Rule 5 to CWS - Shane Smith Discussion Thread

[wiguy94]

48 minutes ago, Brewer77 said:

Smith’s best pitch by Stuff+ has been his changeup (101). I’d be curious to know how much the Brewers pushed him to develop that pitch or why it’s just showing up this year. Having that wider arsenal makes a big difference for someone with just okay stuff

They didn't. That pitch was developed this offseason by the White Sox. They wanted him to add a changeup and gave him a couple of grip suggestions. He found one that worked and boom there it was. It was the first thing they did after they drafted him.

[Brewer77]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

They didn't. That pitch was developed this offseason by the White Sox. They wanted him to add a changeup and gave him a couple of grip suggestions. He found one that worked and boom there it was. It was the first thing they did after they drafted him.

I understand it’s a new pitch for him, but you know it was something that was never really discussed within the organization or just making an educated guess? I’m just scratching my head on the Brewers process if it wasn’t in their plans and the White Sox pegged it from the start 

[Matt]

[TURBO]

Shane Smith was uninvolved in the decision Saturday after shutting out the Marlins for six innings.

 

Smith left with a one-run lead, but it didn’t even survive an inning after things were turned over to the White Sox pen. One of the best stories of the year, Smith, the first pick in December’s Rule 5 draft, is sporting a 2.08 ERA through eight starts, yet he has only one win to show for it. 

[BrewerFan]

On 5/6/2025 at 4:37 PM, Brewer77 said:

I understand it’s a new pitch for him, but you know it was something that was never really discussed within the organization or just making an educated guess? I’m just scratching my head on the Brewers process if it wasn’t in their plans and the White Sox pegged it from the start 

Smith was an outstanding pitcher in the minors for the Brewers...to the point where people were confused why he wasn't called up last year. 

He was a pitcher everyone thought was a near lock to be added to the 40 man so as to not be subject to the Rule5. 

The Brewers are as good at any team in MLB at working with pitchers and help them refine their repertoire. He was already toying with a cutter last year. I think it's silly to think the White Sox were the only team that could have helped him take the next step.

It seems like we made a mistake. The guy is built like a workhorse, he throws in the mid 90s touching 97 and even 98 at times with good location and he'd had an abnormal climb up the MiLB ladder, but to just heap all of his success on this change seems foolish to me. His FB has been very good, he has a CB, slider and again the cutter. That's basically what the Change is, a variation of a cutter.

I think there's a mountain of evidence that the Brewers just simply missed this one. 

Did the Brewers work on him with him to develop a Change? Maybe. That was perhaps the cutter he was throwing last year, playing with the grip. Is it possible(or probable) he'd have benefitted from being with the Brewers all STing with his role as starter a bit more solidified. 

The butterfly effect was trading the 33rd pick in the draft and a very exciting young CFer to get a young pitching prospect who hasn't had nearly the success Smith had and Smith at the very least is likely as effective as Priester even if you take out the Change that...has been good, but not exactly revolutionary. 

 

It sucks, but this is where we are. We made a mistake in letting Smith go. The Brewers make the right call the vast majority of the time, they blew this one. Shane Smith and Freddy Peralta atop their rotation with Woody, coming back, Civale, Ashby and Hall working back and...then Henderson and Misiorowski in AAA just absolutely dealing(I'm hoping it's to build his arm strength for next year before starting, but perhaps a 3-4 inning reliever down the stretch). 

 

So....in a system with a LOT going well, 5 picks in the first two rounds, with several LA players vying to become top 100 prospects, including a couple who could become top 10-15 in Made and Pena we missed one. We'll move on...mostly, We'll likely keep bringing back up 'the one who got away,' with some angry, some rationalizing it, but it's over. It we end up a good #2/3 starting pitcher away, we can lament the loss further after the season. 

[Jim Goulart]

17!

 

[BrewerFan]

All I see is we got rid of a pitcher who is 1-7 and doesn't know how to win games!

 

 

(2025...I don't actually need blue font, do I? You guys all get it). 

[Playing Catch]

One thing that is true is that the Brewers signed Smith as a minor league free agent. Say what one will about the 40-man decision, but this isn't a thread at all if Smith merely ends up a minor league journeyman. Credit needs to be given to the player procurement side of things, too, and of course to the player for his improvement. Those two factors put the Brewers in a position to make a mistake in the first place.

[Jim Goulart]

 

[Jim Goulart]

Six Cubs runs in the 2nd (one earned).

[Jopal78]

Smith getting walloped at Wrigley. Some bad defense behind him will keep the ERA sparkling, but in two innings so far 5 hits, a double, triple and homerun, and every time a Cub batter makes contact it’s a liner off a low 90s pitch over the middle of the plate 

Sorry, I’m not seeing it. I’m seeing a guy who is going to wind up with about 5 innings per start across 28 with an 4.50 era and 1.50 WHIP

[AKCheesehead]

Figures that when he faces the cubs, that's when he has a bad day. 

