Developed - Devin Williams to the Yankees for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin

[gregmag]

6 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Those statistics are outcome-based.

"Shaky" isn't outcome-based.  "Shaky" describes the journey from beginning to end.

He walked a lot of guys and threw a lot of pitches per inning relative to his peers.  That fits my definition of a "shaky" journey from beginning to end, even if the outcome was what was desired and a frequently better outcome than his peers.

Fair enough, but at that point I’m not sure why “shaky” matters or if it’s even a bad thing. The factors you’re describing actually seem integral to DW’s success. Throw a bunch of pitches, keep guys off balance, don’t be afraid to walk a few batters, prevent runs. Lather, rinse, repeat. It’s a variation on how Nolan Ryan pitched.

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, gregmag said:

It’s a variation on how Nolan Ryan pitched.

Interesting comparison.

Williams 2020-24
179 K%+ | 139 BB%+ | 115 LOB%+
59 AVG+ | 41 ERA- | 53 FIP-

Nolan Ryan 1981
179 K%+ | 134 BB%+ | 113 LOB%+
74 AVG+ | 52 ERA- | 71 FIP-

Would I have preferred if Williams walked fewer batters? Of course, but from 2020-24 he was elite at striking guys out, limiting hits, limiting HR, stranding runners, and most importantly limiting runs. Can’t have it all.

& now he has begat Durbin (& kinda Lockridge too) all while almost single handedly torpedo-ing (pun, intentional) the Yankees season…chef’s kiss. Almost sounds like the kind of yarn that Uecker might spin.

[LouisEly]

45 minutes ago, gregmag said:

Fair enough, but at that point I’m not sure why “shaky” matters or if it’s even a bad thing.

It raises your stress level while it's happening.  

There are many, many posts within IGT's on this site that have documented that.  Particularly walking guys when you have the lead.

[SRB]

5 hours ago, LouisEly said:

It raises your stress level while it's happening.  

There are many, many posts within IGT's on this site that have documented that.  Particularly walking guys when you have the lead.

You're ignoring the fact that he was an elite pitcher at keeping runners of base via WHIP. Walking more batters was a consequence of being nearly unhittable.

Seems like an objective fact that an elevated BB/9 is better than an elevated H/9.

[LouisEly]

33 minutes ago, SRB said:

You're ignoring the fact that he was an elite pitcher at keeping runners of base via WHIP. Walking more batters was a consequence of being nearly unhittable.

Seems like an objective fact that an elevated BB/9 is better than an elevated H/9.

If you knew me, you'd know that I don't ignore anything.

If a team has a lead, I'd rather that the pitcher challenge them to hit their way on then give them free baserunners that didn't earn their way on.  Walking more batters isn't a consequence of being unhittable - you're ignoring the fact that there's no correlation between those two things.

Walking more is a function of command and control.  Good hitters don't swing at balls outside of the zone.  Being "unhittable" is a function of "stuff".  I never said he didn't have good "stuff".  

[markedman5]

 

[nate82]

Durbin on being traded to the Brewers.

https://www.mlb.com/video/caleb-durbin-on-being-traded-to-the-brewers-more

[BrewerFan]

On 8/16/2025 at 4:52 PM, LouisEly said:

It raises your stress level while it's happening.  

There are many, many posts within IGT's on this site that have documented that.  Particularly walking guys when you have the lead.

I don't spend much time on IGTs... the swings are too much, BUT... I was always a little surprised looking at Williams numbers and then correlating them with the feeling I got watching him. 

I mean, he got the outs and saves. I just didn't feel great about a guy who didn't have that big Fastball anymore and he blew up pretty badly 3 post-seasons. But... he was pretty damn good otherwise.