Power Bats

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, LouisEly said:

And how much should they invest in 1B/3B with Black and Wilken knocking on the door?  Those two have as much upside as anyone who they can realistically trade for. 

Maybe there's a team who needs a true CF and will swap Mitchell or Frelick for a RF with a bigger bat.  Maybe there's a team who needs a true SS and will swap Turang for a 2B with a bigger bat.  Those are the best opportunities that I see for offensive improvement.

Well, 17 million dollars over 5 years if Matt Chapman is agreeable, but that seems unlikely, so nowhere. I wouldn't make a significant investment in any position in free agency as I said.

On 10/5/2023 at 2:39 PM, BrewerFan said:

The Brewers are building for their farm system. That's...just what they're going to do. The people upset about their 140M payroll are yelling at the Moon. They don't have the financial resources to compete for top FAs. We're just starting to see the benefits of a LA scouting dept, hopefully that continues. That's how they improve offensively. 

We had the highest payroll we've had this year. We both know their limited in what they can do. So no Ohtani, no Chapman...as nice as he'd fit, and then you've got guys like Joc Peterson and guys who are normally players you take a flier on, not guys you build your off-season around as FA targets. 

On 10/5/2023 at 2:39 PM, BrewerFan said:

Matt Chapman is a good player. That's pretty much the only big difference maker in this class other than Ohtani and I'd guess the bidding for him will get a little silly.

 I'd be all for Chapman if his 'market value' was ~17M. But I suspect it'll be closer to 25 and 7 years? Maybe 8.

 

So I don't think they'll invest anywhere, BUT if they decide to, OF is the least likely. That's all I've said. Of all the area's of the team, OF is probably the most set moving forward. They have good young, cheap players who were highly regarded. LHed, RHed and elite defenders. 3B is hardly settled as there are obvious questions about Black playing there and I wouldn't say Wilken is quite on the doorstep, but sure. Unless you can get a real difference maker, I wouldn't invest in either of those positions this year either. 

 

If there happens to be a great trade in which Turang has some value and you get a big bat at 2B...sure. As it stands, he's coming off a .585 OPS at 2B.

The point was I wouldn't spend money and ADD an OFer. Feels like that's the one position you can...pretty safely rule out the Brewers using their resources to invest in.

There's also the fact that Black has gotten considerable time in the OF. I suspect if the Brewers didn't have 4 top 100 prospects+140M invested in the OF already, he'd still be playing out there. But they need help at 3B and 1B(or DH) more...which is why he's playing there. 

Obviously I can see them trading from their OFers, but who has value right now? Chourio obviously has significant value. He's also the core for the next chapter of Brewers baseball and feels like he's pretty much off the table.

Frelick- I guess it's possible, but again, he seems like he's exactly the type of player the Brewers have been trying to develop. An elite defender with elite bat to ball skills, speed and he's also a fan favorite in a very small sample size due to how he plays and the energy he provides. Similar to Adames...IMO.

Wiemer, Mitchell-You'd be selling low.

Taylor or Perkins-Maybe Taylor has some value, but I don't suspect it's much. Same with Perkins. 

Yelich-I'd be all for trading Yelich and I've said as much...but I don't think it's very likely. 

 

But there's two realistic directions the team goes. Keep Burnes, Woodruff and Adames, OR trade at least Burnes and realistically, you'd probably deal Willy as well(and I'd include Williams in that list as I think Uribe is the future). 

So playing that out, if you choose to run it back with Burnes, Woodruff and Adames, where are the resources to add payroll coming from? There is probably close to ~25M in payroll just via arbitration.

If you choose to trade Burnes, Adames and company, then it doesn't really make sense to invest, particularly in THIS Free Agent class as it looks like scraps right out of the gate and you're realistically not really going to contend next year, so the urgency to add makes less sense. 

 

Which is why I ended up with the Brewers are building from within. I think the smartest and most likely direction is the Brewers try and get as much as they can for their pitching. Probably hold onto Woodruff at this point and see where we are next year at the deadline. 

 

By ~2025 our lineup could very easily have a whole lot of young talent;

DH/1B-Yelich
OF-Chourio/Mitchell/Wiemer/Frelick/Perkins/Taylor
3B/1B-Wilken, Black, Boeve, Adams on the verge...and hopefully Pratt, Bitonti, Baez and some of the younger players have better give us a better idea of what we'll have.
SS/2B-Turang and maybe EBJ or Monasterio
C-Contreras, Quero

That's a lot of talent.

Looking for a big bat...obviously if there's one available and you can make a trade, that always makes sense, but if we're looking toward the future, not the past, we need pitching. THAT is what I'd invest in. 

