Olney: 'Unclear' Whether Brewers Will Trade Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames

[Matthew Trueblood]

According to ESPN insider Buster Olney and a rival executive who served as his source, the Brewers might prefer to wait and see with their top two trade chips. The idea is that Burnes, especially, might not have significantly lower value in July (if trading him still seems like a prudent course) than he has right now.

A rival talent evaluator says it's unclear whether the Brewers will trade Corbin Burnes and/or SS Willy Adames. If the Brewers keep Burnes into the 2024 season and try to compete, his trade value probably isn't going to be much lower in July than it is right now.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 27, 2023

That might be true of Burnes, because of the premium teams pay for starting pitching when a playoff race looms. Then again, by then, the Brewers might be in a playoff race themselves, at which point dealing Burnes would feel unsettlingly like the trade that sent Josh Hader to San Diego in 2022. Nor is the loss of a potential compensatory pick (value that evaporates if Burnes is still on the team come Opening Day) as negligible as Olney seems to imply.

With Adames, the gulf in likely value between now and July is pretty wide. He could have such a resurgent 2024 that he's an elite target by then, but even in that case, his value would be limited by the fact that only teams in need of a shortstop (or infielder, at least) would have much interest. Rental position players just don't fetch nearly what short-term pitchers can at the trade deadline.

Incorporating Adames into this report reads mostly as a means to juice it for greater attention. It still feels unlikely that the Brewers would hold onto both of these guys, except in the case that they decide to make other, proactive additions and push hard for the playoffs in a go-for-it final season with both players in the fold. This report is a good reminder, though, that the direction of the offseason is far from being set in concrete at this early stage.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

I just cannot see how Burnes’s value is the same in July once you factor in the loss of a compensatory pick. 

[wallus]

You'd think Woody's injury would make them not want to risk that asset. I still expect Burnes to be moved before the season. Adames might not be as he isn't  as much of a premium talent.

[wibadgers23]

6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I just cannot see how Burnes’s value is the same in July once you factor in the loss of a compensatory pick. 

That and it complicates things big time if the Brewers are even remotely in a playoff race. Then you have another Hader situation on your hands. And I don’t even want to think about a major injury that would eliminate any trade value at all.

[Matthew Trueblood]

4 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

That and it complicates things big time if the Brewers are even remotely in a playoff race. Then you have another Hader situation on your hands. And I don’t even want to think about a major injury that would eliminate any trade value at all.

No question, that risk is real. But I wonder if we're all slightly underestimating the extent to which Burnes's value is dented a bit at the moment by his inconsistency in 2023. If he has a 2021ish start to 2024, he could be worth more even without the potential for a pick coming back than he is right now with one.

[shanedog19]

35 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

No question, that risk is real. But I wonder if we're all slightly underestimating the extent to which Burnes's value is dented a bit at the moment by his inconsistency in 2023. If he has a 2021ish start to 2024, he could be worth more even without the potential for a pick coming back than he is right now with one.

I think you are going to be surprised at how large Burnes' trade value is when he's actually traded. The return will be massive.

[SF70]

This isn’t that hard.

Burnes and Adames will only be traded if the team receives an offer that crushes the pick & ‘24 Burnes/Adames performance, including a big-league player that helps the team win in ‘24.

This team has made it abundantly clear they have zero interest in a rebuild, which makes sense with the infrastructure, including farm system that they currently enjoy. 

They get a “godfather” deal or they hold  and go win the central with them.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

46 minutes ago, wallus said:

You'd think Woody's injury would make them not want to risk that asset. I still expect Burnes to be moved before the season. Adames might not be as he isn't  as much of a premium talent.

I think you might be underestimating the number of MLB SS who provide premium defense and are capable of putting up elite offensive numbers. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I think you might be underestimating the number of MLB SS who provide premium defense and are capable of putting up elite offensive numbers. 

Never mind that the chance of an offensive rebound is pretty significant.

[StearnsFTW]

I will be pretty disappointed if they don't trade both to be honest.

[alwz4gbp]

I will be as well StearnsFTW.   Adames, Burnes and even  D Williams would bring back a massive haul of premium talent.  I just don't see how a small market team can pass that up.  Get all loaded up with AAA studs and some ready for MLB talent, couple that with the youngins' they have now and you've got a super core for years to come.  Small market teams can't pass up a quick reset like that.  

[wildcat2237]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I just cannot see how Burnes’s value is the same in July once you factor in the loss of a compensatory pick. 

Correct, and you are not even taking into consideration the injury risk. I truly believe this is all smoke signals to get teams to pony up. 

I doubt the Burnes trade happens until Yamamoto signs. The losers of the Yamamoto sweepstakes will be interested. 

