Packers 2024 Off-Season Thread

[Fear The Chorizo]

51 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Couldn't you argue that RB is always a great FA investment?

Maybe I'm overthinking this. But...FA running backs = cheap. (Relative to other positions).

So if you invest in running backs in free agency, that keeps your picks free for positions that tend to be a little more pricey in FA...WRs, pass edge rushers, offensive line....which leaves you in a better position to take advantage of rookie contracts. 

Until recently, premier RBs who get to free agency tend to be older guys who have worn out their welcome from their initial team, who likely gave them at least one bigtime extension through what is their prime.  Basically, you're getting damaged/worn out goods.  This has definitely been shifting along with RBs in general falling lower in the draft.

I do agree with you that you can typically find a solid FA running back option without having to break the bank each year - I guess this offseason more than others it seems like there are quite a few FA RBs I wouldn't mind giving multi-year contracts to based on where they're at in their careers, many of which are only going to be available now because RB contract values have sort of cratered faster than the franchise tag for RBs has dropped.  Teams see that and are reluctant to tag RBs and rather see them walk and then sign a different and comparable FA for half the cost of that RB tag.  

[GAME05]

Even with trackers in the ball to tell yardage we'd have the same kind of arguments over when a player was actually down on contact.

[young guns]

5 hours ago, GAME05 said:

Even with trackers in the ball to tell yardage we'd have the same kind of arguments over when a player was actually down on contact.

Well right now the argument is when is the runner down and where is the ball, so eliminating what is really the more complicated aspect of that conversation would be a big help.  Most of the time you can at least see a body part being down, but having no idea where the ball.

[BrewerFan]

On 2/29/2024 at 11:20 PM, adambr2 said:

Couldn't you argue that RB is always a great FA investment?

Maybe I'm overthinking this. But...FA running backs = cheap. (Relative to other positions).

So if you invest in running backs in free agency, that keeps your picks free for positions that tend to be a little more pricey in FA...WRs, pass edge rushers, offensive line....which leaves you in a better position to take advantage of rookie contracts. 

I think you want to do both...BUT this year is a unique year in which there are so many proven RBs who are still just 24-26. That's why I'm saying Antonio Gibson. Fits this offense like a glove as the motion man. Could easily have him and Jones on the field at the same time, he's a slasher. He can lineup at WR. And because Washington turned the RB job over to Robinson, Gibson is coming off a couple mediocre type years. 

I think he comes to GB and rushes for 500 yards, up to 900 if Jones misses time and he'll give you 35 catches and 400 yards out of the backfield.

He can handle a lot of the jet sweeps, or fake jet sweeps and then hit him on the wheel route...and he can block.

BUT, I don't think you ignore RB, I just think it allows you to wait for a RB. If Bucky Irvin if there at 126, then it's an easy call. HR speed, could be a Mossert type back in this offense...but you also don't have to go get him at pick 88. 

 

So yeah, I'd agree with you. I wouldn't spend more than 4-5M for a year or commit more than ~10M total to a player though. 

[BrewerFan]

23 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Until recently, premier RBs who get to free agency tend to be older guys who have worn out their welcome from their initial team, who likely gave them at least one bigtime extension through what is their prime.  Basically, you're getting damaged/worn out goods.  This has definitely been shifting along with RBs in general falling lower in the draft.

I do agree with you that you can typically find a solid FA running back option without having to break the bank each year - I guess this offseason more than others it seems like there are quite a few FA RBs I wouldn't mind giving multi-year contracts to based on where they're at in their careers, many of which are only going to be available now because RB contract values have sort of cratered faster than the franchise tag for RBs has dropped.  Teams see that and are reluctant to tag RBs and rather see them walk and then sign a different and comparable FA for half the cost of that RB tag.  

Again, agree. Now that the Packers have a little money and we know they're itching to upgrade the RB room, which deal would you do, a 2/8 for a good back who's got some potential, but hasn't been a star, or would you rather go 3/27 with 10M GTD for a guy like Barkley?