 

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I really don't want this offseason to be focused on anything besides sorting out their longterm rotation options and accumulating potential impact talent with trades of Burnes, Adames, and even Devin Williams.  Use 2024 as a legit retooling/rebuild season and open up as many MLB opportunities for their young players to sort things out in the OF and at corner IF positions.  If Black can even be a hack defensively at 3rd, he should be their Opening Day 3B.  If Black fails there defensively and winds up as a DH candidate, there are other 3B prospects recently drafted who may be fast risers through the system, too.  Wilken should be viewed as a legit 1B option with his power, probably not ready right away next season but who knows?  If none of the young OFs are dealt as part of any trades, Wiemer should start 2024 in AAA with Mitchell and Frelick the other OF starters opposite Yelich - then if Chourio hits the ground running in AAA he's up and Yelich becomes your fulltime DH for the rest of his contract.  I think a healthy Mitchell over the course of a full MLB season will give you 25HR.

Once (if) Wiemer figures things out at the plate he's your 4th OF with pop and premium OF defense.  Plug Turang in at SS and let him mature at that spot on the cheap for a few seasons until sorting out if one of the other Brewers' SS working through the minors pushes him out of the organization or if that's a position to target via trade when the team is once again ready to contend.

Yes, the Brewers need more pop in their lineup - but they've got to give homegrown youngsters MLB time to develop and see if they can find that with who they've already got in house.  For a bridge, I like the idea of trying to keep Santana around, assuming (and hoping) guys like Canha and Tellez are gone.  Also, find a 2B with at least a little pop in free agency/trade (Jorge Polanco from the Twins on a 2-3 yr deal sounds pretty good and likely pretty affordable).

Specific to Devin W., they could get a haul for him with a trade this offseason but the Brewers may want to go into 2024 with him as their established closer - and if they aren't anywhere near contention they'd be able to get a haul for him at the July deadline, too.

There are a few things in here I don't totally agree with. I'm not sure Mitchell is a 25HR guy just yet...but THIS is exactly what should happen next year. 

The knee jerk reaction to watching the end of an era of an offensively incompetent team is completely understandable, but they've addressed that in the best way they can...by developing it. Chourio, Wilken(ACC All-Time HR leader), Wiemer...everyone we know about. They just need time to develop.

So next year is kinda like the Packers this year. You let the young guys play, see where you are after that, hopefully you've found important young pieces and THEN you go out and spend resources on addressing those positions more aggressively. 

Taking another Wisconsin Sports team, if the Brewers were in the same place as the Bucks, then it'd make sense to go out and overpay for a big bat like Alanso at 1st and try and fit those final pieces in there...but I just don't it like that in Baseball. 

 

I like the "Bites at the apple," idea...I'd just like to see some more teeth...

[CheezWizHed]

Interesting how cycles go... a few years back, we had too many power bats that struggled to score when we couldn't hit HRs.  Now we can hit 3 singles in an inning and still not score. 

Obviously, the high OBP+ high SLG hitters are rare and in high demand, so I have to assume draft them or trade for them.

IMO, high OBP guys come priority over high SLG, but is it better to be leaning one way or try to balance that?  Kind of a Frelick vs Adames "type of bat" discussion. 

[Brewcrew82]

28 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Interesting how cycles go... a few years back, we had too many power bats that struggled to score when we couldn't hit HRs.  Now we can hit 3 singles in an inning and still not score. 

Obviously, the high OBP+ high SLG hitters are rare and in high demand, so I have to assume draft them or trade for them.

IMO, high OBP guys come priority over high SLG, but is it better to be leaning one way or try to balance that?  Kind of a Frelick vs Adames "type of bat" discussion. 

Garver and Hoskins are FAs who would be the best of both worlds. 

Tellez's complete loss of power this year was a real killer. 

[CheezWizHed]

17 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Garver and Hoskins are FAs who would be the best of both worlds. 

Sure, but what are our realistic chances of getting either one?  Garver is a C, so we aren't going to pay $$ to replace Contreras for minimal upgrade (if he is an upgrade). What will Hoskins cost?  Can we outbid others?  The answer is normally no.  It could happen, but it just normally doesn't. 

Our history of acquiring high OBP and SLG hitters is draft or trade. In recent history, our best FA signings would be:

1) LoCain - mostly defense, high OBP, low SLG

2) Yasmani Grandal - a unique opportunity for a one year deal. High OBP/ med SLG

3) Aramis Ramirez - a end of career guy who was high SLG and OBP initially, but slid to just low-med SLG and very low OBP at the end.

That is pretty much it for the last 10 years. 

