It's Time To End The Jake Bauers Era

[Matt Breen]

I never understood the Brewers' embrace of Jake Bauers. The club traded for Bauers last November. Yes, they actually traded for him - not just picked him up off the waiver wire. Then, they signed him to a deal worth $1.35 million. So, what’s the appeal?

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

In four seasons (not including 2024), Jake Bauers has never had a higher batting average than .226. He has shown modest power (.361 slugging percentage), mediocre defense (at best), and a below-average hit tool. He has a .210 batting average on more than 1,400 at bats so we are not talking about a small sample size. The man likes to strike out (a lot) - as his career 28.2% k rate will attest to (his strikeout rate in 2023 was 34.1%). 

Does he do anything well? His 11% walk rate is pretty solid. He is mainly limited to 1B/DH, but he can play outfield corner if needed, just not very well. Anything else? He’s left-handed, which can be enticing to a lineup. 

So, why the appeal? Perhaps it was his one-time status as a top-100 prospect for Tampa. But even that isn’t that special. Bauers never hit more than 14 homers in a minor-league season. And his lifetime minor league OPS of .784 is good but nothing great. 

So again, why give the guy a major-league contract and a spot on the roster? 

Perhaps it was Bauers' electric performance at Triple-A in 2023. In 78 at-bats, he mashed 11 home runs and hit .359. I don’t care how old you are, that’s impressive. It netted Bauers a call to the majors, and he went on to spend half the season as the Yankees' first baseman and corner outfielder.

Unfortunately for Bauers, the success didn’t carry over to the big leagues. He hit a dozen home runs in 242 at-bats, but that went with a .202 batting average and inflated strikeout numbers. 

To put Bauers’ performance into perspective, according to FanGraphs, his 2023 fWAR as an outfielder ranked 126 out of 137 players with 250 or more plate appearances. As a first baseman, he was 42 out of 49 players.

In the end, the Brewers saw something in Bauers. Perhaps it was untapped potential - something four other teams have tried to unleash - and failed. And there’s the simple fact that he’s cheap. $1.35 million isn’t a lot of money in Major League Baseball. Giving guys like Bauers a shot seems to be a perennial thing for the front office. But the team rosters are littered with the likes of Luke Voit, Darren Ruf, Daniel Vogelbach, and Justin Smoak - sluggers on the cheap that the team was hoping to help emerge or recapture their glory years. 

So if not Bauers - who? Tyler Black could have opened the season in the 1B/DH spot. Or how about someone like Brandon Belt, who went unsigned this off-season despite an .858 OPS in 2023? Of course, that means we probably would have had to hold off signing someone else (such as Gary Sánchez). And Belt’s health is a concern. But there seem to have been other options than committing to Bauers from the get-go. 

Black's recent call-up might be a test run to see if he can replace Bauers. That shouldn’t be too hard. Bauers is hitting a paltry .197. His walk rate is the lowest of his career, and his K% rate is his highest ever—38.9 %. I think that pretty much says it all.

It’s time for the Jake Bauers era to be over.

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[Kripes - Brewers]

Ha! I don't even have to read the article to agree with you! But well done nonetheless. The front office clearly had marching orders to increase power. I'm ok with Sanchez as a bench bat - he's holding his own but shouldn't really be starting games except as DH. He's the prototypical bench bat/power DH. In 67 ABs, Bauers has 13 hits, 2 homers, 13 RBI and 5 walks vs 29 SOs. That's just a rally killer walking up to the plate.

[Brian]

So many players just can't make the jump from AAA to the big's and Mark A will rarely ever spend the money to get an uninjured high quality player. 

[brewmann04]

I agree time to move on never expected much and that what we got.

 

[sveumrules]

Bauers underperformed his expected StatCast numbers in 2023, guessing the Brewers FO saw him as someone due for positive regression.

Out of 362 batters with at least 200 PA last year, Bauers 18.7 Barrel% ranked 5th, with expected batting average and slugging marks of .230/.480 compared to actual marks of .202/.413.

