Keston Hiura has a .984 OPS in Nashville

[Outlander]

I really don't think that extra year of minor league control matter much since any team can pick him up in the rule 5 draft at that same salary,

[SeaBass]

19 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

IF there's anything to the weird extra year of roster control the Brewers have with Hiura due to him being on the MLB roster the full COVID season and it coming at a reduced salary being the reason why he hasn't been up in Milwaukee this season, his representation should look long and hard about filing a grievance with the players union.

I'd agree this would be a crappy reason to keep him in the minors if they've been using it as the sole and singular reason he hasn't gotten the call but the Brewers have had viable and very reasonable options that in my opinion mitigate that from being grievance worthy.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, Outlander said:

I really don't think that extra year of minor league control matter much since any team can pick him up in the rule 5 draft at that same salary,

I'm not familiar enough with the ramifications of that reduced salary option if the Brewers add Hiura back to the 40 man before the Rule V draft in the offseason...outside of Quero there really aren't any other prospects that would be a huge priority to protect this offseason, so the Brewers would have ample room to put Hiura back on their 40 man and protect him through spring training next season, too.  In the end we're talking the difference of a million bucks after they've been ok with paying Hiura a couple million to play all season in AAA (was a sunk cost anyway, just like lighting $8M on fire for Winker's "production" this season), so the value to the Brewers would be maintaining roster depth/flexibility (like it always is) and then heading into the 2024 Spring Training with Hiura and 18 other middling veteran options vying for part time MLB DH duty next season.

 

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Sigh - guessing Hiura would be among the league leaders in defensive range factor at the DH position...and if you'd look at a digital animation of his 2023 swing compared to what it looked like at various stages from 2020-2022 you wouldn't be able to tell it was the same player.

But sure, let's keep bringing up old and at this point worthless stats during sporadic at best playing time as reason why Hiura won't be able to hit if he was up in MLB again right now, while also neglecting to include his 2019 MLB stats that contradict the theory.

The reason why Hiura hasn't been called up this season is the Brewers value defensive versatility at the DH spot on their roster and they opted to pay ~$8M to Winker to OPS sub-600 at the MLB level and spend half the season in the minors himself rehabbing instead of DFA-ing him - both of which IMO is madness.  On top of that, they torched through Hiura's MiLB options far too readily in 2021 and 2022 because the other MLB vets who also weren't hitting at any given time didn't have options, so he's not on the 40 man roster at present, and a callup would require someone else to get DFA'd.   That makes even a September callup more difficult managing the roster than simply sending Hiura a plane ticket to Milwaukee on August 31.  A September callup would totally be the Brewers' way of managing Hiura at the MLB level once again - that would mean limited playing time, sporadic ABs, and even if he does hit well he wouldn't be eligible for the postseason roster.

IF there's anything to the weird extra year of roster control the Brewers have with Hiura due to him being on the MLB roster the full COVID season and it coming at a reduced salary being the reason why he hasn't been up in Milwaukee this season, his representation should look long and hard about filing a grievance with the players union.

What has changed with Hiura, since the Brewers cut him in Spring Training despite having a guaranteed contract? He always hit in AAA.

Just maybe, the Brewers had seen enough cumulatively this spring and decided to move on from Hiura, with no real intention of ever giving him another shot.
 

They couldn’t prevent him from reporting to AAA (which he was 100% going to do after going unclaimed in order to get that 2 million dollars), there was no upside to flat out releasing him, so they’re using him as roster filler in AAA. That he’s still there as we motor towards September means nobody else has come calling either. 
 

Viewed through that prism all the moves make sense and it’s irrelevant what Winker has done, or the struggles at the DH spot because Hiura wasn’t a going to be an option anyways. 
 

They’re smart baseball people running the team and have consistently gotten more out of less. Unless you don’t believe that, there is no illogical decision making. Maybe Hiura racks 40 homers next year for the Royals or Angels, then in hindsight we can say they made a huge mistake. 

[Never Outhustled]

16 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

What has changed with Hiura, since the Brewers cut him in Spring Training despite having a guaranteed contract? He always hit in AAA.

Just maybe, the Brewers had seen enough cumulatively this spring and decided to move on from Hiura, with no real intention of ever giving him another shot.
 

They couldn’t prevent him from reporting to AAA (which he was 100% going to do after going unclaimed in order to get that 2 million dollars), there was no upside to flat out releasing him, so they’re using him as roster filler in AAA. That he’s still there as we motor towards September means nobody else has come calling either. 
 

