2024 Brewers Rotation

[StearnsFTW]

I am far more interested in Montgomery. 

 

It'd be hilarious to have 6 (?) Possible LHP in the mix. 

[BrewerFan]

5 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

I am far more interested in Montgomery. 

 

It'd be hilarious to have 6 (?) Possible LHP in the mix. 

He just feels more plausible to me. Snell seems too unrealistic. I would think the Yanks or someone would give Snell 4-5 years at 35. I'd love to be wrong about that. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, BrewerFan said:

He just feels WAY more plausible to me. Snell seems too unrealistic. 

Depends. Montgomery is reportedly the one that's more set on receiving a long-term deal. He would almost certainly not be getting that from the Brewers.

[wallus]

Part of me says this is just speculation, the other part of me says there are a lot of guys that have to eventually sign so why not us.

I would expect a 2 year deal with a buyout after year one with a decent amount of deferrals.

[KeithStone53151]

4 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Out of curiosity, I ran my own numbers on this.  First problem I found was how to pick your starting pitchers...  There are hosts of pitchers used for a start or two.  So I selected this criteria:

• Only pitchers with > 80 IP
  • Avoiding people that started once or twice.  Needed a decent sample size.
• Only pitchers with >5 starts
  • There are some pitchers here that are still have more games as RP than SP, but I picked this to at least give a decent sample of starts in their numbers.

NOTE: this was my own criteria. I did not look at Fangraphs (or even your post) while doing it.  I just grabbed the raw 2023 data and filtered to try to get a decent sample without the noise of random starters.  ( i.e. small samples suck). 

Of that sample size: 

• Average ERA: 4.35
• Standard deviation: 1.01
• Ave ERA +/- one standard dev gives you 70% of the starting pitchers between 3.85 and 4.85 ERA. I was startled at how similar this was to the Fangraphs numbers you quoted.
  • Before anyone complains about my 70% number not being 68% for a normalized distribution... this was the calculated number as the distribution is not a normal gaussian distribution.  Close, but not quite.

 

I did similar to you, except I want to say i took over 50 IP. There are 173 pitchers in MLB that fit this criteria. 64 finished below 3.9 ERA, 56 finished above 4.8 ERA. The number I picked were arbitrary based roughly on what i was seeing from fangraphs projections. Using your 3.85 to 4.85 you can add 5 pitchers to the 53 between 3.9/4.8. I also used only stats accumulated as a SP. I changed the range from 50 to 80 and the results were similar, 55 under 3.9 and 35 over 4.8 out of 140. So I'm really not sure how you're getting to 68/70% falling within the 3.85 to 4.85 ERA range. Below is a link that may or may not work to how i sorted stats.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=1&season=2023&month=33&season1=2023&ind=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&stats=sta&team=0&sortcol=16&sortdir=default&pageitems=200&qual=80

 

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, wallus said:

Part of me says this is just speculation, the other part of me says there are a lot of guys that have to eventually sign so why not us.

 

Because some of the big money teams could easily scoop up either guy for a 1-2 year deal, and it's a lot more realistic thinking they would grab them up if what we are hearing is true.

It's not like we are making a secret deal under the table for Snell, that no other team is aware of.  If he's available for a 1 year deal, you can bet Boras has let everyone know, not just the Brewers.

It can happen, but the odds are probably really really really really low.

[brewmann04]

I would be ecstatic adding either or either of the other two would really make this rotation much more formidable 

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Depends. Montgomery is reportedly the one that's more set on receiving a long-term deal. He would almost certainly not be getting that from the Brewers.

Well...yeah, it always depends. Usually on money. It's March 7th. I'll bet on the reigning and two-time Cy Young being further out of our price range than the dependable...but unspectacular #2/3 starter left. 

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Well...yeah, it always depends. Usually on money. It's March 7th. I'll bet on the reigning and two-time Cy Young being further out of our price range than the dependable...but unspectacular #2/3 starter left. 

I mean if Snell is willing to take a 3 year deal with high AAV and opt outs, it's more plausible for the Brewers than Montgomery over 5 years or longer. 

There's not really much of a difference. Montgomery's actually put up a higher fWAR than Snell the last three seasons. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I mean if Snell is willing to take a 3 year deal with high AAV and opt outs, it's more plausible for the Brewers than Montgomery over 5 years or longer. 

There's not really much of a difference. Montgomery's actually put up a higher fWAR than Snell the last three seasons. 

Again, 2 Cy Youngs. One is an ACE, the other has never finished in the top 20 of Cy Young voting.

And I don't think Montgomery is more insistent upon a long-term deal. They both seem open to shorter deals...which again, I think would strongly favor Snell.

Finally, factor that Snell reportedly wants to sign with Seattle and is from the area...it'd be nice though.