Add it all up and his expected wOBA of .336 in 2023 was in the range of familiar names like the still unsigned Belt (.336), Justin Turner (.336), Teoscar Hernandez (.336), Manny Machado (.335), Willy Adames (.335), William Contreras (.335).

I’d keep Bauers around for now since neither of Rhys or Black are particularly adept with the leather. When Yelich is ready to return send Dunn down for regular PAs in Nashville.

[Matt Breen]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Bauers underperformed his expected StatCast numbers in 2023, guessing the Brewers FO saw him as someone due for positive regression.

Out of 362 batters with at least 200 PA last year, Bauers 18.7 Barrel% ranked 5th, with expected batting average and slugging marks of .230/.480 compared to actual marks of .202/.413.

Add it all up and his expected wOBA of .336 in 2023 was in the range of familiar names like the still unsigned Belt (.336), Justin Turner (.336), Teoscar Hernandez (.336), Manny Machado (.335), Willy Adames (.335), William Contreras (.335).

I’d keep Bauers around for now since neither of Rhys or Black are particularly adept with the leather. When Yelich is ready to return send Dunn down for regular PAs in Nashville.

Nice insights. Thank you.

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Brian said:

So many players just can't make the jump from AAA to the big's and Mark A will rarely ever spend the money to get an uninjured high quality player. 

 

[Trax]

I don't think our owner is a cheap ass.  I think he is a businessman playing in a very unfair field.

MLB should have a cap system similar to the NFL's.  Instead we have teams like the Dodgers and Yankees and Mets and several more who can never make a mistake that they can't buy themselves out of.  Bud Selig sat on the lap of the big city owners and bent over for the union.  Got rich doing it and invited to all the right parties he did.

It is what it is.

[Brian]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-mlb-market-size-isnt-an-excuse-for-cheap-teams-just-look-at-the-small-market-padres-and-manny-machado/

[jay87shot]

On one hand I am so ready to move on and try someone else, on the other I agree Dunn needs to go to AAA 1st and until Black starts playing well he can stay. I would say the thing that irratates me most is that Pat runs him in the 3 or 4 hole every time he starts, if he was hitting 7/8 I can live with a defensive upgrade style starter but a run producer he is not. Really over the past 2 years my biggest problem with our coaching is putting our lowest average players 3/4/5 in the lineup consistently.

[Trax]

2 hours ago, Brian said:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-mlb-market-size-isnt-an-excuse-for-cheap-teams-just-look-at-the-small-market-padres-and-manny-machado/

The holes in that article are endless.  Complete blither blather.  Sure billionaire owners could spend all they wanted if they so chose, but again, it's a business decision.  You look at contracts and revenue and you do what is right for business. not just dump undue amounts of money on the team.

Why do the big market teams?   Because they have that much more REVENUE.  The Angels make more money on just TV contracts, before selling one ticket or hot dog or parking space, than the Brewers do with ALL means of revenue.  How can we equalize that?  Only through a hard cap like what the NFL has.  With MLB it should be with a floor and a ceiling.

As far as player development the Brewers have done a great job. The difference is when the Dodgers can spend a BILLION on two players player development isn't as crucial to them as it is to us.  Teams like that can make mistake after mistake and buy their way out of it.  Small market teams can not.  The "revenue sharing" is a drop in the bucket and makes little difference.   

[Brian]

Well said, I just hope we can get at least one high quality player at the trade deadline. Yet I haven't even figured out what position of the nine I would focus on. Everything is so up in the air with all our injuries and who is to say when any of them come back they will even be able to even produce. 

[Matt Breen]

2 minutes ago, Brian said:

Well said, I just hope we can get at least one high quality player at the trade deadline. Yet I haven't even figured out what position of the nine I would focus on. Everything is so up in the air with all our injuries and who is to say when any of them come back they will even be able to even produce. 

This is so true. I mean, do you go after a pitcher? A 3B or 1B?

We have Hall, Bukauskas, Junis, and Megill on the DL. All could return at some point in the near future (or not). Other guys - such as Devin Williams - will be back in a couple of months.

As for hitters - what's Yelich's situation? And Mitchell? Do you wait and hope they make it back to fortify the OF?

