Internally, how is the Brewers front office viewing this season?

[Playing Catch]

Obviously publicly, and to a certain extent, in the clubhouse, the Brewers brass are sure to be talking about another division title in 2025. And they should be! The Brewers are returning most of the talent on a division champ. Many of the players are young enough that expecting them to continue to improve is a fair expectation. This is a good team.

But! In the deeper reaches of the front office. What are the conversations? Where are the Brewers on longer-term cycles? They are now completely in the post-Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Williams era. They are now entering the expected decline years for the Yelich contract. Contreras is under team control through 2028(!)

How is Matt Arnold viewing this season in relation to 2026 or 2027?

I'm kinda feeling like the Brewers are going to use 2025 as a soft-launch for what they hope to be a really bright 2026-2029 window. I'm getting the feeling that they are going to continue to blood in a lot of rookies so that they can have a really strong foundation from which to build teams down the road.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, on the one hand the Brewers are on year nine of a multi season run that has seen them win the 6th most games in MLB since 2017, but on the other hand they’re really only going into their 2nd year with this pretty much entirely new core of players.

I’d imagine Arnold and associates view this offseason as more or less status quo, especially with the decreased TV money.

With the talent in the pipeline over the next couple years just keep the books as clean as possible aside from Yelich’s deal so that we can hopefully extend whichever youngsters turn out and maybe even have room to make an opportunistic “big money” move should the right opportunity present itself.

[brewmann04]

I think they are waiting on some more of their potential Young Core to come to the majors to make a big push .

well i am  hoping at least.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't believe their thinking changes from year to year. It's more about how to get to the same goal they have every season than what they want out of any particular season.

Overall I think it's a mistake to view it as windows of opportunity that open and close depending on the status of the current roster. I also don't think the front office views it that way. looking through the windows of opportunity lens leads to holding onto players you should let go or acquire some that doesn't make sense for the long term. There will come a time when the team fails to find enough talent for a team to be competitive for a couple years but it won't be due to them intentionally going for it in a single window at the cost of the future.

[Jopal78]

I wouldn’t imagine their thinking is different than any other year. They still have many of core group of players at the major league level who have won 360+  games over the last four years, so as usual they will go bargain shopping in late January and early February for some free agents to supplement the core group then head to camp figuring to compete for the NL Central title yet again. 

[Playing Catch]

24 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Overall I think it's a mistake to view it as windows of opportunity that open and close depending on the status of the current roster. I also don't think the front office views it that way. looking through the windows of opportunity lens leads to holding onto players you should let go or acquire some that doesn't make sense for the long term. There will come a time when the team fails to find enough talent for a team to be competitive for a couple years but it won't be due to them intentionally going for it in a single window at the cost of the future.

I agree that the Brewers believe enough in random outcomes that they are always trying to "compete" for playoff opportunities, and that they may never have a "go for it" mentality (which I also agree with). But do you not believe that they see some seasons as having a stronger team than others? That in some seasons, they may sign a guy (say, Rhys Hoskins, 2024), whereas in other seasons that they would choose to just go with unproven youngsters? I guess I would push back on that. I think that there is enough nuance and flexibility that they would view opportunities differently from one season to the next, specifically in terms of how it could impact future rosters.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I think they viewed last year as year 1 of a soft reboot, with this being the 2nd year.  They just happened to win the division last year.  That being said, they always want to win.

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

I agree that the Brewers believe enough in random outcomes that they are always trying to "compete" for playoff opportunities, and that they may never have a "go for it" mentality (which I also agree with). But do you not believe that they see some seasons as having a stronger team than others? That in some seasons, they may sign a guy (say, Rhys Hoskins, 2024), whereas in other seasons that they would choose to just go with unproven youngsters? I guess I would push back on that. I think that there is enough nuance and flexibility that they would view opportunities differently from one season to the next, specifically in terms of how it could impact future rosters.

lLast season they lost two aces and their manager and they were playing rookies or second year players all over the field. It would have been the perfect time to let Bauers or Black play if they viewed the season as a transition or minor rebuild. Yet they signed Hoskins and Sanchez.

[Samurai Bucky]

2 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I agree that the Brewers believe enough in random outcomes that they are always trying to "compete" for playoff opportunities, and that they may never have a "go for it" mentality (which I also agree with). But do you not believe that they see some seasons as having a stronger team than others? That in some seasons, they may sign a guy (say, Rhys Hoskins, 2024), whereas in other seasons that they would choose to just go with unproven youngsters? I guess I would push back on that. I think that there is enough nuance and flexibility that they would view opportunities differently from one season to the next, specifically in terms of how it could impact future rosters.

I think this is like Spock playing 3D chess.  There are short-term goals, but those goals weighed against the long-term goals.

I am not part of the front office.  Yet I see them focusing on locking up good talent to provide the core and then trying to fit pieces in where there are needs much like @Playing Catch is suggesting.  The goal is to make sure the foundation of good, young talent provides a recurring core that produces.  They only way they should go "all in" (IMHO) is if they can trade away the younger talent, but not affect the timeline of young talent being able to contribute.

[SF70]

7 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, on the one hand the Brewers are on year nine of a multi season run that has seen them win the 6th most games in MLB since 2017, but on the other hand they’re really only going into their 2nd year with this pretty much entirely new core of players.

