Twenty-six for October: Projecting the Brewers Playoff Roster

[Michael Trzinski]

As we get closer to the finalization of the Milwaukee Brewers playoff spot, inquiring minds want to know: who will take the field for our beloved Brewers in the three-game Wild Card Series in early October and hopefully beyond?

Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Brewer Fanatic

Based on recent games, call-ups, and demotions, here is one man’s prediction based on the semi-cloudy crystal ball on a dining room table somewhere in Port Edwards, WI.

CATCHER
William Contreras
Victor Caratini

This is the easiest position to predict, as iron man Contreras has appeared in 132 games this year, slashing .284/.362/.460 across 573 trips to the plate. When he needs to take a break - which is seldom - Caratini (.252/.327/.382) performs admirably. 

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FIRST BASE 
Carlos Santana
Rowdy Tellez

The righty/lefty ‘platoon’ of Santana and Tellez has struggled in September, batting a combined 21-for-98 (.214). Still, they have the potential to knock some balls out of the park (22 combined taters in 477 ABs) and make manager Craig Counsell forget about that low batting average.

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SECOND BASE
Brice Turang
Andruw Monasterio

Turang (.218/.287/.304) should get the most starts here, but Monasterio - usually a third baseman - will occasionally start at the keystone. Turang is much better defensively, but if he struggles at the dish, watch for Andruw to slide into the lineup.

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THIRD BASE
Josh Donaldson
Andruw Monasterio

Donaldson has started seven of the 11 games at the hot corner since he arrived in Milwaukee, and it seems he will continue to do so. Although hitting just .219/.324/.469 in 32 ABs, he has been an RBI machine (seven in nine games). Monasterio will fill in as needed at both second and third.

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SHORTSTOP
Willy Adames
Brice Turang

Adames has struggled this year(.213/.305/.407) but has been heating up in September, batting .264 with 13 ribbies in his last 53 ABs since Labor Day. Turang has filled in as needed, making nine starts at his original position.

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OUTFIELD
Mark Canha
Sal Frelick
Tyrone Taylor
Christian Yelich
Blake Perkins
Garrett Mitchell

Counsell has been playing mix-and-match with his outfielders this month, with Canha (14), Taylor (15), and Frelick (18) all getting more than a dozen starts. Perkins has been playing well since returning from Nashville, batting .273 (3-for-11) with one homer while making four starts in CF. Frelick will most likely get the majority of the nods from Counsell in the middle spot, while Canha and Taylor have been flip-flopping between LF and RF.

Yelich was sidelined for much of September with his balky back and the Brewers will keep him on the roster, allowing him to rest leading up to the postseason. Mitchell is on a rehab assignment and could return to Milwaukee on September 25, working on strengthening his left shoulder. If these two guys can get close to 100%, it will be a psychological boost for the Brewers, not to mention a little more offense and defense for the club.

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STARTERS
Corbin Burnes
Brandon Woodruff
Freddy Peralta
Adrian Houser
Wade Miley (LH)

Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta are arguably the top starting threesome in baseball today and will start the three games in the NL Wild Card Series beginning October 3. Houser and Miley are capable starters and could pitch in relief if needed, although Miley has only pitched seven times in relief in his 13-year big league career.

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RELIEVERS
Hoby Milner (LH)
Andrew Chafin (LH)
Bryse Wilson
Joel Payamps
Abner Uribe
Devin Williams
Elvis Peguero

The Brewers have to feel good about their bullpen. Let’s start with Williams, who has 35 saves and a WHIP of 0.918. This guy is the definition of a ‘lights-out’ closer. Milner is a lefty specialist, and Chafin will be the second southpaw out of the ‘pen.

Wilson, Payamps, and Uribe all have WHIPs under 1.09, combining for a very effective set-up group for Williams. Peguero is currently on the IL and is hoped to return in time for the beginning of the Wild Card Series.

The Brewers have had a nice run this year, getting stronger in September while second-place Chicago faded. Since taking over first place on August 3 for good in the NL Central, Milwaukee has played at a clip of .659 (29-15). They currently have a ‘World Series win’ possibility on Baseball-Reference.com of 7.5%.

If they keep playing well and the baseball ‘gods’ are kind, Milwaukee has a nice chance of winning their first World Series.

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[wiguy94]

Take one of Houser/Wilson out and put in Megill.

[Brian]

This postseason Brewers roster was on MLB.com  But I sure don't like Brian Anderson on it except that he can play multiple positions.

What could the postseason roster look like?

After playing with a 28-man roster in September, teams revert to 26 players with a maximum of 13 pitchers in each round of the postseason, with rosters due prior to the first pitch of each Game 1. The biggest variable is the breakdown of pitchers and hitters; some teams might go with as few as 10 pitchers in a best-of-three series, and others might max out at 13. Based on the Brewers' current personnel, it seems like the final choice is between Adrian Houser as an extra "length" option or Brian Anderson as an extra defender. Since the Brewers have only found three plate appearances for Anderson in two games over the last full month, it sure seems they don't see any role for him in the postseason. But if he's not on the roster, it means carrying only one extra infielder who can play second, third and short. That seems thin. So, we threw a dart and went with 11 pitchers, 15 position players.

