Hiura is hitting lefties in AAA Nashville

[Austin Tatious]

Winker and Voit sure look like they’re trending toward the Nippon League portions of their careers next year.  Hope that’s not the case and there’s time to fix it.  

[BlightyBrew]

Hiura also with an outfield assist last night playing out in LF.

[Jopal78]

12 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think this is more of an indictment of cheap MLB teams than Keston Hiura.

Sure, I get why a bunch of good teams didn't have space for a reverse-split, no-position player.

But there was absolutely no excuse for teams like the A's, Reds, et al not to take a $2m flyer on Hiura in hopes of flipping him in July... except they value $2m more than actually improving their baseball team.

Perhaps, but it is telling that a former Top 10 draft pick, who has slugged 50 homers in 284 major league games, and has years of team control remaining was not worth a 2 million dollar flyer even from the thriftiest of clubs. 
 

Maybe the scouting departments across MLB simply reached the conclusion that he won’t make enough contact against major league pitching to be a viable option.

All we know for sure, is the Brewers have him 700+ PAs to try to recapture the magic of 2019 and he couldn’t do it.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Perhaps, but it is telling that a former Top 10 draft pick, who has slugged 50 homers in 284 major league games, and has years of team control remaining was not worth a 2 million dollar flyer even from the thriftiest of clubs. 

Maybe the scouting departments across MLB simply reached the conclusion that he won’t make enough contact against major league pitching to be a viable option.

All we know for sure, is the Brewers have him 700+ PAs to try to recapture the magic of 2019 and he couldn’t do it.

For sure, he's obviously a flawed player and $2m is a risk.

But it's the kind of risk bad teams should jump at the chance to take. Say Hiura posts an .800 OPS in the first half, just as he did last year with the Brewers. Maybe he's even a little bit better.

That's an easy way to get a C level prospect for $1.5m. Baseball really needs to do something about these tanking teams that hoard cash above all else, even their own on-field improvement over the long term.

[brewcrewdue80]

Team needs to make a move and Hiura should be it.

Winker's career HR pct up to this season I about 3.86pct at 90PA with 0 he's 3.48 HRs behind his average.

Voit's career is 5.17pct HR.  68 PAs he is also 3.51 HRs behind his average.

Add it up 7 HRs between the two. Whatever Analytics the Brewers are using to teach a style approach to their new hitters isn't working. Or flat out these two have just reached finished baseball careers. No reason to keep Voit on the team with 0HRs to his name and 3 total hits vs LH pitching. These 2 are clogs when they get on the basepaths. So do it and bring back Hiura who can provide some HRs this offense needs. Because mentally I'm losing interest with this team and Counsell lineups playing the platoon strategy with Voit at his disposal. I sure am glad Contreras broke through whatever this jinx is with new hitters brought to the team only to underperform in the HR department.

[KeithStone53151]

4 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Perhaps, but it is telling that a former Top 10 draft pick, who has slugged 50 homers in 284 major league games, and has years of team control remaining was not worth a 2 million dollar flyer even from the thriftiest of clubs. 
 

Maybe the scouting departments across MLB simply reached the conclusion that he won’t make enough contact against major league pitching to be a viable option.

All we know for sure, is the Brewers have him 700+ PAs to try to recapture the magic of 2019 and he couldn’t do it.

 

I believe I saw something early in the preseason that Hiura made significant mechanical adjustments. Who knows how true that is. But there are a couple noteworthy differences between this Hiura and previous Hiura. He's 26 now and I'll stray off into 2 points on that. First, 27 is a very typical age where hitters will peak. Lots of career seasons at 27. And approaching that threshold might make a difference. Two, other players I'm familiar with that had elite bat speed but struggled early on include Carlos Gomez, Rickie Weeks, Javy Baez...all 3 of these guys really turned a corner at that 26/27 and put together a few really good offensive years. None of these guys are apples to apples, most notably Gomez/Baez are all-world defenders at their position...which with that you can kinda deal with mediocre offense in the case of baez and bad offense in the case of gomez. All that said, there are certainly enough positive factors that having hope in Hiura is a reasonable take. It's also not a difficult argument to make that Hiura might be worth taking a chance on his AAA production being real improvements given the production of Winker/Voit to date. You really can't get 600ish OPS from platooning DH's, just not good enough.

[Fear The Chorizo]

31 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Perhaps, but it is telling that a former Top 10 draft pick, who has slugged 50 homers in 284 major league games, and has years of team control remaining was not worth a 2 million dollar flyer even from the thriftiest of clubs. 
 

Maybe the scouting departments across MLB simply reached the conclusion that he won’t make enough contact against major league pitching to be a viable option.

All we know for sure, is the Brewers have him 700+ PAs to try to recapture the magic of 2019 and he couldn’t do it.

 

Those 700+ PAs were scattered over broken up portions of 3 MLB seasons - not consistent enough for that to be a sample size worth making a definitive determination on what he can produce if given a full-time DH spot in the lineup.