 

[wildcat2237]

18 minutes ago, alwz4gbp said:

I will be as well StearnsFTW.   Adames, Burnes and even  D Williams would bring back a massive haul of premium talent.  I just don't see how a small market team can pass that up.  Get all loaded up with AAA studs and some ready for MLB talent, couple that with the youngins' they have now and you've got a super core for years to come.  Small market teams can't pass up a quick reset like that.  

I agree with every word of this post. 

No way Arnold is dumb enough to make the Prince Fielder mistake. That lone mistake set the franchise back 3 years. 

Trade Burnes/Adames/Williams now. Step back in 2024 (not full on rebuild). Then be ready to compete big in 2025/2026. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

21 minutes ago, alwz4gbp said:

I will be as well StearnsFTW.   Adames, Burnes and even  D Williams would bring back a massive haul of premium talent.  I just don't see how a small market team can pass that up.  Get all loaded up with AAA studs and some ready for MLB talent, couple that with the youngins' they have now and you've got a super core for years to come.  Small market teams can't pass up a quick reset like that.  

I'm loathe to advocate for rebuilds. I've seen enough of them sputter and fail to realize they're not worth 3+ years of my life waiting for a time that might not come.

But in the case of the 2024 Brewers, I think there's a real chance to rebuild on the fly and remain a marginal contender while simultaneously setting up the team for real contention in 2025 and beyond.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, wildcat2237 said:

Correct, and you are not even taking into consideration the injury risk. I truly believe this is all smoke signals to get team to pony up. 

I doubt the Burnes trade happens until Yamamoto signs. The losers of the Yamamoto sweepstakes will be interested. 

This is generally my feeling as well.

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I just cannot see how Burnes’s value is the same in July once you factor in the loss of a compensatory pick. 

Because demand will be higher at the deadline due to a smaller available pool of SP. It's a pretty strong SP FA class and there are guys like Glasnow, Cease, Bieber who could all be traded this offseason as well. Teams might not have the incentive to splurge on a Burnes trade offer when cheaper options are available or FA options are available.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

Because demand will be higher at the deadline due to a smaller available pool of SP. It's a pretty strong SP FA class and there are guys like Glasnow, Cease, Bieber who could all be traded this offseason as well. Teams might not have the incentive to splurge on a Burnes trade offer when cheaper options are available or FA options are available.

That's definitely possible, I just think it's unlikely. I think there will be teams left without the starting pitching they want and trading for Burnes with the confidence they'll get a comp pick in ten months lowers the barrier to entry by a lot.

[wallus]

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I think you might be underestimating the number of MLB SS who provide premium defense and are capable of putting up elite offensive numbers. 

I think you are overestimating his offense by using the word elite.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3 minutes ago, wallus said:

I think you are overestimating his offense by using the word elite.

Not to parse words ... but my exact phrasing was "capable of putting up elite offensive numbers". Which he has proven he can do. He was certainly not elite last year. 

[wallus]

Just now, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Not to parse words ... but my exact phrasing was "capable of putting up elite offensive numbers". Which he has proven he can do. He was certainly not elite last year. 

I would love to see the stats of the season that he was an elite offensive performer at shortstop. Unless you are going to tell me elite doesn't mean top 3 and then I would question that heavily.

[nate82]

Cease looks like he will be traded first either to the Dodgers or Braves.  If the Dodgers get Cease I think they will then turn their attention to Adames.

That leaves the Braves with Glasnow, Bieber or Burnes as an option.  I don’t think they will go with Glasnow as that may put their payroll above the first limit.  I don’t see the Rays eating any of that salary.  So Bieber and Burnes would be option A and B after Cease.

The Braves are not the best team to be trading with as they don’t have all that much in terms of prospects.

[TURBO]

I wouldn't be so sure about that.  If the Dodgers get Cease, they may come after Burnes too...

[TURBO]

I just hope the Dodgers don't give up any of the pieces we will want from them for Cease.

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

Cease looks like he will be traded first either to the Dodgers or Braves.  If the Dodgers get Cease I think they will then turn their attention to Adames.

That leaves the Braves with Glasnow, Bieber or Burnes as an option.  I don’t think they will go with Glasnow as that may put their payroll above the first limit.  I don’t see the Rays eating any of that salary.  So Bieber and Burnes would be option A and B after Cease.

The Braves are not the best team to be trading with as they don’t have all that much in terms of prospects.

The Braves have some really nice pitching prospects. I’d take multiple of AJSS, Waldrep, Murphy. Ritchie.

[Playing Catch]

What is the "value" attached to trying to win the division? We all like to talk about maximizing "value," (myself included), but the whole point of this exercise is that the Brewers win a World Series.

Having Corbin Burnes and Wily Adames and Devin Williams on the roster MUST improve the chances of said outcome, no?

Can one quantify the value of a winning season?

Perhaps THAT is the part of the equation we have a hard time with.