Would you give William Contreras the Will Smith deal

[BrewerFan]

On 4/26/2024 at 10:23 PM, rickh150 said:

If I am in his position, I’d like my next 3 controlled years (2025-2027) to have guaranteed money yesterday and not risk injury without getting big money. How much would the team give him up front to guarantee his salary? They might even be interested in “saving” a little money and not seeing where arby numbers go to in the next few years. Would 30 million be fair? 

So he can have the security without giving up a year or control? Why do we do that? So we maybe save money(or maybe lose money)?

[Playing Catch]

5 hours ago, zurch1818 said:

It's not really related to the contract, but I'm curious if anyone has any insight on why his statcast framing last year was in the 93rd percentile and now it is in the 2nd percentile?

It's like when I golf and I birdie and then my round goes to hell when I three-putt double the next hole. After that fine display, it seems like it takes a few holes for me to get a par again.  I guess that's why I can't routinely break 80.

I don't know why this is, but I don't want to leave this question on page 2.

I'm "glad" this is the case, because I've felt all year that the Brewers pitchers were getting squeezed. (No, I didn't feel that way last year).

[MrTPlush]

2 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

So he can have the security without giving up a year or control? Why do we do that? So we maybe save money(or maybe lose money)?

#1 So we can save money

#2 So we can better balance out his salary versus a tax bill well over $20mil the last year. If we so chose to do. 

#3 Avoid awkward arbitration drama

Contreras is having a pretty extreme amount of success before even hitting year one of arbitration. At least one Silver Slugger, at least one MVP vote finish, and probably two All Star appearances. His first arby salary is going to be pretty hefty and set him up for hefty raises. 7/14/22 or something probably wouldn't be hard to imagine if he continues to be a Silver Slugger type guy. 

[BrewerFan]

3 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

#1 So we can save money

#2 So we can better balance out his salary versus a tax bill well over $20mil the last year. If we so chose to do. 

#3 Avoid awkward arbitration drama

Contreras is having a pretty extreme amount of success before even hitting year one of arbitration. At least one Silver Slugger, at least one MVP vote finish, and probably two All Star appearances. His first arby salary is going to be pretty hefty and set him up for hefty raises. 7/14/22 or something probably wouldn't be hard to imagine if he continues to be a Silver Slugger type guy. 

So if 7/14/22 wouldn't be hard to imagine and it's been agreed, he won't consider an extension(unless he's paid top of the market numbers), why is he going to take 30M over that time? 

You just laid out a plausible path for 43M. He's giving up 13M there. 

[Frisbee Slider]

This has been said many times already, but we have Contreras for another three full seasons after this year.

We really don’t know if we want the highest paid 30+ year old catcher. We don’t really have to think about it, either.
 

[MrTPlush]

 

2 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

So if 7/14/22 wouldn't be hard to imagine and it's been agreed, he won't consider an extension(unless he's paid top of the market numbers), why is he going to take 30M over that time? 

You just laid out a plausible path for 43M. He's giving up 13M there. 

Risk / Reward

I have mentioned it before, but Contreras pretty much has no reason to really chase an 'insurance' deal. He already has a good $10mil assured the next two years even if he somehow did something to miss the rest of this year and all of next year. We would pay him his arby salary next year to rehab and then still pay him the same to have him in 2026. His defense is good enough he will carve out a 10+ year career anyway and make tens of millions. I mean Manny Pina made $15mil in his career. The demand for a catcher with a pulse is really high. It isn't like he is an OFer and simply having a pulse isn't enough. The risk for a guy like say Frelick is literally not being on a MLB roster. Contreras is on an MLB roster even if he falls of a talent cliff. 

Nightmare situation he makes $15mil the next three years, best case is probably about $50mil. Locking in $30mil wouldn't be a terrible idea, but the motivation probably isn't all that high to do so. It isn't that uncommon to just buy out a guys arby years and be done with it though. You see it fairly often when a guy is entering the second to last year and the team just gives a 2 year deal. The Brewers did it with Prince Fielder. 

[Jopal78]

I don’t know why folks keep posting about an extension. There was an article in the JS a few weeks back where he was asked about an extension and said “Not Interested”. End of story. 

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t know why folks keep posting about an extension. There was an article in the JS a few weeks back where he was asked about an extension and said “Not Interested”. End of story. 

He and his brother are such competitors. I don't see why beating out his brother for a FA contract wouldn't be a huge part of that. 

[TURBO]

5 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

This has been said many times already, but we have Contreras for another three full seasons after this year.

We really don’t know if we want the highest paid 30+ year old catcher. We don’t really have to think about it, either.
 

In all likelihood, we have him for 2 more seasons after this one.  Like I have said before in this thread, if he is a free agent in 2028, he won't be a Brewer in 2027 as I think he will be traded.  So we have him in 2025 and 2026.

If we aren't going to extend him, and if he continues what he is doing until the end of the 2026 season, we should get a king's ransom for him on the trade market.

