Paul DeJong is Becoming an Irresistibly Interesting Target for Brewers

[Matthew Trueblood]

Power has to come from somewhere. It would be great to get it from someone whose power has an obvious and explainable source of its own.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Willy Adames isn't walking through that door, but the Brewers still have to hit home runs in 2025. A dearth of spending power and a powerful organizational preference for chaining together on-base events as a primary engine of offense kept the team from replacing Adames directly to this point in the winter, but as the dance floor empties and teams and the straggling free agents look for chances to pair up, it's getting harder and harder for the Crew not to meet Paul DeJong's eyes.

Last season, DeJong was, frankly, quite good. That's his dirty little secret: he's stranded at the odd ends of the offseason with the misfit toys, but he's a misfit among them. Playing for the worse-than-misfit White Sox and then the out-of-nowhere darling Royals, DeJong batted .227/.276/.427 in a robust 482 plate appearances. Yes, that middle number is ugly as sin, and so was DeJong's overall means of getting the job done. He struck out in 32.4% of his plate appearances and walked in 5.0% of them, and the worst part is that that's not far off his career rates in either regard. Team Swing Decisions can't put itself in the Paul DeJong business, can it?

Well, let's answer that question with another: how badly do you want not to hit the fewest home runs in baseball? Because that's on the table, right now. It's not likely, strictly speaking, but it's certainly in play. Without Adames, the Brewers are depending on a power breakout from sophomore Jackson Chourio, the good health and bettered swing path of Garrett Mitchell, and one last burst of bop from the aged Rhys Hoskins. Meanwhile, DeJong is standing there, ready to address someone's power shortfall in a pretty heady way. For all his whiffs and his wanting walks, he walloped the ball last year.

Though he didn't even qualify for the batting title, DeJong socked 24 home runs and 17 doubles in 2024. Sometimes, guys wander into such power surges without a clear explanation. This was not one of those cases. DeJong's swing speed rose by 2.5 miles per hour from the second half of 2023 to 2024, fueling a rediscovery of the punch he'd had when he first broke into the league and hit 30 home runs with the 2019 aeroball for the Cardinals.

That version of DeJong was a plus defender at shortstop and an average-plus hitter, even if his offensive value was tied up almost entirely in his pop, and that was a dazzlingly valuable combination of strengths.

During his mid-career sag, though, he showed just how ugly it can be when a power-dependent hitter isn't swinging fast enough to generate that power. DeJong hit .189/.253/.330 in 2022 and 2023, and his career was on life support. Here's what it looked like when he connected perfectly, in 2023.

That, of course, isn't so bad. Almost every big-league hitter looks great when you seek out their best work. It's how they got rich. More often, though, DeJong 2022-23 looked like this—just a hair later, a hair more tentative, but more than a hair off. An easy out.

That swing, with the small turn and tap of the toe and a certain lack of rhythm, was not going to allow DeJong to stick in the majors for much longer. Thus, he went into the lab before 2024, and came out with a different lower half—and a rather radically different swing, in general.

There are drawbacks to this kind of high, hanging leg kick. It makes you a little bit manipulable, in certain situations. It's going to mean trading solid opposite-field contact for the power you generate to the pull field. DeJong's answer to all that would be: So what? If he gets to 25-homer power that way, he can make up for pretty much all his other shortcomings. He was just 5% worse than a league-average hitter in 2024, despite only having one offensive skill of any merit.

We don't have a lot of data yet about how bat speed ages—only one full season and one half-season of that data have been comprehensively collected and published. Already, though, it's pretty easy to see how much DeJong's transformation stands out. He overhauled his mechanics and got back the momentum in his swing. That's huge, and for any player on the high side of 30, it's exceptionally rare. There's no reason to think it won't stick, though, or at least that he can't continue to slug as that rejuvenated swing gently declines again. As we move from measuring the outputs of player movement to those movements themselves, we can get a bit more confident in projecting the way those movements produce certain outcomes. This much bat speed produces ample power.

Defensively, the ex-shortstop has only played 41 career games at the hot corner, all of them last year. He took to it like a barfly to Thin Lizzy, though. He would be a stellar final piece in a strong defensive phalanx on the dirt, and he'd be a more capable backup shortstop than Caleb Durbin or Andruw Monasterio, to boot. His minor regional stardom is a fading memory, but DeJong is a Midwest kid who offers every skill the Brewers are missing. He's not going to cost much, because he won't make a huge difference for most teams. He would make a huge difference for Milwaukee, though, and they should lock him up on a cheap one-year deal, before someone else does.

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[sveumrules]

Batting average is kind of passé. but among 170 players with at least 1,500 PAs since 2021 DeJong comes in a not so nice 169th at .203.

His 6.6% walk rate isn't quite as deplorable at 134th, but the combination of the two gives him a .268 OBP which is dead last in the sample by ten points.

Out of 266 players with at least 300 PAs vs LHP since 2021 his 68 wRC+ is 256th.