Go for the HR and the big-time difference maker?

I'm kinda comparing Gibson and Barkley, but that's because I'm a fan of Gibson, but you can make Pollard or whoever the cheaper one. Barkley is the type of guy who could still have a 2000-yard-type season(from scrimmage) and carry you. 

I think it's still POSSIBLE you get a CMIII type season from Saquan...or, for that matter, a 1200 yard season from Henry as he just keeps defying the offs physically. 

[OldHeidelberg]

Just saw on NFL network neither McKinney or Barkley to be tagged by the Giants and Winfield will be tagged by Bucs. I really like the idea of the Packers signing Barkley. It would take some pressure off Love at a good time for his development and they would probably get better value than paying more for another need like Devin White. I doubt it unless they have to cut Jones though, Barkley probably not interested in sharing top RB duties.    

[yourout]

The lions signing of Montgomery last year had to be one of the better signing off the year.

[BrewerFan]

23 hours ago, OldHeidelberg said:

Just saw on NFL network neither McKinney or Barkley to be tagged by the Giants and Winfield will be tagged by Bucs. I really like the idea of the Packers signing Barkley. It would take some pressure off Love at a good time for his development and they would probably get better value than paying more for another need like Devin White. I doubt it unless they have to cut Jones though, Barkley probably not interested in sharing top RB duties.    

I'd love Barkley on this team...and he fits what the Packers are trying to do, but I don't think it's a good idea to pay him the ~10M a year I think he'll get. 

If they spend on a RB...and I hope they don't, my guess is it'd be Derrick Henry based on Gutekunsts statements. Henry is also just a freak in his durability and he's stated his priority is to win a SB. He's also already gotten paid. I don't think that means you'd get him cheap, but it might mean you could get him for 1 year at a reasonable rate. It really doesn't make sense, but they aggressively went after Taylor last year(he would make sense this year).

I really thought McKinney would get a transition tag, but they didn't even bother to do that. 

The start of Free Agency will be interesting. I think Gutekunst is going to be aggressive early like 2019, but...we'll see.

[BrewerFan]

Bills cutting Tre'Davious White. Makes sense, kinda a no-brainer...would be a very interesting guy to take a flier on. 

250K signing bonus with the veteran salary benefit...whatever. Tack on some incentives. ACL and then the real killer, the Achilles, but if he's back week 8 next year and playing well, that could be a game changer. 

 

ON that note, their once elite safety duo are both on the market in Poyer and Hyde. Byard also a FA.

A few vets who could help during the transition, lets them draft a safety and provides some depth. Not play A, but a lot of safety's on this FA market who could help. Much fewer good corners as usual. 

[GAME05]

Barkley or Henry would obviously be great, but if GB only has room for one big FA add, CB or S or LB would sure represent a bigger difference than RB. Especially if the new DC likes to run a lot of single-high safeties.

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, GAME05 said:

Barkley or Henry would obviously be great, but if GB only has room for one big FA add, CB or S or LB would sure represent a bigger difference than RB. Especially if the new DC likes to run a lot of single-high safeties.

I wouldn't even consider it if it were up to me. You have Jones, I like Wilson, there are a lot of good backs out there. 10M on top of whatever Jones will cost, it makes little sense.

Using Free Agency to address more pressing needs opens the door up to be able to draft a RB in the 2nd rd if they want. If they think Wright is a good fit or...Brooks, whoever. 

 

On that note, Marshon Lattimore appears to be a trade candidate OR a FA candidate. He reminds me a little bit of Woodson. He's a physical CB. Very good cover corner. Not sure he's quite as good as his reputation, but he'd certainly be an upgrade. A deal would have to be worked out before a trade as he is also owed ~13M before the first week of the regular season...similar to Rodgers deal last year.

