2024 NFL Discussion Thread

[GAME05]

34 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I think a players success is very dependent on the situation and coaching he gets.

Like what if Sam Darnold started his career on this current Vikings team instead of the miserable Jets?

Only a matter of time before a presumptive #1 overall QB doesn't declare for the draft and takes his $20M+ NIL money for another year of college ball just to avoid being in another Bryce Young situation.

[CheezWizHed]

11 minutes ago, GAME05 said:

Like what if Sam Darnold started his career on this current Vikings team instead of the miserable Jets?

Only a matter of time before a presumptive #1 overall QB doesn't declare for the draft and takes his $20M+ NIL money for another year of college ball just to avoid being in another Bryce Young situation.

I'm not going to buy-in on Darnold and the Vikings quite yet... 😉 but yes.

[BrewerFan]

16 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I think the only thing definite is that if the Bears took him, he would've been a QB bust. 😂

Ok...but you have play with me here! LOL...I'm saying...he's still Aaron Rodgers and even the Bears couldn't screw him up!

But...touché. Caleb Williams is as talented as any QB in the last maybe 10 years and he looks brutal! They just don't prioritize developing QBs with actual coaches...

21 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I think a players success is very dependent on the situation and coaching he gets.  Favre without Holmgren makes him ?? Rodgers without Clement working with him makes him ??

You're right. I'm just...assuming the development. But in fairness, I've said I think if Alex Smith came to Green Bay, he would have MVP caliber and Rodgers would have just been a good starter.

But again, I'm assuming he's still Aaron Rodgers in this scenario. You could add Love to this. VERY rarely you get a guy like CJ Stroud. Jordan Love would be worse than Drew Lock if not developed right...so fair point.

Incidentally, if you remember, a lot of people were down on Love in part because the Packers were targeting Lock in the early 2nd in his draft class(inferring they were bad at identifying QBs).

 

50 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I think there are few players that just succeed anywhere and everywhere. Certainly Rodgers is better than many QBs out there... but often the differentiator between the very good and the HOF is the situation he is put in (IMO).

Yeah, again...of course. BUT...Jim Harbaugh and the coaches they've had there, they develop QBs pretty well...

But under that premise, Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers and you put him on the 49ers. The one they lost with Kaep to Baltimore.

Just the last 5 years, Two SB losses, one in which they just needed Jimmy G to make an easy throw. The Eagles NFCCG loss when their QBs got hurt early, the Rams 23-20 loss in the NFCCG and last year they lost in OT. 

Those are 3 SBs I think they win, maybe 4. 

 

But yeah, it's going to have major butterfly affects. Maybe the Packers are like the 49ers if they take Smith and trade for Trent, McCaffery, whatever...

[Fear The Chorizo]

13 minutes ago, GAME05 said:

Like what if Sam Darnold started his career on this current Vikings team instead of the miserable Jets?

Only a matter of time before a presumptive #1 overall QB doesn't declare for the draft and takes his $20M+ NIL money for another year of college ball just to avoid being in another Bryce Young situation.

I think the Bryce Young situation has more to do with a college Heisman winner on a juggernaut college program being overrated heading into that draft, and a bad Panthers team made the wrong selection.  There have been plenty of collegiate QBs with all the accolades get picked high and instantly flame out.

It's too lucrative an opportunity to pass on being a professional football player that will be drafted in the top 5 to stay in college, no matter what the NIL money amounts to.  Jordan Love (a late 1st round developmental pick) had a great half of one season 4 seasons into his pro career and is now generationally wealthy.

[BrewerFan]

17 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm not going to buy-in on Darnold and the Vikings quite yet... 😉 but yes.

LOL....hell no! We'll see without Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson and maybe Jones next week!

The only thing they have is an elite OL...or at least OTs. 

But Darnold is another example. I actually do think most QBs who are talented, they fail because the organization fails them.

[GAME05]

And is Brock Purdy the opposite case? Would he be as successful on any other team? And if not, should SF use that as leverage or will he just get $55M a year like everyone else?

[Joseph Zarr]

I just saw the Panthers have benched Bryce Young in favor of Andy Dalton. I chortled. I may have laughed so hard I peed my pants. I can't tell. Is it joy? What football world is this?!?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The Vikings will be this year's team that gets out to 9-1 or something on a bunch of flukey nonsense, then finishes 9-8 and loses by 25 in the first round.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

The Vikings will be this year's team that gets out to 9-1 or something on a bunch of flukey nonsense, then finishes 9-8 and loses by 25 in the first round.

