2024 Major Publication Prospect Ranks

[Joseph Zarr]

On 1/20/2025 at 4:10 PM, Jim Goulart said:

 

'Criminally underrated'...bless this man😊. I approve of this message (I know, shocker), albeit a tad hyperbolic. None the less, this particular bit certainly caught my eye:

Quote

He's the ONLY player 21 or younger with a SwStr% below 10%, a BA above .300 and a SLG% over .400. William Bergolla is the only player fitting the first two categories, but has a SLG% of .368.

 

[Joseph Zarr]

2 hours ago, markedman5 said:

Well well

 

I fondly think back to BF's last group think Prospect Top 20 when I politely shared (paraphrasing): the BF community is likely going to look back at their end of the year rankings wondering how Jesus Made was not the number one ranked prospect (let alone, laughably, just outside the top 5) in their poll.

And, well, here we are. I see BA very much agreed with me. I'm going to go bake myself a cookie.😁

[yfinn6]

I did not expect to see Made in the top 50, let alone the top 25. Let's get 2025 started! 

[Ro Mueller]

RHP Logan Henderson was named as one of five under-the-radar pitching prospects here: 

 

[Matt]

BA wrote up six guys who could be the #1 prospect in the game in 2026. 

One of them was Made. Another? Pratt. 

[TURBO]

Arienamo and all his crazy batting stance and movement worries me.  Don't get me wrong, loved him as a T-Rat last year, but if that stuff doesn't get calmed down, will it play in the higher levels?  I hope so, but I think he is going to have to make some changes.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

Arienamo and all his crazy batting stance and movement worries me.  Don't get me wrong, loved him as a T-Rat last year, but if that stuff doesn't get calmed down, will it play in the higher levels?  I hope so, but I think he is going to have to make some changes.

Areinamo has been very consistent and, in fact, improved at each subsequent level.  While he will certainly be tested in the cavernous Southern League, I give him all of the benefit of the doubt.  To be fair, every single player that has ever played the game at any level has been forced to make some changes.  There’s nothing particularly worrisome for Jadher that would be any different from anyone else in my eyes. 

[TURBO]

9 minutes ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

Areinamo has been very consistent and, in fact, improved at each subsequent level.  While he will certainly be tested in the cavernous Southern League, I give him all of the benefit of the doubt.  To be fair, every single player that has ever played the game at any level has been forced to make some changes.  There’s nothing particularly worrisome for Jadher that would be any different from anyone else in my eyes. 

I beg to differ.  I watched him for a full season in Appleton.  He was awesome, but you can't watch him in the batter's box and not be concerned that all that extra movement isn't going to be an issue at some point.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

I beg to differ.  I watched him for a full season in Appleton.  He was awesome, but you can't watch him in the batter's box and not be concerned that all that extra movement isn't going to be an issue at some point.

Like I said, every player will be forced to make adjustments.  After watching him develop the past fours years, there’s no reason for any changes to be made at this point.  Oftentimes, prematurely making those changes to a players’ mechanics are where development goes awry.  A bat waggle in itself shouldn’t  concern many evaluators, especially with the results he has had, and that’s really the only thing that is out of the ordinary for Areinamo.  His bat waggle doesn’t force his hands to “catch up” and rush his swing, his head stays fairly level, and he repeats his swing mechanics well.  Many players (hitters and pitchers) with a lot of movement have trouble repeating their mechanics cleanly, but he does not struggle in that regard.

[Joseph Zarr]

Having 'ARobs' in my 'Areinamo Truther' corner this fine Thursday was not on my Bingo Card. But danged if I don't feel like a proud Papa Bear! 😘

 I have been metaphorically pounding my fist for this young man for over two years. Let me once again post what I posted above:

On 1/22/2025 at 11:33 AM, Joseph Zarr said:

He's the ONLY player 21 or younger with a SwStr% below 10%, a BA above .300 and a SLG% over .400. William Bergolla is the only player fitting the first two categories, but has a SLG% of .368.

Given he plays gold glove caliber defense at three infield positions, we're really going to doubt this young man over his bat 'waggle' pre pitch? He is in a defensive class by himself as far as I am concerned. My only question when it comes to this young man is how did Fangraphs give him a 45 FV defensive grade when he first came stateside?!? Anywho, carry on.

[Jim Goulart]

 

[Playing Catch]

17 hours ago, TURBO said:

Arienamo and all his crazy batting stance and movement worries me.  Don't get me wrong, loved him as a T-Rat last year, but if that stuff doesn't get calmed down, will it play in the higher levels?  I hope so, but I think he is going to have to make some changes.

I'm with TURBO. Which MLB hitters in the last 5-10 years have had the weirdest/busiest swings?