Viewed through that prism all the moves make sense and it’s irrelevant what Winker has done, or the struggles at the DH spot because Hiura wasn’t a going to be an option anyways. 
 

They’re smart baseball people running the team and have consistently gotten more out of less. Unless you don’t believe that, there is no illogical decision making. Maybe Hiura racks 40 homers next year for the Royals or Angels, then in hindsight we can say they made a huge mistake. 

Hiura had a major injury this year, and that is was huge reason he hasn't been called up. Now,  I don't understand why the Brewers are so invested in Rowdy, but that appears to be coming to an end

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

Hiura had a major injury this year, and that is was huge reason he hasn't been called up. Now,  I don't understand why the Brewers are so invested in Rowdy, but that appears to be coming to an end

Because Rowdy has been a better hitter than Hiura the last three seasons..

[Never Outhustled]

53 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Because Rowdy has been a better hitter than Hiura the last three seasons..

That's not true in either this year or last year. 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, Never Outhustled said:

That's not true in either this year or last year. 

Yes it is? Rowdy had a higher OPS last season. And the year before that. And the year before that. 

AAA numbers are irrelevant.

[BrewerFan]

47 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Because Rowdy has been a better hitter than Hiura the last three seasons..

Ok...so then why'd they dump Urias so quickly?

Urias-.244/340/426 .766 39 HRs    111  OPS+
Tellez- .228/.305/.444/.750 46 HRs 106 OPS+

Gets hurt in Spring Training, 20 games and he's gone?

If we're going on past performance, Urias seems like he deserved as least as long of a leash as Tellez got, no?

 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

What has changed with Hiura, since the Brewers cut him in Spring Training despite having a guaranteed contract? He always hit in AAA.

Have you seen his swing in AAA?

If yes, there's your answer.

If no...then his swing. That's what's changed. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, BrewerFan said:

Ok...so then why'd they dump Urias so quickly?

Urias-.244/340/426 .766 39 HRs    111  OPS+
Tellez- .228/.305/.444/.750 46 HRs 106 OPS+

Gets hurt in Spring Training, 20 games and he's gone?

If we're going on past performance, Urias seems like he deserved as least as long of a leash as Tellez got, no?

 

Tellez was the best hitter on the team this year until he got injured around the end of May/early June. They seem to think he's a better bet for a bounceback than Urias. 

[BrewerFan]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Tellez was the best hitter on the team this year until he got injured around the end of May/early June. They seem to think he's a better bet for a bounceback than Urias. 

This is kinda what I was getting at. It feels like a lot of opinions on here are based almost entirely on what the Brewers front office is doing and then justifying that.

You made an argument based exclusively on the numbers. Yet Urias was a better hitter, AND had the positional versatility, which Tellez does not. 

Urias struggled for 20 games coming off injury. Tellez in his last 34 games is hitting .144/.207./189 .396 OPS.

Winker has 61 games of a 199/.320/.247 .567 OPS production.

Last time we saw Hiura he put up 226/.316/.449 .765 OPS

He's ALSO completely overhauled his swing and appears to have closed some of the holes in it(not that AAA numbers count).

I really don't see how it's a defensible position to argue that Keston Hiura doesn't make the Milwaukee Brewers better at this point.

The ONLY defensible argument is they want to keep him on a MiLB deal so they can pay him 1.1 for next season. But we are trying to win now, so...

[BrewerFan]

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Tellez was the best hitter on the team this year until he got injured around the end of May/early June. They seem to think he's a better bet for a bounceback than Urias. 

He was in the lineup everyday until he went on the DL for a 10 day IL stay. That's 34 games from the time he was "injured" that they put him out there?

I'd say that's less reason, not more to just have blind faith in their handling of the 1B/DH situation. 

Why play a guy who's injured and is a black hole for you at the plate? Meanwhile in Boston in ~2/3rds of the ABs the Brewers gave Urias before they decided he wasn't a good bounceback candidate, he's putting up an .800 OPS.

Now...is that a tiny sample size? Of course. And yet it's not that much smaller than the one they gave Urias to prove himself after the previous two seasons in which he outperformed Tellez offensively across the board.

