2024 Brewers Offense

[wibadgers23]

With Burnes and Adames coming off the books next year, that will free up quite a bit of money and I expect payroll to be extremely low in 2025. So if we sign someone like Hoskins to a multi-year deal, then really it’s just this year that we’d have to be concerned with payroll. Going forward, we should be just fine.

[monty57]

8 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I'm not optimistic that Hoskins will happen (just too many teams are interested, which makes the odds low), but I think it's the splashiest move that is reasonably capable of happening still too (outside of some sort of trade acquisition).

$16M isn't unheard of with this team and ownership:

• Yelich extension averages close to $24M/yr over 9 years
• Braun extension averaged $21M/yr over 5 years
• Cain contract was signed for an average of $16M/yr over 5 years
• Grandal was 1 yr at $18.25M

 

I look at it as the money they won't be paying Burnes after he's traded. 

Other than Yelich, they won't have any big salaries on their team for the next few seasons with all of the pre-arby guys, so they could fit his contract in for something like the 2 yr/$36M MLBtr predicted. Again, this is just a prediction by a reputable site. They may be wrong, but those saying that there's no way he'll sign for that... is there any source stating that, or is it your own opinion? MLBtr has been a pretty good source for this stuff for years.

If they're anywhere close to correct, the Brewers should be able to fit this in, and in my opinion he'd be a great addition to our current roster. If the market heats up and his price tag skyrockets, then the Brewers would be out. I don't see how a dead market is a sign that there's huge demand pushing up prices. The players are sitting there unsigned, that could be because teams aren't willing to spend much this offseason beyond the mega-contracts to superstars. 

We'll see, but I sure wouldn't take anything that's happened so far as a clear sign that prices are going way up for non-superstar players.

[monty57]

11 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

For those who want Hoskins, is there a number at which you say, "OK, I'm out?" The 2/36 number, I believe, is going to be low, because I think someone would have signed him at that already. As mentioned, I believe that he is looking for more years. If someone signs him for 4/80, would you say Mark A is cheap? Given that we have no idea what the Brewers nor Hoskins are thinking, what's your number? I believe that someone is going to blink and give Hoskins way more than 2/36, whether in years, dollars, or both. 

My number wouldn't be much higher than the 2/$36. He's not some Godsend, he's just a guy who I think would fit in nicely to our roster. $18M/year for 2 years should fit into the Brewers' budget even if they're cutting back this year and next.

My question is, why do you believe that MLBtr is so badly mistaken in this situation? What do you think they're missing that they put out a suggested contract so far off that if they were close to correct he'd already have already signed?

It's just as likely that all the teams who have been rumored to have interest are seriously lowballing him due to his injury. Maybe if someone comes near 2/$36, he'll jump at the offer. 

All we have now is a site's prediction and our own opinions. I don't know what's going on, and I know that my opinion in the matter is worthless. I'm just hoping the site is close to right and the Brewers are able to sign him. Until he signs, I'll keep on hoping.

[tmwiese55]

16 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

For those who want Hoskins, is there a number at which you say, "OK, I'm out?" The 2/36 number, I believe, is going to be low, because I think someone would have signed him at that already. As mentioned, I believe that he is looking for more years. If someone signs him for 4/80, would you say Mark A is cheap? Given that we have no idea what the Brewers nor Hoskins are thinking, what's your number? I believe that someone is going to blink and give Hoskins way more than 2/36, whether in years, dollars, or both. 

Assume Burnes/Williams are here this year so 'going for it', and you don't have negative vibes on Burnes attitude.    A 31 year old coming off a torn ACL and missed a full year.  Sure it is what is making  him possible for MKE but it is still not ideal.    Personally I probably wanna quit at the 2/36-40 area. 

But I agree with you that won't get it done.  So considering the 'go for it a bit mentality, the money freed up with no Wood and the 8 mil they've been spending on vet DH types, along with what others pointed out that after Burnes is gone there is no big commitments. So I could probably grit my teeth and add the 3rd year in comparable years amounts.  I would be very skeptical on that deal and do think it ends up bad, but I get the idea of trying to do something in this last year of going for it.   Heck, if it helped get the deal done I'd probably figure out some kind of opt out stuff, could be a win if we get a good year or two from him for fair value. He wins by getting out and locking in a longer term deal elsewhere and we avoid having to pay out crap years as he ages.  Maybe that could keep us from having to give the 3rd or 4th year if we give opt out after 1 year. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

I look at it as the money they won't be paying Burnes after he's traded. 