[CheezWizHed]

15 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I did similar to you, except I want to say i took over 50 IP. There are 173 pitchers in MLB that fit this criteria. 64 finished below 3.9 ERA, 56 finished above 4.8 ERA. The number I picked were arbitrary based roughly on what i was seeing from fangraphs projections. Using your 3.85 to 4.85 you can add 5 pitchers to the 53 between 3.9/4.8. I also used only stats accumulated as a SP. I changed the range from 50 to 80 and the results were similar, 55 under 3.9 and 35 over 4.8 out of 140. So I'm really not sure how you're getting to 68/70% falling within the 3.85 to 4.85 ERA range. Below is a link that may or may not work to how i sorted stats.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=1&season=2023&month=33&season1=2023&ind=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&stats=sta&team=0&sortcol=16&sortdir=default&pageitems=200&qual=80

 

Crud.  You are correct.  I calculated both the numbers between 1 std dev (3.34-5.35) and between 3.85-4.85.  One Std Dev was 70%,  3.85-4.85 was 40%. Mathed correctly... interpreted wrongly. 😖 

I didn't find an easy way to separate SP numbers from RP numbers... hence the first criteria to try to separate and get mostly SPs...

[KeithStone53151]

11 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I mean if Snell is willing to take a 3 year deal with high AAV and opt outs, it's more plausible for the Brewers than Montgomery over 5 years or longer. 

There's not really much of a difference. Montgomery's actually put up a higher fWAR than Snell the last three seasons. 

I think a 3 year is just too much risk for the Brewers, though shrinking that down to a 2 year deal with an opt out and some level of injury protection for the Brewers could fit. We've historically done shorter deals late in the FA game and stretched the budget(i generally disagree with how much "stretching" is happening at a $130M budget, but that's a different topic), and 1 year of Snell could really bridge a very necessary gap from our current guys to Gasser/Miz/Rodriguez and the uncertainty of Ashby/Hall. This becomes more true pending the health of Miley. Having 2 locked in solid guys with 1 health risk and 2 spots up for competition is sooooo much stronger than 1 locked in, 1 health risk, 3 spots up for competition.

[Underachiever]

I want Montgomery more because Cardinal fans want him back, and it would hurt their feelings and give me some fun reading at Gateway Redbirds for a few days. 

[Brewcrew82]

On 3/8/2024 at 1:10 AM, BrewerFan said:

Again, 2 Cy Youngs. One is an ACE, the other has never finished in the top 20 of Cy Young voting.

And I don't think Montgomery is more insistent upon a long-term deal. They both seem open to shorter deals...which again, I think would strongly favor Snell.

Finally, factor that Snell reportedly wants to sign with Seattle and is from the area...it'd be nice though.

This indicates otherwise….Montgomery is insisting on a 7 year deal from the Red Sox. I think he’s a longer shot than Snell.

 

 

[BrewerFan]

32 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This indicates otherwise….Montgomery is insisting on a 7 year deal from the Red Sox. I think he’s a longer shot than Snell.

 

 

Ok...well, I'm more inclined to believe Boras and the recent trend. 

[umphrey]

Montgomery and Snell aren’t really in the “can’t find a team, might need a short term deal” situation. More like “lots of teams want me, drive up the length of the contract and AAV as much as possible”. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 hours ago, umphrey said:

Montgomery and Snell aren’t really in the “can’t find a team, might need a short term deal” situation. More like “lots of teams want me, drive up the length of the contract and AAV as much as possible”. 

That was the case in November 2023, too.  It's 4 months later and neither has been signed yet, so it's apparent their AAV demands plus length of contract aren't in line with what teams are willing to pay.

Boras will do his darndest to save face and say they got the best deal they could by waiting out the market, but neither deal will resemble anything close to what their initial hopes were - both would've been signed months ago it that were the case.

[TURBO]

[torts]

39 minutes ago, TURBO said:

And one of the biggest dbags to boot

[Brewcrew82]

If Trevor Bauer actually were still one of the best pitchers in the world, he'd be signed to an MLB roster by now.

[LouisEly]

On 3/7/2024 at 12:51 PM, CheezWizHed said:

Before anyone complains about my 70% number not being 68% for a normalized distribution... this was the calculated number as the distribution is not a normal gaussian distribution.  Close, but not quite.

 

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If Trevor Bauer actually were still one of the best pitchers in the world, he'd be signed to an MLB roster by now.

 

[NOMAAM]

If the season started today.

Peralta

Miley

Rea

Junis or Wilson.( kinda seems they are stretching him out.  Will be interesting to see how many pitches today.)

Hall or Ashby or Ross

[Ro Mueller]

This seems relatively significant. Ideally, we’d put Miley on the Injured List NOW and activate him a few days into the season, but I don’t think 15-day IL placements are allowed until Opening Day.

So if we think Miley will be effective a few days into the season, it’s easier to just roster him from the start. He could pair up with Junis for the first two weeks, for instance.

 

[monty57]

Thankfully, Miley's injury doesn't seem too significant. It looks like they're just going to have to get his pitch count built up, and they only have half of spring training to do so. Do they choose to keep him in extended spring training for a week or two, or do they put him on the MLB roster with a strict pitch count and one of the 'long reliever/spot starter" guys ready to take over when the limit is reached?

He's a lefty, and Junis and Ross are righties. If they have the roster spot, pairing a Miley start for 3-4 innings with Junis/Ross coming in to pitch for several innings wouldn't be the worst scenario. It just depends on whether they'd rather use the roster spot for another reliever until Miley is 100%.