The Real Brewers Offense?

[beekay414]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

Perkins had a .323 xWOBA in April and currently has a .321 xwOBA in May. He had some batted ball luck in April and the opposite in May. His peripherals on the year remain very solid especially when you consider he's the best defensive OF on the team by a considerable margin.

Because he still draws walks, yes. You seem to take any slight against Perkins personally. Nothing about what I said was incorrect. His numbers from April 16th on, a more prolonged sample than his hot start (where he had a BABIP in the lower .400s), have aligned more with his 2023 numbers. He's fine for a 4th OF. Nothing I said was a slight to the kid. 

He's hitting .200 with a decent OBP since mid-April and a 91 wRC+ while striking out around 27% of the time and walking around 11% of the time. Basically lining up with his 2023 numbers. LIS, fine for a 4th OF. 

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Because he still draws walks, yes. You seem to take any slight against Perkins personally. Nothing about what I said was incorrect. His numbers from April 16th on, a more prolonged sample than his hot start (where he had a BABIP in the lower .400s), have aligned more with his 2023 numbers. He's fine for a 4th OF. Nothing I said was a slight to the kid. 

He's hitting .200 with a decent OBP since mid-April and a 91 wRC+ while striking out around 27% of the time and walking around 11% of the time. Basically lining up with his 2023 numbers. LIS, fine for a 4th OF. 

More just correcting you for saying something inaccurate. Perkins quality has been a much better hitter so far this season than last and you're just looking at surface numbers which can fluctuate significantly in small sample due to batted ball good/bad luck.

Here are some comparison of 2023 and 2024 Perkins. 

2023 then 2024 numbers

Barrel% - 5.1% to 9.5%

Avg EV - 85.8 to 90.0

xBA - .194 to .238

xSLG - .302 to .384

xwOBA - .279 to .323

xwOBACON - .312 to .376

Hard hit % - 29.3% to 47.3%

Perkins went 0-4 yesterday. Perkins had a 408ft flyout to CF that would have been a HR in 14 of 30 parks (wind was also blowing in slightly) and a 100.7 EV lineout to RF that had a .480 xBA. By your logic Perkins had a bad day at the plate because the wRC+ was bad when nobody would say Perkins had a bad day at the plate actually seeing the contact he made.

[beekay414]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

More just correcting you for saying something inaccurate. Perkins quality has been a much better hitter so far this season than last and you're just looking at surface numbers which can fluctuate significantly in small sample due to batted ball good/bad luck.

Here are some comparison of 2023 and 2024 Perkins. 

2023 then 2024 numbers

Barrel% - 5.1% to 9.5%

Avg EV - 85.8 to 90.0

xBA - .194 to .238

xSLG - .302 to .384

xwOBA - .279 to .323

xwOBACON - .312 to .376

Hard hit % - 29.3% to 47.3%

Perkins went 0-4 yesterday. Perkins had a 408ft flyout to CF that would have been a HR in 14 of 30 parks (wind was also blowing in slightly) and a 100.7 EV lineout to RF that had a .480 xBA. By your logic Perkins had a bad day at the plate because the wRC+ was bad when nobody would say Perkins had a bad day at the plate actually seeing the contact he made.

I've seen his statcast. There's been tradeoff to the quality of contact though. Correct me if I'm wrong here but he's putting the ball on the ground a ton more this year than last. His launch angle has been cut in half and his GB rate is near 60%. He's getting on top of the baseball a ton more too. 

I get it from the idea of playing into his speed but the ground game only works if you're not hitting it at people. Quality of contact doesn't matter if you're grounding out. That also plays into the batted ball luck. 

[wiguy94]

Just now, beekay414 said:

I've seen his statcast. There's been tradeoff to the quality of contact though. Correct me if I'm wrong here but he's putting the ball on the ground a ton more this year than last. His launch angle has been cut in half and his GB rate is near 60%. He's getting on top of the baseball a ton more too. 

I get it from the idea of playing into his speed but the ground game only works if you're not hitting it at people. Quality of contact doesn't matter if you're grounding out. That also plays into the batted ball luck. 

His overall contact quality is way up this season. From the comment you just quoted "xwOBACON - .312 to .376". That's a 64 point increase in xwOBACON. Nobody has said Perkins is going to be a 120 wRC+ hitter, but he's a much-improved hitter. His xwOBA would have him as a slightly above league average hitter. His DRC+ is up to 94 from 78 last year so that views him is a slightly below average hitter. Blake Perkins with his defense and a wRC+ near 100 is not a 4th OF. That's a starting CF.

