Attention! Further Milwaukee Brewers Trades Are Imminent

[Jake McKibbin]

The Milwaukee Brewers are absolutely stacked in the bullpen; too few of their strong relievers have options. A trade seems imminent to unclog their depth chart, but who could we see go?

Image courtesy of © Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

Coming into the offseason, it appeared as though the Brewers' young outfield crop would be thinned down in return for MLB-ready talent at positions of greater need. However, it seems the Brewers are content (for now) to let them compete for starting positions. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for the bullpen, where they have far too many players who either cannot or will not be optioned to the minors. That presents a dilemma. 

The New Men
The Brewers have always prized the ability to shuffle their relievers around, outside of their top two or three players, and have reinforced heavily without disposing of any arms. Aaron Ashby, DL Hall, Joe Ross and Jakob Junis are four players competing for three (or maybe even two, if Robert Gasser breaks camp) starting pitching slots, shoving the remainders into the bullpen. Out of the three, it’s unlikely Ashby or Hall will be forced to the minors on account of their developmental potential (and Ashby's contract), while Junis and Ross signed major-league deals this offseason for $7 million and $1.75 million, respectively, which present a barrier to their release.

Matt Arnold and company also acquired Bryan Hudson from the Dodgers and Taylor Clarke from the Royals this winter. Both of them have options and the potential to be breakout reliever arms this year. Clarke has just one minor-league option remaining, and possesses two different sliders that generate significant swing-and-miss, along with a solid changeup that could excel away from the Royals' infamously poor pitching development system. Hudson is a lefty (something they desperately needed, aside from Hoby Milner), at 6-foot-8 with massive extension off the mound and a 56% ground ball rate. That should fit gorgeously with the Brewers defense this year. At least Hudson, if not both of these players, should see considerable time in the major leagues this season.

Pressure From the Farm
Adding to these new acquisitions/returnees are serious depth pieces in the Brewers farm system. Harold Chirino (14 innings, 0 earned runs, 22 strikeouts) was injured early last season, while Tobias Myers finally got his fastball to work for him to produce a 2.95 ERA in September with 12 strikeouts per nine innings. Both showed enough promise to get invites to spring training this season.

Hot on their heels will be Evan McKendry (in long relief) and James Meeker, neither of whom have high-octane "stuff," but both are efficient out-getters. That's not to mention the potential for the extremely talented arms of Jacob Misiorowski, Tanner Shears, and Shane Smith, who all had elite seasons last year and could force the Brewers' hand in the second half of the season. (Spencer Michaelis had a magnificent breakdown of them here). 

The farm system is stacked with hurlers who have the ability to impact the major-league club, and no doubt by the halfway mark of the season, many of them will be fighting it out for spots on the roster.

The Optionless Incumbents
The Brewers' current bullpen, as at the end of last season, looks a little something like this:

Devin Williams - Won’t be optioned
Abner Uribe - Won’t be optioned unless he struggles, which is a possibility
Joel Payamps - Out of options
Hoby Milner - Out of options
Bryse Wilson - Out of options
Thyago Vieira - Out of options
JB Bukauskus - Out of options
Elvis Peguero - Two option years remaining, a possibility
Trevor Megill - One option year remaining

It’s quite possible that each of Uribe, Peguero and Megill continue their phenomenal 2023 success into the coming season, which would leave the Brewers in a pickle. Leaving aside the outside possibility of the club trading Williams and/or Payamps, Vieira’s nasty stuff and Bukauskas's elite ground ball rates might wind up with another team. Wilson could also be a fall guy, with his underlying metrics not quite standing up to the scrutiny of Jason Wang this week (see here). Peguero could be an attractive trade option if he didn't have options remaining, a valuable commodity right now in the Brewers system. 

Interestingly, however, last year's initial bullpen group featured only Hoby Milner and Peter Strzelecki as optionable relievers, with Jake Cousins and Peguero stowed away in the minor leagues until needed. That resulted in losing out on Matt Bush, Cousins and Javy Guerra for virtually nothing, something that can be avoided this time around by a more proactive approach with significantly more talented personnel. 

In short, I could make an argument for any of these optionless players to be moved, from Williams down to Bukauskus, depending on trade packages offered. The long and short of it, in the moment, is that there's a huge logjam in the bullpen, and a trade is imminent with at least one, and potentially three or four relievers. It might come on the eve of Opening Day, but as we've seen very recently, this front office is not especially predictable when it comes to the timing of moves. Thus, a deal could materialize as soon as this week.

