Revisiting the Hader Trade

[TURBO]

4 hours ago, Weirdos19 said:

The fact that they turned approx 20 Hader appearances into Contreras, Payamps, and Gasser is incredible. I wouldn’t trade any of the three for Hader right now. 

Wait, you wouldn't trade Payamps straight up for Hader right now, today?

Dude...

[homer]

15 hours ago, TURBO said:

Wait, you wouldn't trade Payamps straight up for Hader right now, today?

Dude...

I think salary plays a role.

[Outlander]

Well yeah, if the Brewers wanted to give Hader $100 million guaranteed they could have had him back plus Payamps. Can't really pull off any trades without taking money into consideration.

[TURBO]

49 minutes ago, homer said:

I think salary plays a role.

It should play a role, but that isn't what he meant.  imo

[rickh150]

Hader had another year of control and the Brewers coulda woulda got similar deal for him after 2022. Less likely, yep, but still similar.

The Hader trade sucked the life out of that clubhouse, along with not picking up a bat and cutting Lamet to keep a fringe pitcher around. Deadline deals are supposed to pick up a team like the Canha and Santana deal.  The Hader trade aftermath is also a big reason why Burnes was dealt this offseason instead of the middle of last or this season. And I will be shocked if Adames is dealt too with his contract up, mainly because of the Hader trade. 

[Matt]

I don't believe for a second the Hader trade had any kind of impact on the clubhouse. The idea that 25 professionals would go into a collective sad spell over a business decision by management, one that was perfectly reasonable if not predictable, is crazy.

[edfunderburk]

It was a great trade then & a better trade today 

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, Matt said:

I don't believe for a second the Hader trade had any kind of impact on the clubhouse. The idea that 25 professionals would go into a collective sad spell over a business decision by management, one that was perfectly reasonable if not predictable, is crazy.

No impact on clubhouse? Just listening to players reactions show they were not happy with the move and were not felt as being supported. Even DS admitted it had huge impact…you know more on this topic than the GM?  https://apnews.com/article/mlb-sports-milwaukee-san-diego-padres-brewers-0bc4a05b897f71e8cb7be04768a2c37e
 

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, edfunderburk said:

It was a great trade then & a better trade today 

Awful trade then that got bailed out by a crazy good Contreras deal later.

[Fear The Chorizo]

17 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

No impact on clubhouse? Just listening to players reactions show they were not happy with the move and were not felt as being supported. Even DS admitted it had huge impact…you know more on this topic than the GM?  https://apnews.com/article/mlb-sports-milwaukee-san-diego-padres-brewers-0bc4a05b897f71e8cb7be04768a2c37e
 

I think that's more of a convenient excuse than the primary cause for that team not making the playoffs - Yelich had a bad year, the team in general couldn't hit, Peralta missed alot of time in the rotation due to injury, and at the time the trade happened,  Hader was pitching terribly.  All that being said, that team still wound up 10 games over 0.500.  Hader was possibly the biggest reason the team was dropping in the standings after getting off to a 32-19 start to the year.  Once the calendar hit June, the team basically muddled around 0.500 in large part to the inconsistent offense and leaky back end of the bullpen that got overworked due to starters wearing down/getting injured.  Hader was on the roster when they went 3 games under 0.500 in June and hovered through mediocrity through most of July while he was sporting a 1.200+ OPS against and blowing saves.  Hader's August in San Diego was equally as bad - had he remained a Brewer with that production they wouldn't have wound up just missing a wild card in 2022.  

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I think that's more of a convenient excuse than the primary cause for that team not making the playoffs - Yelich had a bad year, the team in general couldn't hit, Peralta missed alot of time in the rotation due to injury, and at the time the trade happened,  Hader was pitching terribly.  All that being said, that team still wound up 10 games over 0.500.  Hader was possibly the biggest reason the team was dropping in the standings after getting off to a 32-19 start to the year.  Once the calendar hit June, the team basically muddled around 0.500 in large part to the inconsistent offense and leaky back end of the bullpen that got overworked due to starters wearing down/getting injured.  Hader was on the roster when they went 3 games under 0.500 in June and hovered through mediocrity through most of July while he was sporting a 1.200+ OPS against and blowing saves.  Hader's August in San Diego was equally as bad - had he remained a Brewer with that production they wouldn't have wound up just missing a wild card in 2022.  

