Game 13 : Packers @ Lions - Thursday, Dec 5th 7:15 PM

[thebruce44]

This team goes as JLove goes. If he plays our of his mind like he did at the end of last year, they can beat the Lions even without a better pass rush.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

7 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

This team goes as JLove goes. If he plays our of his mind like he did at the end of last year, they can beat the Lions even without a better pass rush.

The funny thing is there is a lot of evidence this team is way better than last year. 

At 9-4 they have lost 4 games to 3 teams at a combined 32-5. 3/4 losses had the game still in question on the final possession or two. Last season they had a handful of very blah losses. They did get hot, but even going into Dallas the consensus was they had already had a good season no matter what. 

It's not apples to apples, I understand heightened expectations, but this is a good football team. They are a good candidate for a playoff dark horse. I think it's reasonable to consider the season overall a disappointment if they are eliminated in Rd 1 or Rd 2. But that's life. You don't always get the results.

[adambr2]

3 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

This team goes as JLove goes. If he plays our of his mind like he did at the end of last year, they can beat the Lions even without a better pass rush.

I don’t know. It’s so, so hard to win a Super Bowl with a subpar pass rush. It’s probably right up there with high end QB play as far as correlation to winning championships. You can find exceptions to both, but they are awfully rare and usually dominant in almost every other area.

Basically, yes, they could win it all as currently constructed, but Jordan would need to play out of his mind in the playoffs. That includes his receivers stepping up and playing better, too. I don’t know where Jayden Reed has been since the first month of the season, but the man may as well be on a milk carton.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

5 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I don’t know. It’s so, so hard to win a Super Bowl with a subpar pass rush. It’s probably right up there with high end QB play as far as correlation to winning championships. You can find exceptions to both, but they are awfully rare and usually dominant in almost every other area.

Basically, yes, they could win it all as currently constructed, but Jordan would need to play out of his mind in the playoffs. That includes his receivers stepping up and playing better, too. I don’t know where Jayden Reed has been since the first month of the season, but the man may as well be on a milk carton.

They flat-out will not win the Super Bowl without a pass-rusher getting hot, a new blitz package or both. It becomes that much more important when you're now only playing good QBs.

[CheezWizHed]

13 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Seriously? The Lions were playing without half of their defense and were playing with at least 6 street free agents. You need to take off your green colored glasses. It’s the Lions and maybe the Eagles above everyone else in the NFC. If te Lions didn’t give them a free 7 points it wouldn’t have been that close.

I'm confused... isn't that who they are right now?  Injuries are part of the game and it impacts who they are as a team.  We have injuries too, though not as severe.   My assessment also includes the first game we played against them when they weren't as banged up. 

Clearly Lions are the better team... they beat us twice this year.  But the gap isn't big.  The point of my post was more about the gap in execution than it was a gap in talent. 

So yes, I'm serious. 

[adambr2]

13 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

They flat-out will not win the Super Bowl without a pass-rusher getting hot, a new blitz package or both. It becomes that much more important when you're now only playing good QBs.

Yep. It’s partly why I’m trying to be more patient with Hafley than I have been with past coordinators. Last night was not his best game, but overall, I think he’s done a good job.

The one thing you cannot ever do is give a QB 8-10 seconds to throw. I don’t care what your coverage looks like, someone is going to get open. So you either generate pressure with your front 4, or you blitz. Problem with blitzing is that your corners need to win their 1 on 1s, and that’s tough when you’re constantly down Jaire.

I expect in the playoffs, Hafley will blitz more and we’ll see some schemes that we didn’t see in the regular season. There isn’t much of a point in him putting anything exotic on film for the rest of the regular season.

It is imperative that Alexander be healthy and productive in January.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

7 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm confused... isn't that who they are right now?  Injuries are part of the game and it impacts who they are as a team.  We have injuries too, though not as severe.   My assessment also includes the first game we played against them when they weren't as banged up. 

Clearly Lions are the better team... they beat us twice this year.  But the gap isn't big.  The point of my post was more about the gap in execution than it was a gap in talent. 

So yes, I'm serious. 