Gutey has talked about potentially using draft picks to acquire vets. Not sure exactly what makes sense here. Maybe a 5th? It's hard for me to guess with these veteran players who are pro-bowlers, but past their peak. Or even sometimes still at their peak. 

[Matt Breen]

Lots of safeties have been let go this past week. Justin Simmons and Xavier McKinney seem like the standouts. McKinney seems perfect for the team - but will cost the most. It would be nice to fill one of the safety slots with a quality veteran. I guess it all comes down to money and fit.

[BrewerFan]

12 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

Lots of safeties have been let go this past week. Justin Simmons and Xavier McKinney seem like the standouts. McKinney seems perfect for the team - but will cost the most. It would be nice to fill one of the safety slots with a quality veteran. I guess it all comes down to money and fit.

It won't be cheap, but safety is one of the more undervalued positions(probably because the Vangio system has been popular). 

But such a deep class, it'll be interesting to see what they do get. Spotrac has McKinney at 5/53. That's low. But 5/65 would be very reasonable. NYG didn't even offer the transition tag which would have been ~13M for this year IIRC.

Curl is projected to get the biggest deal and probably a little big of a better bet, but they're both outstanding. Curl is projected to get 4/57.

 

Chris Jones is projected to get ~29M AAV.
Wilkins is projected to get 4/80

I think both get 100M and Jones probably gets more over 4 years. It's just an undervalued position compared to pass rushers or OL. It's why I'd just keep taking the premium positions at the BPA early. DeJean is a unique player if they think he can cover and play the run like an elite safety(I'm not sure he isn't just a really good CB). 

 

Even if they go cheap, Fuller is projected to get 12M over 2 years. That's a very nice stopgap Safety at a really affordable price. 

[OldHeidelberg]

Packers to release Campbell and likely Bakh on Wednesday and designate them post June 1 cuts. This will free up space so they can be more active in free agency, specifically a safety and maybe other positions. No word on Jones yet. No link but it was a Silverstein report I saw.

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, OldHeidelberg said:

Packers to release Campbell and likely Bakh on Wednesday and designate them post June 1 cuts. This will free up space so they can be more active in free agency, specifically a safety and maybe other positions. No word on Jones yet. No link but it was a Silverstein report I saw.

I don't know why they'd designate Bakh a post June-1 cut. It doesn't matter either way. Campbell, that makes more sense as they save another ~7M against the cap by doing so. 

I liked the idea of just cutting Campbell now and moving on with a clean-er cap next year, but if they want to be active in free agency and then extend Love in May when he's eligible, it gives them more money available right now. 

Bakh -cut ~21M

Campbell post-June 1-10.5M

Before addressing Jones or Clark, that leaves the Packers at ~45M in cap space. Pushing some dead cap into the future...but you roll over the excess, so I guess it doesn't really matter, just makes for a cleaner cap. 

Seems like Xavier McKinney or Kamren Curl will be receiving significant contract offers from the Packers. Maybe Hafley goes and talks to former OSU DB Fuller?

Curl is projected to get 4/58
McKinney 5/52
Fuller 2/12(that seems low).
Justin Simmons-2/22

Jordan Whitehead is a very under-the-radar target. Big hitter, and good in coverage. 
Blackmon is another versatile safety. Both are very nice consolation prizes if you miss out on the top of the market. 
Nixon is someone the Packers are apparently trying to re-sign before FA. I think he's better suited to play safety, as he's stiff, but fast and physical. 

It seems like spotrac is generally low on projected FA dollars,...though there are a lot of safeties. I'd guess McKinney beats his AAV by 2-3M, Curl is close. Fuller is low. Simmons 

It'd be a HUGE coup to come out of Free Agency with two starting safeties, preferably one on a shorter deal so drafting a guy like Bishop, Bullock or whomever...is not a priority, but someone who can get on the field early and then step in right away and take over after their rookie year. 

