Wellness Check

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Burnes, Adames….probable trades

Yelich- possible trade to get out of that contract with several cheap but talented options in OF coming up.

Woodruff- I don’t know… dropping big coin for a year with that shoulder? Maybe a non-tender?
Counsell- Odds, I think, is that he does not return for whatever the reason…..and there are many possible reasons..

Big changes… I think the Hot Stove started a few weeks ago. This is going to be a Hotter Stove. Both excited and extremely concerned. Still concerned Winker has been penciled in as our #2 hitter next year.

AFA Yelich is concerned, it would take an interested suitor in order to trade him. I think he'll either finish his contract here, or maybe get dealt closer to the tail-end of it.

I don't see how it would take a lot of money to re-up Woodruff now that he's damaged goods (if they want to). I've always felt re-signing him wasn't hopeless--certainly much more likely than Burnes. The injury makes it a little more possible (again, if they are confident enough in his chances at recovery).

When Winkers' two ABs ended in outs this week, was the loud booing from the crowd directed at Winker, or his manager?🤔

[ecjimg]

I’m not doing good. Lashing out on the Facebook posters babbling about irrelevant front row Amy.  
Used to go to 45-50 games a year- and watch most of the rest. I moved away and each year watch less and less. I wish I didn’t care so much about this stupid team 

[BrewerFan]

28 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

AFA Yelich is concerned, it would take an interested suitor in order to trade him. I think he'll either finish his contract here, or maybe get dealt closer to the tail-end of it.

I don't see how it would take a lot of money to re-up Woodruff now that he's damaged goods (if they want to). I've always felt re-signing him wasn't hopeless--certainly much more likely than Burnes. The injury makes it a little more possible (again, if they are confident enough in his chances at recovery).

When Winkers' two ABs ended in outs this week, was the loud booing from the crowd directed at Winker, or his manager?🤔

Look at the FA class. That's why I've been suggesting Yelich. He'd probably get close to what we owe him on the open market. I think you're very limited, but SF I think signs Ohtani and then...seem as likely to be interested as anyone. CC not coming back, perhaps he'd accept a trade. LAD, LAA...both seem less likely for opposite reasons. AZ had two good young rookies in the OF, Walker at 1B. So, I don't know, you'd be dealing with ~8 teams. I think you could find a suitor, but expecting anything back is unlikely and you would at least have keep the deferred money. 

So 5/110 if you eat the deferred money and the 6.5 buyout. I think that's certainly reasonable and...then it's finding a match he's happy with. That may not exist or he may be fine with it. 

[jay87shot]

I don't think I will ever get past Jesse Winker pinch hitting in both games. When Woody went down I had made peace that a run was going to be unlikely. Winker hitting twice in high leverage situations feels like someone gave up on this team and it is going to take some doing to get me to trust Counsil again. 

[rickh150]

20 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I don't think I will ever get past Jesse Winker pinch hitting in both games. When Woody went down I had made peace that a run was going to be unlikely. Winker hitting twice in high leverage situations feels like someone gave up on this team and it is going to take some doing to get me to trust Counsil again. 

Equivalent moves are Suppan and Marcum STARTING Game 4 and Game 6 when 99.9% of fans would say anyone else.

[Underachiever]

I haven't logged on since Wednesday. I am sure most of my thoughts have already been expressed. Just so many disappointments in the past week. That broken-bat double by Carroll broke me at the same time. Coming after a 93 mph floater for a home run, it was just too much. After not one, but two, 40-foot swinging bunts that, instead of being a double play, advance TWO runners to second and third. Just crap luck. I was in the stands on Tuesday, and did not fully see the Longoria play. Upon seeing it on tv, I just shook my head. 

The pitching and defense model is good, certainly for 162 games, but the margins are so small. As small as the distance between a finger and the knob on Michael Taylor's bat in 2019, or the big toe on Brice Turang not catching the HBP. But at some point you need to slug. Single, walk, single, didn't work. The team looked tight. Arizona didn't. Add in Corbin Marcum's struggles, and it was not to be.

I just hope that 53 is okay. I feel badly for him. He seems like a good guy, and I love watching him pitch. Whether it is for MKE or someone else, I want him to have the opportunity to pitch to his capabilities again. To get injured when he was that close to the kind of FA contract that he was looking at seems cruel.

I will be back, probably sooner rather than later. I will be in Arizona in March when Spring Training resumes. I am excited for the young guys to improve. Why can't the Brewers have the next Corbin Carroll? 

