2025 Brewers Prospect Preview: Braylon Payne

[Jamie Cameron]

Spring training is around the corner. It’s time to get reacquainted with the Brewers' 2024 MLB Draft class, ahead of their first full season of professional baseball in 2025. First up: their somewhat surprising first-round pick.

Image courtesy of © Max Correa / The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Draft Context, Scouting and Signing
Braylon Payne was just 17 on Draft day, one of the youngest prospects in the entire class. That added to the appeal of an exciting profile. Payne is a left-handed-hitting outfielder who sets up in the box with a relaxed, quiet stance. It's a clean, compact swing with fast hands and good bat speed. A flattish bat path makes it a line-drive contact profile right now. Payne sprays the ball around the field effectively, though, and there's a good hit tool there when it's all said and done, given his good bat-to-ball skills.

Payne is a menace on the base paths, with easy plus to double-plus speed which he uses aggressively in games already. Payne plays a good center field, leveraging his speed for now while he hones his route running. It should be a plus glove that can stick in center field, despite having only a fringe-average arm. If Payne can add some loft to his swing and continue to improve his bat speed, he could get to average power to round out a profile grounded in strong hit, speed, and defensive tools.

We know that when the rest of the league zigs in the draft, the Brewers usually zag. They selected Payne with the 17th overall pick and signed him for $3,440,000 (slot $4,534,100). While the pick constituted the first real surprise of the first round, the Brewers being creative with their draft pool was expected. It followed a similar strategy to 2023, in which they signed several picks at underslot prices so they could target Eric Bitonti and Cooper Pratt with overslot deals in later rounds.

2024 Pro Debut: Strengths and Opportunities
2024 Stats (A): 4 games (19 PA), .438/.526/.625 (1.151), 2 XBH, 3 BB, 3 K, 4 SB 

While it’s hard to glean much from a short-lived debut, Payne displayed in four games a microcosm of the reasons the Brewers fell in love with his profile. He has advanced pitch recognition and swing decisions, particularly for a prospect his age (19.5% chase rate), although he does tend to chase at the top of the zone. In the spring before he was drafted, Payne showed more bat speed and impact than you might expect from a prospect his size and age, generating exit velocities north of 110 mph. There will likely be other wrinkles in his offensive profile to address with more playing time and experience. However, if you add increased impact and power to a prospect with excellent feel for the strike zone, you have a platform for value. Add in all that speed and potentially plus defense in center, well, it’s easy to get carried away.

Expectations for 2025
Payne will probably start 2025 at Carolina. He has time on his side and will be one of the younger hitters at that league and level. The Brewers can afford to take their time with him and let their player-development staff go to work on his considerable collection of tools. Don’t be surprised if Payne’s performance forces the issue, though, and he picks up where he left off in 2024. He's a precocious talent who’s easy to dream on.

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[Trax]

I think I'll see him in Appleton by the end of the year where he'll start 2026.   He is one of the most interesting players to watch develop.   In the end another Corey Ray?   Or closer to Jose Altuve?

[gregmag]

Trax, I don’t mean to pick on you, and I know you were just making a casual comparison. But I’ve seen a bunch of people compare Payne to Ray more pointedly, and it just doesn’t make sense. Yes, they’re both outfielders the Brewers drafted in the first round. Ray washed out, and Payne very well could wash out. But. Ray was *4 years older* on draft day than Payne was. IMHO that’s as major a difference between two drafted players as there can ever be. Ray had a very short runway, and he couldn’t get off the ground. Payne has as long a runway as anyone in the minors.

[wallus]

7 minutes ago, gregmag said:

Trax, I don’t mean to pick on you, and I know you were just making a casual comparison. But I’ve seen a bunch of people compare Payne to Ray more pointedly, and it just doesn’t make sense. Yes, they’re both outfielders the Brewers drafted in the first round. Ray washed out, and Payne very well could wash out. But. Ray was *4 years older* on draft day than Payne was. IMHO that’s as major a difference between two drafted players as there can ever be. Ray had a very short runway, and he couldn’t get off the ground. Payne has as long a runway as anyone in the minors.

It's the same lazy comparisons you read all of the time.

Left handed? Check. Outfielder? Check. African American? Check. Comparison over.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Honestly, not a Brewers prospect, but the scouting reports initially gave me more of a less refined (because of age) Enrique Bradfield vibe than Ray. The post-draft reports have me hoping he could tap into more power than Bradfield has thus far.

[Trax]

54 minutes ago, wallus said:

It's the same lazy comparisons you read all of the time.

Left handed? Check. Outfielder? Check. African American? Check. Comparison over.

Altuve is black?  Brilliant!   Just another lazy and blind race card played. 

I could have just as easily said Brice Turang for either example.  It's not about what side they bat from or what position they play.  It's about overall likelihood of success, floor and ceiling.   

[snoogans8056]

45 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Honestly, not a Brewers prospect, but the scouting reports initially gave me more of a less refined (because of age) Enrique Bradfield vibe than Ray. The post-draft reports have me hoping he could tap into more power than Bradfield has thus far.

Bradfield is listed as 170lbs. Payne was listed as a 190lb 17 year old. Kid is gonna be a big boy.

[wallus]

30 minutes ago, Trax said:

Altuve is black?  Brilliant!   Just another lazy and blind race card played. 

I could have just as easily said Brice Turang for either example.  It's not about what side they bat from or what position they play.  It's about overall likelihood of success, floor and ceiling.   

Settle down there. I didn't quote your post so the crappy Altuve comparison didn't come into play. Ray is a horrible one as well.

No race card was played, just a lazy comparison which it is.

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, wallus said:

It's the same lazy comparisons you read all of the time.