C: William Contreras, Victor Caratini
1B: Carlos Santana, Rowdy Tellez
2B: Brice Turang, Andruw Monasterio
3B: Josh Donaldson, Brian Anderson
SS: Willy Adames
OF: Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins, Tyrone Taylor, Christian Yelich
DH: Mark Canha
SP: Corbin Burnes
SP: Brandon Woodruff
SP: Freddy Peralta
RP: Devin Williams
RP: Joel Payamps
RP: Abner Uribe
RP: Hoby Milner
RP: Trevor Megill
RP: Elvis Peguero
RP: Bryse Wilson
RP: Wade Miley

[Michael Trzinski]

I have also seen Megill IN, and Peguero OUT. Who knows. Any maybe Counsell will go 13/13 on the batter/pitcher breakdown instead of 14/12. Time will tell...

[Outlander]

Where did you see either Megill or Peguero out? That has no chance unless Peguero is still injured. Close to as zero as possible that Megill is off the roster.

[Trax]

Houser if healthy will be on the roster

[BrewersRice]

C: William Contreras, Victor Caratini
1B: Carlos Santana, Owen Miller
2B: Brice Turang, Andruw Monasterio
3B: Josh Donaldson, Abraham Toro
SS: Willy Adames
OF: Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins, Tyrone Taylor, Christian Yelich
DH: Mark Canha
SP: Corbin Burnes
SP: Brandon Woodruff
SP: Freddy Peralta
RP: Devin Williams
RP: Joel Payamps
RP: Abner Uribe
RP: Hoby Milner
RP: Trevor Megill
RP: Elvis Peguero
RP: Bryse Wilson
RP: Adrian Houser

[Michael Trzinski]

19 hours ago, Outlander said:

Where did you see either Megill or Peguero out? That has no chance unless Peguero is still injured. Close to as zero as possible that Megill is off the roster.

My projection had Peguero being healthy. OTW, Megill prob gets the spot.

[Team Canada]

Which roster are you predicting exactly? The WC roster will definitely not look like that. If you're predicting beyond that, then maybe. But in no scenario do you have 5 starters.

[Jim French Stepstool]

A lot of this boils down to how CC feels about Houser/Miley working out of the pen. I'm sure Miley could do it once in a 3-game set, which would most likely bump Chafin. If both, then you have Megill/Wilson in a perilous position for a roster spot assuming Peguero returns.

I didn't see Mitchell being added but a lot of you do, and I must admit his being in Milwaukee this week is sort of telling.

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

A lot of this boils down to how CC feels about Houser/Miley working out of the pen. I'm sure Miley could do it once in a 3-game set, which would most likely bump Chafin. If both, then you have Megill/Wilson in a perilous position for a roster spot assuming Peguero returns.

I didn't see Mitchell being added but a lot of you do, and I must admit his being in Milwaukee this week is sort of telling.

The Mitchell thing is baffling. We already have lefties in the OF...I don't get why you're going with him over Wiemer. Yes, I get Wiemer needed ABs(he got a handful)...Mitchell is even more limited than Wiemer and missed the whole year. 

 

I love to be wrong about things like this. I hope it's the "You couldn't write a script like this," story where he comes through in Game3 of the WC Round with a bases clearing double in the 7th or a great catch and OF assist. And Frankly, taking it a step further, I'd just as soon have Mitchell and Wiemer on the roster and keep Tellez off, but I still...for literally no good reason have some confidence in him in big spots. It's entirely unreasonable, but...what can I say.

That lineup allows for a lot of pinch hitting, pinch running and an OF that would be ridiculous with Frelick/Mitchell/Wiemer?

I don't even know how they value the 3(I have Mitchell 3rd at getting reads at this point, but it's like picking the prettiest model or...less clunky analogy).

[BrewerFan]

On 9/25/2023 at 4:25 PM, Michael Trzinski said:

My projection had Peguero being healthy. OTW, Megill prob gets the spot.

Megill throws 100+ with movement, a nasty CB, a 2.22 FIP and he's healthy. He's the exact type of player you want and need in the post-season.

I mean, ideally he'd throw left handed, but short of that, he's ideal for this pen. I trust him over Pegeuro right now. 

[Ro Mueller]

Let's beat the Cubs, which presents at least a few advantages:

• Pre-playoff joy, especially for the fans
• Positions Canha and Donaldson to face more lefties (against the Marlins), not relying on struggling Tellez to play as much
• Reduces likelihood of Winker making the playoff roster (ahead of Toro - who's a more capable runner and fielder, has a 41-game on-base streak, switch hits and has even hit a few homers) and me being annoyed about it

[bensheeps]

3 hours ago, damuelle said:

• Reduces likelihood of Winker making the playoff roster (ahead of Toro - who's a more capable runner and fielder, has a 41-game on-base streak, switch hits and has even hit a few homers) and me being annoyed about it

I understand the team doesn't like Toro's defensive ability (or lack thereof), but I have shaken my head repeatedly here at the end of the year that he isn't a better pinch hit option off the bench than some other guys we have kept.

[Michael Trzinski]

On 9/26/2023 at 5:56 PM, Team Canada said:

Which roster are you predicting exactly? The WC roster will definitely not look like that. If you're predicting beyond that, then maybe. But in no scenario do you have 5 starters.

This is for the WC series.

[Frisbee Slider]

No need for five starters in a three game series.