Brewers (Miley) vs Diamondbacks (Gallen): 4/10/23, 8:40pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

No way I'm catching this game tonight with it's nearly-8pm start. This series might have larger repercussions on the season than you'd expect at a glance. I think the Diamondbacks have a chance to be sneaky-good and be in the mix for a Wild Card berth, which may put them in direct conflict with the Brewers through the second half of the season.

So let's just win the division instead. Take two of three and move on to the Padres!

[Underachiever]

Going by ERA of the starters, I predict 10-0 Brewers, minimum. 

I love these late starts. My wife goes to bed by 9, and I can just veg out, uninterrupted. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Diamondbacks took three of four from the Dodgers over the weekend.

[SF70]

The Dbacks have the fastest team in baseball and like the Cardinals, are a year ahead of us with position prospect development. Still a little short in the pitching department outside of their big 2, so not quite strong enough yet to hang with SD/LAD but could contend for a WC if some of their young pitching develops a little faster than anticipated.

These 2 teams should be among the best in baseball in a few years just on extreme positional talent alone.

[treego14]

With Wade, will we Arizona invade!

Miley shall once again make us smiley!

Gallen will be a warrior fallen!

CC for Manager of the Year in '23!

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Going by ERA of the starters, I predict 10-0 Brewers, minimum. 

I love these late starts. My wife goes to bed by 9, and I can just veg out, uninterrupted. 

I used to love late starts but now I have a small child that wakes up before 6am every morning.

[willie key]

So this chourio kid is the #1 prospect in all of baseball.      Have we ever had that before?

 

[MrTPlush]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I used to love late starts but now I have a small child that wakes up before 6am every morning.

Back before I started going to bed at old people times, I loved the IGTs on those late night games. It was pretty laid back and usually was a pretty casual conversation. The 'sky is falling' or negative posters usually didn't stay up late enough to go on their daily tangents mid-game. 

Though I always hate committing to saying up for a late game only to watch the Brewers blow it in some embarrassing fashion. Then not only did I waste 3 hours of my life to be mad in the end, but also wasted hours of sleep at the same time. 

[MrTPlush]

2 minutes ago, willie key said:

So this chourio kid is the #1 prospect in all of baseball.      Have we ever had that before?

 

Negative. Sheets/Weeks were both #5. I think some have said maybe someone was #3...but certainly no one has been #1.

[Underachiever]

15 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I used to love late starts but now I have a small child that wakes up before 6am every morning.

Have your kids 30 years ago like I did. Problem solved.

[KeithStone53151]

Gallen's velocity has been down 1-2 mph on all his pitches compared to 2022 numbers. Going from 94/95 to 92/94 is a pretty significant change. Also hit cutter/curveball have much less movement so far compared to 2022. Less velocity and less movement is not a recipe for success at this level.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

Negative. Sheets/Weeks were both #5. I think some have said maybe someone was #3...but certainly no one has been #1.

I didn't think Fielder was #1 but I checked and he never even cracked the top ten (topped out at 11). I was almost positive he was a top ten guy at one point.

[wiguy94]

This will be a tough game. Gallen is easily the best pitcher on the DBacks and he has had success against us in the past. Through 10.2 innings, his pitch model numbers look good 110 stuff+, 106 location+, 107 pitching+.  Win this one and our odds at taking the series will be very favorable.

[Jake McKibbin]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

This will be a tough game. Gallen is easily the best pitcher on the DBacks and he has had success against us in the past. Through 10.2 innings, his pitch model numbers look good 110 stuff+, 106 location+, 107 pitching+.  Win this one and our odds at taking the series will be very favorable.

I think it'll be interesting, Gallen hasn't hit his stride as of yet, and the Arizona offense has overperformed so far (Perdomo has an xBA of .200 vs actual BA of .438, and xSlg of .303 vs actual slugging of .813

Can the Brewers limit damage on the base paths? Will need some offense for sure, but also some clutch fielding and a bit of good luck. Miley was very good his first start, and should be an exciting game, so many young talents on show

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I think it'll be interesting, Gallen hasn't hit his stride as of yet, and the Arizona offense has overperformed so far (Perdomo has an xBA of .200 vs actual BA of .438, and xSlg of .303 vs actual slugging of .813

Can the Brewers limit damage on the base paths? Will need some offense for sure, but also some clutch fielding and a bit of good luck. Miley was very good his first start, and should be an exciting game, so many young talents on show

I think Gallen has been a bit unlucky. He has a .311 xwOBA this year compared to a .370 wOBA. His xERA of 4.0 isn't great but much better than his actual 7.59 ERA. Plus the pitch modeling numbers still like him this year. 

[Jake McKibbin]

One thing the Brewers have struggled with a ton the last few seasons is regularly having men on base, but this season we've had multiple threats across a variety of innings, and it's been so refreshing. Be interesting to see when that helps get a starter out early, tonight would be great for it. Yelich and Winker really work a count, and it's whether we can get that big early inning and rack up a big pitch count.

Bit rambly, but I've no doubt there'll be opportunities tonight, question is if the extra hit or two can make a big dent

[MrTPlush]

Joey Weimer has played in 8 games and is still rocking a perfect 8 game on base streak. He actually had a perfect hitting streak until yesterday. He still managed a walk and a run scored though. 

[wibadgers23]

Much like the Brewers, the Dbacks have a young and exciting core of position players.  I really, really like their outfielders.  They are close to contending at this point.  This is going to be a tough series.

[igor67]

West coast trips are always tough, I hope Yelich keeps a bit of that willingness to ambush first pitches every so often and making good contact. That should get him back to the near 20HRs and 30+ doubles he had before his MVP seasons. And at the top of the order that works pretty well.

[KeithStone53151]

19 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Much like the Brewers, the Dbacks have a young and exciting core of position players.  I really, really like their outfielders.  They are close to contending at this point.  This is going to be a tough series.

Their outfielders may in fact have more speed than ours, which is pretty wild with Mitchell being an 80 grade and Wiemer being probably a 60 grade...and Yelich despite his flaws in the field is at least average speed.

[Jake McKibbin]

2 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Their outfielders may in fact have more speed than ours, which is pretty wild with Mitchell being an 80 grade and Wiemer being probably a 60 grade...and Yelich despite his flaws in the field is at least average speed.

Wiemer is rapid! Mitchel has hit too many extra bases so far to really show off his wheels. If only he'd stop roping doubles and homers, but yeah that's wild!

Also because stats are so relevant... Yelich is currently 1 OAA for the season. Premium defense on offer

[Pugger]

One thing that isn't fun is the game doesn't start until 9:40 pm for me.  🙁

[CheezWizHed]

6 hours ago, Underachiever said:

Going by ERA of the starters, I predict 10-0 Brewers, minimum. 

I love these late starts. My wife goes to bed by 9, and I can just veg out, uninterrupted. 

By ERA of the starters, I'll predict 7.59 - 0! 😉

[Ulice Payne]

Still like these late west coast games.  I probably won't make it to the end, but it's nice knowing that I can finish everything I want to do in the evening and still have baseball

 

[TURBO]

Gallen is far better than he has fared so far this year.  I think some are not giving this kid enough credit.