Pitchers Have Already Learned How to Attack Jackson Chourio

[Jack Stern]

The book is out on Jackson Chourio's weaknesses as a hitter, and pitchers have responded accordingly. It's now on the Brewers' top prospect and would-be star rookie to make his first round of big adjustments.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Jackson Chourio is 20 games into his big-league career, and his results so far have been mixed. The 20-year-old phenom made an immediate impact on both sides of the ball throughout his first week in the majors, but has since fallen on harder times. Chourio entered Wednesday hitting .218/.271/.385, for a well-below-average 82 wRC+.

Slash lines can still change dramatically from day to day this early in the season, so results do not mean much yet. What matters more is the process, which has also been a mixed bag for Chourio.

When he has produced, it’s been a product of his elite tools. Chourio's excellent bat speed and raw strength have already produced four home runs, and his speed has helped him post a 16% infield hit rate on ground balls, more than double the league average.

He’s also shown solid pitch recognition. Two of Chourio’s four homers have come against breaking balls. Last Monday, he recognized a two-strike changeup, waited back, and launched it off the top of the wall in left field.

What he lacks is a refined approach. Laying off outside pitches has been a struggle for Chourio, whose 34% chase rate is several ticks higher than the MLB average of 28.4%.

That aggressiveness has made him vulnerable against breaking balls low and away. In contrast to his two homers on hanging sliders, breaking balls below the belt have rendered Chourio helpless, dragging his wOBA against such pitches down to .242.

None of this is worrisome for Chourio’s long-term outlook. Facing big-league pitching is a different beast than hitting at any level of the minors. Most young hitters find themselves having to fine-tune their swing decisions accordingly. Chourio’s exceptional pitch recognition and ability to punish mistakes already give him a leg up as he faces a learning curve.

It will still be a bumpy ride, though. Pitchers have already figured out how to exploit Chourio’s weaknesses, which will limit his offensive production until he makes his first round of adjustments.

Opponents know that Chourio is vulnerable against breaking balls down and away, and have already made it the foundation of their game plan against him. An eye-opening 41.8% of the pitches Chourio has seen have been breaking balls, the fourth-highest rate of any qualified hitter. Pitchers are hammering him off the outer third with soft stuff.

The approach has become more vivid in some of Chourio’s recent plate appearances. Michael King spammed him with sweeping sliders well off the plate last week during his no-hit bit. Chourio went 0-for-3 against King, with a pair of strikeouts on sweepers in the left-handed batter’s box.

Jared Jones threw six sliders to Chourio out of seven pitches on Monday night, generating four swinging strikes.

Pitchers have figured out how to neutralize Chourio just 20 games into his big-league career. Despite continuing to have a game or two each week that flashes brilliance, his OPS since Apr. 8 is .540. He's already shown the vital capacity to adjust, but it may take some time for his approach to catch up to his tools.

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[Joseph Zarr]

Off-speed away and off the plate has been Chourio's kryptonite since he came stateside - sliders especially. Every level. We distinctly saw it in the Southern League. All of this 'should' have been anticipated and highly likely was by the Brewers org. Pitchers who want to get cute and challenge him with a change-up or a heater typically regret it. MLB pitchers and staffs are obviously working with different animals and are adjusting quite a bit faster. It's up to him now to evolve this part of his game - and, the obvious 'concern' here is he's a very young rookie trying to do this at the hardest level of baseball.

It's a big flaw and it is the facet of his game that needs to improve in the years ahead if we are to see his true potential. Anyone who watched him with a discerning eye knows this. 

Hopefully, fans understand this and allow the process to unfold. 

[Kripes - Brewers]

I'm fine with the learning process, but I'd rather it didn't happen as our leadoff hitter! Let's get him down around 7-8-9. I'm sure it'll change when Yeli gets back anyway, but for heaven's sake you need your high OBP guys in that spot. As productive as Contreras has been, you need guys on base when he gets up there. Kripes!

[Brian]

1 hour ago, Kripes - Brewers said:

I'm fine with the learning process, but I'd rather it didn't happen as our leadoff hitter! Let's get him down around 7-8-9. I'm sure it'll change when Yeli gets back anyway, but for heaven's sake you need your high OBP guys in that spot. As productive as Contreras has been, you need guys on base when he gets up there. Kripes!

I agree with lower in the linup but as of now, we only have about 4 players hitting well until we get Yellach back. 

[jay87shot]

I agree with lower in the lineup and I would give him more days off especially when facing rhp with big horizontal movement on slider/sweepers. 

[WAN2]

There's a lot riding on this phenom and his effect on the entire organization...and their phenom history isn't inspiring.

[rolafaive]

This kid is still a little starry-eyed to be in majors at 20 years of age, like all rookies, eventually, teams will always figure out the newbies, now he needs to be able to adjust and give pitchers a different look, lay off the outside pitch, if the ump gives called strikes so be it, you have to learn patience.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, WAN2 said:

There's a lot riding on this phenom and his effect on the entire organization...and their phenom history isn't inspiring.

But who is the last guy to be a top-3 or top-5 prospect? Braun didn't get there, even Fielder never got there.

Chourio is on a level the Brewers haven't seen in a long time.

Sheffield, maybe? Weeks might have been that high, I can't recall.

[Trax]

Weeks was 2 briefly at some point if I remember right.  I think Jackson has a much brighter potential than Weeks ever had.

On multiple fronts.

 

A great jump for him to MLB, he would have been better served at Triple A for a bit longer but I understand the need to move him up.  Patience with him should be long term.

 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

He's barely 20....TWENTY.

Braun was in college at twenty.  So was Weeks.  Fielder spent his full age 20 season in AA.

Color me unsurprised that a young hitter's weakness is offspeed low and away that breaks out of the strike zone.  Chourio simply hasn't seen enough of those pitches to make that adjustment in his approach to lay off them - but he's been so good otherwise that he's having to learn to solve that flaw on the fly.  It's not a swing change to fix a hole in the strike zone - it's pitch recognition and being able to spit on offspeed stuff instead of swinging at it.  Sure, it's tougher to do that at the MLB level, but keep in mind Chourio is building his own mental book on how pitchers are attacking him, and the longer he's in MLB the more reliable that book becomes, too.  When he starts taking those pitches more consistently and pitchers find themselves having to attack him in the zone with pitches Chourio can predict, he'll do more damage consistently.

Not worried at all...

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

He's barely 20....TWENTY.

Braun was in college at twenty.  So was Weeks.  Fielder spent his full age 20 season in AA.

Color me unsurprised that a young hitter's weakness is offspeed low and away that breaks out of the strike zone.  Chourio simply hasn't seen enough of those pitches to make that adjustment in his approach to lay off them - but he's been so good otherwise that he's having to learn to solve that flaw on the fly.  It's not a swing change to fix a hole in the strike zone - it's pitch recognition and being able to spit on offspeed stuff instead of swinging at it.  Sure, it's tougher to do that at the MLB level, but keep in mind Chourio is building his own mental book on how pitchers are attacking him, and the longer he's in MLB the more reliable that book becomes, too.  When he starts taking those pitches more consistently and pitchers find themselves having to attack him in the zone with pitches Chourio can predict, he'll do more damage consistently.

Not worried at all...

Absolutely this. Zero concerns. None. Not a bit.

Though that doesn't conflict with the premise of this article; it's interesting to note how pitchers are dealing with Chourio and how he will need to adjust, not whether he can adjust.

[Samurai Bucky]

As a related side note, Jackson Holliday is only hitting .059,  

https://www.mlb.com/player/jackson-holliday-702616