Why Brewers Shouldn’t Chase Willy Adames In Free Agency

[Jake McKibbin]

His production over the last four years has been immense, but putting nostalgia aside, can he replicate that value over his next six years? The warning signs suggest not.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Willy Adames's time in Milwaukee has been an unqualified success. Acquiring him from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for JP Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen (both of whom have had significant injury woes since) was a master stroke on the part of David Stearns and company. In his career, Adames has 150 home runs, 51 stolen bases and a 109 OPS+, all as a premium defensive shortstop. His 21.5 career WAR is an impressive number, but Adames has been more than numbers can calculate for the Brewers. He’s been the heart and soul of this franchise since he joined them in 2021--a fan favorite on and off the field and a leader of men in the clubhouse. His relentless optimism was infectious among the Brewers, proving pivotal in extracting the most out of the plethora of talented youngsters on the Brewers roster.

Mark Attanasio made a comment last offseason about the Brewers offering Adames a nine-figure extension that was rejected as he bet on himself. He won that bet over the course of 2024, producing a career year at bat to propel himself forward in terms of value. That extension offer was likely the extent of what the Brewers can afford, and his market is likely to be substantially greater this offseason.

Market Value
Adames is the best shortstop hitting free agency this season, which allows a lot of leverage in negotiations. Ha-Seong Kim looks to be Adames's closest competitor. After them, the highest-caliber player is Miguel Rojas. Kim has had a turbid, injury-plagued year, compared with Adames hitting career highs in home runs, walks and stolen bases, widening the gap between the two.

Adames's defense did drop off during the season (something we’ll come to later), but his persona, his performance at the plate and his strong arm (combined with his market position) should enable him to get around 6 years and $150 million, based on deals for the likes of Dansby Swanson, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, and Javier Báez in recent offseasons.

The Warning Signs
Unfortunately, of late, big shortstop deals haven’t quite gone to plan. From Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Swanson to the quite shocking drop-off from Báez, they haven’t tended to age well. Injuries have played some part with Bogaerts and Correa, while the bats haven’t really come to life for Swanson and Báez.

The sad truth is that, as players age, their reaction times slow down--meaning they need to swing earlier, and therefore make swing decisions earlier. Some of this can be made up for with experience, but it will often bring about a decline in ball/strike recognition. Such recognition isn’t a strength of Adames, despite his improved walk rate this year. 

Adames’s swing length is already the fifth-longest in baseball, meaning his decision-making process is already happening a bit earlier than most other hitters'. He also doesn’t shorten his swing with two strikes, and despite better overall swing decisions this year, it’s a ticking time bomb for him.

Eventually, and potentially within the next two seasons, Adames may become a strikeout machine who struggles to make enough contact to access his home-run power with extreme chase rates. He won’t be as aggressive as Báez, but it probably won’t be pretty.

Then there are the defensive struggles that popped up this season, which may prevent him from playing shortstop next season even if he did stick with the Brewers. 

In nearly every conceivable defensive metric, Adames fell off a cliff in 2024. Outs Above Average still regards him as average, but other fielding metrics have questioned the errors that piled up in the second half, as well as his overall range. The defensive decline appears to be happening before our eyes.

It removes the floor from which Adames accrues his value over a season, and puts a lot of pressure on a bat which is unlikely to age well alongside it. If he can't address the defensive issues quickly, that contract could turn bad fast.

So Why Shouldn’t The Brewers Go Big For Their Star Shortstop?
I would happily agree to a contract of six years and $150 million for the production Adames has given the Brewers since his arrival. Combining the incredible defensive performance for a strong floor, while adding thump in big moments with the bat is a rare combination from such a premium position. The problem is it’s very unlikely that either the bat or the defense will hold up even past two years into this contract.

Adames will likely be a solid enough defender at third base toward the latter end of his new contract, with a big arm from the left side, but that range will continue to fall off. However, those errors could be here to stay, in which case he becomes a bit of a liability defensively, removing the floor for his value.

The Brewers also have a lot of infield talent in their farm system, although most of it is a year or more away. From Brock Wilken, Mike Boeve, and Cooper Pratt to the 18-year-old Luis Pena and Jesus Made, locking in a veteran on a six-year deal impinges on their prospects of playing time when they are ready in 2026 or 2027.

I love Adames. I Love what he’s brought to Milwaukee. But it would be folly to expect the same level of production over the next six seasons as the Brewers have gotten in their first four years from Adames. The defense is dropping off, the bat will likely follow soon. If he were forced to settle for a four-year, $100-million contract, it may become more feasible, but unfortunately, I can’t see the market trending that way.

The Brewers got the best years out of Adames. Now it’s time to let him go, before those prized memories turn sour.