[Jopal78]

Smith was ugly again yesterday against the Mets:

3 2/3 innings-86 pitches: 3 earned runs, 2 hits (one for a homer), 5 walks, a HBP
 

4.67 ERA across his last 3 starts. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Smith was ugly again yesterday against the Mets:

3 2/3 innings-86 pitches: 3 earned runs, 2 hits (one for a homer), 5 walks, a HBP
 

4.67 ERA across his last 3 starts. 

And that ERA actually is way under inflated compared to runs given up in that span.  It's not lost on me that his struggles are building as the MLB exposure and innings pitched increases.

Shane Smith does not equal Johan Santana in terms of Rule 5 draft casualties that make an organization rue the day they let him go for years.  I will say that he'd fit right in as a starter capable of consistently giving the Brewers 4+ IP and keeping the team in most games he starts - but those type of arms are everywhere.  

Was it a roster management mistake to leave Smith exposed and lose him?  I would say yes - but does losing Smith dramatically alter the longterm outlook of the Brewers at the MLB level? Absolutely not.  I think we are going to have to get used to some Rule 5 purging / 40 man DFA casualties the next few years as prospects continue maturing in the Brewer system - it's a product of a good minor league organization.

[TURBO]

Since his last couple of starts were posted here when he didn't do so hot, I thought I'd post his latest start to be fair.  Keep in mind, he is pitching for one of the worst teams in MLB, and was able to shut down one of the best teams in MLB.

 

 

Smith (2-3) earned the win Tuesday, allowing three hits and two walks over 5.1 scoreless innings against the Tigers. He struck out six.

Analysis

Smith neutralized the Tigers' offense, recording his fourth scoreless outing of the season. The right-hander has impressed in his rookie campaign, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 62.1 innings. While the White Sox remain at the bottom of the AL Central, Smith has been a clear bright spot.

[TURBO]

Shane Smith allowed one run with four strikeouts over six innings in a win over the Astros on Tuesday.

 

Smith had an excellent day on the mound, holding the Astros to one run over six frames. A single, double, and sacrifice fly brought one run in to score for Houston in the third inning. He scattered seven hits while walking two with four strikeouts. The 25-year-old right-hander will take a 2.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 64/27K/BB ratio across 68 1/3 innings into a start against the Rangers in Texas on Sunday.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

Shane Smith allowed one run with four strikeouts over six innings in a win over the Astros on Tuesday.

 

Smith had an excellent day on the mound, holding the Astros to one run over six frames. A single, double, and sacrifice fly brought one run in to score for Houston in the third inning. He scattered seven hits while walking two with four strikeouts. The 25-year-old right-hander will take a 2.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 64/27K/BB ratio across 68 1/3 innings into a start against the Rangers in Texas on Sunday.

It’s kind of wild that you could make a case the three best rookie starters in baseball this year so far were all in the Brewers system last year if you give Henderson the nod over Warren despite the limited outings.

[Jopal78]

Walloped by the Cardinals on 6/17/25.

4.1 IP, 6H, 3BB, 1HBP and 5 ER. 

[Jopal78]

Smith pounded again, this time by the D’Backs.

2 IP, 4 H, 2BB, 1 HBP, 1 HR. 5 ER.

 5.60 ERA and a WHIP of 1.62 in June.
 

 

[BrewerFan]

36 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Smith pounded again, this time by the D’Backs.

2 IP, 4 H, 2BB, 1 HBP, 1 HR. 5 ER.

 5.60 ERA and a WHIP of 1.62 in June.
 

 

Yeah, this is a...crappy way to look at things, but...does make me feel better!

It's unfair to hope the guy fails because we blew this one, but it'd be tougher if he went and won a Cy Young. 

[wiguy94]

Feels like this thread can probably just be closed at this point. Basically the only time there are new posts is when Jopal is trying to victory lap a bad start or Turbo trying to victory lap a good start.

[BrewerFan]

On 6/11/2025 at 9:44 AM, CheeseheadInQC said:

It’s kind of wild that you could make a case the three best rookie starters in baseball this year so far were all in the Brewers system last year if you give Henderson the nod over Warren despite the limited outings.

Man, how a few weeks can change things!

The FOUR best rookie starters(arguably) with Mis.

What it tells me is that...despite making a mistake, the Brewers are one of, if not the best teams at finding Starting Pitching that's not a gimme like Skenes and turning them into qualify MLB starters. 

 

53 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Feels like this thread can probably just be closed at this point. Basically the only time there are new posts is when Jopal is trying to victory lap a bad start or Turbo trying to victory lap a good start.

Why are we always so eager to close threads?

This is about Shane Smith. I don't see anything wrong with tracking how the season plays out. It's not like there are 50 new topics that are just red hot and this is burying others. 