The 2022 team had a good offense. It was the pitching that let that team down.

[Thurston Fluff]

2 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Hader had another year of control and the Brewers coulda woulda got similar deal for him after 2022. Less likely, yep, but still similar.

The Hader trade sucked the life out of that clubhouse, along with not picking up a bat and cutting Lamet to keep a fringe pitcher around. Deadline deals are supposed to pick up a team like the Canha and Santana deal.  The Hader trade aftermath is also a big reason why Burnes was dealt this offseason instead of the middle of last or this season. And I will be shocked if Adames is dealt too with his contract up, mainly because of the Hader trade. 

I don't think any one trade made the difference that season. All things together made that a bad deadline trade year. Had they got the bat they wanted or one of the relievers would have pitched to their norm, or trading then DFAing one the Hader deal wouldn't have been viewed so negatively.

If there's one area during the Stearns tenure that deserves criticism it's he made more than one head scratching deadline trades. Every team makes mistakes but several of Stearns' didn't make sense either at the time or season's end.

[Playing Catch]

I think there are two parts of the debate... One, if it is a good idea to disrupt a playoff run by trading an important piece for future assets, and two, whether or not posters value the closer position.

I think many people that disliked the trade, or felt like it was a bad idea at the time, believe that closers are instrumental to successful teams, and others that believe that closers and saves are similar to RBI, and is really just a matter of circumstance.

I don't think the closer position is that important. I think that the reason that great teams often have really good closers is simply because they have really good bullpens, and often the best guy in the bullpen pitches at the end of games and racks up a lot of saves.

With that said, the trade made me pretty nervous at the time. Precisely because of what rick150 points out above. And not just the affect of irritating the other players, but by irritating the fanbase. What is easy to forget as time moves on, though, is that Hader's bad spell prior to the trade was REALLY bad. I'm sure management was worried about his torpedoing any trade value he had. At the time, I didn't like the trade, but was hopeful that Rodgers would be good enough, and that the prospects ended up working out. In hindsight, I think the trade still hinges on the success of Gasser. The Brewers didn't know they'd be able to turn Ruiz into Contreras+ at the time.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

The 2022 team had a good offense. It was the pitching that let that team down.

If by good you mean average, then I can't disagree....but the team has consistently been built to contend based on pitching and defense/run prevention - and the pitching definitely was a problem after injuries mounted and they had to churn through a series of youngsters/AAAA arms in the rotation

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

If by good you mean average, then I can't disagree....but the team has consistently been built to contend based on pitching and defense/run prevention - and the pitching definitely was a problem after injuries mounted and they had to churn through a series of youngsters/AAAA arms in the rotation

It was about the 10th best offense in the MLB by runs per game and wRC+. Pretty far from "the team in general couldn't hit" like you claimed.

[Fear The Chorizo]

41 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

It was about the 10th best offense in the MLB by runs per game and wRC+. Pretty far from "the team in general couldn't hit" like you claimed.

The 2022 Brewers scored 2 or fewer runs in 47 of their games played.  The wRC+ number that elevated them into the top half of league offense was bolstered by some inflated offensive games, too - they scored 10 or more runs in 11 games that included 18- and 19-run games. 

 

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, Matt said:

I don't believe for a second the Hader trade had any kind of impact on the clubhouse. The idea that 25 professionals would go into a collective sad spell over a business decision by management, one that was perfectly reasonable if not predictable, is crazy.

Yeah, I totally disagree with you on this.

Did you see the players reaction?  Even CC's reaction at the time was not what I expected from the manager.