[TURBO]

14 hours ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

Like I said, every player will be forced to make adjustments.  After watching him develop the past fours years, there’s no reason for any changes to be made at this point.  Oftentimes, prematurely making those changes to a players’ mechanics are where development goes awry.  A bat waggle in itself shouldn’t  concern many evaluators, especially with the results he has had, and that’s really the only thing that is out of the ordinary for Areinamo.  His bat waggle doesn’t force his hands to “catch up” and rush his swing, his head stays fairly level, and he repeats his swing mechanics well.  Many players (hitters and pitchers) with a lot of movement have trouble repeating their mechanics cleanly, but he does not struggle in that regard.

He has far more than a "bat waggle."  His entire approach at the plate is about as busy as any I've seen.

We shall see.

I hope for nothing other than the best for him, he's an awesome teammate, and great player.

[sveumrules]

On 1/22/2025 at 1:37 PM, Joseph Zarr said:

I fondly think back to BF's last group think Prospect Top 20 when I politely shared (paraphrasing): the BF community is likely going to look back at their end of the year rankings wondering how Jesus Made was not the number one ranked prospect (let alone, laughably, just outside the top 5) in their poll.

And, well, here we are. I see BA very much agreed with me. I'm going to go bake myself a cookie.😁

I think the community being hesitant to go all in on Made is a good thing, especially back in October when there was less information and external accolades available. 

For one, it shows an element of restraint and more importantly it speaks to the depth of the system that a teenager with a nice bonus and big DSL numbers isn’t automatically vaulted to the #1 spot.

I also think BA and other prospect outlets are incentivized somewhat to take more aggressive stances on prospects like Jesus to be “first” or whatever. Shiny New Toy Syndrome.

Personally I’ve got Misio, Quero, Pratt and Made in the same tier. If Jesus comes over and keeps his performance up stateside he could put himself into a tier of his own for me, but until then it feels responsible to hedge somewhat when the hype is ramping up this early & he’s still so far away.

[sveumrules]

Jumping in on the Areinamo talk, it looks like he just missed the Top 20 back in October by four points (thanks for the in thread tabulations @Ro Mueller) so if one person that didn't vote would have cast a ballot with Jadher at #16 or higher he would have snuck in the last spot.

Gotta start with the hit tool. There are 435 players in the minors with at least 800 PAs the last two years. Jadher's .303 average is tied for 10th while his 11.7 K% is 13th lowest in the sample.

That's pretty remarkable, borderline elite kind of stuff. Unfortunately his 5.6 BB% is also 13th lowest in the sample, so if he isn't getting hits he isn't getting on base. The power has also been questionable in the past, though he did make some progress there last year with 30 doubles and 10 bombs at Wisco adding up to a .141 ISO that was above the .124 league average in the MWL.

Nice stolen base numbers with 48 SB / 13 CS the last two years, but sounds like he is more of a smart base runner than a certified burner kind of guy?

As good as the defense is, I think most view him as more of a really good 2B at the MLB level who could play some SS and be fine, and not quite having the power to fit the typical everyday 3B people like to think of. His game breakdown the last two years has been 112 (2B) 50 (3B) 38 (SS). 

Ultimately it feels like his top end realistic outcome to me is maybe something like Kolten Wong circa 2014-20. A guy who could put up around league average offense (98 wRC+) with plus base running (+18.8 BsR) and defense (+52 DRS).

Failing that, it seems like he has the well rounded toolset of a guy who could have a long career as a utility man so more of a medium ceiling, high floor kind of prospect.

Not long ago, this is an easy Top Ten prospect in the system. Based on where my own personal tier breaks are I started considering him with others around #18. I ended up going with Luis Lara, Jose Anderson, and Ernesto Martinez for those last three spots mostly because we are thinner organizationally in OF/1B prospects than we are in IF prospects.

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

I think the community being hesitant to go all in on Made is a good thing, especially back in October when there was less information and external accolades available. 

As you know, as a general rule and on public record, I generally find the rankings meaningless....beyond the top 3-5 players. The community being  hesitant, as you say, in the end does not mean all that much in the grand scheme of things. And, what we all want, regardless of a voting result, is the health and success for all the Brewers players. I agree there is no need to unnecessarily place unreasonable expectations on any ayer let alone a player who has yet to face stateside professional ball. Tho, I think it is quite clear when we see Made handle himself he wants the expectations.

 

And

Counterpoint:

I always hear of the emphasis and weight on age and performance given age in these types of rankings. It was pretty openly discussed in numerous prospect ranking arenas by that point in time Made had the makings of a potential future #1 prospect in all of baseball. It was also pretty widely known by that point in time Made was both a Brewers Minor League Player of the Year and had showcased batted ball profiles near light years beyond peers his age. I personally do not find Made landing at 6 as a landing spot - given what we knew at the time - a spot that made all that much sense. I continue to not. And, that's really not that big of a deal overall, As you know, I'm fine with disagreements and different opinions.

[Joseph Zarr]

28 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Jumping in on the Areinamo talk, it looks like he just missed the Top 20 back in October by four points (thanks for the in thread tabulations @Ro Mueller) so if one person that didn't vote would have cast a ballot with Jadher at #16 or higher he would have snuck in the last spot.

