Upcoming Rule 5 Eligibles

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Players need to be added to the 40 man roster by next Tuesday to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.

Quero is still a lock, but I don't see anyone else that needs to be protected. I'm still thinking Devanney has a chance as well as Blalock. The Brewers have an unprecedented 6 open spots on the 40 man and that could increase if they make some non-tenders (Woodruff, Toro, Tellez), so there is no risk to add these guys. Devanney has a really good chance of being called up next year to fill a utility role. Blalock is likely to move quickly through the system. So, they will be a tough call for management.

The rest of the players I had been considering over the summer, all pretty much slumped or stayed level and I think they are unlikely to be protected. Isaac Collins being an exception but he only got a brief callup to AAA. He needs to perform in AAA before I would consider him. A 25 year old doing well in AA is not all that special that he needs to be protected.

[brewmann04]

the crew needs to protect the arms in the system

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

Players need to be added to the 40 man roster by next Tuesday to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.

Quero is still a lock, but I don't see anyone else that needs to be protected. I'm still thinking Devanney has a chance as well as Blalock. The Brewers have an unprecedented 6 open spots on the 40 man and that could increase if they make some non-tenders (Woodruff, Toro, Tellez), so there is no risk to add these guys. Devanney has a really good chance of being called up next year to fill a utility role. Blalock is likely to move quickly through the system. So, they will be a tough call for management.

The rest of the players I had been considering over the summer, all pretty much slumped or stayed level and I think they are unlikely to be protected. Isaac Collins being an exception but he only got a brief callup to AAA. He needs to perform in AAA before I would consider him. A 25 year old doing well in AA is not all that special that he needs to be protected.

I think they should/need to protect Tobias Myers. His FB has elite traits that would definitely play up in a bullpen role where his FB is sitting more upper 90’s than mid to lower 90’s.

[LouisEly]

Agree on Myers.  Also, because they'll probably need SP depth, especially if Burnes is traded, and given the number of spots available, I think McKendry could get added.  Maybe Seminaris too as Milner is the only healthy LHRP on the roster.

Not saying those guys are great prospects, but with so many spots available and needs at SP and LHRP, better to not risk losing them and have even less depth.  Can always outright if the roster fills up with better players.

[CheeseheadInQC]

OK, Quero's not really worth discussing he's such a lock, so here are the others:

Hitters: It feels like if they were going to protect anyone, it would be Cam Devanney, but if they were going to protect Devanney, they probably would have last season. The case for Devanney: In all, 16 players who played a significant amount of shortstop tallied 300 plate appearances in triple-A last year while posting at least a wRC+ of 103 (Devanney's was 107). I believe Devanney is the only one not to spend any time in the majors. Of the others, Zamora was too erratic last year to probably get picked, Collins, well, I just can't really see a good reason to rank him above Devanney at this juncture.

Pitchers: This is a bit more complex. There are a couple of interesting arms elsewhere on this list, but for me it comes down to five names:

Probably not, but worth mentioning: Alexander Cornielle. Had stronger peripherals than you would expect last season. Probably doesn't fit the mold as much as Blaylock among the lower level guys, but is close enough where he should be mentioned, in my opinion.

Stranger things have happened: Justin Yeager, Evan McKendry. Yeager has been OK in the AFL, but I don't think he's been earn a 40-man spot good after what was otherwise a lost season. McKendry feels like the type of guy right now whose primary value would be the ability to get the occasional spot start out of him while he continues to work in triple-A. Obviously that wouldn't be an option for a team taking him in the Rule 5.

Toss a Coin: Bradley Blaylock, Tobias Myers. Blaylock has the most prospect pedigree in the group, but is it enough to get him picked. He might only be at a 20% chance of being picked, but with some 40-man spots to spare, it might be worth it to the Brewers not to take that risk. Myers came on big late last season and was at least a moderately highly thought of prospect fairly recently, albeit one the Indians now wish they had never heard of.

[brewmann04]

I will like to see who other teams fails to protect and might be in interest of the crew.

[SF70]

Quero-Myers-Devanney.

Quero of course. 

Myers stuff out of the pen is too strong to potentially lose. Shuttle arm next season.

Devanney can field, throw and slug. In my opinion he should be given an opportunity to beat out Monasterio for a roster spot.with MKE. His power and SS play gets him past Monasterio if I’m the GM.

[MadThinker88]

I am surprised to see Tobias Myers listed as a possible R5 protection.  I would urge caution as I see him as a bit of Fool's Gold.

He was already added to the Tampa 40 man years ago, got traded to the Cleveland at 40 man roster deadline in 2021 (for Junior Caminero no less) and pitched like dung to be sent away from CLE & its 40 man/ minor league system.

IF Tobias has really turned it around again & found himself, power to him but I would be very careful.

[CheeseheadInQC]

3 minutes ago, MadThinker88 said:

I am surprised to see Tobias Myers listed as a possible R5 protection.  I would urge caution as I see him as a bit of Fool's Gold.

