Cubs get Tucker

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

Still a great deal for the Cubs in my opinion.  Paredes and Wesnewski are eh to me.

<Edit:  Paredes is better than I was giving him credit for.>

Hinges on Smith. 

Tucker will be awesome this year if healthy, we can pretty much count on that.

 

And it's definitely not immaterial.  They have an exclusive negotiating window for a year.  They may not end up signing him, but it's not nothing.

I think it's really dumb on the Cubs behalf. I do think the period they have to extend him is very relevant. So relevant, it's what makes or breaks the trade.

They're going to have to trade at least one of Bellinger or Haap or Suzuki? And the gap between them isn't THAT big. If they extend him, fine, but if Soto is getting 765 and up to 830 with 75M up front, Tucker is certainly worth 400M over 12 years or so. 

300 would be a great deal, not a discount. 

[Jopal78]

16 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

If I liked it there and they made me a fair offer, sure.

 

Happens all the time.

It doesn’t happen all the time. Because of the difficulty seeing eye to eye on what’s a fair offer.
 

I’m sure Tucker will say somewhere around what Ohtani and Soto are being paid; the Cubs will say something less than that. Then he will file for free agency and see who will pay him the most. in today’s game, Tucker would be crazy to not explore free agency. 
 

Secondly, the  Cubs now have five starting outfielders (Crow, Happ, Tucker, Bellinger and Suzuki) and will get low balled by everyone when they try to deal Suzuki and/or Bellinger.
 

This is because there isn’t enough playing time to go around, and Suzuki already has his agent grumbling that he wouldn’t have signed in Chicago if he knew they were going to DH him. Bellinger while not a bad player is guaranteed nearly 60 million dollars for the next 2 years. 

I suspect they’ll end up giving them both away:  Suzuki because teams will know he doesn’t want to be there and Bellinger simply to move his contract and overall talent wise Tucker = Paredes, Bellinger and Suzuki 

[StearnsFTW]

People trying to talk themselves into this being bad for the Cubs is pretty funny.

 

He's a top 10 hitter in baseball and they can afford him.

[Jopal78]

5 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

People trying to talk themselves into this being bad for the Cubs is pretty funny.

 

He's a top 10 hitter in baseball and they can afford him.

Got any evidence of that? Sure it’s a huge media market in Chicago but here’s the 3 largest contracts ever handed out by the Ricketts family: Jason Heyward 8 yrs/184 million dollars, Dansby Swanson 7 yrs/177 million, Jon Lester 6 yrs/155 million.

Never say never, but based on historical evidence It seems pretty unlikely the Cubs owners will suddenly authorize a contract for 10+ years and 350 + million dollars. In fact, they didn’t extend any of their World Series heroes over fewer dollars than that. 

 

Then there’s the question if that would even be an enticement for a top 10 hitter in baseball to sign an extension let alone forgo free agency. 
 

Tucker is a great player, but until proven otherwise he’s a one year rental on a 83 win team.

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

People trying to talk themselves into this being bad for the Cubs is pretty funny.

 

He's a top 10 hitter in baseball and they can afford him.

The Cubs can afford anyone they want, but haven’t really ever ponied up at the top of the market. If they want to extend or re-sign Tucker it could approach doubling the largest contract in franchise history.

How “good” the deal ends up being for the Cubs will come down to if they can get back to the playoffs for the first time in the last six full seasons in 2025 and if the Ricketts finally decide to spend on a superstar.

[markedman5]

When was the last time a guy at the top of the market was traded with 1 year to go and then signed an extension with his new team before hitting free agency? 

I mean I’m sure it’s happened but certainly not often…….when someone gets that close to free agency he almost always will want to see what his value is.

Especially when a guy who plays the same position just got a record shattering contract the year before.

 

I’m taking no position on if this is a good or bad trade for the cubs…….what I’m,saying is if your position is it’s a great trade “ assuming they extend him” then I don’t think it will be a great trade in that scenario.