[beekay414]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

His overall contact quality is way up this season. From the comment you just quoted "xwOBACON - .312 to .376". That's a 64 point increase in xwOBACON. Nobody has said Perkins is going to be a 120 wRC+ hitter, but he's a much-improved hitter. His xwOBA would have him as a slightly above league average hitter. His DRC+ is up to 94 from 78 last year so that views him is a slightly below average hitter. Blake Perkins with his defense and a wRC+ near 100 is not a 4th OF. That's a starting CF.

Yeah, you didn't care to take the context of what I wrote. You've got your mind made up either way. His ground ball rate is substantially higher than last year, he's topping the hell out of the baseball and his launch angle is halved. He's hitting the ball hard...on the ground. That's resulted in him hitting a whopping .200 from April 16th through May 8th in 87 PAs. If he was pissing on the baseball with a higher LD rate, I'd be all for it. But that's not what's happening here.

If you can't contextualize the analytics, they serve no purpose. 

[BruisedCrew]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Yes hitters production fluctuates. That's not a new phenomenon. You talking the lower end production and trying to push that this is who the offense really is pretty much comes down to you being a very open pessimist. The offense has been at worst above average this year. The season long xwOBA is .323 which is 13th in the MLB and 5 points above the .318 MLB average.

I understand that production fluctuates over the course of the season, but I think that a team scoring about a third of its runs (58 of 177) in 6 consecutive games that make up a sixth of its 36 games is quite extreme and skews the season long numbers..

And yes, I realize that Yelich was out for 3 weeks, but I also note that he contributed nothing to the scoring in the 3 highest scoring games in that 6 game stretch. He had an off day for the first game, left with the injury after one AB in the fifth game, and was out for the sixth game. 

I'm not trying to "push" that the offense of the last 3 weeks is "who the offense really is". But, I think there is a legitimate question about what the offense really is like and will be like as the season moves along. If you disagree with that, that's your prerogative. 

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Yeah, you didn't care to take the context of what I wrote. You've got your mind made up either way. His ground ball rate is substantially higher than last year, he's topping the hell out of the baseball and his launch angle is halved. He's hitting the ball hard...on the ground. That's resulted in him hitting a whopping .200 from April 16th through May 8th in 87 PAs. If he was pissing on the baseball with a higher LD rate, I'd be all for it. But that's not what's happening here.

If you can't contextualize the analytics, they serve no purpose. 

Hitting the baseball on the ground isn't bad. Like you realize that ground balls have a higher average batting average than fly balls right so citing the batting average is pretty strange. Nobody said Perkins start of the year was sustainable. You're the only one who is saying Perkins small samples are indicative of future success with his bad luck. His quality contact is up. That can't be argued. Trading out weak contact for hard ground balls isn't quality of contact drop off. It's clear you really just don't understand this side of baseball. Perkins lowering his launch angle wasn't a bad thing. He doesn't have the power to pay off a heavy fly ball profile especially because he's not a big pull hitter (before this year that is). One size doesn't fit all so saying Perkins is a worse hitter because his LA has dropped is a fundamental misunderstanding modern analytics.

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Hitting the baseball on the ground isn't bad. Like you realize that ground balls have a higher average batting average than fly balls right so citing the batting average is pretty strange. Nobody said Perkins start of the year was sustainable. You're the only one who is saying Perkins small samples are indicative of future success with his bad luck. His quality contact is up. That can't be argued. Trading out weak contact for hard ground balls isn't quality of contact drop off. It's clear you really just don't understand this side of baseball. Perkins lowering his launch angle wasn't a bad thing. He doesn't have the power to pay off a heavy fly ball profile especially because he's not a big pull hitter (before this year that is). One size doesn't fit all so saying Perkins is a worse hitter because his LA has dropped is a fundamental misunderstanding modern analytics.

In 2023, 33% of Perkins batted balls had a negative launch angle. In 2024 37% of Perkins batted balls have a negative launch angle. Yes Perkins ground ball % is significantly up this year, but most of those added ground balls are positive launch angle ground balls which carry significantly higher success rates than the negative LA ones. Perkins also isn't hitting fewer line drives. He's hitting fewer lazy fly balls and more ground balls. That's not a bad tradeoff and that's why his xwOBACON has improved.

[beekay414]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

Hitting the baseball on the ground isn't bad. Like you realize that ground balls have a higher average batting average than fly balls right so citing the batting average is pretty strange. Nobody said Perkins start of the year was sustainable. You're the only one who is saying Perkins small samples are indicative of future success with his bad luck. His quality contact is up. That can't be argued. Trading out weak contact for hard ground balls isn't quality of contact drop off. It's clear you really just don't understand this side of baseball.