He was already added to the Tampa 40 man years ago, got traded to the Cleveland at 40 man roster deadline in 2021 (for Junior Caminero no less) and pitched like dung to be sent away from CLE & its 40 man/ minor league system.

IF Tobias has really turned it around again & found himself, power to him but I would be very careful.

Hasn’t his issue been, to some degree, fluctuating velocity? In years where it is up, he looks like a legit prospect. In years where it is down, he gets hit hard.

Regardless, all it would cost is a 40-man spot in a year the Brewers have a lot of them. It’s not like they are giving up a future top 10 prospect for him (sorry Cleveland).

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, MadThinker88 said:

I am surprised to see Tobias Myers listed as a possible R5 protection.  I would urge caution as I see him as a bit of Fool's Gold.

He was already added to the Tampa 40 man years ago, got traded to the Cleveland at 40 man roster deadline in 2021 (for Junior Caminero no less) and pitched like dung to be sent away from CLE & its 40 man/ minor league system.

IF Tobias has really turned it around again & found himself, power to him but I would be very careful.

He had 34.2% and 26.9% K rates over just under 60 IP each at A+/AA with TBR in 2021.

For whatever reason (injury, wasn’t ready for AAA yet) that bottomed out to 14.1% over 60 IP at AAA with CLE in 2022.

This year he bounced back to a 28.7% K rate over 137 IP at AA.

[Joseph Zarr]

You are surprised to see Myers included if you didn't see him pitch in 2023.

The visual matters and the entire journey tells the tale. He worked through many things in the meat of the season. BUT, he is a workhorse. On more than one occasion, I lamented he was leading with a flat four-seamer that topped out at 95mph. By season's end, however, he had improved his entire arsenal and most notably he was dealing a high-ride high-rising four-seamer that was touching 98mph in a relief role. He was shutdown dominant in his brief late-season call-up to Triple-A Nashville out of their bullpen. 

Keep in mind he is still a young 25 years old. Biloxi speaking, now, by season's end it was clear Myers and Shook had evolved into the heart of the Shuckers pitching staff and the core by which they pushed for the playoffs.

Anywho, we know these lists historically lean toward pitching. Seeing Myers added to the 40-Man would be entirely unsurprising to me.

[wibadgers23]

 

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, wibadgers23 said:

 

Assuming this is all, it was always the most likely outcome, but with the number of roster spots I was expecting a surprise.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

The Brewers still have until tomorrow to add players to the 40 man roster. Its highly unlikely but still possible they could add another prospect. More likely is the Brewers capitalize on their open spots and swing a trade for a player who needs to be protected from a team in a roster crunch.  The Brewers may be leaving these spots open to see what trades they can swing.

[Jim Goulart]

 

[Jim Goulart]

Initial post has been updated to include recent minor league free agent signings (Hernandez, Paredes, Koenig) and the removal of released RHP Miguel Segura.

[Jim Goulart]

I've added Sam Carlson to the list above though his official transaction has yet to post.

Carlson has lost too much time to injury to be considered for selection this year, but I always found it odd that teams announce minor league signings officially prior to Rule 5. Just wait until the next day and post then, though the league likely would frown on that.

That's how future Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey was taken in Rule 5!

Article linked below adds a layer of intrigue to this signing.

 

[Jim Goulart]

An updated initial post of this thread now includes the following header:

Here are the players the Brewers could lose in the 2023 Rule 5 draft. The team will put together a list of players protected at the "AAA" level (a maximum of 38), regardless of the last level played seen below. Players not included on that list could be taken in the Minor League phase of Rule 5, and the selecting team simply then owns that player, they won't be returned under any circumstances.

There are 48 names listed below. In determining who they may wish to expose to that minor league phase, it may not necessarily be the furthest away from the higher levels. Organizations have exposed players to the minor league phase at times as a de-facto favor, perhaps giving them a new opportunity, while still retaining them as depth pieces if not selected.

[Ro Mueller]

Pure speculation with no offense to the hard-working players:

I'm guessing that the McGee, Hicklen and Carlson additions are not yet official, meaning that we would only need to expose 7 players to the minor league phase.

I'd guess those would be: P Rafael Garcia, P Fray Morelo, OF Reidy Mercado, C Nick Kahle, INF Yonny Hernandez (hitting 2-for-49 in Venezuela), INF Jose Acosta and P Jeferson Figueroa.

However, if I assume that the McGee, Hicklen and Carlson additions are official, then I'd add OF Terence Doston, P Nick Bennett and P Christian Mejias.

Of course if we lose any players in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 draft (e.g. Evan McKendry, Cam Devanney, Freddy Zamora, Tobias Myers, Justin Yeager, Isaac Collins, Patrick Dorrian, Carlos D. Rodriguez, Alexander Cornielle), then we'd be able to protect more in the minor league phase.