 

I'm merely saying, the "they think," or "the front office believes" in the face of actual numbers might not quite be the trump card we think it is given how they've been unable to get much production from the two easiest positions tot create production from.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, BrewerFan said:

He was in the lineup everyday until he went on the DL for a 10 day IL stay. That's 34 games from the time he was "injured" that they put him out there?

I'd say that's less reason, not more to just have blind faith in their handling of the 1B/DH situation. 

Why play a guy who's injured and is a black hole for you at the plate? Meanwhile in Boston in ~2/3rds of the ABs the Brewers gave Urias before they decided he wasn't a good bounceback candidate, he's putting up an .800 OPS.

Now...is that a tiny sample size? Of course. And yet it's not that much smaller than the one they gave Urias to prove himself after the previous two seasons in which he outperformed Tellez offensively across the board.

 

I'm merely saying, the "they think," or "the front office believes" in the face of actual numbers might not quite be the trump card we think it is given how they've been unable to get much production from the two easiest positions tot create production from.

We know he was injured with right forearm inflammation. That's why he initially went on the IL and is the type of injury that tends to affect your hitting ability. Nothing "blind" about that, though you could argue to what extent it actually affected him. But judging by how his numbers completely tailed off starting in early June, I would say it affected him quite a bit. 

On the other hand your Hiura argument relies on AAA stats and a .765 OPS (Rowdy's was better in a much larger SS) that comes with the huge caveat of a 42% K rate. If you want to go further back for MLB stats, it doesn't help your argument either, because Hiura was absolutely terrible at the plate in 2021 and 2020.. There's more "blind faith" in declaring Hiura to be a surefire upgrade right now. 

[BrewerFan]

14 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

We know he was injured with right forearm inflammation. That's why he initially went on the IL and is the type of injury that tends to affect your hitting ability. Nothing "blind" about that, though you could argue to what extent it actually affected him. But judging by how his numbers completely tailed off starting in early June, I would say it affected him quite a bit. 

On the other hand your Hiura argument relies on AAA stats and a .765 OPS (Rowdy's was better in a much larger SS) that comes with the huge caveat of a 42% K rate. If you want to go further back for MLB stats, it doesn't help your argument either, because Hiura was absolutely terrible at the plate in 2021 and 2020.. There's more "blind faith" in declaring Hiura to be a surefire upgrade right now. 

I don't actually know that's when he hurt his forearm as it feels very much like a "this guy needs a break/generic injury," type of DL visits and then he got his finger stuck in the wall. 

 

Now with regard to qualifying Hiura's production last year, we could also point out that he would regularly sit after having a productive day or that despite having reverse splits, he would often sit vs righties and play vs lefties, but I don't feel like I need to do that. It's baseball. The numbers speak for themselves. 

I did miss the part where anyone said he'd be a "surefire" upgrade as opposed to the numbers and arguments used against him are contradictory EVERY-SINGLE-TIME. 

 

Keston Hiura was a productive hitter last year...and he came back with a VERY different swing and approach and it appears to be working.

 

Yet on a team that seems to be challenging the '21 Sox for most players on their active roster during an MLB season, the former top ~20 prospect with an OPS around 1.000 in AAA is still not among them. 
So again, it's less about the GUARANTEE that he'd be an upgrade and the..."what in the hell do we have to lose/what more can he do," type of logic.

And I fully suspect if they called him up tomorrow, you'd be in favor of the move(please, correct me if I'm wrong). 

I get the faith the front office has earned....but it does seem to be blind faith at this point.

 

 

Hell, I'll even accept the, "they can keep him for an extra year as a MiLB Free Agent as a justification. NOT that he's simply not good enough. He's proven he is and he can be good enough to give this team a good boost(STILL not a guarantee that he's a "surefire" anything).

[Brewcrew82]

14 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I don't actually know that's when he hurt his forearm as it feels very much like a "this guy needs a break/generic injury," type of DL visits and then he got his finger stuck in the wall. 

 

Now with regard to qualifying Hiura's production last year, we could also point out that he would regularly sit after having a productive day or that despite having reverse splits, he would often sit vs righties and play vs lefties, but I don't feel like I need to do that. It's baseball. The numbers speak for themselves. 

I did miss the part where anyone said he'd be a "surefire" upgrade as opposed to the numbers and arguments used against him are contradictory EVERY-SINGLE-TIME. 

 

Keston Hiura was a productive hitter last year...and he came back with a VERY different swing and approach and it appears to be working.