Tough stuff. 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't blame them for trying but his time to shine has come and he isn't doing much with it. If he allowed Black enough time in the minors to get an extra year of service time (Did he? I don't know.) it might be worth the experiment but one that needs to end sooner than later.

[Underachiever]

2 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

This is so true. I mean, do you go after a pitcher? A 3B or 1B?

We have Hall, Bukauskas, Junis, and Megill on the DL. All could return at some point in the near future (or not). Other guys - such as Devin Williams - will be back in a couple of months.

As for hitters - what's Yelich's situation? And Mitchell? Do you wait and hope they make it back to fortify the OF?

Tough stuff. 

 

What happened to Megill? I don't see him on an injury list.

[Underachiever]

Where are people on Rhys Hoskins? I see his OPS+ is 117, which sounds good, but the eye test leaves me underwhelmed. I guess I had hopes of a mid 800 ops.

 

[Ro Mueller]

LHH Bauers - $1.35m - 78 OPS+ in 73 PAs

SH Toro - $1.28m - 133 OPS+ in 118 PAs

 

[biedergb]

And giving up Avina who is playing nicely in high A. Not saying he will amount to more but could have traded higher on a guy like him who came on in the second half. They also gave up on a 18 yo Venezuelan OF who is nothing more than a lottery ticket. But a 20-30 ranked prospect, and a lottery ticket should get you more than a back up 1B who is a LHH off the bench.

This is one of the few probable losing trades the team has made. (Trade Losses - the subject of A post I will put up sometime in the near future )

[Matt Breen]

5 hours ago, Underachiever said:

What happened to Megill? I don't see him on an injury list.

Brain fart. Sorry.

[Matt Breen]

17 hours ago, Underachiever said:

Where are people on Rhys Hoskins? I see his OPS+ is 117, which sounds good, but the eye test leaves me underwhelmed. I guess I had hopes of a mid 800 ops.

 

The power is there. The walk and K rates are good. I think that after a year off, people are willing to cut him some slack. But we shall see if that's the case come June and July.

Truth is that Hoskins was never that great. If you get .250 and 30 HR - that's great. As I said, the power is still there. But .219 and a .760 OPS isn't so hot. But it's not awful. Carlos Santana is hitting .188 or something like that. At least we aren't dealing with that.

Cross our fingers Hoskins starts to click and get back into the groove and improves.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't get the hate for Bauers.  His OPS+ of 92 is significantly higher than Dunn, Chourio and Frelick.  He's a defensive wizard at first base but still adequate in the corner outfield too.  I'd argue that their best lineup includes Bauers albeit down near the bottom.  He's certainly an upgrade over last year's and this year's version of Tellez

 

[Jake McKibbin]

 

Very small sample but worth keeping an eye on. Especially that chase rate

[sveumrules]

Bauers thru 04/24
49 PA | .508 OPS | 43 wRC+

Bauers 04/25 onward
35 PA | 1.062 OPS | 198 wRC+ 

Jake's recent heater has brought his season line up to 84 PA | 108 wRC+ | 0.2 WAR.

Obviously still super early on here, but thought it might be fun to see how that stacked up to some of the offseason 1B/DH options...

Jeimer Candelario
128 PA | 86 wRC+ | -0.1 WAR

Mitch Garver
132 PA | 86 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR

Jorge Soler
134 PA | 94 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR

JD Martinez
45 PA | 90 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR

Brandon Belt
FILE MISSING

Justin Turner
135 PA | 119 wRC+ | 0.2 WAR

Joc Pederson
108 PA | 172 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR

Eloy Jimenez
107 PA | 74 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR

Matt Chapman
161 PA | 69 wRC+ | -0.1 WAR

Outside of Joc's scorching start we're talking about fractions of WAR over less than 40 games separating most of these guys so it's really no big whoop either way at the end of the day, but it does do a nice job of illustrating how the Brewers are able to unearth similar production without paying free agent prices.
 

[Underachiever]

Up to .773 OPS. Great defense. Anybody want him cut anymore?