David Stearns has admitted since that he had no idea it would effect the players like it did.

That trade 100% had an effect on the clubhouse, I don't see how anyone can say otherwise.

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The 2022 Brewers scored 2 or fewer runs in 47 of their games played.  The wRC+ number that elevated them into the top half of league offense was bolstered by some inflated offensive games, too - they scored 10 or more runs in 11 games that included 18- and 19-run games. 

Let's see the numbers for everyone else.

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I think that's more of a convenient excuse than the primary cause for that team not making the playoffs - Yelich had a bad year, the team in general couldn't hit, Peralta missed alot of time in the rotation due to injury, and at the time the trade happened,  Hader was pitching terribly.  All that being said, that team still wound up 10 games over 0.500.  Hader was possibly the biggest reason the team was dropping in the standings after getting off to a 32-19 start to the year.  Once the calendar hit June, the team basically muddled around 0.500 in large part to the inconsistent offense and leaky back end of the bullpen that got overworked due to starters wearing down/getting injured.  Hader was on the roster when they went 3 games under 0.500 in June and hovered through mediocrity through most of July while he was sporting a 1.200+ OPS against and blowing saves.  Hader's August in San Diego was equally as bad - had he remained a Brewer with that production they wouldn't have wound up just missing a wild card in 2022.  

Because it caused such drama in the clubhouse was not the reason for missing the playoffs, but psychologically, there was an effect for a few days, that can't be denied.

[TURBO]

58 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

It was about the 10th best offense in the MLB by runs per game and wRC+. Pretty far from "the team in general couldn't hit" like you claimed.

Ok, you picked runs per game and wRC+, where did they rank in EVERY other category, not just the ones you cherry picked to prove your point.  That offense was average at best.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Ok, you picked runs per game and wRC+, where did they rank in EVERY other category, not just the ones you cherry picked to prove your point.  That offense was average at best.

I mean I don't know what other numbers would matter. wRC+ is how they hit. Runs per game is how they scored. The people here who still insist that offense was not good just refuse to acknowledge how down the run scoring environment was in 2022. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me but the Brewers were one of the best teams in the MLB at scoring 4+, 5+, and 6+ runs. You just remember that the offense went cold at the end of the season and that raw numbers were unimpressive (because league offense was down) so you remember it as a bad offense. That's not what reality said.

[TURBO]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I mean I don't know what other numbers would matter. wRC+ is how they hit. Runs per game is how they scored. The people here who still insist that offense was not good just refuse to acknowledge how down the run scoring environment was in 2022. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me but the Brewers were one of the best teams in the MLB at scoring 4+, 5+, and 6+ runs. You just remember that the offense went cold at the end of the season and that raw numbers were unimpressive (because league offense was down) so you remember it as a bad offense. That's not what reality said.

Thank God you are here to tell me what I remember, thanks for that.

🤢

[sveumrules]

Brewers position players 2021
98 wRC+ | 17.9 WAR
Brewers position players 2022
103 wRC+ | 23.8 WAR

(The position players improved by about five percent at the plate and six wins overall from 2022 to 2021, kinda hard for me to blame them for the team losing nine games off their win total.)

Brewers rotation 2021
74 ERA- | 22.3 rWAR
Brewers rotation 2022
92 ERA- | 13.0 rWAR

(The rotation got about 18% worse at run prevention from 2022 to 2021 which cost the team about nine wins from the bottom line.)

Brewers relievers 2021
96 ERA- | +5.90 WPA
Brewers relievers 2022
97 ERA- | +1.68 WPA

(Reliever run prevention didn't change much year to year, but they gave up runs at a lot worse times in 2022 costing the team another four wins from the bottom line. Hader going from +5.05 WPA in 2021 to +0.76 WPA before being dealt is pretty much accounts for the entirety of the difference on his own.)
 

[edfunderburk]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

Awful trade then that got bailed out by a crazy good Contreras deal later.

Gasser for Hader straight up would have been a good trade 😉

[markedman5]