Pirates (Keller) vs Brewers (Rea): 5/13/24, 6:40pm

[Bulldogboy]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Yes, they almost won the game.

A contributing factor to them almost winning the game was Monasterio walking in both his PAs. His +.126 WPA was literally the highest on the team last night.

The move wasn’t made “just for kicks”, it was made because Murph thought Monasterio pinch hitting for Turang in that spot gave them their best chance to come back in the game…and he was right.

If Turang can’t handle being pinch hit for late in a blowout, well that sounds like he just needs to put on the Big Boy Pants ™

So if that's the case by your account then Turang is a platoon guy who should not be wasting ab against lefties. Why isn't Monteserio starting against lefties every day?Why is Turang ok to hit against them until we need a big comeback then we call for our on base guy? Stop it. Nonsense. 

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, Bulldogboy said:

So if that's the case by your account then Turang is a platoon guy who should not be wasting ab against lefties. Why isn't Monteserio starting against lefties every day?Why is Turang ok to hit against them until we need a big comeback then we call for our on base guy? Stop it. Nonsense. 

I never said Turang is a platoon guy who should not be wasting AB against lefties, I try to stay away from bi-modal thinking and hyperbole.

You said the move was made “just for kicks” so I explained what I believed to be the reasoning behind it and pointed out that subbing in Monasterio (team best +.126 WPA) helped facilitate the improbable comeback (2.8% Win Probability when he entered) in the first place.

[Team Canada]

2 hours ago, Bulldogboy said:

Stop it. Nonsense. 

That's not the way to have a discussion on this forum. 

[Bulldogboy]

12 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

That's not the way to have a discussion on this forum. 

You have to be joking 🙃 

[Bulldogboy]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

I never said Turang is a platoon guy who should not be wasting AB against lefties, I try to stay away from bi-modal thinking and hyperbole.

You said the move was made “just for kicks” so I explained what I believed to be the reasoning behind it and pointed out that subbing in Monasterio (team best +.126 WPA) helped facilitate the improbable comeback (2.8% Win Probability when he entered) in the first place.

Ok. So to recap Murphy saw we were down 5 runs and needed a spark in order to perhaps make a comeback so he pinch hit his third best hitter season to date in order to get on base machine Monteserio up to have best chance in that situation and because he walked twice Murphy made the right call because Turang would have not been able to do this if given similar opportunities. Ok. I got it. Murphy is the new Billy Martin. Simple question if Monteserio is the best option against a lefty in the 7th inning why not in the first??Why are we waiting until the 7th to unleash our best case scenario? Also who on this team do we trust to play every day regardless of pitcher. Yelich Adames and Contreras that's it?

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Ok. So to recap Murphy saw we were down 5 runs and needed a spark in order to perhaps make a comeback so he pinch hit his third best hitter season to date in order to get on base machine Monteserio up to have best chance in that situation and because he walked twice Murphy made the right call because Turang would have not been able to do this if given similar opportunities. Ok. I got it. Murphy is the new Billy Martin. 

The odds of Turang bettering Monasterios’s 1.000 OPS over those two PAs is extremely low.

Even if Brice stays in and homers both times for a 5.000 OPS, the Brewers still lose 8-7.

[Bulldogboy]

So why don't we just start Monteserio against lefties? I still don't think you have answered my question. Why in the 7th and not just all game? We are trying to win right?

[Sixtolezcano]

14 hours ago, BCF said:

The Brewers are without their top reliever, #2 and #4 starters, Uribe has struggled and in AAA they were without Yelich for multiple weeks and Mitchell all year. Yet they are 7 games over .500 

So are you saying most credit of this success should go to Murphy’s decision making abilities and strategy rather than player performance? What about Arnold’s player acquisition? Hmmm not too clear!

[Sixtolezcano]

14 hours ago, Brian said:

Starters are on a rotation so that makes no sense. 

Pulling starters early or leaving them in too long?

[BruisedCrew]

24 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

So why don't we just start Monteserio against lefties? I still don't think you have answered my question. Why in the 7th and not just all game? We are trying to win right?

 

3 hours ago, Bulldogboy said:

So if that's the case by your account then Turang is a platoon guy who should not be wasting ab against lefties. Why isn't Monteserio starting against lefties every day?Why is Turang ok to hit against them until we need a big comeback then we call for our on base guy? Stop it. Nonsense. 