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

Sure, but what are our realistic chances of getting either one?  Garver is a C, so we aren't going to pay $$ to replace Contreras for minimal upgrade (if he is an upgrade). What will Hoskins cost?  Can we outbid others?  The answer is normally no.  It could happen, but it just normally doesn't. 

Our history of acquiring high OBP and SLG hitters is draft or trade. In recent history, our best FA signings would be:

1) LoCain - mostly defense, high OBP, low SLG

2) Yasmani Grandal - a unique opportunity for a one year deal. High OBP/ med SLG

3) Aramis Ramirez - a end of career guy who was high SLG and OBP initially, but slid to just low-med SLG and very low OBP at the end.

That is pretty much it for the last 10 years. 

Garver would be mostly a DH and catch occasionally when Contreras needs a day. In all likelihood someone else will pay Hoskins more, my guess is he gets something like Conforto got last year 2/32 with an opt out.  

The more I look at it we probably don't add a free agent power bat. In all likihood it would be a trade. As you reference we don't spend on free agents and anyone decent will likely get paid well this offseason.

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Sure, but what are our realistic chances of getting either one?  Garver is a C, so we aren't going to pay $$ to replace Contreras for minimal upgrade (if he is an upgrade). What will Hoskins cost?  Can we outbid others?  The answer is normally no.  It could happen, but it just normally doesn't. 

Our history of acquiring high OBP and SLG hitters is draft or trade. In recent history, our best FA signings would be:

1) LoCain - mostly defense, high OBP, low SLG

2) Yasmani Grandal - a unique opportunity for a one year deal. High OBP/ med SLG

3) Aramis Ramirez - a end of career guy who was high SLG and OBP initially, but slid to just low-med SLG and very low OBP at the end.

That is pretty much it for the last 10 years. 

Garver is more of a DH. He wouldn't replace Contreras at all. 

[Jake McKibbin]

He hasn't passed 300 at bats since 2019, so could be cheaper due to the risk

[LouisEly]

6 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Garver would be mostly a DH and catch occasionally when Contreras needs a day. In all likelihood someone else will pay Hoskins more, my guess is he gets something like Conforto got last year 2/32 with an opt out.  

The more I look at it we probably don't add a free agent power bat. In all likihood it would be a trade. As you reference we don't spend on free agents and anyone decent will likely get paid well this offseason.

Agreed.  With Yelich and Contreras on the roster, I would not expect the Brewers to significantly invest in someone who is primarily a DH.  Given the presence of Frelick, Mitchell, Chourio, Taylor (2nd half OPS of .854), and Wiemer (if he can get make the adjustments), I'd bet that Yelich becomes the primary DH sooner rather than later.

Best bets are to trade Mitchell or Frelick to a team who needs a true CF in exchange for a power bat at RF, or trade Adames or Turang to a team who needs a true SS in exchange for a power bat at 2B.  Sounds like Black is expected to be part of the plan for 2024, and Wilken might be ready in 2025, so I wouldn't expect a multi-year investment at 3B or 1B either.

[StearnsFTW]

On 10/6/2023 at 9:41 AM, jay87shot said:

I like Larnach, however looking the Twins, they are loaded in the IF Correa, Lewis, Kiriloff, Julien, Polanco, Miranda, Brooks Lee (AAA) and have questions in the OF Buxton (doesn't play much OF anymore), Wallner, Larnach, Castro (UTL), Gordon. I think that one of our OF for a IF would be win win.

Tyrone Taylor for Polanco 

Weimer/Mitchell for Miranda and a prospect

Frelick for Julien (don't like a ton)

Quero for Brooks Lee

 

I'd trade Frelick for Julien in an instant.

 

Twins never would though. 

 

Edit:  I see Brock already pointed this out.

[Brewcrew82]

32 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

I'd trade Frelick for Julien in an instant.

 

Twins never would though. 

 

Edit:  I see Brock already pointed this out.

I wouldn't.

Julien is older, a bad fielder, and has some serious K issues. 

[StearnsFTW]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I wouldn't.

Julien is older, a bad fielder, and has some serious K issues. 

He's 24.  And has a career .437 OBP in the minors.  And .381 this year in the majors

 

Fielding I don't know for sure, but he's a better hitter than Frelick by a lot right now.

 

I will freely admit that I don't think much of Frelick and never have though .

 

[Underachiever]

On 10/5/2023 at 2:39 PM, BrewerFan said:

We're just starting to see the benefits of a LA scouting dept, hopefully that continues. That's how they improve offensively. 

Just so I understand, when you typed "LA", you meant Latin America, correct? 

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, Underachiever said:

Just so I understand, when you typed "LA", you meant Latin America, correct? 

Correct.