Hiura did himself no favors earning more at bats with his exploding K rate during that timeframe - but even with that production Hiura still OPS'd in the mid to high 0.700s last season.  What he's doing now in AAA warrants serious consideration of giving him an extended shot in the MLB lineup once the Brewers acknowledge some of the veteran pickups made this offseason aren't contributing.

More often than not teams aren't going to take flyers on players from other organizations at the end of spring training - they've all got their own guys who they're trying to eek through waivers (similar to NFL teams trying to slip "their guys" onto their practice squads). Poorly performing teams that have room on their 40 man roster for a guy like Hiura would be interested in the midst of the season after they've officially waived the white flag on the season

I've consistently thought the biggest flaw in the Brewers' roster construction the past few seasons has been using the DH as a platoon-heavy role and seemingly using multiple roster spots on guys who are marginal corner IF/OF starters - I think they would be much better off giving the DH role to 1 player and then adding more players with positional versatility that play solid defense and try exploiting platoon advantages that way.  Hiura would've been an ideal fit to be the fulltime DH last season to see what he could produce - instead the Brewers threw ~$15M at an aging McCutcheon and then didn't let Hiura hit against RHP much at all before shuttling him down to AAA early last season.

[DHonks]

15 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'm interested in giving the guy one more chance. His quality of contact has always been elite and the slightest bit of improvement in contact % would make him worth rostering. But if he falters again with a 40% K rate, then, yeah he won't be missed much. 

It’s always worth giving guys a 2nd or 3rd chance.  Jose Bautista, Carlos Delgado, Jose Guillen, Lyle Overbay, Brian Anderson, and countless others have had success after early struggles.  Right now it’s maybe a small sample size, but in a few weeks it could be a legit trend worth noting.  He’s likely making adjustments.  

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Those 700+ PAs were scattered over broken up portions of 3 MLB seasons - not consistent enough for that to be a sample size worth making a definitive determination on what he can produce if given a full-time DH spot in the lineup.

Hiura did himself no favors earning more at bats with his exploding K rate during that timeframe - but even with that production Hiura still OPS'd in the mid to high 0.700s last season.  What he's doing now in AAA warrants serious consideration of giving him an extended shot in the MLB lineup once the Brewers acknowledge some of the veteran pickups made this offseason aren't contributing.

More often than not teams aren't going to take flyers on players from other organizations at the end of spring training - they've all got their own guys who they're trying to eek through waivers (similar to NFL teams trying to slip "their guys" onto their practice squads). Poorly performing teams that have room on their 40 man roster for a guy like Hiura would be interested in the midst of the season after they've officially waived the white flag on the season

I've consistently thought the biggest flaw in the Brewers' roster construction the past few seasons has been using the DH as a platoon-heavy role and seemingly using multiple roster spots on guys who are marginal corner IF/OF starters - I think they would be much better off giving the DH role to 1 player and then adding more players with positional versatility that play solid defense and try exploiting platoon advantages that way.  Hiura would've been an ideal fit to be the fulltime DH last season to see what he could produce - instead the Brewers threw ~$15M at an aging McCutcheon and then didn't let Hiura hit against RHP much at all before shuttling him down to AAA early last season.

But MLB teams see these guys every day and know each players skill set/flaws in a great deal more detail than just a stat sheet. So it’s really sort of dilutes the significance if those 700 PAs came in one consecutive chunk or if they occurred in smaller chunks. He’s still interacting with coaches, creating videotape daily. 
 

It’s the same thing with getting hot and bothered they didn’t play him at DH last year despite the surface of the stat sheet saying they should. I don’t think any of the  career baseball folks working for the Brewers are ignorant or have a beef with Hiura, there is a reason his career track has taken the course it has. 
 

Further, given their history with guys who they decided to move on from like Suter, Topa etc; if there was any real interest across the league in Hiura they Brewers would most likely try to facilitate a way to get him back to the majors with another club. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

3 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

But MLB teams see these guys every day and know each players skill set/flaws in a great deal more detail than just a stat sheet. So it’s really sort of dilutes the significance if those 700 PAs came in one consecutive chunk or if they occurred in smaller chunks. He’s still interacting with coaches, creating videotape daily. 
 

It’s the same thing with getting hot and bothered they didn’t play him at DH last year despite the surface of the stat sheet saying they should. I don’t think any of the  career baseball folks working for the Brewers are ignorant or have a beef with Hiura, there is a reason his career track has taken the course it has. 
 

Further, given their history with guys who they decided to move on from like Suter, Topa etc; if there was any real interest across the league in Hiura they Brewers would most likely try to facilitate a way to get him back to the majors with another club. 

Agree to disagree - when it comes to MLB teams taking fliers on players to try and catch lightning in a bottle, veteran scrap heap pitchers are a different animal than pre-free agent hitters, particularly ones who aren't good anywhere defensively.  Those 3 years were the shortened COVID season many hitters struggled through (no spring training, no video room, reduced time for pregame/between game work in the cage, etc), 2021 - when Hiura's mother was going through significant health issues, and 2022 when Hiura made the Opening Day roster but was pigeon-holed into a parttime role that wasn't reverse-split friendly.