Now is it possible they find the money and outbid everyone else for him next winter? Sure……..but that’s not how it’s worked out in recent years so I have my doubts.

 

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

When was the last time a guy at the top of the market was traded with 1 year to go and then signed an extension with his new team before hitting free agency? 

Betts with Dodgers in 2020 for 12/365 and Lindor with Mets for 10/341 in 2021 were the last two.

[TURBO]

Cubs not done yet:

 

The Cubs and Marlins are discussing a Jesús Luzardo deal, with James Triantos or Owen Caissie likely going to Miami.

 

Luzardo seems risky after dealing with elbow and back injuries in a 2024 season in which he posted a 5.00 ERA in 12 starts, but he was excellent in finishing with a 3.58 ERA and 208 strikeouts in 178 2/3 innings in 2023. Triantos and Caissie are fine prospects and would be candidates to help out next year if traded. Triantos would probably step in at second base sometime next summer, whereas Caissie would have a chance to win a corner outfield gig in spring training.

 

45m ago

Source: Bruce Levine

[homer]

3 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Got any evidence of that? Sure it’s a huge media market in Chicago but here’s the 3 largest contracts ever handed out by the Ricketts family: Jason Heyward 8 yrs/184 million dollars, Dansby Swanson 7 yrs/177 million, Jon Lester 6 yrs/155 million.

Never say never, but based on historical evidence It seems pretty unlikely the Cubs owners will suddenly authorize a contract for 10+ years and 350 + million dollars. In fact, they didn’t extend any of their World Series heroes over fewer dollars than that. 

 

Then there’s the question if that would even be an enticement for a top 10 hitter in baseball to sign an extension let alone forgo free agency. 
 

Tucker is a great player, but until proven otherwise he’s a one year rental on a 83 win team.

They can afford it. They choose not to spend it.

I think it's a good deal for them even if it is a one year rental.

[NOMAAM]

Philly rumored to have offered Bohm and Nick Castellanos.   Not seeing how Cast had any value for Astros.

[TURBO]

Fun with numbers:

 

[BrewerFan]

7 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

People trying to talk themselves into this being bad for the Cubs is pretty funny.

 

He's a top 10 hitter in baseball and they can afford him.

 

The Math is real simple IMO and I don't have to talk myself into it. 

They added Tucker for Bellinger/Suzuki(lets say one for the sake or argument), Paredes and Wesneski just for next years team. They also traded away the 14th pick in the draft from last year, the #1 prospect in the Astros organization now.

They added...maybe2 WAR to next years team. 

Tucker is a top ~10 hitter in Baseball. I also don't think he makes the Cubs much better next year. Both of those things can be true. It's not Fantasy Baseball. 

Maybe they make another trade and move Busch so Bellinger can play 1B. But then they still have to try and move Suzuki...who has a NTC. Or they can play Bellinger in CF and I'm not sure what happens to PCA in that scenario...but they added to the strength of their team for a player who'll likely net them a comp pick in a year. I don't think that's worth what they gave up. If you think they're a playoff team, then fine. The upgrade might actually make a difference. 
 

I agree with @sveumrules...how good of a trade it is will depend on any extension. I could also change my mind based on other signings.

If the trade rumors are true and they're dealing another top 100 prospect+ for a pitcher who is extremely erratic...eh, just not a team that really scares me.

 

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

Fun with numbers:

 

Soto has big edges in OBP (423 to 362 since 2021), playing time (an extra 1,527 career PAs), and age (hit FA at 26 vs 29 for Tucker).

Tucker’s gonna break the bank no doubt, but he’s still gonna end up hundreds of millions shy of what Soto got.

[CheeseheadInQC]

3 hours ago, NOMAAM said:

Philly rumored to have offered Bohm and Nick Castellanos.   Not seeing how Cast had any value for Astros.

If this is true and it is just 2-for-1 then you can cross Bohm off the list for Milwaukee because the Phillies’ valuation for him is out of touch with reality.