I’d imagine Arnold and associates view this offseason as more or less status quo, especially with the decreased TV money.

With the talent in the pipeline over the next couple years just keep the books as clean as possible aside from Yelich’s deal so that we can hopefully extend whichever youngsters turn out and maybe even have room to make an opportunistic “big money” move should the right opportunity present itself.

Agree with you here.

I think extension’s will get offered to the best and youngest of this team’s incredible teenage talent plus Quero, so financial-flexibility will be priority #1.

To be blunt, I also think the FO can hardly control their excitement over this monstrous infrastructure they have created since late 2015. They already have the best farm in the game and all from their last 3 classes (‘23 draft), (‘24 IFA) & (‘24 draft). My guess is they expect another great IFA class in 2 weeks and another great draft next July with 6 top picks and $17M+ to spend. I think they plan on being the most talented team in baseball from 2027-2033.

Hyperbole? No way, not with having created 2 of the best in baseball classes (‘23 draft-class & ‘24 IFA class) and maybe the most underrated class in baseball (‘24 draft-class), back to back to back.

Aram & Jack are so right when they said this teams prospect-procurement & development is “like a well-oiled machine”

[Soupbone]

Between Made, Quintana, Pena and Anderson it looks like there are 4 major league players.

Way to early to call that but, there might be more in that class.

[umphrey]

They lose 3/5 starting pitchers next year and Freddy the year after that, which is pretty concerning. I see this as more of a go for it year than anything for that reason, but I don’t think they will accept a full rebuild either. Still, if the team is doing poorly they might try to fire sale a few guys for any hope at acquiring starting pitching with more years of control. I am hoping it goes the other way though, that the team does well and they can add 1 or 2 impact players for this year.

[SF70]

17 hours ago, umphrey said:

They lose 3/5 starting pitchers next year and Freddy the year after that, which is pretty concerning. I see this as more of a go for it year than anything for that reason, but I don’t think they will accept a full rebuild either. Still, if the team is doing poorly they might try to fire sale a few guys for any hope at acquiring starting pitching with more years of control. I am hoping it goes the other way though, that the team does well and they can add 1 or 2 impact players for this year.

They get Gasser back 100% by OD of ‘26. Between Hunt-Patrick-Henderson-CRod-Wichrowski they should get the back end of the rotation filled out at worst, and maybe one becomes more of a 2/3. Myers is solid and they have upside if one of Ashby-Hall-Misiorowski breaks-out.

That doesn’t include the 23 pitchers brought in from the last 2 draft-classes currently being developed, most of which are starters, or any potential high-draft picks from next July’s draft-class they could add.

Then of course there could also be trades that bring in SP from outside the organization.

Bottom-line — this FO knows pitching better than most teams and I just don’t see them without a well better than average starting staff moving-forward.

 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Those 3 pitchers who become FA next year will also free up $29M (including Woodruff buyout) and Hoskins will free up another $22M.  So, in addition to what SF70 stated, there is a good chance they add an experienced starting pitcher or two via trade or free agent with all that money.

[umphrey]

7 hours ago, SF70 said:

They get Gasser back 100% by OD of ‘26. Between Hunt-Patrick-Henderson-CRod-Wichrowski they should get the back end of the rotation filled out at worst, and maybe one becomes more of a 2/3. Myers is solid and they have upside if one of Ashby-Hall-Misiorowski breaks-out.

That doesn’t include the 23 pitchers brought in from the last 2 draft-classes currently being developed, most of which are starters, or any potential high-draft picks from next July’s draft-class they could add.

Then of course there could also be trades that bring in SP from outside the organization.

Bottom-line — this FO knows pitching better than most teams and I just don’t see them without a well better than average starting staff moving-forward.

 

I don’t think you can count on any of those guys for more than 100 innings in 2026, except Myers, but I was already counting him as one of 2 returning pitchers. It’s looking like the SP for 2026 will be more like 2024 where we were 25th in SP WAR. 2025 we have 5 guys who hypothetically could take the ball every 5th game all year. 

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, umphrey said:

more like 2024 where we were 25th in SP WAR.

Brewers SP were 25th in FIP based WAR last year, but their 4.09 ERA greatly outpaced their 4.52 FIP.

That -0.43 differential was the largest gap among all SP groups elevating the Brewers rotation to 18th in runs allowed based WAR.

Given the Brewers emphasis on run prevention and consistently getting their pitchers to outperform their peripherals (-0.51 ERA/FIP is the best in MLB the last two years, -0.25 is 3rd going back to 2016) I’m not sure FIP does the best job of capturing the value they provide.

As much as Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta got the lions share of the credit during this recent run it was really only in 2021 that we got a truly dominant performance out of the rotation…

2018
11.2 rWAR (15th) | 8.3 fWAR (20th)
2019
9.9 rWAR (16th) | 8.5 fWAR (20th)
2021
22.3 rWAR (2nd) | 20.3 fWAR (2nd)
2022
12.9 rWAR (14th) | 12.5 fWAR (13th)
2023
15.6 rWAR (4th) | 11.2 fWAR (12th)
2024
10.9 rWAR (18th) | 7.3 fWAR (25th)

[umphrey]

I agree they made up for it with defense but I also think they acknowledged that it’s a flaw and that is why the rotation looks so much different this year