Matt Arnold Deadline Predictions!

[Scooterfletcher]

Ten days from the deadline so time for a fun thread!

Doubtful what we end up doing leaks in the media.  Let’s make deadline predictions!

What trades do you predict we make and for who?

[Scooterfletcher]

I’ll start,

Kikuchi and Bassitt for Black and Blalock

Kopech and Fedde for Wiemer, Patrick, E Brown

 

[wibadgers23]

I do think Black gets traded before the deadline and Toronto certainly makes a lot of sense.

[wallus]

8 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

I do think Black gets traded before the deadline and Toronto certainly makes a lot of sense.

Black shouldn't be traded for a rental (Kikuchi) and I don't know what else Toronto has available that would make sense for our roster.

[Madhawk23]

What do we know about Fedde and the changes that he's made this season?  When I look at his career numbers, it's very clear that one season is a complete anomaly - and that's this year where he's had a ton of success.  Since a team would be trading for 1.5 years of this guy (which also means more going back to the Sox in prospect capital), I think I'd want to feel REALLY good that Fedde has made some big changes to something in his pitching - whether it's more of a delivery change or perhaps his pitch-mix.  Otherwise, you don't want to trade away a couple of good prospects for this guy, and watch him immediately go back to the 5+ ERA guy he was the first 4-5 years of his big league career.  

[sveumrules]

14 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

What do we know about Fedde and the changes that he's made this season?  When I look at his career numbers, it's very clear that one season is a complete anomaly - and that's this year where he's had a ton of success.  Since a team would be trading for 1.5 years of this guy (which also means more going back to the Sox in prospect capital), I think I'd want to feel REALLY good that Fedde has made some big changes to something in his pitching - whether it's more of a delivery change or perhaps his pitch-mix.  Otherwise, you don't want to trade away a couple of good prospects for this guy, and watch him immediately go back to the 5+ ERA guy he was the first 4-5 years of his big league career.  

Pretty good breakdown at FanGraphs from when he originally signed with the White Sox after winning MVP and Cy Young in Korea last year.

Long story short, "Fedde went to Push Athletic in Scottsdale and remade his body, mechanics, and the shape of his three most-used pitches." and "Perhaps the biggest leap in Fedde’s skill set is evident in his command. His 2023 walk rate with the Dinos (4.9%) was roughly half his MLB career walk rate with Washington."

[Madhawk23]

17 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Pretty good breakdown at FanGraphs from when he originally signed with the White Sox after winning MVP and Cy Young in Korea last year.

Long story short, "Fedde went to Push Athletic in Scottsdale and remade his body, mechanics, and the shape of his three most-used pitches." and "Perhaps the biggest leap in Fedde’s skill set is evident in his command. His 2023 walk rate with the Dinos (4.9%) was roughly half his MLB career walk rate with Washington."

Good stuff....thanks for posting.  I had completely forgot that Fedde was the one that went to Korea and had great success over there for a year.  Clearly, he has remade his entire pitching mechanics and pitches.  

So, what do we think it would realistically take to get him?  With as high as the demand is this year again for SP at the deadline, I don't think it's realistic that a package of Wiemer, Patrick and EBJ will get it done (not to mention, Kopech in the deal as well).  For a year and a half of Fedde (and a relatively cheap contract), I think it's probably going to take something like Black and Wichrowski.  That's a Top 50-75 prospect in all of baseball, and a Top 10-15 prospect in our system going back to the Sox in this deal.  Boy, that feels like a lot to give up for a year and a half of Fedde, but I fear that's what it would probably take for us to beat out other offers from other contending teams (we've already heard the Cards are interested in him).  

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

Good stuff....thanks for posting.  I had completely forgot that Fedde was the one that went to Korea and had great success over there for a year.  Clearly, he has remade his entire pitching mechanics and pitches.  

So, what do we think it would realistically take to get him?  With as high as the demand is this year again for SP at the deadline, I don't think it's realistic that a package of Wiemer, Patrick and EBJ will get it done (not to mention, Kopech in the deal as well).  For a year and a half of Fedde (and a relatively cheap contract), I think it's probably going to take something like Black and Wichrowski.  That's a Top 50-75 prospect in all of baseball, and a Top 10-15 prospect in our system going back to the Sox in this deal.  Boy, that feels like a lot to give up for a year and a half of Fedde, but I fear that's what it would probably take for us to beat out other offers from other contending teams (we've already heard the Cards are interested in him).  

