The Real Brewers Offense?

[markedman5]

Update

 

[Playing Catch]

On 5/10/2024 at 1:10 PM, BruisedCrew said:

Thanks for this.

I'm curious exactly where you went on BR for the run support splits. They used to have handy scoring charts that showed for each team, and for the leagues as a whole, both the number of times they scored (and allowed) a certain number of runs and the W-L records when scoring that many runs. Those went away last year.

Before I saw your post I took a swipe at this and sliced it a little differently. For one thing I set the lowest bucket at 0-3 runs because I have always considered these "low scoring games". This was based on the BR tables and win probabilities that showed 4 runs as the point at which the win probability reached 50%. Then, because this started with a fact about scoring 7+ runs, I set that as the high run bucket with 4-6 runs as the middle bucket.

Using the game by game results on BR and sorting by runs scored I came up with these numbers for the 7 NL teams that are currently scoring above the league average. As things stand now these 7 teams are the leading contenders for the 6 NL playoff spots. Here they are in order of total runs scored with the High/middle/low bucket numbers:

LAD  12   19   7

ATL 8   17   9

PHIL  11   16   11

AZ     8   15   15

MIL    13   7   17

SD      9   13   18

CHI    10   10   18

I made a statement on a thread a week or two ago that the Brewers run distribution graph looks more like a dumbbell than the expected bell curve with a tail to the right, and these numbers bear that out.

While having the most games scoring 7 or more runs (and several more than some of the teams) they have a strikingly low number in the 4-6 range that I would expect to be higher, and is higher for the top scoring teams (Dodgers, Braves, Phillies). What makes those teams great is not so much having a lot of high scoring games as avoiding too many low scoring games.

The numbers for the DBacks, Padres, and Cubs are more similar to the Brewers, especially in the low bucket.

 

Makes me wonder if the Brewers style of play (BIP, Baserunning, speed), lends itself to big games here and there because the opposing run-prevention unit just can't deal with SBs, lack of double-plays, etc.

I, for one, would love it if teams could win in different ways in MLB. It would create more fun-drama with matchups.

[sveumrules]

Over the nine games since this thread was posted the Brewers have posted a 147 wRC+ (2nd in MLB) and scored 56 runs (1st in MLB).

Not sure if that was the intended effect, but it worked anyway.

[BruisedCrew]

I didn't have any intention but to raise some facts and pose a question. 

With 4 1/2 months still left in the season I don't think 9 games provides an answer.

[Brian]

Top 10 Power Rankings:

1) Orioles

2) Phillies

3) Dodgers

4) Braves

5) Yankees

6) Brewers

7) Guardians

8) Twins

9) Cubs

10) Royals

 

[jay87shot]

With a 1-3 of Turang, Contreras, Yeli we should be a solid run producing team most of the year. I expect Ortiz and Frelick to provide consistency towards the mid to bottom of the order and then the big streaky bats of Rhys, Willy, and Chourio will create some of the volatility we have seen.