[wallus]

Can play good defense at 3rd and offer some power at a reasonable price? Sign me up.

Right now we have too many unknowns to rely on Durbin or Dunn to be a starter. I would be fine adding DeJong to the mix and then let those three fight it out to be a starter. Depth, along with starters, is important for us.

If he stinks, you cut him. We aren't talking a big money contract at all.

[brewmann04]

I hope the pull it off would be an upgrade totally over the Current guys. we Know what Andrew brings and the other has never did it at the Major league level. This is a kinda move that will give the Fan Base something to look forward to IMO

[CheeseheadInQC]

Honestly, I would rather give the youngsters first crack at the starting 3rd base job. Now in the Monasterio role, sure, but at this point last season probably is his upside.

[jesusoftheapes]

4 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Honestly, I would rather give the youngsters first crack at the starting 3rd base job. Now in the Monasterio role, sure, but at this point last season probably is his upside.

THAT'S THE WAY!! YES! I love it ! Preach brother!  Let the young guns play.  Then we can shop if need be but I think we got this! 

[jesusoftheapes]

Sorry NO ! DeJong is not for me.   No matter how you print this he is just a washed up hasbeen with no future and he is not better than the guys we have in waiting.     The 2025 season is not for filling holes .  The 2025 season is for finally letting the build come to life.    The Brewers built a group of players here who are only a call up or minimal developmental push to become household names themselves.     It is a great season to let the chips fall where they may and see if that talent is what we think it is.   The Brewers are not 2nd place for doing this either and are still the defending champs with the edge to win it.    

I think the Baby Bears are looking at DeJong anyways.   Let them have him and just play the roster. 

[sveumrules]

4 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Honestly, I would rather give the youngsters first crack at the starting 3rd base job. Now in the Monasterio role, sure, but at this point last season probably is his upside.

This is where I’m at too.

Everyday that goes by without an infield addition is that much more of a sign that the org is way higher on Durbin than many of the posters here.

And that’s probably because his projections (and upside) are better than DeJong’s. Here’s the ranges for the eight different projections on each of their player pages at FanGraphs…

Durbin
wRC+ (80 to 95)
WAR (0.6 to 1.3)

DeJong
wRC+ (75 to 85)
WAR (0.3 to 1.3)

ZiPS 80th percentile for DeJong is 101 OPS+ | 2.0 WAR versus 107 OPS+ | 2.2 WAR for Caleb.

Personally, I’m excited to see what Caleb’s got. Baseball is supposed to be fun and what is more fun than a 5’6” speed demon contact machine? 

Something else to note about Durbin’s projections are that his highest combined BsR/DEF is +2.6. Don’t have to squint too hard to see him topping that by almost a win if he ends up getting 400+ PAs.

If they were to add a still out there free agent I think I might prefer Brendan Rodgers to DeJong since he hits lefties way better and has more favorable projection ranges…

Rodgers
wRC+ (87 to 107 wRC+)
WAR (0.8 to 1.5 WAR)

[Austin Tatious]

DeJong isn’t a philosophical fit so I’d be surprised if he is on the table.  Brewers just don’t look for his profile and approach. 

[Brian]

Caleb Durbin will be our 3rd baseman I believe, he has good speed, great instincts on the bases. We didn't trade Devin Williams for nothing. 

 

https://www.milb.com/player/caleb-durbin-702332

[bigred]

Sign Dejong or Turner ASAP! 

[AKCheesehead]

Matthew, I've got to give credit where it's due.  

 

"He took to it like a barfly to Thin Lizzy"

 

That right there is some great stuff.  Interesting write up overall.  I'm not so sure how I feel about DeJong, however I did find this one particular set of splits from last year to be interesting.  Read into it what you will.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=dejonpa01&year=2024&t=b#power

ETA: I'm talking about his splits on power vs finess pitchers.  I have not had success importing tables from baseball reference, sadly.

[gregmag]

I just don’t see how 25 hr with a .275 OBP is desirable, let alone irresistible. DeJong’s defense does help the argument. But power doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Yes, home runs count. So do outs, and DeJong makes outs at one of the worst rates in MLB. I think the Brewers are wise enough not to go this direction. As for the “Durbin and Dunn haven’t done it in MLB” argument, what DeJong has done the past several years in MLB has mostly been appalling. I’ll take an unproven flyer over a proven albatross seven days a week.

[Jim French Stepstool]

On 2/13/2025 at 8:08 PM, sveumrules said:

 

Everyday that goes by without an infield addition is that much more of a sign that the org is way higher on Durbin than many of the posters here.

 

Yep, that seems apparent. If DeJong is the alternative, it's easy for me to trust Durbin, and the front office, on this one.

[Bratwithspecialsauce]

Low on base percentage guys rarely help, 

Durbin will get a shot and I wonder if Frelick will take teps at 3rd in spring training.. The Cubs are improved and still seeking help..Being stagnant is not a Brewers option.. they need a power bat at 3rd, but a .320 OBP has to be part of the equation.