If the Brewers are trading away their best starter for 2024, they shouldn't be turning around and paying a similar amount of money to a free agent 1B on a relatively short term contract - because in trading away their best pitcher they're signaling they aren't planning to contend next season.

Assuming Burnes and Williams are back, one other option the Brewers could do is trade Adames and then pool that payroll savings of him + Woodruff into a corner IF/DH bat, while still keeping Burnes as your rotation anchor for one more season.  Slide Turang over to SS and then sort out a 2B platoon with Dunn and Capra, maybe even Black unless they want to keep him at 3rd?

I just think Hoskins is going to get significantly more than what has been speculated so far.

• 
   

[brewcrewdue80]

2024 offense.

Frelick OF. 

Yelich DH

Chourio-OF

Contreras-C

Adames-SS

1b(fa sign?) Black?

Or

Mitchell/Wiemer OF

3b(Monasterio/Black?)

2b- Turang

 

C-backup

Util-backup

OF-Perkins?

 

There's the trade of Burnes or Adames idea who's return can shed light on offense setup.  At this moment I only have 1B missing. 

When and where is Black's position and lineup position put in to it?  

Hoskins on a 2yr deal or even 3. You can always consider tradeable after 2024/deadline this season if the Burnes-Adames moves are made in season.  Santana will give you relief for a 1b defender for 2024.  How's Hoskins ability? Seems hit or miss.

Wish Black had more 1b defense reps to know if he'd have a future there. He's your polarizing guy in your roster construction. 1b-set. Makes 3b a player tbd.  3b-set. Makes 1b a tbd.  2b/util?  I dunno. We traded Adames in that scenario or suffered ST injuries.

 

 

 

[Playing Catch]

20 hours ago, Underachiever said:

For those who want Hoskins, is there a number at which you say, "OK, I'm out?" The 2/36 number, I believe, is going to be low, because I think someone would have signed him at that already. As mentioned, I believe that he is looking for more years. If someone signs him for 4/80, would you say Mark A is cheap? Given that we have no idea what the Brewers nor Hoskins are thinking, what's your number? I believe that someone is going to blink and give Hoskins way more than 2/36, whether in years, dollars, or both. 

I agree with this. I have this feeling like some team will give him a four year deal with an opt-out.

[monty57]

On 1/5/2024 at 4:06 PM, Fear The Chorizo said:

I look at it as the money they won't be paying Burnes after he's traded. 

If the Brewers are trading away their best starter for 2024, they shouldn't be turning around and paying a similar amount of money to a free agent 1B on a relatively short term contract - because in trading away their best pitcher they're signaling they aren't planning to contend next season.

Assuming Burnes and Williams are back, one other option the Brewers could do is trade Adames and then pool that payroll savings of him + Woodruff into a corner IF/DH bat, while still keeping Burnes as your rotation anchor for one more season.  Slide Turang over to SS and then sort out a 2B platoon with Dunn and Capra, maybe even Black unless they want to keep him at 3rd?

I just think Hoskins is going to get significantly more than what has been speculated so far.

• 
   

I don't think that's necessarily true. Trading Burnes makes sense because the value he can bring back will be significantly higher than the value of keeping him for one more year. 

Assuming he's traded, we will get player(s) back from the trade. I would guess that they'll target a trade based around a Top 20ish prospect who is MLB ready and on the roster opening day. They will then have a decent chunk of money to add some additional talent.

With what we have + the Top 20ish prospect from the Burnes trade + Hoskins, we can still be in contention this year while we continue to add more prospects onto the MLB team. We lose something in the drop from Burnes' 2024 production to the production from the Top 20 pitcher we get back, but we make that up by using the money to upgrade elsewhere (1B). Then we have the Top 20 pitcher for five more years while the team that traded for Burnes loses him after one year, which is the big reason we should make the trade.

Hoskins and Burnes are only making similar money this year because Burnes is going to be seriously underpaid for one more year before free agency. He's a 10-year/$300+M guy after that, which is why teams want to trade for him. Hoskins is a nice bat who may fit in the Brewers' payroll because they don't have many other players making much money for the two years or so that he would be signed.