That was how they had such a good 2022 regular season - we all knew they were frauds and were quickly bounced out of the playoffs at home against the Daniel Jones-led Giants that year.

They are a team constantly in transition with a thin roster that's log in the tooth a key spots - a couple injuries to the wrong guys and they're going to get exposed.

[homer]

Ladies and gentlemen...Joe Barry!

 

[HarryDoyle]

13 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

The 49ers have 4-5 SB wins over the last ~20 years...if they draft Rodgers AND he develops into just 80% of the QB he was with GB.

1. This is a strawman argument.

2. You got the winning powerball numbers for tonight?

[HarryDoyle]

The Panthers are benching Bryce Young, the quarterback that carved up Joe Barry's defense last year.

[homer]

end of that Eagles game is why going up 6 is sub optimal late in the game. Eagles should have gone for it on 4th I stead of kicking the fg.

[yourout]

Just now, homer said:

end of that Eagles game is why going up 6 is sub optimal late in the game. Eagles should have gone for it on 4th I stead of kicking the fg.

I was thinking the same thing.

[yourout]

52 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

The Panthers are benching Bryce Young, the quarterback that carved up Joe Barry's defense last year.

Joe Berry was probably MLF's biggest mistake as a packer coach.

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

1. This is a strawman argument.

2. You got the winning powerball numbers for tonight?

I'm sorry, what's the opposing position? The argument that the 49ers DON'T wish they'd have drafted Aaron Rodgers? 

Can you show me one person making that argument? If so, sure...anyone who thinks they were better going Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers...I'll gladly cop to making a "strawman" argument. 

2-I'm not predicting the future. That'd be more like making the claim right before the Brewers put up 25 runs on the defending NL Champs, that their offense, good for #3 in the NL in runs score...has such a bad postseasonoffense, they will inevitably go 0-2 in the post-season. 

That's a person I'd ask for the Power Ball Tickets.  

I'm making an educated guess that one of the most dominant teams both defensively and with regard to the run game, a team that's  lost in the Super Bow 3X(despite leading in the last 2 last in the 4th Q), lost IIRC 3 NFCCGs by 1 score, largely on the back of poor QB play, lost another NFCCG because they didn't really have a QB...that PERCHANCE they'd have had better results with arguably the most talented player in NFL history at that position.

 

That...didn't feel like particularly insightful or visionary at the time. In fact, rather than telling you the power ball, it feels like it'd be more like telling you which stocks WOULD have been the best to buy from 2011 until today😂

[BrewerFan]

14 hours ago, GAME05 said:

And is Brock Purdy the opposite case? Would he be as successful on any other team? And if not, should SF use that as leverage or will he just get $55M a year like everyone else?

I don't know...if he's the opposite case or just that underrated, but it seems unlikely, IF he has a big year and they get back to the SB or a deep run, he'll probably get an extension. And 55M is the standard now after Dak. He was in a similar position. Talented OL, skill players wasn't great. He just got 60M GTD over 4years.

The only position it doesn't matter if you're the best, just the next up. Not long ago Rodgers 4 year ~140M extension was record-setting. Next it'll be 70M.

 

A cap just for QBs probably won't happen, but it'd make sense... 

[OldHeidelberg]

9 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

The Panthers are benching Bryce Young, the quarterback that carved up Joe Barry's defense last year.

I remember the night of that draft some here were really scratching their heads about how a QB that size could go #1. Especially considering what the Panthers gave up. Still puzzled about how an NFL franchise could blow it like that.  Maybe he still pans out but it's going to take Carolina a few years to dig out from this.

[homer]

17 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

I remember the night of that draft some here were really scratching their heads about how a QB that size could go #1. Especially considering what the Panthers gave up. Still puzzled about how an NFL franchise could blow it like that.  Maybe he still pans out but it's going to take Carolina a few years to dig out from this.

meddling owners gonna meddle

[CheezWizHed]

19 hours ago, GAME05 said:

And is Brock Purdy the opposite case? Would he be as successful on any other team? And if not, should SF use that as leverage or will he just get $55M a year like everyone else?

To clarify my previous statements, QBs like Rodgers and Favre would be starting QBs on any NFL team in their eras.  And they would probably be successful.  But I think they found situations where they were paired with key people that elevated their games to HOF careers.

The opposite examples work too.  Matt Flynn looked like a legit starting QB filling in for the Packers... but looked horrible after leaving the Packers.  Purdy strikes me a bit like Flynn.  Smart QB that is accurate and plays well within his system.  I'm not sure he'd see that level of success on every other team like he has for the 49ers. 