The Brewers haven’t faced many LH starters this season, but for his career Turang has been less effective against LHP than RHP. So, for one isolated AB, Monasterio arguably has a better chance of getting on base and starting a rally than Turang. 

To start the game the analysis is significantly different. For one very important thing, Turang is an elite defender at an important position, something Monasterio is not. Having that elite defender might easily be more important than a relatively small difference in ability to get on base. 

But, once the team finds itself 5 or 6 runs behind, the importance of defense falls away and getting base runners  takes precedence  

If you want you can quibble about pinch hitting for Turang at that stage of the game. But, IMHO, doing it when behind by 5 runs does not logically lead to the conclusion that Monasterio should start over Turang against left handed starters. I think the game situation significantly changes the analysis. 

[Bulldogboy]

15 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

 

The Brewers haven’t faced many LH starters this season, but for his career Turang has been less effective against LHP than RHP. So, for one isolated AB, Monasterio arguably has a better chance of getting on base and starting a rally than Turang. 

To start the game the analysis is significantly different. For one very important thing, Turang is an elite defender at an important position, something Monasterio is not. Having that elite defender might easily be more important than a relatively small difference in ability to get on base. 

But, once the team finds itself 5 or 6 runs behind, the importance of defense falls away and getting base runners  takes precedence  

If you want you can quibble about pinch hitting for Turang at that stage of the game. But, IMHO, doing it when behind by 5 runs does not logically lead to the conclusion that Monasterio should start over Turang against left handed starters. I think the game situation significantly changes the analysis. 

My point is he said Murphy did it because he gave us the best chance to win the game. That makes zero sense because if true Monteserio would be playing all the time especially against lefties. Just say he thought the game was basically over so he put the bench in. Don't try to make it out that Murphy is this strategic genius.

[BruisedCrew]

15 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

My point is he said Murphy did it because he gave us the best chance to win the game. That makes zero sense because if true Monteserio would be playing all the time especially against lefties. Just say he thought the game was basically over so he put the bench in. Don't try to make it out that Murphy is this strategic genius.

I’m not saying that Murphy is a strategic genius. 

I am saying that there was a reason for pinch hitting in that situation that doesn’t lead to the conclusion that Monasterio should be starting over Turang against lefties. 

 

[Brian]

39 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Pulling starters early or leaving them in too long?

What kind of question is that? It depends on about 20 different things like.

Score, inning, pitch count, walks, availability of another pitcher, batter, rest etc.

I know the MLB changed a rule because of Counsell changing pitchers to often. Now the pitcher has to face 3 hitters. 

[Sixtolezcano]

3 hours ago, Brian said:

What kind of question is that? It depends on about 20 different things like.

Score, inning, pitch count, walks, availability of another pitcher, batter, rest etc.

I know the MLB changed a rule because of Counsell changing pitchers to often. Now the pitcher has to face 3 hitters. 

A very simple question that is easy to answer. There has been at least 5 situations where he left a struggling starter in longer than he should have which blew up on him. Or several times selecting  a relief pitcher that was a mistake (just like last night picking Viera who gave up 4 runs in a critical situation he never should never have been in and choosing Payamps in the 9th who gave up a critical run, although less a problem, but he had better options available). 

[Brian]

5 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

A very simple question that is easy to answer. There has been at least 5 situations where he left a struggling starter in longer than he should have which blew up on him. Or several times selecting  a relief pitcher that was a mistake (just like last night picking Viera who gave up 4 runs in a critical situation he never should never have been in and choosing Payamps in the 9th who gave up a critical run, although less a problem, but he had better options available). 

Like I said, tomorrow will be the 14th game in a row and you have to try to get all you can out of your pitchers in a stretch like that. You also have to let a pitcher get threw some things to see who you can count on in high stress situations. According to you, in your post above you would be switching pitchers all the time which won't work either because you will eventually choose a pitcher on an off day and that occasionally backfires also.

Brewers are in 1st place by 1  1/2 games with a bunch of injuries and I think we are doing pretty well with not a very big payroll. Personally I like the way Murphy does things better than Counsell did.