Yeah, you're right. I don't know baseball. Have a good day, bud. 

[beekay414]

21 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

One size doesn't fit all so saying Perkins is a worse hitter because his LA has dropped is a fundamental misunderstanding modern analytics.

Oh man, now you're just making stuff up for S&Gs. None of this was said and you're making all this up in your head. At least now I know who not to discuss topics with on this site when I do come around. 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, beekay414 said:

Oh man, now you're just making stuff up for S&Gs. None of this was said and you're making all this up in your head. At least now I know who not to discuss topics with on this site when I do come around. 

This is a direct quote from you "His ground ball rate is substantially higher than last year, he's topping the hell out of the baseball and his launch angle is halved" You literally mentioned his launch angle being significantly lower as a negative point towards his contact quality. His line drive % is the exact same as last year. He's traded off weak fly balls/pop ups for mostly positive LA ground balls. 

2023 - 29 of his 99 batted balls had a LA of 33 or higher and 33 of his 99 batted balls had a negative LA. That's 62 of his 99 batted balls hit with really poor LA. 62% of his batted balls.

2024 - 8 of his 74 batted balls have a LA of 33 or higher and 28 of his 74 batted balls have a negative LA. That's 36 of his 74 batted balls hit with really poor LA. 49% of his batted balls.

Yes Blake Perkins LA is down mostly because he's not hitting a bunch of worthless lazy fly balls like last year. Yes his ground ball % is up this year but a significant portion of that increase is positive LA grounders. His overall contact quality has improved and the 64 point xwOBACON increase shows that. Yes he's topping the baseball more, but he hasn't sacrificed good contact in that process as his solid contact is marginally up and his barrel rate is significantly up.

Looking at raw LA and raw GB% and saying his contact he's worse is just not how it works.

[sveumrules]

Just showed on the postgame show tonight was the Brewers MLB best 13th game with seven plus runs scored.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Just showed on the postgame show tonight was the Brewers MLB best 13th game with seven plus runs scored.

I just saw that, too. The significance of that can be argued of course, but I found it interesting.

In fact, I think you should start a thread about that very fact. I'm sure the ensuing conversation would be fantastic.😉

[BruisedCrew]

10 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I just saw that, too. The significance of that can be argued of course, but I found it interesting.

In fact, I think you should start a thread about that very fact. I'm sure the ensuing conversation would be fantastic.😉

It could be interesting to discuss this fact, both from the standpoint of what it says about the Brewers offense and the general subject of how a team's runs are distributed across games

[sveumrules]

51 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

It could be interesting to discuss this fact, both from the standpoint of what it says about the Brewers offense and the general subject of how a team's runs are distributed across games

Over such a small sample there is still bound to be a bunch of noise in something like distribution of runs per game, but using the run support splits on BRef here is how the Brewers have stacked up among the five NL clubs with winning records to this point…

MIL
0-2 R: 8
3-5 R: 14
6+ R: 15

CHI
0-2 R: 10
3-5 R: 16
6+ R: 12

LAD
0-2 R: 5
3-5 R: 18
6+ R: 16

ATL
0-2 R: 7
3-5 R: 14
6+ R: 13

PHI
0-2 R: 8
3-5 R: 18
6+ R: 12

[kestrel79]

Maybe it's just me being positive, but maybe the "real" Brewers offense is last night, with Yelich in there mashing. It really makes a difference wow.

[BruisedCrew]

15 minutes ago, kestrel79 said:

Maybe it's just me being positive, but maybe the "real" Brewers offense is last night, with Yelich in there mashing. It really makes a difference wow.

We can hope. 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Over such a small sample there is still bound to be a bunch of noise in something like distribution of runs per game, but using the run support splits on BRef here is how the Brewers have stacked up among the five NL clubs with winning records to this point…

MIL
0-2 R: 8
3-5 R: 14
6+ R: 15

CHI
0-2 R: 10
3-5 R: 16
6+ R: 12

LAD
0-2 R: 5
3-5 R: 18
6+ R: 16

ATL
0-2 R: 7
3-5 R: 14
6+ R: 13

PHI
0-2 R: 8
3-5 R: 18
6+ R: 12

Thanks for this.

I'm curious exactly where you went on BR for the run support splits. They used to have handy scoring charts that showed for each team, and for the leagues as a whole, both the number of times they scored (and allowed) a certain number of runs and the W-L records when scoring that many runs. Those went away last year.