This whole topic would be an afterthought if not for a series of injuries and poor performance by Brewers' DHs to date this season that have once again left a gaping hole in the lineup - I really don't care what the track record from prior years says, at this point Hiura should be the next option tried at DH in Milwaukee if Winker and/or Voit continue to post a sub-0.700 OPS collectively from what should be an offensive-focused place in the batting order.

[Team Canada]

14 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I believe I saw something early in the preseason that Hiura made significant mechanical adjustments. Who knows how true that is. 

Looking at the highlight in today's minor league game thread, his setup looks pretty different to me. There's very little leg kick anymore,

The fact that he has altered his swing is the only thing giving me hope that maybe something really is different this time, but until he does it against MLB pitching a health degree of skepticism is warranted.

[Frisbee Slider]

Would anyone in Milwaukee’s starting lineup have a near 1.100 OPS in Nashville if they were there now?

[igor67]

I'd guess Weimer, Tellez, and Adames would all have a decent chance to break 1.000

[KeithStone53151]

2 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Would anyone in Milwaukee’s starting lineup have a near 1.100 OPS in Nashville if they were there now?

I think you'd be surprised how many people on the mlb roster would obliterate AAA pitching. Probably a good chunk of the active roster including guys like Voit and Winker who are bad right now.

[Jake McKibbin]

11 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I think you'd be surprised how many people on the mlb roster would obliterate AAA pitching. Probably a good chunk of the active roster including guys like Voit and Winker who are bad right now.

Christopher Morel just posted 1.100 OPS while striking out over 30% of the time

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's tough to nitpick Hiura's current AAA statline considering his BA is 0.325, but I'd like to see more doubles out of him even if it sacrifices some of his HR power.  The fact he's got more than twice as many homers as doubles early this year tells me Hiura still may have too much of an all or nothing approach at the plate with a swing launch angle that could be exploited once again by MLB pitching with high velo up in the zone.  Whether the swing adjustments Hiura has made have enabled a great slider speed bat to turn into a swing that isn't overmatched by heat upstairs is the question that won't get answered until we see MLB at bats from Keston again.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Would anyone in Milwaukee’s starting lineup have a near 1.100 OPS in Nashville if they were there now?

More than you expect, I think. 

[Jopal78]

54 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I think you'd be surprised how many people on the mlb roster would obliterate AAA pitching. Probably a good chunk of the active roster including guys like Voit and Winker who are bad right now.

Exactly, pitchers who project to be able to be better than average at getting outs in the majors, don’t usually pitch much at AAA anymore. It’s usually the Colin Rea and Jason Alexander type pitchers in AAA. I’m sure even Yelich would destroy there.  

[Frisbee Slider]

I think we face the equivalent of three AAAA pitchers this weekend against the Royals. Hopefully, we have a lot of good performances.
 

I understand Greinke and Lyles have been good starters but not this year.

[jerichoholicninja]

Would be nice if this organization could start finding and/or developing hitters the way they do pitchers. They lucked into a couple great seasons from Yelich and one good year from Grandal fell into their lap but outside of that the offense has been flat out embarrassing for a team that's a perennial playoff contender. Doug Melvin is still on the payroll. Maybe make him the Director of Offense or something like that. He could always find random guys to come in and rake.

[Brock Beauchamp]

28 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

Would be nice if this organization could start finding and/or developing hitters the way they do pitchers. They lucked into a couple great seasons from Yelich and one good year from Grandal fell into their lap but outside of that the offense has been flat out embarrassing for a team that's a perennial playoff contender. Doug Melvin is still on the payroll. Maybe make him the Director of Offense or something like that. He could always find random guys to come in and rake.

Ultimately, I have a (sinking) feeling the Brewers revert to their natural organizational state by 2025: good hitting but lackluster pitching. I think their hitting prospects are well on their way to establishing themselves in the coming 12 months while I don't feel the same way about their pitching at all.

[Brewcrew82]

29 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Ultimately, I have a (sinking) feeling the Brewers revert to their natural organizational state by 2025: good hitting but lackluster pitching. I think their hitting prospects are well on their way to establishing themselves in the coming 12 months while I don't feel the same way about their pitching at all.

Jacob Misiorowski, you're our only hope...

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Jacob Misiorowski, you're our only hope...

And Ashby. The Brewers really need to hit on both to have a viable rotation in 2025. 

[yfinn6]

What about Gasser?  

[Fear The Chorizo]

18 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

And Ashby. The Brewers really need to hit on both to have a viable rotation in 2025. 

Don't sleep on Small, Gasser, Rodriuguez and other younger arms with mlb-caliber talent either.  It wasn't too long ago when Burnes by the numbers was the worst starter in baseball.  Arms develop at different times.

Pitching will be fine because this organization has figured out how to find pitching talent from everywhere but chasing it in free agency.  That's a far cry from several decades when the Brewers couldn't develop any quality pitching from within and relied on homegrown hitters who couldn't play defense to outscore teams while their slew of veteran free agent #5 starters got consistently rocked