Brewers Have a Positional Dilemma for Two Young Stars in the Outfield

[Matthew Trueblood]

Barring injury, Opening Day will find Christian Yelich in left field for the Milwaukee Brewers. The rest of the outfield alignment, though, is much less certain.

After they agreed to sign Jackson Chourio to an eight-year, $82-million deal that could keep him in Milwaukee for as much as a decade, the Brewers are going to have their rookie phenom in the lineup pretty much right away in 2024. If they believed he needed any more than a formality's worth of time in Triple A, they wouldn't have committed to him this way. With Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, and Garrett Mitchell already in the mix, though, it's worth asking: What's the best way for the team to array its youngsters?

By the time the season begins (or even within a few weeks), this could resolve itself. Mitchell and Wiemer are seen, by and large, as trade candidates, ever since Chourio signed his deal. A move centered around either of them and aimed at upgrading the team's projected starting rotation would not come as a shock. Even with one of those two gone, though, it's not clear how the remaining talent ought to be deployed. 

In general, the assumption has been that Chourio will be the center fielder. That's where he's listed on Roster Resource, a FanGraphs feature. The official site of the Brewers also lists him atop the Depth Chart in center, with Frelick in right. Baseball America's scouting report on Chourio says he "has the speed, acceleration and lateral range to be an above-average defender in center field." Everyone agrees that Chourio has some rough edges to sand off, defensively, but there's a general feeling that he can iron them out and end up as an above-average defender up the middle.

Because of Chourio's offensive profile, though, he'll eventually be a very good player even if he moves to a corner outfield spot. In fact, BA lists him as a right fielder, despite the praise above. He's thickly built, and the best version of him is a slugger who hits more than 30 home runs each year. There's room for an argument that he can best develop and serve the Brewers by moving to a corner sooner, rather than later, the same way Ronald Acuña Jr. has for the Atlanta Braves.

To buttress that argument, let's look at a few numbers. Here's how players who started at least 70 games in center field did when they were at that position, and when they were anywhere else, for each of the last three seasons.

Regular Center Fielders, At CF and Elsewhere, 2021-23

Season Split	AVG	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%	BABIP	wOBA
2021, CF	0.25	0.323	0.41	22.3	8.7	0.301	0.317
2021, Other	0.244	0.31	0.417	24.6	7.8	0.296	0.312
2022, CF	0.249	0.314	0.408	22.5	7.7	0.298	0.315
2022, Other	0.25	0.347	0.462	24	11.6	0.294	0.349
2023, CF	0.25	0.317	0.426	24.8	8	0.307	0.324
2023, Other	0.254	0.343	0.429	22.6	11	0.3	0.338

In 2021, guys who often played center were slightly better at that spot than when assigned to play elsewhere. The sample of plate appearances for that set of players at other spots was smallest that year, though. In 2022 and 2023, the bag looks a bit more mixed, but the advantage is clear in the big picture: Guys hit better when they were playing further down the defensive spectrum.

Yes, Aaron Judge somewhat biases this data, but nothing here is wholly a product of him, or of anyone else. Cody Bellinger split time between center and first base for the Cubs last year, but had an OPS .155 higher when playing center. The rest of the league more than offset that outlier.

This is not a surprising finding. Previous studies have shown that hitters hit better when playing less demanding defensive positions. It can be hard to tease out the cause and effect there, since only guys who might be a bit stretched at center or short are often asked to play more offense-first positions, like the corner spots. The data above is fairly free of that, though, because it starts by selecting the guys who played pretty often in center and only focuses on the differences between their performance there and elsewhere.

If you wanted to maximize Chourio's output at the plate, then, you'd be making the right choice by moving him to right field. Thinking long-term, maybe you want to hold right field open for a less athletic slugger, and maybe you want Chourio to get the maximum chance to make use of his speed, but even those considerations come with caveats. For instance, by signing him to this deal and moving him so rapidly to the majors, you're already risking rushing Chourio a little bit. Putting him in right takes away some pressure to refine his defense and lets him wrestle with the greater challenge of figuring out and assailing big-league hurlers.

It's also a bit safer to play right field than to play center. Chourio is less likely to wear down or get hurt out there, especially since navigating the wall when going back on fly balls is already one of his documented areas of weakness and a center fielder has to do a bit more of that than does a corner man. Given only average (or, as many teams in a similar spot might have, worse than average) options to play out there with him, you might play Chourio in center, but the Brewers have somewhat better than average options.