They were down a couple guys last night that will be back soon. But two points - one of the "backups" they were counting was Z. Smith, which is a joke, and really, they pressured so well that it shouldn't really matter if they play again. The regular guys couldn't have played a lot better than the front they used.

[Fear The Chorizo]

13 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Yep. It’s partly why I’m trying to be more patient with Hafley than I have been with past coordinators. Last night was not his best game, but overall, I think he’s done a good job.

The one thing you cannot ever do is give a QB 8-10 seconds to throw. I don’t care what your coverage looks like, someone is going to get open. So you either generate pressure with your front 4, or you blitz. Problem with blitzing is that your corners need to win their 1 on 1s, and that’s tough when you’re constantly down Jaire.

I expect in the playoffs, Hafley will blitz more and we’ll see some schemes that we didn’t see in the regular season. There isn’t much of a point in him putting anything exotic on film for the rest of the regular season.

It is imperative that Alexander be healthy and productive in January.

This defense is pretty good against the run compared to some of the prior Packer D's that we'd all see get steamrolled by teams who were willing to keep running the ball

[adambr2]

3 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

This defense is pretty good against the run compared to some of the prior Packer D's that we'd all see get steamrolled by teams who were willing to keep running the ball

Which is awesome, and something we’ve struggled with for years, but it’s still not something that is as essential to playoff success in the modern NFL as an effective pass rush. It’s the heart of an elite defense and leads to so many productive defensive plays. Bad, hurried throws. Interceptions. Sacks which are often essentially turnovers in their own right as they totally turn down and distance against the offense.

Last night was actually a pretty good case study for this. The Lions love to run the ball, and we did a wonderful job stopping them, holding them to an astoundingly low 3.3 YPC. And yet we still weren’t able to do nearly enough to slow down their offense.

[Underachiever]

Besides, if Packers play the Lions in the playoffs, we get to be told that it’s hard to beat a team three times in a year.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

8 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Besides, if Packers play the Lions in the playoffs, we get to be told that it’s hard to beat a team three times in a year.

Jokes aside, I hope we get a third game. It would just be fun as a fan. There's a lot of bad blood with these teams now and it would just be good TV. I feel as good about where the Packers are and the matchup as I think I can, given that I think we are the weaker team, if that makes sense. I would rather play Detroit indoors a third time than go to Philadelphia for the Divisional. 

[thebruce44]

3 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

They flat-out will not win the Super Bowl without a pass-rusher getting hot, a new blitz package or both. It becomes that much more important when you're now only playing good QBs.

I just don't think its that binary. An early takeaway and a hyper efficient offense with perfect QB play can also help a pass-rush when defenders can pin their ears back and get after the QB.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

58 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

I just don't think its that binary. An early takeaway and a hyper efficient offense with perfect QB play can also help a pass-rush when defenders can pin their ears back and get after the QB.

A takeaway is made much more likely by a dependable pass rush. The bigger problem is that you most likely have to do that 4 times in a row against high-level QB play in the playoffs.

The Packers hypothetical run could be Baker Mayfield - Jared Goff - Jalen Hurts - Mahomes/Allen. You're just not going to do that without consistent pressure. It is easier to mask in the regular season when half your games are against scrubs.

[adambr2]

44 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

A takeaway is made much more likely by a dependable pass rush. The bigger problem is that you most likely have to do that 4 times in a row against high-level QB play in the playoffs.

The Packers hypothetical run could be Baker Mayfield - Jared Goff - Jalen Hurts - Mahomes/Allen. You're just not going to do that without consistent pressure. It is easier to mask in the regular season when half your games are against scrubs.

That, and I don’t think “perfect QB play” is a realistic expectation for any QB.

Feels like “if our QB is otherworldly, we can win it all” has been our rallying cry for about 10 years. As far as winning championships, it hasn’t been a very successful one.

Look at the Chiefs — as great as Patrick Mahomes is, he isn’t doing it on his own. The Chiefs have committed to rebuilding their pass rush over the last 5 years or so, and it has as much to do with their sustained success as anything else. 

I have high hopes and high expectations for Jordan Love, but I’d like to build a better supporting cast for him than his predecessors had and get away from the Aaron Rodgers era mindset of just hoping the guy under center can carry us.

