Rule 5 to CWS - Shane Smith Discussion Thread

[Fear The Chorizo]

We will see the longevity of this "mistake"...to me this has alot of the same feel as Phil Bickford winding up on the Dodgers after the Brewers DFA'd him, saw him have success for a bit and then has been with multiple organizations (major and minor leagues) since then trying to hang onto his career.  

Smith looks to have all the stuff you'd want to see in a pitcher - but he does have the injury history that initially made him an undrafted FA signee by the Brewers just 4 years ago...and the jury is out on his durability due to limited innings pitched while in the Brewers' system over the past few years.  

I hope he is great and stays healthy - he couldn't have asked for a better team to pick him (one that is terrible and has no intentions of contending) in the Rule V to give him an extended MLB opportunity.

I'm sure it was explained late last fall when it was apparent Smith would be Rule 5 eligible - the rule states if sign at 19yrs of age or older and play 4 professional seasons in the minors you are Rule 5 eligible.  I know Smith signed in '21 but I don't think he logged any minor league innings that year because he was rehabbing from TJ that he sustained his senior year of college - his minor league stats only span 3 seasons.  Shouldn't Smith have still needed to log a fourth minor league season in 2025 before being Rule 5 eligible? 

[StearnsFTW]

16 hours ago, Matt said:

They could fire Arnold over the Smith decision and I wouldn't even be bothered. 

 nm

 

[StearnsFTW]

16 hours ago, Matt said:

For absolutely no reason he gave up on a guy who's looked like a legitimate ace. It's a decision that defies belief.  

OK, so you were serious.  Woof.

A little bit of an overreaction.

[Jopal78]

56 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I think even the most ardent supporters of the team realize that they likely fumbled this one.

That said, the hyperbolic "fireable offense" crap is very much over the top. It's those reactions that are getting pushback. 

…and to the extent it’s a mistake, it’s with 20/20 hindsight.

Teams do have scouts watching velocity, command, secondary offerings in the Southern League and there is advanced tracking technology there too. Every team is going to have their list of the top 300-500 prospects with scouting reports, maybe even more minor league players than that.

With the scarcity of starting pitching it is obvious  if any other team in the major leagues had an inkling that after 157 minor league innings and just 6 AAA innings, Shane Smith was ready to step into a big league rotation and get batters out, they would have tried to acquire him from Milwaukee. 

The other reality lost in the hindsight is, even if the Brewers had added Smith to the Brewers 40 man roster. If Hall, Ashby. Myers etc. had stayed healthy in Camp, Smith almost assuredly would’ve been one of the first reassignments to the minor league side.

Who knows, maybe Shane Smith will  be the pitching version of Albert Pujols coming from nowhere to the HOF seemingly overnight, but so far it’s 2 games and  11+ innings. 
 

Regardless I am not going to bust the front office’s chops where if they missed it seemingly every other club missed it too. Like Pujols, once in a blue moon, something wonky happens 

[Austin Tatious]

There were some knowledgeable posters (not me) who in real time were livid about us leaving Smith protected.  It’s not like this was hindsight.  The fact that the White Sox ran the card up like Flash Gordon in the Rule 5 draft reinforces the point.  

Self-scouting your own personnel is as important as anything in your organization.  It sure looks like this was botched and it’s exacerbated by how badly we could have used him right now and in the future considering our shortage of controllable years in starting pitching.  

[Austin Tatious]

34 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

…and to the extent it’s a mistake, it’s with 20/20 hindsight.

Teams do have scouts watching velocity, command, secondary offerings in the Southern League and there is advanced tracking technology there too. Every team is going to have their list of the top 300-500 prospects with scouting reports, maybe even more minor league players than that.

With the scarcity of starting pitching it is obvious  if any other team in the major leagues had an inkling that after 157 minor league innings and just 6 AAA innings, Shane Smith was ready to step into a big league rotation and get batters out, they would have tried to acquire him from Milwaukee. 

The other reality lost in the hindsight is, even if the Brewers had added Smith to the Brewers 40 man roster. If Hall, Ashby. Myers etc. had stayed healthy in Camp, Smith almost assuredly would’ve been one of the first reassignments to the minor league side.

Who knows, maybe Shane Smith will  be the pitching version of Albert Pujols coming from nowhere to the HOF seemingly overnight, but so far it’s 2 games and  11+ innings. 
 

Regardless I am not going to bust the front office’s chops where if they missed it seemingly every other club missed it too. Like Pujols, once in a blue moon, something wonky happens 

I didn’t get the Pujols reference.  Did you mean Big Papi?