That brings us around to Frelick. He came up last July and showed all kinds of signs of being a credible, dedicated, intelligent big-league player. He showed speed, great contact ability, a discerning eye at the plate and great skill and daring in the field. What he did not show was any ability to leave a mark on the ball. He didn't make nearly enough hard contact in MLB in 2023. Of the 362 batters who had at least 200 plate appearances, Frelick ranked 345th in 90th-percentile exit velocity. He just isn't going to find power, no matter where he plays.

Add up his time in Triple A and MLB, and he spent almost exactly equal time in center and right field last year. He was solidly above-average at both spots, with 2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in center and 4 DRS in right, each in much less than a full share of playing time. Frelick does have what Chourio is still looking for, as he goes back on the ball smoothly and confidently and plays the wall well. He's a plus defensive center fielder, and remaining so is the only way he's going to be a valuable regular in MLB.

While all outlets agree that Frelick is currently positioned to be the regular who rounds out the outfield along with Yelich and Chourio, that needn't be locked in. Mitchell and Wiemer, should both be kept around, would make a solid platoon, with much more power potential and roughly equal defensive upside to Frelick, and they could slot into right field as well or better than they do in center. (Wiemer, in particular, looked a lot better in right last year.) They certainly don't project to get on base as much as Frelick should, though. On balance, keeping and starting Frelick makes the most sense, and if they do so, the optimal alignment has Chourio in right and Frelick in center.

Which way would you set the lineup for 2024--with Frelick in right and Chourio in center, or vice-versa? Is that decision primarily about winning this year or developing Chourio in the best possible way, at the big-league level? Can the team keep all the outfielders currently set for inclusion on the big-league roster, with the hope of moving Yelich to first base or DH in 2025 and beyond? Let's talk about the peculiar balancing act of trying to put talented but very divergent players in almost interchangeable spots.

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[Harold Hutchison]

If the Crew makes Yelich the primary DH (120 games), much of this resolves itself.

Frelick in left field, Chourio in right, Mitchell/Wiemer platoon in center, although you could rotate them around for matchups/days off.

Wiemer and Mitchell effectively platoon as the 4th outfielder on the squad.

[Matthew Trueblood]

3 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

If the Crew makes Yelich the primary DH (120 games), much of this resolves itself.

Frelick in left field, Chourio in right, Mitchell/Wiemer platoon in center, although you could rotate them around for matchups/days off.

Wiemer and Mitchell effectively platoon as the 4th outfielder on the squad.

Yeah. But they're not going to, so.. 🤷‍♂️ I wonder what would have to happen this spring for him and/or the team to come off this powerful commitment to Yelich as LF.

[old hickory]

Even if Yeli isn't made the everyday DH, I fully expect him and the rest of the outfield contingency to spend ample time there (barring a DH only acquisition), so those bats and defensive alignments should be in play regularly.  Frelick will probably move to LF as the game wanes, as he is probably the superior defender (to Yelich) at this juncture

[biedergb]

Frelick, Mitchell Wiemer, and Chourio all have the speed and defensive ability to handle center.

Who has a stronger arm? Long term that is who could go to RF. It could be Wiemer if his bat improves. But otherwise Chourio or Frelick.

I would think Frelick or Mitchell man CF for a bit as Chourio adjusts to MLB level. And then Chourio takes over CF at some point, and ultimately Yelich will have a LF/DH role, to give less stress on his back

I would think Yelich is more behind being everyday LF, as I bet he enjoys playing outfield. DH has to be very hard since you sit and only get up to hit, so mentally a different approach to the game then being in the field on a regular basis.

 

[Doug B]

3 hours ago, clancyphile said:

If the Crew makes Yelich the primary DH (120 games), much of this resolves itself.

Frelick in left field, Chourio in right, Mitchell/Wiemer platoon in center, although you could rotate them around for matchups/days off.

Wiemer and Mitchell effectively platoon as the 4th outfielder on the squad.

That makes Yelich's contract an albatross for the franchise. $26M/Yr. for a DH with 105-125 OPS+? Yikes! None of this would have been a problem if Yelich agreed to play 1B. 

[Brewcrew82]

I don't believe the Brewers gave Chourio that contract to stuff him in the corners. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I don't believe the Brewers gave Chourio that contract to put him in the corners. 