Trading a Cy Young-caliber pitcher will hurt. Of course it will. But, he's only one player, and we can still compete without him. But to do so, we'll need to get someone back in trade and use the money saved to bolster the roster. They aren't just going to trade him and then say "well, we give up, let's play for 2027." They'll still have a good core to build around. This is just how baseball in small markets needs to be played... field a good player as long as he has team control and trade him before losing him to free agency. Maintain a path where you always have good young players on the roster and on the farm. Free agency is for one- or two-year stopgaps to fill holes, which is what Hoskins would be.

This isn't an exact science, and things could go wrong. If they do, then Hoskins (and Williams, and maybe others) could be flipped at the deadline and we use the year to give experience to our youngsters, and build from that next offseason. 

Note that this could also apply to someone like Soler or Martinez. I just think Hoskins is the best fit because the Brewers could use a 1B upgrade and the others are pretty much DH-only guys. Any of them would bolster our offense, which could use a big bat in the middle of the order.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, monty57 said:

I don't think that's necessarily true. Trading Burnes makes sense because the value he can bring back will be significantly higher than the value of keeping him for one more year. 

Assuming he's traded, we will get player(s) back from the trade. I would guess that they'll target a trade based around a Top 20ish prospect who is MLB ready and on the roster opening day. They will then have a decent chunk of money to add some additional talent.

With what we have + the Top 20ish prospect from the Burnes trade + Hoskins, we can still be in contention this year while we continue to add more prospects onto the MLB team. We lose something in the drop from Burnes' 2024 production to the production from the Top 20 pitcher we get back, but we make that up by using the money to upgrade elsewhere (1B). Then we have the Top 20 pitcher for five more years while the team that traded for Burnes loses him after one year, which is the big reason we should make the trade.

Hoskins and Burnes are only making similar money this year because Burnes is going to be seriously underpaid for one more year before free agency. He's a 10-year/$300+M guy after that, which is why teams want to trade for him. Hoskins is a nice bat who may fit in the Brewers' payroll because they don't have many other players making much money for the two years or so that he would be signed.

Trading a Cy Young-caliber pitcher will hurt. Of course it will. But, he's only one player, and we can still compete without him. But to do so, we'll need to get someone back in trade and use the money saved to bolster the roster. They aren't just going to trade him and then say "well, we give up, let's play for 2027." They'll still have a good core to build around. This is just how baseball in small markets needs to be played... field a good player as long as he has team control and trade him before losing him to free agency. Maintain a path where you always have good young players on the roster and on the farm. Free agency is for one- or two-year stopgaps to fill holes, which is what Hoskins would be.

This isn't an exact science, and things could go wrong. If they do, then Hoskins (and Williams, and maybe others) could be flipped at the deadline and we use the year to give experience to our youngsters, and build from that next offseason. 

Note that this could also apply to someone like Soler or Martinez. I just think Hoskins is the best fit because the Brewers could use a 1B upgrade and the others are pretty much DH-only guys. Any of them would bolster our offense, which could use a big bat in the middle of the order.

 

I agree with pretty much all of this - but I guess it doesn't matter at all if Burnes isn't dealt.  The way this offseason has progressed so far I'd actually be surprised if Burnes is traded before Opening Day.  They're the clear favorite in this division with him in the rotation as it stands now.  With the current Brewers' payroll, I'd expect them to add in free agency at corner IF or DH (or even both) even if they keep Burnes and whatever his salary will be - I just doubt that all happens and Hoskins is their target due to what I think he'll wind up getting from some large market team.

I've long thought that any Brewers trade of Burnes would heat up after the Jan 12th arbitration figure deadline to see if 1) Burnes and the Brewers actually agree to a 2024 salary without having to go to a hearing and there's cost certainty for the season, or more likely 2) Teams see what Burnes' camp is asking in arbitration compared to the Brewers.  One question I had with that, say that Burnes and the Brewers don't come to terms before the deadline - if he is traded after the deadline but before his hearing, does the team who traded for him have to make the Brewers' case for their # at the hearing?  There's no way Burnes would sign an extension before the season with Boras as a client.

Sorry for sidetracking a thread about the Brewers' offense with this!