Yeah, I think Black plus somebody in that 10-15 range is the likely ask for Fedde. It would hurt for sure, but if the Brewers view Black as being limited to 1B/DH that puts a lot more pressure on his bat to carry the profile. White Sox would also be better positioned to try him out at 3B/2B/OF.

Would prefer something like a Boeve/Lara co-headliner, but that offer probably gets beaten pretty easily with how much competition there will be for SP at the deadline.

[Madhawk23]

1 minute ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, I think Black plus somebody in that 10-15 range is the likely ask for Fedde. It would hurt for sure, but if the Brewers view Black as being limited to 1B/DH that puts a lot more pressure on his bat to carry the profile. White Sox would also be better positioned to try him out at 3B/2B/OF.

Would prefer something like a Boeve/Lara co-headliner, but that offer probably gets beaten pretty easily with how much competition there will be for SP at the deadline.

I agree with you - would much prefer Boeve or Lara going back to the Sox as the headliner in the deal, but I too think that gets beat out then from another team's offer.  

As you said though, Black is just a guy without a position for us right now.  He could certainly fill in at 1B next year if Hoskins moves on, but you'd then be sacrificing some power at the 1B position - when you'd already be losing a lot of power with the departure of Adames at SS next year.  On top of that, I think the organization is now really counting on Blake Burke being the 1B of the future, so I don't know if Black would have much of a future there beyond just next season (assuming of course that Burke pans out).  

[Lloyd330]

Does Frelick/Black/Rodrquez/Boeve get you Robert/Fedde?

[sveumrules]

9 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

Does Frelick/Black/Rodrquez/Boeve get you Robert/Fedde?

I don't see the White Sox having much interest in Frelick as a headliner since he is already coming up on one year of service time under his belt and is more of a high floor/low ceiling kind of player.

I'd guess the Brewers would need to offer two of Misio/Quero/Pratt to get the White Sox seriously listening on Robert.

[Mr Southpaw]

Jesus Luzardo for Eric Brown Jr and Chad Patrick, and a MLB reliever who is not in the top four.  

[jay87shot]

Hoby and Perkins to Seattle for Emerson Hancock and P Tyler Gough

We get a young starter with control who could help this year and beyond the M's the M's get an OF upgrade in the OF and a needed lefty in the pen. There is a good win-win deal to be had 

Wes Clarke and Patricio Aquino for AJ Puk

Maybe I am underestimating Puks value and I need to upgrade the prospects. Puk has been wonderful as a reliever, the M's get two borderline top 30 prospects for him. On top of that we have been great with giant pitchers. I really want a back-end of a bullpen with Megill, Hudson, Puk, Koenig that we can call like the Giant Slayers or something like that.

Juan Baez, Bradley Blalock for Tyler Anderson (Angels pay a couple million of Anderson salary next year)

I know his advanced stats say he is worse than his base stats. Anderson can give us a Wade Miley type that just gets it done. The Angels get 2 solid prospects for Anderson. Maybe add a 3rd piece like Justin Yeager or Harold Chirino if it isn't quite enough (better prospect if they eat more of contract).

Basically we get 3 high upside lefties with control, we give up a bunch of talent but no top 15 prospects. Better long term and short term.

[Scooterfletcher]

4 hours ago, Lloyd330 said:

Does Frelick/Black/Rodrquez/Boeve get you Robert/Fedde?

Lets just drop both Robert and Fedde and get crochet with that deal 

[Scooterfletcher]

I’m interested in people’s proposals for Kikuchi And Bassett, as I feel they both can be had in the same deal possibly…

[Scooterfletcher]

5 hours ago, Lloyd330 said:

Does Frelick/Black/Rodrquez/Boeve get you Robert/Fedde?

And do you really want to give up those four for Robert and Fedde, man?   That’s too much I think for this years squad.   I’d rather find a different deal.

[Madhawk23]

1 hour ago, Mr Southpaw said:

Jesus Luzardo for Eric Brown Jr and Chad Patrick, and a MLB reliever who is not in the top four.  

What? In what world would the Marlins do this deal?

[Scooterfletcher]

45 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

What? In what world would the Marlins do this deal?