So for the next 2.5 years, enjoy him!

[BrewerFan]

On 5/15/2024 at 10:42 AM, MrTPlush said:

 

Risk / Reward

I have mentioned it before, but Contreras pretty much has no reason to really chase an 'insurance' deal. He already has a good $10mil assured the next two years even if he somehow did something to miss the rest of this year and all of next year. We would pay him his arby salary next year to rehab and then still pay him the same to have him in 2026. His defense is good enough he will carve out a 10+ year career anyway and make tens of millions. I mean Manny Pina made $15mil in his career. The demand for a catcher with a pulse is really high. It isn't like he is an OFer and simply having a pulse isn't enough. The risk for a guy like say Frelick is literally not being on a MLB roster. Contreras is on an MLB roster even if he falls of a talent cliff. 

Nightmare situation he makes $15mil the next three years, best case is probably about $50mil. Locking in $30mil wouldn't be a terrible idea, but the motivation probably isn't all that high to do so. It isn't that uncommon to just buy out a guys arby years and be done with it though. You see it fairly often when a guy is entering the second to last year and the team just gives a 2 year deal. The Brewers did it with Prince Fielder. 

The first paragraph is just a lot of you explaining why you're right about past discussions.

The second is you really contradicting those past arguments by sayin' 'well, could make 50, but taking 30 wouldn't be a terrible idea.'

So taking 100M in an extension that buys out a couple FA deals, there's NO reason for a catcher to do that because all it takes a pulse and he'll be making money, but there's plenty of reason for him to give up money the next 3 years because you have to measure the risk/reward? Kinda seems like it's one or the other. They both follow the same logic. 

[BrewerFan]

On 5/15/2024 at 1:18 PM, Jopal78 said:

I don’t know why folks keep posting about an extension. There was an article in the JS a few weeks back where he was asked about an extension and said “Not Interested”. End of story. 

Nobody "keeps asking about it," and the policing of what you can talk about is really obnoxious. We're fans talking about a hypothetical. That's ALL it ever is since nobody on here actually has a say.

And the question was if the Brewers had talked to him about a contract extension and "if I had to read between the lines...."

At the end of last year, he was apparently interested per the MJS and Curt Hogg.

Either way, I'm not seeing anyone still talking about a long term extension and more about buying out the last 3 years when you decided to scold us for talking about it;

https://subscribe.jsonline.com/restricted?return=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jsonline.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fmlb%2Fbrewers%2F2023%2F09%2F07%2Fbrewers-william-contreras-an-offseason-bargain-now-is-milwaukee-mvp%2F70767219007%2F&gps-source=CPROADBLOCKDH

[torts]

Take all of marks money, give him a key to whatever mint mark has, lock this bad mfer up holy crap

[TURBO]

4 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

...and the policing of what you can talk about is really obnoxious. We're fans talking about a hypothetical. That's ALL it ever is since nobody on here actually has a say.

 

Happens all the time, not by just the poster you are talking to, but others as well.  Even mods censor what we are allowed to talk about, even though this is a site to discuss baseball.  It's a product of today's society.  If someone doesn't like something, nobody else gets to like it either.  If someone wants to talk about something and someone doesn't like it, you aren't allowed to talk about it. 

If you don't agree with me, you aren't allowed to have an opinion kind of mentality.

Just a horrible way to go about life.

I digress...

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, torts said:

Take all of marks money, give him a key to whatever mint mark has, lock this bad mfer up holy crap

[Outlander]

As much as I don't think they will extend Contreras it is also obvious it will be a topic in the Milwaukee media for years to come so better get used to it.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, Outlander said:

As much as I don't think they will extend Contreras it is also obvious it will be a topic in the Milwaukee media for years to come so better get used to it.

I have a feeling the Brewers would very much like to extend Contreras, but Contreras seemed pretty intent on eventually becoming a FA when he was asked at the beginning of the year.

[yfinn6]

2 hours ago, TURBO said:

Happens all the time, not by just the poster you are talking to, but others as well.  Even mods censor what we are allowed to talk about, even though this is a site to discuss baseball.  It's a product of today's society.  If someone doesn't like something, nobody else gets to like it either.  If someone wants to talk about something and someone doesn't like it, you aren't allowed to talk about it. 

If you don't agree with me, you aren't allowed to have an opinion kind of mentality.

Just a horrible way to go about life.

I digress...

What a bunch of "boomer gibberish". 

You are free to agree or disagree with whomever on Brewerfan. Nobody is "censoring" what you say, they're just asking you to not be a jerk and follow some simple rules. 

I know where you are going with this, and I do not think you have as good of a grasp on this amendment as you think you do. 

 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

I have a feeling the Brewers would very much like to extend Contreras, but Contreras seemed pretty intent on eventually becoming a FA when he was asked at the beginning of the year.

Well, likely because there hadn't been an offer made. He'd previously said Milwaukee felt like home, no talks had begun, etc...that was the end of last season.

