Brewer win total in 2024 season?

[tmwiese55]

I'd say the O/U should be set at 81 and I'd take under.  Going with 78 wins, tempted to do less planning on some deadline selling. 

[KeithStone53151]

On 3/26/2024 at 1:55 PM, wiguy94 said:

I think that could be a very noisy stat. The Brewers only used an opener 2 times last year. I don't know how common openers were for the rest of the league, but that could lead to a big gap in IP. Brewers used an opener 2 times in 2023. If a different team used an opener 10 times that's around 30 more "RP" innings that aren't necessarily pitched by the bullpen.

565 innings covered by relief last year, when I exclude 21 extra innings that averages to 3.35 innings per game covered by relief. Anyone interested in taking a bet that the Brewers relievers cover more than 3.35 innings/game this year? I bet the number is closer to 3.8 this year.

The opener stat you're referring to is only going to impact a handful of teams at most. So Brewers had 8th fewest out of 26-27 comparable teams...maybe?

[brewcrewdue80]

Checking it was all but Uribe of the back half of bullpen last season who had higher Fip than ERAs. It's volatile filled with luck(like defense) unless they plan to pitch that well. 

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Checking it was all but Uribe of the back half of bullpen last season who had higher Fip than ERAs. It's volatile filled with luck(like defense) unless they plan to pitch that well. 

It wasn’t just the back half of the bullpen, and it wasn’t just last year, the Brewers pitching staff as a whole has beat their FIP every full season since Stearns and company got here…

2016: 4.10 ERA | 4.37 FIP
2017: 4.00 ERA | 4.24 FIP
2018: 3.73 ERA | 4.01 FIP
2019: 4.40 ERA | 4.46 FIP
2021: 3.50 ERA | 3.72 FIP
2022: 3.83 ERA | 3.92 FIP
2023: 3.73 ERA | 4.21 FIP

[Junkball Jim]

88.

 

[brewcrewdue80]

4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

It wasn’t just the back half of the bullpen, and it wasn’t just last year, the Brewers pitching staff as a whole has beat their FIP every full season since Stearns and company got here…

2016: 4.10 ERA | 4.37 FIP
2017: 4.00 ERA | 4.24 FIP
2018: 3.73 ERA | 4.01 FIP
2019: 4.40 ERA | 4.46 FIP
2021: 3.50 ERA | 3.72 FIP
2022: 3.83 ERA | 3.92 FIP
2023: 3.73 ERA | 4.21 FIP

That is actually a worse outlook for this season on pitching.

2016: .27Fip

2017: .24

2018: .28 

2019: .06

2021: .22

2022: .09

2023: .48

2 tenths larger spread the 2nd largest season.  I've also try keeping in mind the Counsell effect handling the bullpen/pitching. Will Murphy have that effect? Everyone's roles are different starting out this season vs last season until Williams returns. 

[MrTPlush]

72 wins would be a 90 loss season...I don't think this is a 90 loss team. 

 

They give me 2013 vibes. Seems the offense could be a decent unit, maybe a good bullpen, but that rotation...no, just no. I will go 76-86. I think the division is kinda crap. They could win more, but I think it would be for no other reason than the poor division inflating everyone's win totals. 

[homer]

162

[Underachiever]

44 minutes ago, homer said:

162

Is that 151-11 in the regular season, and 11-0 in the playoffs? If so, I'm on board.

[stalton]

Murphy Era begins! 86 wins and a wild card berth

[BrewCrewForever]

84 wins and that might be enough to win the NL Central.

[homer]

On 3/29/2024 at 10:19 AM, homer said:

162

darn

[TURBO]

In the end, I just want them to win at least one more game that Coun....I mean the Cubs.

[Sixtolezcano]

Another March 2024 prediction thread

[Underachiever]

On 3/26/2024 at 7:57 AM, Underachiever said:

90 wins.

Bump. When they pass 90, I will apologize for my pessimism.

[formerlybis]

A lot of people seem to have correctly predicted elements of this team - starting pitching not covering as many innings as you’d like, young players getting an opportunity to play with ups and downs, and even Adames having a productive season. I can’t put my finger on any one thing in how this got MacGuyvered into such a formidable squad, but the whole is definitely greater than the sum of its parts.

[Samurai Bucky]

On 3/28/2024 at 10:22 AM, Samurai Bucky said:

75 -- sorry for being pessimistic.  I was actually thinking 72 originally.

The starting pitching isn't close to what it was even last year.  They would have 2-3 solid starters and that was the foundation of the team.

There was a consistent closer whether it was Hader or Williams.  It is up for grabs, but I don't know if the "new closer," whether by committee or otherwise, will be able to put up the same numbers.