Before I saw your post I took a swipe at this and sliced it a little differently. For one thing I set the lowest bucket at 0-3 runs because I have always considered these "low scoring games". This was based on the BR tables and win probabilities that showed 4 runs as the point at which the win probability reached 50%. Then, because this started with a fact about scoring 7+ runs, I set that as the high run bucket with 4-6 runs as the middle bucket.

Using the game by game results on BR and sorting by runs scored I came up with these numbers for the 7 NL teams that are currently scoring above the league average. As things stand now these 7 teams are the leading contenders for the 6 NL playoff spots. Here they are in order of total runs scored with the High/middle/low bucket numbers:

LAD  12   19   7

ATL 8   17   9

PHIL  11   16   11

AZ     8   15   15

MIL    13   7   17

SD      9   13   18

CHI    10   10   18

I made a statement on a thread a week or two ago that the Brewers run distribution graph looks more like a dumbbell than the expected bell curve with a tail to the right, and these numbers bear that out.

While having the most games scoring 7 or more runs (and several more than some of the teams) they have a strikingly low number in the 4-6 range that I would expect to be higher, and is higher for the top scoring teams (Dodgers, Braves, Phillies). What makes those teams great is not so much having a lot of high scoring games as avoiding too many low scoring games.

The numbers for the DBacks, Padres, and Cubs are more similar to the Brewers, especially in the low bucket.

 

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I'm curious exactly where you went on BR for the run support splits. They used to have handy scoring charts that showed for each team, and for the leagues as a whole, both the number of times they scored (and allowed) a certain number of runs and the W-L records when scoring that many runs. Those went away last year.

This is the link to the Brewers pitching splits I used. Run support is like a dozen headers down. Then I just subbed out the three letter team acronym in the URL to jump around to LAD, CHC, ATL and PHI.

Think they moved all those charts over to their pay StatHead site whenever they disappeared.

[BruisedCrew]

In keeping with the theme of this thread (at least the part that doesn't discuss Blake Perkins), i do point out that 7 of the Brewers 13 games with 7 or more runs came in that hot stretch to start the season, including 6 straight in games 8-13. In those games they also had games of 4 and 6 runs and 4 with 3 runs.

So, in their last 24 games they have had 6 games of 7+, 5 of 4-6 4uns, and a whopping 13 (Just over half) in the 0-3 bucket.

I raise this merely as a statement of fact and not to push any opinion that the Brewers are going to continue at this pace for the rest of the season. Hopefully  with Yelich back in the lineup the Brewers can start putting up more runs again.

[BruisedCrew]

7 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

This is the link to the Brewers pitching splits I used. Run support is like a dozen headers down. Then I just subbed out the three letter team acronym in the URL to jump around to LAD, CHC, ATL and PHI.

Think they moved all those charts over to their pay StatHead site whenever they disappeared.

I actually tried a free trial at Stathead last year and the charts aren't there. I sent a message to their customer support and they confirmed that they weren't there. There are ways you could get the data for one team by doing a convoluted sort request, but I wasn't going to pay for the "right" to do that.

[Jim French Stepstool]

And here I was trying to be funny. Sveumrules & Bruised, lots of nice data there. Thanks for digging.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, kestrel79 said:

Maybe it's just me being positive, but maybe the "real" Brewers offense is last night, with Yelich in there mashing. It really makes a difference wow.

The top one-third of the order looks really formidable (waiting to see what it looks like vs a LH starter). As long as Hoskins can do Hoskins things & Adames retains some semblance of the AB quality he's shown in the first 37 games--I'm not thrilled with his work the last two nights, but small sample to be sure--they'll give people problems.

[igor67]

Turang at the top just looks so good now, not just for the offense in general but with Contreras and Yelich behind him he'll keep getting pitches to hit and seems to have found a way to make the pitchers pay whether it is doubles into the gap or slapping singles and stealing bases. Adames and Hoskins slugging looks real good for sure. I'd probably opt for Ortiz 6th at this point and Perkins 9th to try and take advantage of the OBP, and hope that takes some pressure off whoever we are shuffling in the 7 and 8 spots on any given day.

[Underachiever]

"Cool story, bro" alert. Feel free to skip this. I started playing competitive Scrabble Tournaments, also playing many games a day against the computer to improve, studying word lists. I have managed to suck all of the joy out of something that was a pleasant diversion. I like the analytics in baseball, but man, I like it more when the Brewers just win. We can agonize how they got there and discuss how sustainable it all is, but they are in first place. Willy A's homer to beat KC was so exciting, and going to AmFam and watching that beatdown last night are why I watch baseball. Two different games, one where they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, and a total beatdown against the hated STL team.

I'm ready to buy a Gasser jersey.