[TrackCoach]

Armchair general managing aside I would be looking at two players one in high demand (Hoskins) and one that may be looking for a one year prove it contract.  I would be targeting Rhys Hoskins (2 years  28 milliion) for first and Matt Chapman (one year 6 million) for third.  With these two in the fold we keep Burns and Adames and go for it with little risk to the all-star break.  We would have two veteran leaders for our young guys and a good mix of high ceiling possibilities with our young guys.  There would also be flexibility for the DH role.  Run with it until the all-star break and see where you are at.  Worst case scenario we would have a wealth of trade chips to start building for 2025.  All this being said I know that free agency is a two-way street and we have no way of knowing what Rhys and Matt are thinking they want to do.

The center of this line up looks as good as it has for many years and with some improvement and expectation meeting by some of the young guys the whole lineup could be on pitchers fear.

2024 Offense

Frelick OF

Chapman 3b

Yelich OF

Contreras-C

Hoskins 1b

Chourio-OF

Mitchell/Wiemer OF

2b- Turang

DH-Combination of Yelich, Hoskins, Chourio, Black, Monasterio, whoever needs a day.

 

 

[brewerfan82]

I realllly wish we could get those guys at those prices. Unfortunately, I think you are underestimating what it's going to take to get them, especially Chapman. MLB Trade Rumors (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html - has Hoskins at 2 yrs/$36M and Chapman at 6 yrs/$150M) and FanGraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker - has Hoskins at 1 yr/$14M and Chapman at 4 yrs/$80M) are good places to get an idea of what guys might be going for.

I don't think Chapman's getting anything near 6 yrs/$150M, but he's likely still out of our range. Hoskins is a more realistic get, but I also think the estimates on him are likely on the low end of what he may end up getting. I like the thought though!

[sveumrules]

Chapman at 4/80 on FanGraphs was from their crowd sourcing. Ben Clemens had him at 5/120 in their Top 50 article.

Combine that with the 6/150 MLBTR prediction and the range is pretty wild. Probably the largest of any FA this winter.

If he would sign for 4/80 I could see the Brewers being interested given their run prevention mindset and the likelihood that average is probably the ceiling for Black and Wilken’s 3B defense.

Problem is his glove has fallen off to the tune of +78 DRS and +48 OAA over his first 4,955 innings at 3B compared to +14 DRS and +5 OAA over his last 2,558 innings.

His bat also cratered at 205/298/361 (84 wRC+) from May 1st onward last year, though his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit percent were all elite on his StatCast page.

[TURBO]

I don't want Chapman on any deal more than 2 years, not with Wilken in the wings.

No way we get Hoskins for 2 years at 28 million.  I am thinking if he wants to go 2 years, it will be 36 million.  I'm not even against paying him that to be honest.  We have to spend money someplace, and 1B seems like an obvious need.  2 years isn't much of a commitment either.

[wibadgers23]

38 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I don't want Chapman on any deal more than 2 years, not with Wilken in the wings.

No way we get Hoskins for 2 years at 28 million.  I am thinking if he wants to go 2 years, it will be 36 million.  I'm not even against paying him that to be honest.  We have to spend money someplace, and 1B seems like an obvious need.  2 years isn't much of a commitment either.

Agree on Hoskins. In 2025 when Burnes and Adames are off the books, that $18 million won’t break the bank. Might stretch the budget a bit this year but certainly not in 2025.

[tmwiese55]

In such a scenario if Hoskins has played well and we're not really contenders in '25 you can also trade him at that deadline. You save some millions and get at least a couple prospects back 

[Brewcrew82]

Updated Potential Lineup, with Steamer projections :

1. Frelick LF (projected 103 wRC+)

2. Contreras C (projected 120 wRC+)

3. Yelich DH (projected 116 wRC+)

4. Hoskins 1B (projected 115 wRC+)

5. Adames SS (projected 103 wRC+)

6. Black 3B (projected 104 wRC+)

7. Chourio CF (projected 93 wRC+)

8. Mitchell/Wiemer RF (GM career 117 wRC+ vs RHP; JW career 115 wRC+ vs. LHP)

9. Turang/Monasterio 2B (BT projected 88 wRC+; AM career 118 wRC+ vs. LHP)

That's a good lineup with the potential to be elite if Chourio has a rookie season like Carroll, Julio, Tatis, Acuna, etc....