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What do you think of Willy Adames value on the open market? Can you see any way he returns to Milwaukee? Would you even want him on a six year deal? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[Ulice Payne]

Agreed.  The Brewers should not be signing anyone long term.  Yelich should be the last player to retire as a Brewer.

This team needs to stay focused on young players, and let other teams pay high prices for older players' declining years.

[Seth Stohs]

Gimme Brice Turang at shortstop for the next two years until Cooper Pratt is ready. Keep Joey Ortiz at third base. Get Tyler Black an opportunity at first base for awhile... Let Monasterio and Collins and others compete at second base. Chourio, Frelick and Perkins to go with Yelich in the OF. 

I'd lock up Contreras for awhile. He's a catcher, but he's really young and been really good and consistent. Bring in a couple of veteran hitters, professional hitters who can handle playing 3 times a week and potentially 5 days a week. 

Spend money on pitching. Extend Peralta. 

[BrewerFan]

I did a little double-take...I mistakenly thought you were the one who suggested signing Bregman...

Anyway, I agree we shouldn't sign Adames. I don't agree that Correa and Swansby have been bad signings. I'd take that Correa deal in a heartbeat, he's still a star. And Swanson has three seasons with 4 WAR, the last two he's had 4.8 and 40. One season in the past he was 5.5, so...that's a solid signing.

Correa's been injured, but a deal with a superstar that runs until he's 34 with team options? I'd take that. 

Baez was a bad deal and kinda predictably bad. So was Boegarts and it was one of those deals the Pads made just because they were looking for SOMEONE to give a big bag of money to. 

 

As for Willy, I'd sign him...if there was some scenario in which he took less to stay here. Given he's turned down 9 figures already...I'd guess that is unlikely. But 5/130, maybe a TO for 30 with a 5M buyout? I would go that far. He's such an important part of the team, that'd be worth it. 

I know his defensive metrics fell off, but I think that was an aberration. He had a disproportionate number of throwing errors or just routine plays where he fumbled the ball a bit. That's it. Not sure Ortiz covering so much ground at 3rd helped him either. He has great range for a 3B and I get they're supposed to take whatever they can get to, but I think that actually hurt him.

 

Finally, he's SUCH an important part of this team. I've said before, I used to think Chemistry was overrated in Baseball. I mean, Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds went to a WS, but the Brewers teams the last decade show it sure helps. Willy is the heartbeat of this team.

I'd throw that deal out there and MAYBE there's a chance he wants to stay. Of not, the QO and you move on. But I'm certainly not giving him the 170-200M I believe he'd get. 

 

[Trax]

Agreed.  They had in the past already talked to him about a contract.  It is time for him to move on after we make the qualifying offer.

Anyone know what round pick we get for him?

[Jake McKibbin]

47 minutes ago, Trax said:

Agreed.  They had in the past already talked to him about a contract.  It is time for him to move on after we make the qualifying offer.

Anyone know what round pick we get for him?

As the Brewers are a recipient of revenue sharing money they'll get either:

A pick between the first round and comp balance A (supplemental first round) if Adames signs for over $50m as is likely.

If he signs for less than $50m (unlikely) they would get a pick after competitive balance B round

[Joseph Zarr]

Well, regardless of 'should' or 'shouldn't, I'm 99.99% certain this new MLB Broadcast deal for 2025 will significantly impact the Brewers payroll. Not that he fit before after he refused the early contract offers, but Adames just doesn't fit with this loss of broadcast revenue. It's a big hit for such a small market club and I can't help but imagine the Brewers payroll will come down significantly in 2025. And, well, that's just fine by me as they reorient and discover what they have amongst the greater depth of their organization. 

[MrTPlush]

Thankfully there is (hopefully) no way we can afford him and he won't be back. All the hype around him being so great this year and his OPS was still under .800 and we have absolutely no business giving a massive contract to someone with this kind of wild inconsistency. 

 

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

All the hype around him being so great this year and his OPS was still under .800

Leaguewide OPS was all the way down at .711 this year (3rd lowest in the last 30 years), so only six qualified shortstops cleared an .800 OPS. Willy's .794 OPS was 7th and once adjusted for home park (119 wRC+) was a scooch better than Elly De La Cruz's .808 OPS | 118 wRC+.

Even with a down year defensively, his 4.7 WAR ranked 5th among qualified SS.

Had a career year, tied Ken Griffey Jr. for most three run bombs in a single season, and was the unquestioned leader on a team that overachieved every reasonable regular season expectation.

The next contract very likely won't be justified, but the hype around Willy's performance this year certainly was.

[wallus]

Thanks Willy, good luck with your new team and boatload of money.

[Doug B]

The Yelich and Braun blunders should not be repeated.