[homer]

they lost by 3 on a last second field goal on the road. I don't think they need to be perfect to beat them.

[Sixtolezcano]

12 minutes ago, homer said:

they lost by 3 on a last second field goal on the road. I don't think they need to be perfect to beat them.

OK

[Joseph Zarr]

I mean, holy heck this throw...I might have watched this absolute excellence 10 x since the final whistle blew?

 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

4 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I mean, holy heck this throw...I might have watched this absolute excellence 10 x since the final whistle blew?

 

Almost impossible to make that throw without properly planting your feet, usually would come out as a duck that gets picked off, which was definitely a possible outcome here. But if people want to see him hit these throws they will have to live with some picks. I am OK with it. He definitely does not seem to let his mistakes get to him.

[adambr2]

4 hours ago, homer said:

they lost by 3 on a last second field goal on the road. I don't think they need to be perfect to beat them.

I think we need to be prepared for the fact that the Lions will be better too, and more at full strength.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I keep seeing people point out that the Lions are better but I don't think I've seen a single person here or otherwise say that they aren't. The gap is small enough to fall under any given Sunday though. Whereas, for example in 2020 with SF, there was not a chance in hell the Packers were going to make it close.

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 12/7/2024 at 2:51 PM, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I keep seeing people point out that the Lions are better but I don't think I've seen a single person here or otherwise say that they aren't. The gap is small enough to fall under any given Sunday though. Whereas, for example in 2020 with SF, there was not a chance in hell the Packers were going to make it close.

The Lions are the best team in the NFC right now...but honestly I think the NFC could see any one of 5 teams wind up in the Super Bowl and it wouldn't be a dramatic surprise (Det, Philly, GB, Vikes, Bucs).  The top 3 NFC North teams have a total of 3 out-of-division losses between them 13 games in, and those close losses were to the Eagles in Brazil Week 1, @ Rams, and Bucs in Week 2.  There is still a full month of the regular season for a few key injuries to happen on contending team rosters that could completely flip the playoff picture, too.

If Love gets hot with a healthy receiving corps and Jacobs stays healthy, the Packers are as good as anyone else in the NFL and it doesn't matter where the game is played - even with an at-times shaky defense that struggles to generate a pass rush.  That being said, the youth on the Packers roster and an ill-timed Love INT make them beatable for any potential playoff opponent.  

[adambr2]

Do the Lions know that not only is a Super Bowl not a foregone conclusion, but even a bye and first round home game isn’t?

I think the Bills are going to be ready to play after dropping a tough one in LA. The Lions are due to drop one of these tight ones, if they do, and the Vikings win their next 3, that Week 18 showdown between the Vikings and Lions is for the division.

Unfortunately, one of those Viking games is against us. Hell, if it doesn’t affect our playoff positioning I’d almost prefer to lose it if it makes Week 18 for the division.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think the Lions do, and that is why they were really trying to slam the door against the Packers. Had the Packers won that game, nothing would really change for the Packers, but it would have really opened the door to the Lions losing the bye. 

I don't think the Vikings are going to win out though. I believe they'll lose to either Detroit or Green Bay and possibly both. I think Campbell was more aware of Philly being hot on their tail and making sure they do not end up playing them in Philly.

[Underachiever]

Really not liking all the devil talk in this thread. @Fear The Chorizo: Suggesting the Vikings as a possible Super Bowl team? @adambr2: Suggesting you could "almost prefer" a Packer loss to the Vikings? 

You are ruining my Christmas spirit. Friends don't let friends imagine good things for the Vikings. Next you are gonna tell me that you like that stupid horn they blow at their stadium.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, Underachiever said:

Really not liking all the devil talk in this thread. @Fear The Chorizo: Suggesting the Vikings as a possible Super Bowl team? @adambr2: Suggesting you could "almost prefer" a Packer loss to the Vikings? 

You are ruining my Christmas spirit. Friends don't let friends imagine good things for the Vikings. Next you are gonna tell me that you like that stupid horn they blow at their stadium.

Yes, I want ZERO part of helping the Vikings win anything.