But, I'd guess we're at a point of diminishing returns...signing him now...there probably wouldn't be a whole lot of room for surplus value. Certainly allows Quero time to recover and get his footing in AAA next year. And then after that, maybe get a package similar to what the Fins got for Realmuto(though I'd hope we'd develop the top prospects much better).

 

 

[Jopal78]

On 5/18/2024 at 3:46 PM, BrewerFan said:

Nobody "keeps asking about it," and the policing of what you can talk about is really obnoxious. We're fans talking about a hypothetical. That's ALL it ever is since nobody on here actually has a say.

And the question was if the Brewers had talked to him about a contract extension and "if I had to read between the lines...."

At the end of last year, he was apparently interested per the MJS and Curt Hogg.

Either way, I'm not seeing anyone still talking about a long term extension and more about buying out the last 3 years when you decided to scold us for talking about it;

https://subscribe.jsonline.com/restricted?return=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jsonline.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fmlb%2Fbrewers%2F2023%2F09%2F07%2Fbrewers-william-contreras-an-offseason-bargain-now-is-milwaukee-mvp%2F70767219007%2F&gps-source=CPROADBLOCKDH

This used to be a place for the informed fan, now it’s apparently for throwing hypotheticals to sign a player who is on record THIS SEASON as saying “not interested” in an extension and “my time will come”. 

Great, let me get in on the action:  I hope they resign Burnes this winter too. I’m figuring he liked it in Milwaukee and probably care more about where he pitches than making the absolute most money so 3/100 would probably get it done.

 

 

 

[homer]

6 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

This used to be a place for the informed fan, now it’s apparently for throwing hypotheticals to sign a player who is on record THIS SEASON as saying “not interested” in an extension and “my time will come”. 

Great, let me get in on the action:  I hope they resign Burnes this winter too. I’m figuring he liked it in Milwaukee and probably care more about where he pitches than making the absolute most money so 3/100 would probably get it done.

You know we used to crack down a lot harder on condescension. maybe we should get back to that. Stop being so condescending. If you don't like a thread topic DON'T POST IN IT. It's really that easy.

 

[Jopal78]

32 minutes ago, homer said:

You know we used to crack down a lot harder on condescension. maybe we should get back to that. Stop being so condescending. If you don't like a thread topic DON'T POST IN IT. It's really that easy.

 

Read the whole thread first to get some context. A couple pages back I posted straight news from a chat at js.com:. Contreras isn’t signing an extension with Milwaukee.

Next, there’s a litany of posts wondering how much it would take to get it done and if it’s a good deal or not etc. I reiterate that from the horses, mouth and extension isn’t going to happen and get attacked for it. No wonder why these boards kind of suck now 

 

 

[homer]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Read the whole thread first to get some context. A couple pages back I posted straight news from a chat at js.com:. Contreras isn’t signing an extension with Milwaukee.

Next, there’s a litany of posts wondering how much it would take to get it done and if it’s a good deal or not etc. I reiterate that from the horses, mouth and extension isn’t going to happen and get attacked for it. No wonder why these boards kind of suck now 

I read the context. Rosiak doesn't rule it out only that it would take a crap ton of money to extend him and now people are debating how much a "crap ton" really is. 

There is no excuse to demean the entire board with junk like this: "This used to be a place for the informed fan"

 

 

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, homer said:

I read the context. Rosiak doesn't rule it out only that it would take a crap ton of money to extend him and now people are debating how much a "crap ton" really is. 

There is no excuse to demean the entire board with junk like this: "This used to be a place for the informed fan"

 

 

You left out the salient point about Contreras where he quote said “I’m not interested in that”.
 

Obviously any team can sign any player if they’re willing to pay whatever it takes, but we all know that isn’t happening with the Milwaukee Brewers 
 

As for the status of boards; I am not demeaning anyone, the truth hurts Homie. There is a reason hardly any  of the posters from the old BF.net still post here regularly anymore. 
 

[homer]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

You left out the salient point about Contreras where he quote said “I’m not interested in that”.
 

Obviously any team can sign any player if they’re willing to pay whatever it takes, but we all know that isn’t happening with the Milwaukee Brewers 
 

As for the status of boards; I am not demeaning anyone, the truth hurts Homie. There is a reason hardly any  of the posters from the old BF.net still post here regularly anymore. 
 

Yes you are. See you in a few days.

 

Everyone else - keep it civil. Thanks.

[rickh150]

The idea of a guaranteed 30 million from 2015-2017 isn’t really an extension per se since Contreras is controlled by Brewers thru 2017. Contreras maybe isn’t looking for a 7-8 year deal in Milwaukee, but I almost assume he would take guaranteed money through 2027 if he didn’t have to leave too much on the table.  Also, I cannot fathom why any athlete wouldnt want some security with a big money, first multi year  guaranteed contract instead of going year to year.

I assume he’d be interested in this if the offer is high enough, and the Brewers too if offer was low enough. I think there could be middle ground here.