[Jopal78]

6 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Feels like this thread can probably just be closed at this point. Basically the only time there are new posts is when Jopal is trying to victory lap a bad start or Turbo trying to victory lap a good start.

Someone started this thread to literally track Smith’s progress this season

I was wrong, the Brewers won’t be getting Smith back. However, it is certainly starting to look like Smith is an under experienced professional who is now struggling to make a counter adjustment against major league hitters, as opposed to mythical phenom anchoring a major league rotation. 

[BrewerFan]

On 5/6/2025 at 4:37 PM, Brewer77 said:

I understand it’s a new pitch for him, but you know it was something that was never really discussed within the organization or just making an educated guess? I’m just scratching my head on the Brewers process if it wasn’t in their plans and the White Sox pegged it from the start 

They just made a mistake. I don't believe he wasn't going to figure it out with the Brewers. 

We have how many pitchers who've developed a Change or cutter into their career?

Saying he wouldn't have is kinda like saying Freddy Peralta never would have become the pitcher he is as he MAINLY just threw FBs early on. 

The Brewers just blew this one and that's alright. Henderson, Patrick, Henderson...it's a bit costly(Yophery, #33 and an interesting reliever) but...

On 5/29/2025 at 8:08 AM, Fear The Chorizo said:

And that ERA actually is way under inflated compared to runs given up in that span.  It's not lost on me that his struggles are building as the MLB exposure and innings pitched increases.

Shane Smith does not equal Johan Santana in terms of Rule 5 draft casualties that make an organization rue the day they let him go for years.  I will say that he'd fit right in as a starter capable of consistently giving the Brewers 4+ IP and keeping the team in most games he starts - but those type of arms are everywhere.  

Was it a roster management mistake to leave Smith exposed and lose him?  I would say yes - but does losing Smith dramatically alter the longterm outlook of the Brewers at the MLB level? Absolutely not.  I think we are going to have to get used to some Rule 5 purging / 40 man DFA casualties the next few years as prospects continue maturing in the Brewer system - it's a product of a good minor league organization.

I think this is grossly understating how hard it is to find starting pitchers. Perhaps because we've been spoiled, but he's playing for a terrible team with poor defense and he's been a #2/#3. 

He's nowhere near Santana obviously(just as I don't think Pratt will end up Gunnar Henderson from the right side), HOWEVER... he's a guy you can reasonably count on giving you 5-6 innings right now and I think he'll cement that further as he progresses, but if you had him, you also wouldn't need Priester. 

We gave up a LOT in that trade. The 33rd pick and the bonus pool money that comes with it was enough. 

 

What's more, I'd say having those assets, Mis, Henderson, Smith, Patrick as 4 reliable starters... does it "dramatically" alter the long-term outlook? I don't know, that's kinda vague, but it was a significant misstep. In another 2 years, we may have Tyson Hardin, Letson, KC Hunt...Wichrowski, Meccage,  

Does the #33rd pick, Yophery Rodriguez and a reliever get us Suraez? It might...Or you could have both. That works also. You need 7 or 8 pitchers. Who'd have thought we'd lose probably the #2 and #3 pitchers in our rotation(projecting Cortes and Woodruff as the 2/3 in some manner, even if Woodruff is "only" touching 94-95) and we'd be sending Logan Henderson down after 4 starts with a 1.77 ERA and 3 wins(not that the stat is important, but 4-0 in games he started). 

 

***Again, I think the MORE important thing is to recognize the embarrassment of riches the Brewers have with regard to young arms (which isn't even as impressive as the young bats). And if this and the Reese Olson trades end up being the two worst moves the Brewers make over...~5 years, I'm feeling pretty good moving forward. 

 

As for the last part in bold;

-I think you can look at how the Dodgers have done things. They seem to make more prospect for prospect trades than anyone, presumably due to 40-man issues since they sign...like... literally 6-8 Cy Young caliber pitchers and many get hurt. 

 

 

 

[BrewerFan]

30 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Someone started this thread to literally track Smith’s progress this season

I was wrong, the Brewers won’t be getting Smith back. However, it is certainly starting to look like Smith is an under experienced professional who is now struggling to make a counter adjustment against major league hitters, as opposed to mythical phenom anchoring a major league rotation. 

You don't think it juuust might lie somewhere in the middle?

He's a very good pitcher, a high end #3 who could be a #2 and he's struggled a bit. 

He had a 2.86 ERA coming in and had shut down the Astsros and Tigers in his two prior starts before the two you cited.

I'm sure he'll have to adjust...and his stuff is plenty good that I have no doubt he will, but I think perhaps you're exaggerating how good anyone has suggested he was. 

I MIGHT say Paul Skenes is a "mythical phenom anchoring a major Legue rotation," Nobody said that about Smith. 

 

But I guess I was wrong, this really is just a 'he had a bad start, I'm right,' thread vs a 'he had a good start, I'm right' thread.