Jerome Baker-Off-Ball Miami-Another former OSU player. 

OL-Connor Williams would be a great signing...one a shorter, incentive-laden deal. He likely wouldn't factor in until Nov. Doubt he'll be early to sign unless it's a one year deal to return to Miami.

Tyron Smith-I think it's more likely Bakh is back next year...and I've already got him cut in this exercise. But he'd be a really good short-term answer, and we'd have protection if(when) he missed time to injury. But like Bakh, he's still elite when he plays. 

Mike Owenu-NE Projected salary 4/60. He's a very Packer like player in that he can play LT, RT, both Guards, play them at a high level. But, this is why you draft OL and you use FA to build in around positions like RB, LB and Safety. That's very expensive for a good OL. If you pay him that type of money, you're likely not going to just figure it out in camp. He'll probably want to play RT. Which is fine, you can slide Tom over to LT...but he'd be best used as a RG(where he happened to grade out the worst). 

Lloyd Cushenberry-He'd be a big upgrade over Myers, but...4/32? The Packers don't seem to agree that Josh Myers is a player who needs to be upgraded...or so they say. I think the fact that they tried both JRJ and Rhyan there early last year with little success would suggest they simply don't have a better option and can't quite admit one of the few glaring mistakes Gutey has made in taking Myers over one of the top 2-3 Centers in the league in Creed Humprehy. 

The Panthers also cut Bradley Bozeman for some...reason. 7.3M dead cap, ~350K cap savings. For a team with a QB who was not only sacked the most this year and whose biggest question was how he could hold up given his diminutive frame, seems strange to move on from quality OL for minimal savings, but...the Panthers aren't exactly the model franchise.

[OldHeidelberg]

I got mixed up and assumed that Bakh would also be June 1 cut since it would explain why they are waiting. 

[Joseph Zarr]

 

[Joseph Zarr]

I can't think of a more vintage Packers opening day of Free Agency piece of news than the re-signing TE Tyler Davis. To the core.😅

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

22 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I can't think of a more vintage Packers opening day of Free Agency piece of news than the re-signing TE Tyler Davis. To the core.😅

Lotta ballgame left. Illegal free agency is only 87 minutes old.

[Joseph Zarr]

When I think of devastating career altering Packers injuries, I think of Nick Collins, Terence Murphy, and now David Bakhtiari. Should I add Chad Clifton in there? All incredible talents. All suffering injury fates all too soon in their careers. Bakh is a Real One. I'm going to miss him and his fantastic personality. Another middle round Packer O-Lineman steal. I still remember the rookie Training Camp reports on Bakh. What a fantastic Packer.

[kestrel79]

Agreed love watching that guy play. Hope he can stay healthy and he can win elsewhere.

Big what if in 2020 if he doesn't get hurt. I think we beat TB.

[AKCheesehead]

27 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

When I think of devastating career altering Packers injuries, I think of Nick Collins, Terence Murphy, and now David Bakhtiari. Should I add Chad Clifton in there? All incredible talents. All suffering injury fates all too soon in their careers. Bakh is a Real One. I'm going to miss him and his fantastic personality. Another middle round Packer O-Lineman steal. I still remember the rookie Training Camp reports on Bakh. What a fantastic Packer.

LeRoy Butler is another that comes to mind.

[DR28]

Signing Josh Jacobs??????? WTH

[Joseph Zarr]

4 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Signing Josh Jacobs??????? WTH

I'm also hearing Jones is near a restructured deal.

That RB tandem is going to be nuts.

Jacobs is really really good when healthy. Maybe a shared load will impact that even more? Surprised but excited about the possibility.

[DR28]

3 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I'm also hearing Jones is near a restructured deal.

That RB tandem is going to be nuts.

Jacobs is really really good when healthy. Maybe a shared load will impact that even more? Surprised but excited about the possibility.

OMG what?? We're keeping Jones??? Holy ****!!!!