Padres (Darvish) vs Brewers (Woodruff): 8/25/23, 7:10pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Another tough matchup in the Padres. Despite their losing record, they're still a potent team and their performance has been mostly inexplicable. Let's hope that continues for the next few days because the Cubs get to tee off against the Pirates this weekend.

[treego14]

[wibadgers23]

The Padres are 6 games under .500 but carry a plus-62 run differential. I’m guessing they’ve had a few really big blowout wins and a bunch of 1 and 2 run losses. Such a strange team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, wibadgers23 said:

The Padres are 6 games under .500 but carry a plus-62 run differential. I’m guessing they’ve had a few really big blowout wins and a bunch of 1 and 2 run losses. Such a strange team.

I believe that's exactly what has happened. Without looking, I think their one-run record is awful.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Good lord, the Padres are 6-19 in one-run games.

[Jake McKibbin]

29 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Good lord, the Padres are 6-19 in one-run games.

I heard the MKE tailgate saying about how apparently having a lights out closer alone doesn't make you good in one run games

[RobertCrawley]

Looking for Big Woo to lock down those Padre bats.

[willie key]

Are the cubs really going to sweep the pirates for the season

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I heard the MKE tailgate saying about how apparently having a lights out closer alone doesn't make you good in one run games

A good/great bullpen can help a little in one run games but the effect is overblown because of the variance in both offense and pitching compensating.

If you have a great bullpen and go into the sixth with a one run lead, you might have a four run lead in the ninth.

If you have a bad bullpen and go into the sixth with a four run lead, you might have a one run lead in the ninth.

It all tends to balance out over 162. Most of a bad one-run game record is due to bad luck in sequencing, not any enlightenment from the coaching staff or shut-down ability of the bullpen (though both can obviously help).

Which is explained by the very low correlation YoY of one-run victories/losses, even when the same roster is brought back to play again. Just last year, the Padres were 30-17 in one-run games.

[Jake McKibbin]

43 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

A good/great bullpen can help a little in one run games but the effect is overblown because of the variance in both offense and pitching compensating.

If you have a great bullpen and go into the sixth with a one run lead, you might have a four run lead in the ninth.

If you have a bad bullpen and go into the sixth with a four run lead, you might have a one run lead in the ninth.

It all tends to balance out over 162. Most of a bad one-run game record is due to bad luck in sequencing, not any enlightenment from the coaching staff or shut-down ability of the bullpen (though both can obviously help).

Which is explained by the very low correlation YoY of one-run victories/losses, even when the same roster is brought back to play again. Just last year, the Padres were 30-17 in one-run games.

Does this make it all the more remarkable how consistently the Brewers have excelled at this under Counsell?

[Baldkin]

Never forget. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Does this make it all the more remarkable how consistently the Brewers have excelled at this under Counsell?

I think so, yeah. 

[treego14]

[markedman5]

 

[Brewcrew82]

Rowdy is going to have to show some signs of life in this series. 

[JCREW]

35 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Rowdy is going to have to show some signs of life in this series. 

How many people have ever been DFAd on the day after their bobble head?

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, JCREW said:

How many people have ever been DFAd on the day after their bobble head?

I don't know. But we're getting to that point. 

[SeaBass]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I don't know. But we're getting to that point. 

We are? He's been back for two games! 7 PA, 3 BB and an RBI. Sheesh.

 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, SeaBass said:

We are? He's been back for two games! 7 PA, 3 BB and an RBI. Sheesh.

 

0 hits, .429 OPS.....Can't afford to wait forever. I'm not saying after this weekend, but I'm saying he has to start showing something and soon. 

[SeaBass]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

0 hits, .429 OPS.....Can't afford to wait forever. I'm not saying after this weekend, but I'm saying he has to start showing something and soon. 

7 PA, how many hits would it take? 9? 17?

[treego14]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

0 hits, .429 OPS.....Can't afford to wait forever. I'm not saying after this weekend, but I'm saying he has to start showing something and soon. 

Relax ... we are not paying him the max!

We have Santana now, who is giving us pow!

💫

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

7 PA, how many hits would it take? 9? 17?

Not a specific number, but at some point he has to show signs of hitting the ball hard. Or are we going to pretend it's not been since May 22nd since he hit a HR and he's had a sub .500 OPS in the meantime? That kind of production is unacceptable for someone who otherwise presents severe negative value with the glove and on the bases. 

[SeaBass]

0-4 with 3 walks in 2 games since missing nearly 2 months and complaining he has a "sub .500 OPS" is more than a little over dramatic for my tastes. And that's all I'm going to say about it.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, JCREW said:

How many people have ever been DFAd on the day after their bobble head?

Jeffrey Hammonds?

[willie key]

46 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

7 PA, how many hits would it take? 9? 17?

Rowdy has more than 7 plate appearances this year

im willing to bet that