Left handed? Check. Outfielder? Check. African American? Check. Comparison over.

Geez

No reason to take this down the race baiting highway.

C'mon.

[wallus]

9 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Geez

No reason to take this down the race baiting highway.

C'mon.

🙄 

Give me an in-depth comparison of how they are similar then.

[Trax]

17 minutes ago, wallus said:

Settle down there. I didn't quote your post so the crappy Altuve comparison didn't come into play. Ray is a horrible one as well.

No race card was played, just a lazy comparison which it is.

You've got nothing but the race pimping and the comparison was spot on.  Like I said, use Brice Turang in either spot.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, snoogans8056 said:

Bradfield is listed as 170lbs. Payne was listed as a 190lb 17 year old. Kid is gonna be a big boy.

True, I was more just going off of the fast slap hitter scouting reports.

[Spencer Michaelis]

Payne gives me some Carl Crawford vibes. This was a bit before my time (Crawford was drafted the year after I was born), but from what I can find, the report on Crawford when he was drafted was that he had a lot of raw skill, strength and athleticism, but the strength hadn't translated to in game power yet, the athleticism was still a WIP in terms of being functional on defense (Payne is likely ahead of him in that regard, but he does need refinement as an outfielder), and the skill hadn't always shown up in performance against the best competition in HS. A lot of that lines up with what we know about Payne.

I also have been saying Payne is kind of like a HS version of Garrett Mitchell since the draft. I think there are plenty of comparable traits between those two as well.

[Michael Trzinski]

1 hour ago, Spencer Michaelis said:

Payne gives me some Carl Crawford vibes. This was a bit before my time (Crawford was drafted the year after I was born), but from what I can find, the report on Crawford when he was drafted was that he had a lot of raw skill, strength and athleticism...,

We can only hope. Crawford was an All-Star at age 22 and led the AL in triples and steals that year. If Payne is 3/4 of the player that Crawford was, we have a good catch!

[Matthew Trueblood]

4 hours ago, Spencer Michaelis said:

Payne gives me some Carl Crawford vibes. This was a bit before my time (Crawford was drafted the year after I was born), but from what I can find, the report on Crawford when he was drafted was that he had a lot of raw skill, strength and athleticism, but the strength hadn't translated to in game power yet, the athleticism was still a WIP in terms of being functional on defense (Payne is likely ahead of him in that regard, but he does need refinement as an outfielder), and the skill hadn't always shown up in performance against the best competition in HS. A lot of that lines up with what we know about Payne.

I also have been saying Payne is kind of like a HS version of Garrett Mitchell since the draft. I think there are plenty of comparable traits between those two as well.

Both from Houston. Both 17 on Draft day. Yeah, that's a comp I don't think anyone can have beef with. 

[Jason Wang]

my player comp is shohei ohtani because both bat lefty and have a penchant for bowties

[Jamie Cameron]

4 hours ago, Spencer Michaelis said:

Payne gives me some Carl Crawford vibes. This was a bit before my time (Crawford was drafted the year after I was born), but from what I can find, the report on Crawford when he was drafted was that he had a lot of raw skill, strength and athleticism, but the strength hadn't translated to in game power yet, the athleticism was still a WIP in terms of being functional on defense (Payne is likely ahead of him in that regard, but he does need refinement as an outfielder), and the skill hadn't always shown up in performance against the best competition in HS. A lot of that lines up with what we know about Payne.

I also have been saying Payne is kind of like a HS version of Garrett Mitchell since the draft. I think there are plenty of comparable traits between those two as well.

I like the Crawford comp, too. I think the piece to add to the discussion is this: the draft scouting reports did not account for Payne's increased strength, bat speed, more impactful batted ball events. I think that will go down as a industry miss and it's the root of why some folks where surprised by the selection.

[jesusoftheapes]

Payne by all aspects looks much better than his draft profile across the board.    His power and contact rate is nice and I really look forward to him moving up the system this season.      He has things going on that really make him more than interesting when it comes to what he can become .        

He looks like he has Brandon Nimmo's swing style.  The Brewers draft well lately and Payne could turn out to be one heck of a find.  

[SF70]

8 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I like the Crawford comp, too. I think the piece to add to the discussion is this: the draft scouting reports did not account for Payne's increased strength, bat speed, more impactful batted ball events. I think that will go down as an industry miss and it's the root of why some folks were surprised by the selection.

And another reason this team’s domestic draft department is firing on all cylinders.

From a 2023 draft-class most saw as superior right after the last signing to a 2024 draft-class panned by most that now is looking like one of the most underrated classes with Payne’s explosion, Dinges’s potential to catch with his hitting ability and a stable of pitching set to make their debut professionally after being worked with by the team’s PDS the last 6 months.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I remember this coming up in the draft thread, including the Ray comparison and the suggestions that it was not a good comparison. Here's what I said:

Quote

If you want to dream on Payne, maybe Carl Crawford is what you hope for? Never more than mid teens home runs but good average, lots of doubles and triples, defense, base running makes for a valuable package. At 6'2" with wide receiver comps, he's not a Dylan O'Rae, and he's young enough that you might expect more strength.  

I think what's most relevant is that both Crawford and Payne were young HS picks, wide receiver types, presumably meaning great speed, agility, and hands, but less time dedicated to baseball. What sets Payne apart from Ray and many other toolsy outfielders is extreme youth but more importantly his precocious swing decisions, which I believe was understood to be something Ray would have to work on.

While there was an expectation that he could slap the ball and get on base, at the time of the draft I don't think anyone here foresaw the exit velocities he would achieve as a 17 year old in low A ball. Kudos to the scouts that did.