When the Brewers were bad, as they were for most of my life, there was a much more gradual denouement to the season that began as early as June some years. This ending is more like the ending of the Sopranos. Snap to black. Hope can suck the life out of you some times. 

This ended up being a lot longer than I thought it would when I started. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

49 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

I haven't logged on since Wednesday. I am sure most of my thoughts have already been expressed. Just so many disappointments in the past week. That broken-bat double by Carroll broke me at the same time. Coming after a 93 mph floater for a home run, it was just too much. After not one, but two, 40-foot swinging bunts that, instead of being a double play, advance TWO runners to second and third. Just crap luck. I was in the stands on Tuesday, and did not fully see the Longoria play. Upon seeing it on tv, I just shook my head. 

The pitching and defense model is good, certainly for 162 games, but the margins are so small. As small as the distance between a finger and the knob on Michael Taylor's bat in 2019, or the big toe on Brice Turang not catching the HBP. But at some point you need to slug. Single, walk, single, didn't work. The team looked tight. Arizona didn't. Add in Corbin Marcum's struggles, and it was not to be.

I just hope that 53 is okay. I feel badly for him. He seems like a good guy, and I love watching him pitch. Whether it is for MKE or someone else, I want him to have the opportunity to pitch to his capabilities again. To get injured when he was that close to the kind of FA contract that he was looking at seems cruel.

I will be back, probably sooner rather than later. I will be in Arizona in March when Spring Training resumes. I am excited for the young guys to improve. Why can't the Brewers have the next Corbin Carroll? 

When the Brewers were bad, as they were for most of my life, there was a much more gradual denouement to the season that began as early as June some years. This ending is more like the ending of the Sopranos. Snap to black. Hope can suck the life out of you some times. 

This ended up being a lot longer than I thought it would when I started. 

Nothing wrong with long. I loved reading this.

I echo your thoughts on Woody. I hope we get some encouraging news on his injury. Hopefully they shut it down quickly enough that he can avoid missing a ton of next season and can maintain his usual level of excellence. That seems pretty pie-in-the-sky, but if anyone can do it, it's him.

The bad HBP luck (Taylor's in 2019 not being conclusive, Turang's being conclusive) really hurt me too. Frustrating for the season to come down to that, but yeah, just the nature of October baseball.

I'll be following along all offseason. Lots of big decisions to be made. I think Milwaukee is going to be a great sports follow for the next couple years, with two small-market teams trying to win in almost diametrically opposed ways. Wouldn't it be cool if Ohtani just thought Giannis was the coolest guy ever or something :) ?

[gypcasino]

I said it in the game thread but I've now attended more road team playoff series clinching games here than the Brewers have total playoff series wins in their history. It's just not that fun anymore. 

[hawing]

Another thought, which is probably some kind of wafer-thin silver lining: 

If the Brewers' 2023 postseason had to be a crash-and-burn, thank the god/being of your choice that it wasn't against chc. 😬

[yourout]

4 minutes ago, hawing said:

Another thought, which is probably some kind of wafer-thin silver lining: 

If the Brewers' 2023 postseason had to be a crash-and-burn, thank the god/being of your choice that it wasn't against chc. 😬

And it was quick and not very close.

Losing in three games with a extra inning collapse would have been far more painful.

[Ro Mueller]

Yeah, this just hit me. It's Friday night on this side of the Atlantic and I'm about to close from work, looking forward to Brewers' baseball...

...oh my, there's none...

Deflating.

[HarryDoyle]

I'm doing just fine. The season went exactly the way I thought it would for the past three months. Division title and immediately bounced out of the playoffs.

[Jim French Stepstool]

15 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Look at the FA class. That's why I've been suggesting Yelich. He'd probably get close to what we owe him on the open market. I think you're very limited, but SF I think signs Ohtani and then...seem as likely to be interested as anyone. CC not coming back, perhaps he'd accept a trade. LAD, LAA...both seem less likely for opposite reasons. AZ had two good young rookies in the OF, Walker at 1B. So, I don't know, you'd be dealing with ~8 teams. I think you could find a suitor, but expecting anything back is unlikely and you would at least have keep the deferred money. 

So 5/110 if you eat the deferred money and the 6.5 buyout. I think that's certainly reasonable and...then it's finding a match he's happy with. That may not exist or he may be fine with it. 

It's certainly not impossible. But there are elements to it that might make teams take pause. By the back half of those five years, the back issues & throwing arm might really limit his versatility within a roster. He does a little more sitting than we'd like right now. Age 34-36 seasons......??