 

Yet on a team that seems to be challenging the '21 Sox for most players on their active roster during an MLB season, the former top ~20 prospect with an OPS around 1.000 in AAA is still not among them. 
So again, it's less about the GUARANTEE that he'd be an upgrade and the..."what in the hell do we have to lose/what more can he do," type of logic.

And I fully suspect if they called him up tomorrow, you'd be in favor of the move(please, correct me if I'm wrong). 

I get the faith the front office has earned....but it does seem to be blind faith at this point.

 

 

Hell, I'll even accept the, "they can keep him for an extra year as a MiLB Free Agent as a justification. NOT that he's simply not good enough. He's proven he is and he can be good enough to give this team a good boost(STILL not a guarantee that he's a "surefire" anything).

I'll reiterate what I said. There's more blind faith in assuming that Hiura will upgrade the lineup given his demonstrated severe issues making contact in the majors over the course of his career and his stats since his rookie season.

Any "swing changes" and AAA stats serve to reinforce that "blind faith". Luke Voit, for instance, has  a better AAA slash line this year than Hiura. Hiura's talented, for sure, but I'll have to see it at the major league level to believe that anything has materially changed for him at this point. 

[BrewerFan]

7 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'll reiterate what I said. There's more blind faith in assuming that Hiura will upgrade the lineup given his demonstrated severe issues making contact in the majors over the course of his career and his stats since his rookie season.

Any "swing changes" and AAA stats serve to reinforce that "blind faith". Luke Voit, for instance, has  a better AAA slash line this year than Hiura. Hiura's talented, for sure, but I'll have to see it at the major league level to believe that anything has materially changed for him at this point. 

You know, you're just continuing to repeat the same claim even AFTER I've directly addressed it. You make your argument and please don't change mine to serve yours.  

 

8 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Yet on a team that seems to be challenging the '21 Sox for most players on their active roster during an MLB season, the former top ~20 prospect with an OPS around 1.000 in AAA is still not among them. 
So again, it's less about the GUARANTEE that he'd be an upgrade and the..."what in the hell do we have to lose/what more can he do," type of logic.

 

8 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I did miss the part where anyone said he'd be a "surefire" upgrade as opposed to the numbers and arguments used against him are contradictory EVERY-SINGLE-TIME. 

 

So...who's saying he'd be a surefire or a guaranteed upgrade?

 

Where is anyone guaranteeing anything here? 
This is REALLY quite simple.

The Brewers are getting very little production out of 1B/DH.

The Brewers have a player in their minor league system who's playing 1B/DH who was a former top prospect, has exceptional bat speed and who's overhauled his swing in the past year to make better contact.

The Brewers have also used I believe it's over 50 different players this year trying to find SOME production...

 

So maybe it's time to give Hiura another chance or opportunity. See how that differs from a "surefire guarantee?"  

 

Conversely, why are we acting like there is a surefire guarantee that Tellez is going to bounce back from what's been an awful hitter since May? Or any number of players? 

7 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Any "swing changes" and AAA stats serve to reinforce that "blind faith".

And once more with the "blind faith."

 

Your arguments are so fluid, they really just fit whatever point you're making at the time.

7 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Luke Voit, for instance, has  a better AAA slash line this year than Hiura.

Luke Voit played 8 games for the Brewers in AAA, did NOT have better numbers than Hiura and he was given an opportunity. I feel like you're making the point for me(and everyone who thinks it can't possibly hurt to give Hiura another opportunity).

7 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Hiura's talented, for sure, but I'll have to see it at the major league level to believe that anything has materially changed for him at this point. 

Right. And this requires them at some point actually providing him the opportunity to do so...which is the entire point here. 

 

MAYBE someone is guaranteeing he'll do whatever. I haven't seen it.
The argument has simply been...he's done just about everything you could reasonably ask a guy to do in order to earn another opportunity on the 26 man roster. 

And I was even fine for a while with the MiLB route and bringing him back for another year. But if he can come up and have an impact this year, that shouldn't be a deciding factor. 

 

[Brewcrew82]

23 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

You know, you're just continuing to repeat the same claim even AFTER I've directly addressed it. You make your argument and please don't change my to serve yours.  

 

 

 

So...who's saying he'd be a surefire or a guaranteed upgrade?

 

Where is anyone guaranteeing anything here? 
This is REALLY quite simple.

The Brewers are getting very little production out of 1B/DH.

The Brewers have a player in their minor league system who's playing 1B/DH who was a former top prospect, has exceptional bat speed and who's overhauled his swing in the past year to make better contact.