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Who would you like to see go? And what sort of trade packages do you envisage in the return? Let us know in the comments below.

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[eddiemathews]

Wait and see on the health of all of them (and effectiveness), and/or the desperation of other teams due to ineffectiveness/injury. No rush.

[jay87shot]

I personally would try and trade Payamps and Wilson, I think they are most at risk for regression and have guys who can replace them. They also should net a solid propsect or two with the seasons they just had. If Ashby is going to start in the bullpen I would consider Hoby as well, however losing Andrews and Small makes our lefty pen depth really thin.

1 guy I really don't want to lose is Vieira, I am guessing he would be on waviers if we had to make the 26 man today. I was really surprised we didn't let Baukauskas lose with the waive of recent acquisitions. It must be that Arnold or someone high up really sees something in him.

[Bashopolis]

I could totally see Ashby starting in the minors... on a sort of "rehab"/ control the number of innings he pitches type of placement.   The Brewers won't be expecting 150+ innings out of him; I could also see DL Hall spend some time at the beginning of the season in the minors if they feel he needs to work on specific items to be a successful starter.  

As far as relievers, it will depend a lot upon who does well in the Spring, but the Brewers will exercise caution to try to retain as much depth in the minors that they can.  I wouldn't expect that the best pitchers will break camp.  But rather those that show the potential to be contributors during the season and are the most at risk of being lost because they are out of options. 

 

 

 

 

[jay87shot]

I like the idea of sending and OF and RP to San Diego for high end prospect. Weimer/Mitchell and Payamps for Robby Snelling and Lamar King Jr.  would be a sweet deal for both teams. We get a high end pitching prospect (and upside lotto catcher) and the Padres fill 2 of there biggest holes with quality, controllable players.

[Jake McKibbin]

52 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I like the idea of sending and OF and RP to San Diego for high end prospect. Weimer/Mitchell and Payamps for Robby Snelling and Lamar King Jr.  would be a sweet deal for both teams. We get a high end pitching prospect (and upside lotto catcher) and the Padres fill 2 of there biggest holes with quality, controllable players.

This sort of idea makes a ton of sense, especially as the padres could easily be back in contention this year, it's a mystery they missed last season.

Theyll be all about cost savings at the moment but I wonder if this could tickle their fancy

[eddiemathews]

11 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

This sort of idea makes a ton of sense, especially as the padres could easily be back in contention this year, it's a mystery they missed last season.

Theyll be all about cost savings at the moment but I wonder if this could tickle their fancy

I'd love to get Snelling, but I think it will take an overpay to get him. And I'd be fine with that.

[CheezWizHed]

Terrible click-bait title.  The front office is unpredictable, so something could be imminent...  meh.

[eddiemathews]

25 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Terrible click-bait title.  The front office is unpredictable, so something could be imminent...  meh.

Meh. Backed by some logic, and makes a fairly strong case. Weak criticism.

[CheezWizHed]

I think it is safe to say that any pitcher off the 40 man staff is going to stay there through ST.  So looking at the pitchers on our 40 man staff (excluding Junk who seems to be going to Japan?), here is what I predict:

 

Junis gets a starting spot given the $7M price tag.

Hall and Ashby go for the last SP spot... I go with Hall to limit innings for Ashby, but it is easy to swap between the two as they both could start, could come out of the BP, or be optioned to AAA.  If Ashby isn't fully healthy, maybe a trip to AAA is better?

Peguero faltered late last year, so I have him as the last man out of the BP.  Clarke and Hudson join him.  Blalock was just added to the 40 man and is slated for AA this year.

Bryse Wilson had a great year last year, so I kept him in the pen.  But he seems like the type of BP pitcher that would fluctuate highly from year to year.  If he blows up in ST, cutting him wouldn't be a major loss. 

In this scenario, we potentially lose out on Vieira (a 2023 minor league FA) and Bukasuskas (late season waiver wire reclamation project).  That isn't losing much. 

Obviously, things can change in ST.  Uribe or Megill could come in wild and be sent to the minors.  Injuries unfortunately happen. 

So I think we are constructed rather well, without any trade imminent. 

 

 

[CheezWizHed]

9 minutes ago, eddiemathews said:

Meh. Backed by some logic, and makes a fairly strong case. Weak criticism.

There is no evidence of a trade imminent, hence "click bait".  The article itself was fine... though I tend not to agree with the main "problem".  I'd prefer a title that would've tied to the problem presented.