The offense has been doing well in spring training.  Hopefully that will carry over, although losing Mitchell doesn't help.

 

Ahhhh... here is the preseason estimate.  

I'm glad I'm wrong.

[CheezWizHed]

On 9/19/2024 at 9:35 AM, formerlybis said:

A lot of people seem to have correctly predicted elements of this team - starting pitching not covering as many innings as you’d like, young players getting an opportunity to play with ups and downs, and even Adames having a productive season. I can’t put my finger on any one thing in how this got MacGuyvered into such a formidable squad, but the whole is definitely greater than the sum of its parts.

We underestimated Murphy's Law. 😉

[CheezWizHed]

On 9/19/2024 at 9:22 AM, Underachiever said:

Bump. When they pass 90, I will apologize for my pessimism.

May you be 5 low! 😉

[Underachiever]

homer	162
Underachiever	90
Frisbee Slider	88
Junkball Jim	88
owbc	88
BrewerFan	86
HarveyWBs	86
stalton	86
sveumrules	86
Jastro	85
nate82	85
Oxy	85
Playing Catch	85
Sixtolezcano	84.5
Brewcrew82	84
brooks_quichenick	84
CheezWizHed	84
Lathund	84
bigred	82
wiguy94	82
yourout (Heart)	82
Diamond Dog	81
kestrel79	81
Eddiemathews	80
Fangraphs	80
RobDeer45	80
Brock Beauchamp	79.5
Ignitor 4ever	79.5
PECOTA	79
TURBO	79
BruisedCrew	78
tmwiese55	78
brewcrewdue80	77
superfly	77
yourout (Head)	77
Brewin	76.5
Vegas	76.5
MrTPlush	76
Platoon Power	75
RightFieldCoder	75
Samurai Bucky	75
KeithStone53151	74
Outlander	73
BrewerFan's friend	70

[CheezWizHed]

14 hours ago, Underachiever said:

homer	162
Underachiever	90
Frisbee Slider	88
Junkball Jim	88
owbc	88
BrewerFan	86
HarveyWBs	86
stalton	86
sveumrules	86
Jastro	85
nate82	85
Oxy	85
Playing Catch	85
Sixtolezcano	84.5
Brewcrew82	84
brooks_quichenick	84
CheezWizHed	84
Lathund	84
bigred	82
wiguy94	82
yourout (Heart)	82
Diamond Dog	81
kestrel79	81
Eddiemathews	80
Fangraphs	80
RobDeer45	80
Brock Beauchamp	79.5
Ignitor 4ever	79.5
PECOTA	79
TURBO	79
BruisedCrew	78
tmwiese55	78
brewcrewdue80	77
superfly	77
yourout (Head)	77
Brewin	76.5
Vegas	76.5
MrTPlush	76
Platoon Power	75
RightFieldCoder	75
Samurai Bucky	75
KeithStone53151	74
Outlander	73
BrewerFan's friend	70

For the graph, I assumed @homer's prediction was in jest...but he is a homer... 😉

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

14 hours ago, Underachiever said:

homer	162
Underachiever	90
Frisbee Slider	88
Junkball Jim	88
owbc	88
BrewerFan	86
HarveyWBs	86
stalton	86
sveumrules	86
Jastro	85
nate82	85
Oxy	85
Playing Catch	85
Sixtolezcano	84.5
Brewcrew82	84
brooks_quichenick	84
CheezWizHed	84
Lathund	84
bigred	82
wiguy94	82
yourout (Heart)	82
Diamond Dog	81
kestrel79	81
Eddiemathews	80
Fangraphs	80
RobDeer45	80
Brock Beauchamp	79.5
Ignitor 4ever	79.5
PECOTA	79
TURBO	79
BruisedCrew	78
tmwiese55	78
brewcrewdue80	77
superfly	77
yourout (Head)	77
Brewin	76.5
Vegas	76.5
MrTPlush	76
Platoon Power	75
RightFieldCoder	75
Samurai Bucky	75
KeithStone53151	74
Outlander	73
BrewerFan's friend	70

Brewers888                      24

[folly412]

If we play reverse Price Is Right and have to be the closest without being under, 162-0 is the winning prediction.  

[young guns]

On 9/25/2024 at 8:16 AM, folly412 said:

If we play reverse Price Is Right and have to be the closest without being under, 162-0 is the winning prediction.  

And now homer has to give us all a car

[owbc]

On 9/19/2024 at 7:22 AM, Underachiever said:

Bump. When they pass 90, I will apologize for my pessimism.

You are now Overachiever.