I agree, finding someone who can make it work financially isn't necessarily a problem. I'll maintain they'll be more likely to do it later, when a team might accept any potential limitations he may have because they won't have to give up much of anything talent-wise. If we find a suitor now, I just don't think they'll pull that trigger simply for salary relief (not that it wouldn't be a bad idea given the OF talent they possess).

[BrewerFan]

34 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

It's certainly not impossible. But there are elements to it that might make teams take pause. By the back half of those five years, the back issues & throwing arm might really limit his versatility within a roster. He does a little more sitting than we'd like right now. Age 34-36 seasons......??

I agree, finding someone who can make it work financially isn't necessarily a problem. I'll maintain they'll be more likely to do it later, when a team might accept any potential limitations he may have because they won't have to give up much of anything talent-wise. If we find a suitor now, I just don't think they'll pull that trigger simply for salary relief (not that it wouldn't be a bad idea given the OF talent they possess).

Well...of course there are reasons why a team wouldn't want him. I'm just looking at a team like the Giants. They seem more willing to take on the risk and older players. And if they go out and sign Ohtani, then they're going all in for next year. 

I think by the end of his deal, he's a Lo Cain type player, probably walks a bit more, but I think it's going to be ugly. So I think right now will be your best chance to move on. But I accept the chances that they could make a trade without eating more than the ~28M deferred and then the 6.5M buyout and just the 5/110M are probably slim and the chances that he'd agree are even lower. 

 

It's also really not something they HAVE to do. It's just something I'd do if I could. But he's hardly the problem. I think he was on base 6 of 10 times this series. A pretty stupid base running blunder, but he had a good year. 22M a year and then deferred money is a good deal for what we're getting right now and...maybe he'll age like Brantley where he's still got some really good years and he has some years he misses a lot of time. 

What's important is how good Chourio, Quero, Black...the rookies we've seen, how do they develop. The Yelich thing is a bit fantastical. 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

I'm doing just fine. The season went exactly the way I thought it would for the past three months. Division title and immediately bounced out of the playoffs.

Eh...yeah. I thought they had a chance...but I'm actually more fine with this loss than any other playoff loss by one of my teams. I've just kinda come to accept it. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Well...of course there are reasons why a team wouldn't want him. I'm just looking at a team like the Giants. They seem more willing to take on the risk and older players. And if they go out and sign Ohtani, then they're going all in for next year. 

I think by the end of his deal, he's a Lo Cain type player, probably walks a bit more, but I think it's going to be ugly. So I think right now will be your best chance to move on. But I accept the chances that they could make a trade without eating more than the ~28M deferred and then the 6.5M buyout and just the 5/110M are probably slim and the chances that he'd agree are even lower. 

 

It's also really not something they HAVE to do. It's just something I'd do if I could. But he's hardly the problem. I think he was on base 6 of 10 times this series. A pretty stupid base running blunder, but he had a good year. 22M a year and then deferred money is a good deal for what we're getting right now and...maybe he'll age like Brantley where he's still got some really good years and he has some years he misses a lot of time. 

What's important is how good Chourio, Quero, Black...the rookies we've seen, how do they develop. The Yelich thing is a bit fantastical. 

El Gigantes would be the leader in the clubhouse if they DO deal him, I think you're correct there. And the last couple sentences, for sure.

[wiguy94]

Yelich has 10/5. Why are people suggesting he get traded? He has a full no-trade clause and basically zero trade value. No reason to get rid of him.

[BrewerFan]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

Yelich has 10/5. Why are people suggesting he get traded? He has a full no-trade clause and basically zero trade value. No reason to get rid of him.

He's coming off a 3.6 WAR season, it's a unusually weak FA class and he had a NTC before hitting 10/5 anyway, so he'd always have to accept a trade.

I don't think it's true he has no trade value. If he was a FA, I think he'd probably get somewhere in the 5/110 range. If that's the case and you can move him, I'd move him. That's why it's being talked about. That contract is thee reason to get rid of him. 

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

He's coming off a 3.6 WAR season, it's a unusually weak FA class and he had a NTC before hitting 10/5 anyway, so he'd always have to accept a trade.

I don't think it's true he has no trade value. If he was a FA, I think he'd probably get somewhere in the 5/110 range. If that's the case and you can move him, I'd move him. That's why it's being talked about. That contract is thee reason to get rid of him. 