True.  Not happening.  Add Boeve or Wilken and maybe but still prob not.

[Madhawk23]

This is obviously a moot point right now, since Luzardo is injured.  But, if he had been healthy right now and on the market (as most expected he probably would have been), I'm guessing it would have taken this type of a package to get him:

Mitchell or Frelick

Quero

Henderson or Wichrowski

[brewcrewdue80]

Eric Brown is the new Corey Ray.  No hit, no power failed 1st rd pick.  You can send a bag of balls with him for a team to take him.

Black is the new Hiura. No defensive position to play at.

21 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Hoby and Perkins to Seattle for Emerson Hancock and P Tyler Gough

We get a young starter with control who could help this year and beyond the M's the M's get an OF upgrade in the OF and a needed lefty in the pen. There is a good win-win deal to be had 

Wes Clarke and Patricio Aquino for AJ Puk

Maybe I am underestimating Puks value and I need to upgrade the prospects. Puk has been wonderful as a reliever, the M's get two borderline top 30 prospects for him. On top of that we have been great with giant pitchers. I really want a back-end of a bullpen with Megill, Hudson, Puk, Koenig that we can call like the Giant Slayers or something like that.

Juan Baez, Bradley Blalock for Tyler Anderson (Angels pay a couple million of Anderson salary next year)

I know his advanced stats say he is worse than his base stats. Anderson can give us a Wade Miley type that just gets it done. The Angels get 2 solid prospects for Anderson. Maybe add a 3rd piece like Justin Yeager or Harold Chirino if it isn't quite enough (better prospect if they eat more of contract).

Basically we get 3 high upside lefties with control, we give up a bunch of talent but no top 15 prospects. Better long term and short term.

No team is taking Perkins til after the season. Hoby? Yes dump the trash for a cost controlled SP? How soon should that GM be fired?

The other 2 proposals are fair. Easily beat but fair.  

Devin Williams returning is like trading for somebody in itself. Even DL Hall can be a RP addition.

 

[sveumrules]

51 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Eric Brown is the new Corey Ray.  No hit, no power failed 1st rd pick.

Corey Ray got $4.8M to sign as the #5 overall pick in 2016

EBJ got $2.05M to sign as the #27 overall pick in 2022.

They were both 1st round picks, sure, but there’s a big difference between $4.8M at #5 eight years ago and $2.05M at #27 two years ago.

Also might be a little early to write off EBJ with him posting a 120 wRC+ over his last 130 PA as he gets farther away from the injury that knocked him out earlier this year.

51 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Black is the new Hiura. No defensive position to play at.

Black has posted a 15.4 BB% | 18.0 K% and 86 SB / 23 CS in his minor league career.

Hiura has posted an 8.9 BB% | 24.3 K% and 26 SB / 21 CS in his minor league career.

Neither can field, true, but Tyler has a massive edge in plate approach and base running over Keston.

[TURBO]

On 7/22/2024 at 2:41 PM, sveumrules said:

 

Would prefer something like a Boeve/Lara co-headliner, but that offer probably gets beaten pretty easily with how much competition there will be for SP at the deadline.

Gross

[yfinn6]

Pete Alonso is on the last year of arbitration, correct? Likely to sign a decent contract? I know he's having a bit of a "down" year but would be curious to know if the Brewers are kicking tires. 

No way would I want to part with a serious prospect for him, so likely means it would never happen. Who knows if the Mets think they're still competing, too. 

[TURBO]

On 7/22/2024 at 8:31 PM, Madhawk23 said:

What? In what world would the Marlins do this deal?

What has Luzardo done for people to still think he is this untouchable ace?

I'm not seeing it.

[Jim French Stepstool]

5 hours ago, yfinn6 said:

Pete Alonso is on the last year of arbitration, correct? Likely to sign a decent contract? I know he's having a bit of a "down" year but would be curious to know if the Brewers are kicking tires. 

No way would I want to part with a serious prospect for him, so likely means it would never happen. Who knows if the Mets think they're still competing, too. 

In this WC world we live in, the Mets are certainly still in it & I don't see them dealing Alonso.

As to the predictions, I don't have a specific idea except to say that at the rookie & two A-ball levels we have promising infielders coming out of our ears & that's where I think we may be looking to create a match. Even after already dealing Barrios.