 as you say, and ready to help the big-club.

[TURBO]

May sure is hurt a lot though.  If he would be the center piece of a trade with the Dodgers, that trade could go south quickly if he continues on his injury trend.

[Scooterfletcher]

I’ll take mayo Johnson cowser  and hall for burnes and call it a day