The contract is fine. There's zero reason to trade the face of the franchise and our second best player just to get off a contract. He's not going to get traded. People talk about it like it's actually a possibility and it's honestly just hilarious seeing that happen.

[BrewerFan]

4 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

The contract is fine. There's zero reason to trade the face of the franchise and our second best player just to get off a contract. 

There's zero reason? There's several reasons. The last 3 seasons, his ongoing back issues, the remaining years on his contract will be ages 32-36, the Brewers financial limitations...those are all obvious reasons. 

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

There's zero reason? There's several reasons. The last 3 seasons, his ongoing back issues, the remaining years on his contract will be ages 32-36, the Brewers financial limitations...those are all obvious reasons. 

Okay so with all these negatives the Brewers would have to eat money just to get rid of his contract then right? It's just a non-starter. The whole discussion is silly. The Brewers didn't trade Braun just like they won't trade Yelich.

[Jim French Stepstool]

10 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

There's zero reason? There's several reasons. The last 3 seasons, his ongoing back issues, the remaining years on his contract will be ages 32-36, the Brewers financial limitations...those are all obvious reasons. 

I think the emerging OF talent is arguably the biggest one, but as I said several posts ago, they'd need to find a suitable trade partner & at the end of the day It's more unlikely than likely. Wouldn't do it simply to jettison the contract, which means getting a sufficient amount of talent, which means it's probably a non-starter. Giants make the most sense, theoretically.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I think the emerging OF talent is arguably the biggest one, but as I said several posts ago, they'd need to find a suitable trade partner & at the end of the day It's more unlikely than likely. Wouldn't do it simply to jettison the contract, which means getting a sufficient amount of talent, which means it's probably a non-starter. Giants make the most sense, theoretically.

The Brewers have 4 good OF prospects. The likelihood all 4 hit is incredibly low and in the crazy occurrence it does happen then there's always moving Yelich to 1B/DH. Brewers have basically no long term money outside of Yelich. There's no need to get rid of his contract. Brewers had a horrible offense this year and people are talking about trading 1 of our 2 good bats?? Are we trying to get substantially worse?

[BrewerFan]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Okay so with all these negatives the Brewers would have to eat money just to get rid of his contract then right? It's just a non-starter. The whole discussion is silly. The Brewers didn't trade Braun just like they won't trade Yelich.

I don't know think it'd be a non-starter. I think it'd be a thin needle to thread and I said I don't think it's likely. You're saying there's ZERO reason to trade him in part because he's the face of the franchise.

There are players all the time that the Brewers wouldn't go after in Free Agency, but other teams will obviously.

Lets start out with IF he were a FA, what would he be likely to get? I think 5/110 is a pretty reasonable number given the lack of FA's out there.

Evan Longoria to the Giants is a perfect example. The Rays owed him 6/100 in 2017 and the Giants traded for him despite the fact that 3 of the previous 4 years he'd had pretty average years. 

They were both 32 years old the first year with the Giants and the previous 4 seasons, Longoria had a .767 OPS, 111 OPS+ Yelich has a .768 OPS. 112 OPS+.

So no, it's not a non-starter, it's a reason for the Brewers to want to move off of him. The Giants can take on far more risk than the Brewers can. 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, BrewerFan said:

I don't know think it'd be a non-starter. I think it'd be a thin needle to thread and I said I don't think it's likely. You're saying there's ZERO reason to trade him in part because he's the face of the franchise.

There are players all the time that the Brewers wouldn't go after in Free Agency, but other teams will obviously.

Lets start out with IF he were a FA, what would he be likely to get? I think 5/110 is a pretty reasonable number given the lack of FA's out there.

Evan Longoria to the Giants is a perfect example. The Rays owed him 6/100 in 2017 and the Giants traded for him despite the fact that 3 of the previous 4 years he'd had pretty average years. 

They were both 32 years old the first year with the Giants and the previous 4 seasons, Longoria had a .767 OPS, 111 OPS+ Yelich has a .768 OPS. 112 OPS+.

So no, it's not a non-starter, it's a reason for the Brewers to want to move off of him. The Giants can take on far more risk than the Brewers can. 

Look at the Brewers contracts over the next 5 years. We have literally ZERO need to get off Yelich's contract. None. Nada. Zilch. By the time our prospects get expensive in their final 2 years of Arb Yelich would be off the books. We aren't the Rays. We don't run bottom of the barrel payrolls. Just because they made a trade doesn't mean the Brewers will.