The Brewers have also used I believe it's over 50 players this year trying to find SOME production...

 

So maybe it's time to give Hiura another chance or opportunity. See how that differs from a "surefire guarantee?"  

 

Conversely, why are we acting like there is a surefire guarantee that Tellez is going to bounce back from what's been an awful hit since May? Or any number of players? 

And once more with the "blind faith."

 

Your arguments are so fluid, they really just fit whatever point you're making at the time.

Luke Voit played 8 games for the Brewers in AAA, did NOT have better numbers than Hiura and he was given an opportunity. I feel like you're making the point for me(and everyone who thinks it can't possibly hurt to give Hiura another opportunity).

Right. And this requires them at some point actually providing him the opportunity to do so...which is the entire point here. 

 

MAYBE someone is guaranteeing he'll do whatever. I haven't seen it.
The argument has simply been...he's done just about everything you could reasonably ask a guy to do in order to earn another opportunity on the 26 man roster. 

And I was even fine for a while with the MiLB route and bringing him back for another year. But if he can come up and have an impact this year, that shouldn't be a deciding factor. 

 

This thing is so unreadable that I'm not even going to bother addressing it all.

I will say Luke Voit has a better slashline at AAA this year than Hiura. That's factual and indisputable. AAA numbers mean next to nothing.

[torts]

How is this still going????

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This thing is so unreadable that I'm not even going to bother addressing it all.

I will say Luke Voit has a better slashline at AAA this year than Hiura. That's factual and indisputable. AAA numbers mean next to nothing.

Ok, let me try it again.

If it's not too much trouble, stop changing my argument to benefit your argument.

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

There's more "blind faith" in declaring Hiura to be a surefire upgrade right now. 

Show me where I've said this? And since you can't, explain why you continue to make this argument?

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I will say Luke Voit has a better slashline at AAA this year than Hiura. That's factual and indisputable. AAA numbers mean next to nothing.

He played EIGHT GAMES with the Brewers in AAA and correct me if I'm wrong, the Brewers did call him up, right?

I think you're kinda making the point. The Brewers have given everyone a chance but Hiura who you guarantee will not be an upgrade.

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This thing is so unreadable that I'm not even going to bother addressing it all.

I will say Luke Voit has a better slashline at AAA this year than Hiura. That's factual and indisputable. AAA numbers mean next to nothing.

Bad AAA numbers often mean no call up… that is true at about every level. And vice versa, when hitting/pitching well, a call up is the norm. No one is guaranteeing great results. It’s just more than time to see what he can do. Love that you keep going to Voit as an example… he actually got an opportunity to play because of results. That would be nice for Hiura.

[rickh150]

10 minutes ago, torts said:

How is this still going????

He is still in AAA. 
Glad you are adding to it.

[rickh150]

6 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I think you're kinda making the point. The Brewers have given everyone a chance but Hiura who you guarantee will not be an upgrade.

He’s the guy that yells certainly, “There is no truth!” and then never realizes he is making a truth statement.

 

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Bad AAA numbers often mean no call up… that is true at about every level. And vice versa, when hitting/pitching well, a call up is the norm. No one is guaranteeing great results. It’s just more than time to see what he can do. Love that you keep going to Voit as an example… he actually got an opportunity to play because of results. That would be nice for Hiura.

Not really. Almost all of those AAA #s came with the Mets, a bad team who declined to call him up in spite of his stats. Now, Voit is a free agent and hasn't even managed to latch on with another team. A lot like Hiura after the Brewers removed him from the 40 man after ST and nobody opted to place a claim on him...

Some players are AAAA players. I won't ever close the door on Hiura because he has the bat speed and the talent, but he's got major, major contact issues and I trust the Brewers' evaluation. 

[rickh150]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Not really. Almost all of those AAA #s came with the Mets, a bad team who declined to call him up in spite of his stats. Now, Voit is a free agent and hasn't even managed to latch on with another team. A lot like Hiura after the Brewers removed him from the 40 man after ST and nobody opted to place a claim on him...

Some players are AAAA players. I won't ever close the door on Hiura because he has the bat speed and the talent, but he's got major, major contact issues and I trust the Brewers' evaluation. 

So you are all in on whatever the Brewers decide to do with him… and hedging if he does well (“bat speed and TALENT”) and I told you so if he does poorly. Got it covered well.