14 hours ago, homer said:

Ladies and gentlemen...Joe Barry!

 

WOW against the Packers, but also WOW that downward trend line... Looks like the dude was figured out and he hasn't adjusted (or can't). 

[GAME05]

But how accurately can you really measure a QB if he's on a team that's so bad? Granted, Bryce Young also misses easy throws which have nothing to do with his WR or OL. I kinda wonder if half the reason for benching Young is just to see how much better/worse Andy Dalton is and give the team someone to measure Young against.

Maybe the QB pay gap issue will be addressed once a new teambuilding strategy comes about. Maybe it just takes the next Heath Shuler to win a SB or two for teams to opt for the cheaper veteran who just doesn't make mistakes, or low-ceiling college Senior QBs who can play ok on the cheap but on a great team who focuses on the run.

[CheezWizHed]

35 minutes ago, GAME05 said:

Maybe it just takes the next Heath Shuler to win a SB or two for teams to opt for the cheaper veteran who just doesn't make mistakes, or low-ceiling college Senior QBs who can play ok on the cheap but on a great team who focuses on the run.

How many SBs did the last Heath Shuler win?😂  Sorry... I just wasn't expecting a SB discussion with Heath Shuler included in it. 

History has a pretty good record of showing that the game-manager QB with strong run game and top-5 defense can win SBs, but not often. 

The easiest way to win a SB is to have one of the top QBs of the year and surround him with as much talent as possible. 

[adambr2]

Random thought this morning:

I know it's way, way too early to draw conclusions. I know the talent is there. 

But. I really do think there's an excellent chance that Caleb Williams is going to be a massive bust. 

I know the pressure has been massive on him, but he hasn't approached any of it with an ounce of humility. He embraced all the expectations. I think he expected to come in and own this league from Day 1.

I watched the footage of Stroud trying to encourage him after the loss the other day. Caleb's demeanor was one of an immature ass. 

I don't know if this guy had the mental makeup and poise to pick himself up off the mat every time he gets down in the NFL. 

It's not *just* about talent. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

21 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Random thought this morning:

I know it's way, way too early to draw conclusions. I know the talent is there. 

But. I really do think there's an excellent chance that Caleb Williams is going to be a massive bust. 

I know the pressure has been massive on him, but he hasn't approached any of it with an ounce of humility. He embraced all the expectations. I think he expected to come in and own this league from Day 1.

I watched the footage of Stroud trying to encourage him after the loss the other day. Caleb's demeanor was one of an immature ass. 

I don't know if this guy had the mental makeup and poise to pick himself up off the mat every time he gets down in the NFL. 

It's not *just* about talent. 

One of the knocks on him even while he was mostly dominant in college was that he never really had to go through reads quickly and make the right decision on where to go with the football on time - he relied on talent and being able to make plays after the initial route trees broke down - often by his own intent by not throwing immediately to the open read, ala improvisation.  Aaron Rodgers had a really good run of years in GB doing that once he was already on a HOF track and after knowing what everyone was doing on the field (both offensively and defensively) based on NFL experience.  He also had to for a few years because his stable of receivers were brutal at getting open themselves with predictable playcalling and declining athleticism.  Right now, Williams is still playing like he's at USC, without a full understanding of his own playbook, and no clue what defenses schemed to confuse and pressure him are doing.  The Bears have done alot in terms of surrounding him with what seems to be a solid group of skill position players - but their O-line is still a question mark.  

Solidly agree that he's got the talent to turn into a great NFL quarterback, but the toughest part for him will be changing how he plays the game to fit into NFL competition.  Otherwise, he's got alot of Ryan Leaf in him.

[MrTPlush]

On 9/16/2024 at 6:06 AM, BrewerFan said:

The 49ers have 4-5 SB wins over the last ~20 years...if they draft Rodgers AND he develops into just 80% of the QB he was with GB.

This kind of ignores a lot of important things though. 

#1 The 49ers were AWFUL when he would have been drafted. If you assume Rodgers progresses to 80% of himself before 2011 then he has a good 3-4 shots to win a SB. 

#2 The 49ers had an advantage in all these years in the fact they never had to back up a dump truck to pay an elite QB. Even without having to pay a QB a ton of money they crated for almost a half decade as a team. By the time their next window rolls around (2019), what effect would a massive QB salary of had on that team?

#3 It also would have erased a lot of high drafting positions along the way too. The 2019 draft was a massive piece of their franchise. That doesn't happen without a revolving door at QB.