 

[sveumrules]

Spend Burnes money on a bat and could run out something like this…

1. Frelick RF (projected 103 wRC+)

2. Contreras C (projected 120 wRC+)

3. Yelich LF (projected 116 wRC+)

4. Hoskins 1B (projected 115 wRC+) 

5. Soler (119) / Belt (106) / JDM (107)

6. Adames SS (projected 103 wRC+)

7. Black 3B (projected 104 wRC+)

8. Ortiz 2B (projected 100 wRC+)

9. Chourio CF (projected 93 wRC+)

That’d be a pretty fun lineup.

[MVP2110]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Spend Burnes money on a bat and could run out something like this…

1. Frelick RF (projected 103 wRC+)

2. Contreras C (projected 120 wRC+)

3. Yelich LF (projected 116 wRC+)

4. Hoskins 1B (projected 115 wRC+) 

5. Soler (119) / Belt (106) / JDM (107)

6. Adames SS (projected 103 wRC+)

7. Black 3B (projected 104 wRC+)

8. Ortiz 2B (projected 100 wRC+)

9. Chourio CF (projected 93 wRC+)

That’d be a pretty fun lineup.

Is a Mitchell/Wiemer platoon that much different projection wise then what you list at the #5 spot? Plus you get the added defense 

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

Is a Mitchell/Wiemer platoon that much different projection wise then what you list at the #5 spot? Plus you get the added defense 

I'd be fine with the offense as is, and running more of Yelich at DH with some combo of Mitchell/Wiemer getting the majority of the time at the other OF spot.

Overall value wise it's probably close to a wash with a veteran DH providing a little more certainty and lineup depth versus Mitchell/Wiemer having a wider range of potential outcomes. 

[wallus]

In around 300 abs, Yelich has hit very poorly when being a DH. I also believe he mentioned he wasn't comfortable with it either. I think he will ultimately be a full timer there but I would be surprised if it is this season.

Career: 80 wRC+ as DH versus 124 wRC+ as LF

With as many young guys as we have, I would want a vet that has proven can hit as a DH. 

Soler (apparently I am trying to will this into existence) as DH 2021-2023:

2021: 113 wRC+

2022: 131 wRC+

2023: 122 wRC+

[DR28]

If we dont add someone like Solar or JD Martinez, I still feel pretty good about our lineup.

C - Contreras

1B - Hoskins

2B - Ortiz (Turang sucks, he belongs in AAA)

SS - Adames

3B - Black

LF - Yelich

CF - Chourio

RF - Mitchell/Wiemer platoon

Really only thing missing is DH.... Soler, Martinez or Belt would look damn nice here!

[brewerfan82]

7 minutes ago, DR28 said:

If we dont add someone like Solar or JD Martinez, I still feel pretty good about our lineup.

C - Contreras

1B - Hoskins

2B - Ortiz (Turang sucks, he belongs in AAA)

SS - Adames

3B - Black

LF - Yelich

CF - Chourio

RF - Mitchell/Wiemer platoon

Really only thing missing is DH.... Soler, Martinez or Belt would look damn nice here!

[MVP2110]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

If we dont add someone like Solar or JD Martinez, I still feel pretty good about our lineup.

C - Contreras

1B - Hoskins

2B - Ortiz (Turang sucks, he belongs in AAA)

SS - Adames

3B - Black

LF - Yelich

CF - Chourio

RF - Mitchell/Wiemer platoon

Really only thing missing is DH.... Soler, Martinez or Belt would look damn nice here!

You're forgetting Frelick

[wibadgers23]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

If we dont add someone like Solar or JD Martinez, I still feel pretty good about our lineup.

C - Contreras

1B - Hoskins

2B - Ortiz (Turang sucks, he belongs in AAA)

SS - Adames

3B - Black

LF - Yelich

CF - Chourio

RF - Mitchell/Wiemer platoon

Really only thing missing is DH.... Soler, Martinez or Belt would look damn nice here!

Soler would be awesome but I’d also be fine with Yelich at DH and an outfield of Frelick, Chourio and Mitchell.

[DR28]

1 hour ago, brewerfan82 said:

 

42 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

You're forgetting Frelick

Frelick can be dealt for pitching.