I agree but most teams don't have the center field options the Brewers currently do, either.

Personally, I'd probably try to hide Chourio in right and let someone else play center, if only to let Jackson focus more on adapting to hitting MLB pitching.

I also don't feel strongly about it.

[Devinep]

This is a good problem to have, but there are up to 4 guys who can play a good CF and that drives the value for them. Having CF-quality defenders in the corners is good, but at what point is it not utilizing sources to have 4 cf when you can only play 1 there?  
 

especially when they could still use one more solid hitter on the infield (Brandon Lowe or luis Arraez?) and lack starting pitching, maybe trading a semi-redundant OF to a team that could see more value as a starting CF in their team rather than a platoon and/or Corner OF/defensive replacement in Milwaukee makes more sense 

[Brewcrew82]

33 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I agree but most teams don't have the center field options the Brewers currently do, either.

Personally, I'd probably try to hide Chourio in right and let someone else play center, if only to let Jackson focus more on adapting to hitting MLB pitching.

I also don't feel strongly about it.

Maybe and that would be one argument I could see, but it's also what he's played his entire minor league career while being the youngest player in his league at every stop and he's done just fine.

No need to "hide" Chourio in a corner. He's a legit, 60 grade CFer. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

The prospect profile for Chourio is that of a potential generational talent, a big part of that being his defensive profile as a CF - when he is playing in Milwaukee, he's their everyday CF.  

Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer are all good young outfielders who range from playing good to exceptional defense from CF, and who also can be moved to corner OF positions.  I simply discount the "Yelich to fulltime DH" role to make room for one of these other 3 to become an everyday corner OF, because the best Brewer offense is currently one that has Yelich in left coupled with a 1B/DH combination of Hoskins + another veteran DH bat for 2024.  Among these 3, I'd say both Wiemer and Mitchell have higher ceilings as corner OFs based on their power potential, whereas Frelick could be a middling corner outfielder offensively with above average range defensively in left or right - or an above average centerfielder offensively and middling defense at that position.

Of those 3, I think one of them should be dealt once it's apparent Chourio is in Milwaukee, and at this point I'd lean towards it being Frelick to maximize return even though he appears to be much more polished at the plate than Wiemer presently, and he doesn't have the nagging injury history Mitchell does.  I reserve the right to completely change my opinion based on a series of meaningless spring training ABs against career minor leaguers though, lol!

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Maybe and that would be one argument I could see, but it's also what he's played his entire minor league career while being the youngest player in his league at every stop and he's done just fine.

No need to "hide" Chourio in a corner. He's a legit, 60 grade CFer. 

I only mean "hide" in the sense of reducing his workload where possible. He's a legit center fielder, for sure. And maybe that's where he should be playing, I'm only leaving the door open to "well, if you don't have to play him there, should you?"

[Ron Theobald]

A few thoughts as I read these posts:

I'm wondering if Wiemer is even in MLB to start the year.  He was slated to start last season in the minors and let's not forget he ended the year getting a few at bats in the minors.  He was really only in the majors last year due to injuries within the system. He certainly played well at times, but eventually holes in his game were exposed.  He is an MLB talent, but a year tearing up AAA could only be healthy. 

If Chourio plays a better CF than Mitchell .... then, DANG that's special. 

Let's not forget Perkins was a solid extra outfielder last year as well, with plus speed.   

Total flexibility throughout the lineup this year.  Both Yelich and Hoskins will DH a lot.

[Harold Hutchison]

16 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I agree but most teams don't have the center field options the Brewers currently do, either.

Personally, I'd probably try to hide Chourio in right and let someone else play center, if only to let Jackson focus more on adapting to hitting MLB pitching.

I also don't feel strongly about it.

Plus, having natural center fielders means you have a lot more range - and that means they get to some balls that may otherwise drop in for hits. That prevents runs.

[SF70]

If the team holds all of our OF’s, I think the team options Wiemer to gain the extra year and give him regular AB’s to open the season. I also see the team potentially optioning Mitchell to get him regular play and AB’s after missing most of last year. Yelich-Frelick-Chourio-Perkins and possibly Boller to open the season if they want 5 OF’s.

Eventually call up Wiemer-Mitchell depending on performance and if both are raking rotate them with Frelick with Yelich to majority DH.

I’m with Chorizo and think the team should trade Frelick, guessing his trade value should be highest of the 3.