[jay87shot]

29 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I think it is safe to say that any pitcher off the 40 man staff is going to stay there through ST.  So looking at the pitchers on our 40 man staff (excluding Junk who seems to be going to Japan?), here is what I predict:

 

Junis gets a starting spot given the $7M price tag.

Hall and Ashby go for the last SP spot... I go with Hall to limit innings for Ashby, but it is easy to swap between the two as they both could start, could come out of the BP, or be optioned to AAA.  If Ashby isn't fully healthy, maybe a trip to AAA is better?

Peguero faltered late last year, so I have him as the last man out of the BP.  Clarke and Hudson join him.  Blalock was just added to the 40 man and is slated for AA this year.

Bryse Wilson had a great year last year, so I kept him in the pen.  But he seems like the type of BP pitcher that would fluctuate highly from year to year.  If he blows up in ST, cutting him wouldn't be a major loss. 

In this scenario, we potentially lose out on Vieira (a 2023 minor league FA) and Bukasuskas (late season waiver wire reclamation project).  That isn't losing much. 

Obviously, things can change in ST.  Uribe or Megill could come in wild and be sent to the minors.  Injuries unfortunately happen. 

So I think we are constructed rather well, without any trade imminent. 

 

 

I agree with this, but I think that is why we should look for trades. Peguero in AAA isn't ideal he was to good to get demoted, cutting Viera stinks, and send Clarke to AAA isn't ideal either. The  current configuration really doesn't allow for a couple back and forth guys to AAA like we usually have. 

[eddiemathews]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

There is no evidence of a trade imminent, hence "click bait".  The article itself was fine... though I tend not to agree with the main "problem".  I'd prefer a title that would've tied to the problem presented.

lol...that aged well

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, eddiemathews said:

lol...that aged well

Brewers DFA'd Andrews to sign Junis. This was a waiver trade. Not related at all to the article about trading current 40-man bullpen pitchers.

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, Bashopolis said:

I could totally see Ashby starting in the minors... on a sort of "rehab"/ control the number of innings he pitches type of placement.   The Brewers won't be expecting 150+ innings out of him

 

 

 

 

This is the way I'd go. I don't get very hopped up over the idea of Ashby working out of the BP. Let him get stretched out in the minors; I really don't care how long it takes or how cautious they need to be. Unless health/durability deems it impossible, he's a starter.

[eddiemathews]

11 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Brewers DFA'd Andrews to sign Junis. This was a waiver trade. Not related at all to the article about trading current 40-man bullpen pitchers.

Oh come on. It was a trade of a bullpen arm immediately after it was predicted, whatever the reason. 

[Team Canada]

Andrews was already guaranteed not to be on the team by virtue of being DFAed, so he really has no bearing on the substance if this article. Which I agree, is a solid article with a click bait-y headline.

[eddiemathews]

23 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

Andrews was already guaranteed not to be on the team by virtue of being DFAed, so he really has no bearing on the substance if this article. Which I agree, is a solid article with a click bait-y headline.

coulda passed through waivers and accepted a minor league deal

[Jason Wang]

Wonder what the trade value for Matt Bush would've been anyway if he hadn't been DFA. Not sure how much demand there is for a 38-year old pitcher with brutal numbers, albeit over a small sample size. He pitched alright in the Rangers minor league system but he's not getting any younger.

[Outlander]

I like how we get heel addiemathews from BrewCrewBall. It was an odd headline but decent analysis.

[eddiemathews]

1 minute ago, Outlander said:

I like how we get heel addiemathews from BrewCrewBall. It was an odd headline but decent analysis.

I'm a heel? Well, yeah, I guess, but how rude!

[CheezWizHed]

3 hours ago, eddiemathews said:

Oh come on. It was a trade of a bullpen arm immediately after it was predicted, whatever the reason. 

A trade that wasn't predicted by the article, of no one mentioned in the article, nor does it resolve the "problem" mentioned in the article. 

[eddiemathews]

33 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

 

 

33 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

A trade that wasn't predicted by the article, of no one mentioned in the article, nor does it resolve the "problem" mentioned in the article. 

I am hair splitting, and both of our statements are true. I'm not saying this exact trade was predicted, I'm saying a trade of a bullpen arm was predicted. It wouldn't have been revelatory to have said that Andrews might be traded, or prescient. But it happened. I found it humorous.

[CheezWizHed]

14 hours ago, eddiemathews said:

 

I am hair splitting, and both of our statements are true. I'm not saying this exact trade was predicted, I'm saying a trade of a bullpen arm was predicted. It wouldn't have been revelatory to have said that Andrews might be traded, or prescient. But it happened. I found it humorous.

I predicted that.