Gotta start with the hit tool. There are 435 players in the minors with at least 800 PAs the last two years. Jadher's .303 average is tied for 10th while his 11.7 K% is 13th lowest in the sample.

That's pretty remarkable, borderline elite kind of stuff. Unfortunately his 5.6 BB% is also 13th lowest in the sample, so if he isn't getting hits he isn't getting on base. The power has also been questionable in the past, though he did make some progress there last year with 30 doubles and 10 bombs at Wisco adding up to a .141 ISO that was above the .124 league average in the MWL.

Nice stolen base numbers with 48 SB / 13 CS the last two years, but sounds like he is more of a smart base runner than a certified burner kind of guy?

As good as the defense is, I think most view him as more of a really good 2B at the MLB level who could play some SS and be fine, and not quite having the power to fit the typical everyday 3B people like to think of. His game breakdown the last two years has been 112 (2B) 50 (3B) 38 (SS). 

Ultimately it feels like his top end realistic outcome to me is maybe something like Kolten Wong circa 2014-20. A guy who could put up around league average offense (98 wRC+) with plus base running (+18.8 BsR) and defense (+52 DRS).

Failing that, it seems like he has the well rounded toolset of a guy who could have a long career as a utility man so more of a medium ceiling, high floor kind of prospect.

Not long ago, this is an easy Top Ten prospect in the system. Based on where my own personal tier breaks are I started considering him with others around #18. I ended up going with Luis Lara, Jose Anderson, and Ernesto Martinez for those last three spots mostly because we are thinner organizationally in OF/1B prospects than we are in IF prospects.

Well reasoned thoughtful take! Well done. I appreciate this depth of thought.

[markedman5]

Pipeline a little lower on our guys

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-100-prospects-list-mlb-pipeline-preseason-2025

[Lathund]

Pipeline generally feels like the safest, most conservative of the various prospect outlets. They'll tend to slot in the draft picks in more or less draft order, and they'll generally be slow to make changes. Jesus Made at 56 is pretty aggressive for them; I honestly wouldn't have been shocked had they not ranked him. The above is pretty easy to see. And it's not necessarily a bad thing; having different philosophies between the various publications is useful, gives additional perspectives.

And while this is about the Brewers, it's interesting to see that the other major publications has seemingly seen sense (IMO) about the Cubs prospects, while Pipeline still has 7 of them in the top 100. Generally at the lower end though (except, rightfully, Shaw). I just don't see this generation of Cubs having a big impact. Partly because there's not going to be a ton of playing time for them. Due to both having a lot of established players already in place, but also because there's not a lot of positional flexibility, and a lack of well-rounded guys who contribute in all phases. Ballesteros can hit, but he's not a catcher, and probably not a 1B, and offers nothing on the bases. He *really* has to hit to make it, and the only lineup spot he can feature in (DH) has a 129 wRC+ incumbent under contract for two more years. Triantos and Caissie have lesser, but similar, issues. 

Not just strictly looking at the farm, a top 5 (Or even top 3) revenue team that rebuilds for 4 years should be in a better position by now. 

 

[Frisbee Slider]

3 hours ago, Lathund said:

it's interesting to see that the other major publications has seemingly seen sense (IMO) about the Cubs prospects, while Pipeline still has 7 of them in the top 100.

I noticed this, too. I know very little about the Cubs system but didn’t think they had one of the best systems in the minors.

[wiguy94]

8 hours ago, Lathund said:

Pipeline generally feels like the safest, most conservative of the various prospect outlets. They'll tend to slot in the draft picks in more or less draft order, and they'll generally be slow to make changes. Jesus Made at 56 is pretty aggressive for them; I honestly wouldn't have been shocked had they not ranked him. The above is pretty easy to see. And it's not necessarily a bad thing; having different philosophies between the various publications is useful, gives additional perspectives.

And while this is about the Brewers, it's interesting to see that the other major publications has seemingly seen sense (IMO) about the Cubs prospects, while Pipeline still has 7 of them in the top 100. Generally at the lower end though (except, rightfully, Shaw). I just don't see this generation of Cubs having a big impact. Partly because there's not going to be a ton of playing time for them. Due to both having a lot of established players already in place, but also because there's not a lot of positional flexibility, and a lack of well-rounded guys who contribute in all phases. Ballesteros can hit, but he's not a catcher, and probably not a 1B, and offers nothing on the bases. He *really* has to hit to make it, and the only lineup spot he can feature in (DH) has a 129 wRC+ incumbent under contract for two more years. Triantos and Caissie have lesser, but similar, issues. 

Not just strictly looking at the farm, a top 5 (Or even top 3) revenue team that rebuilds for 4 years should be in a better position by now. 

 

They bumped Made between now and their end of season Top 30 lists. They had him behind Misiorowski then and now he's ahead of Misirowski.

[markedman5]

Enjoy

 

[Jim Goulart]

 

[Playing Catch]

14 hours ago, Jim Goulart said:

 

The Lawrence Butler comp makes a lot of sense.

[markedman5]

More Made discussion at about 5 minute mark