[Jopal78]

2 minutes ago, Austin Tatious said:

There were some knowledgeable posters (not me) who in real time were livid about us leaving Smith protected.  It’s not like this was hindsight.  The fact that the White Sox ran the card up like Flash Gordon in the Rule 5 draft reinforces the point.  

Self-scouting your own personnel is as important as anything in your organization.  It sure looks like this was botched and it’s exacerbated by how badly we could have used him right now and in the future considering our shortage of controllable years in starting pitching.  

Exactly, there some “posters” on a message board were livid, anyone think those posters have better information and knowledge than folks who get paid to scout players for a pro-baseball team?! That’s the point. 
 

Maybe Smith slipped through the cracks on everyone, but if you’re a scout with the Mississippi Braves and you have a glowing scouting report, and don’t recommend attempting to acquire the player when you learn the player is going to be  left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, it means you’re a terrible scout. Do you see that scenario playing out with Smith across all the teams certainly in the Southern League and more? I don’t. 

[Austin Tatious]

I keep up with minor league box scores and write ups as well as social media.  But I’m not watching the games so I’m more of an aggregator as opposed to offering my own analysis. But I can fairly say that there were fans talking up Shane Smith last year and kudos to them and for calling out the mistake as it happened.  

[Jopal78]

3 minutes ago, Austin Tatious said:

I didn’t get the Pujols reference.  Did you mean Big Papi?

Pujols was drafted at 19 year old in the 13th round in 1999, played essentially one season in A ball, then in 2001 put up a 6.6 WAR in the majors. Nobody saw that coming. That is the analogy, sometimes weird things happen with player performance that nobody sees coming.

 

[Austin Tatious]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Exactly, there some “posters” on a message board were livid, anyone think those posters have better information and knowledge than folks who get paid to scout players for a pro-baseball team?! That’s the point. 
 

Maybe Smith slipped through the cracks on everyone, but if you’re a scout with the Mississippi Braves and you have a glowing scouting report, and don’t recommend attempting to acquire the player when you learn the player is going to be  left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, it means you’re a terrible scout. Do you see that scenario playing out with Smith across all the teams certainly in the Southern League and more? I don’t. 

Sometimes fans have enough insight to make the right call and the organization makes a mistake.  It’s not a proper assumption to assume a front office executive is automatically going to make the right call over a studious fan.  It happens all the time where the fan has the right ideas.  Front office executives make mistakes all the time where fans would have been right.  Like all the time.  

[Austin Tatious]

2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Pujols was drafted at 19 year old in the 13th round in 1999, played essentially one season in A ball, then in 2001 put up a 6.6 WAR in the majors. Nobody saw that coming. That is the analogy, sometimes weird things happen with player performance that nobody sees coming.

 

He was very well regarded when he came up.  Papi is a guy who floundered and then all of a sudden turned into a rocket ship. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

There is definitely hyperbole happening here, but it is inexcusable that a small market let this happen. It's honestly bizarre. I can't wrap my head around it.

[bigred]

44 minutes ago, Austin Tatious said:

He was very well regarded when he came up.  Papi is a guy who floundered and then all of a sudden turned into a rocket ship. 

Papi soared because of roids. His name was one that was constantly brought up in steroid talks. 

[tmwiese55]

55 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Pujols was drafted at 19 year old in the 13th round in 1999, played essentially one season in A ball, then in 2001 put up a 6.6 WAR in the majors. Nobody saw that coming. That is the analogy, sometimes weird things happen with player performance that nobody sees coming.

 

Yup, I'm sure steroid free too!!  Especially looking at that bald spot he had by like 23 years old.

to this topic, for a team that has been so spot on with pitching lately it is really surprising they made this mistake.   But hey no one is perfect

[CheeseheadInQC]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

 

I'm sure it was explained late last fall when it was apparent Smith would be Rule 5 eligible - the rule states if sign at 19yrs of age or older and play 4 professional seasons in the minors you are Rule 5 eligible.  I know Smith signed in '21 but I don't think he logged any minor league innings that year because he was rehabbing from TJ that he sustained his senior year of college - his minor league stats only span 3 seasons.  Shouldn't Smith have still needed to log a fourth minor league season in 2025 before being Rule 5 eligible? 

Unless they changed it, Rule 5 eligibility is signing date dependent with a moving target of when the team he’d be assigned to has its season end. There was one prospect a couple of years ago who we couldn’t decide when he would be eligible because he signed after the DSL regular season ended but before the postseason ended. That is why there was a year with very few new international signings becoming eligible after they moved the signing date from July to January.

[Fear The Chorizo]

30 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Unless they changed it, Rule 5 eligibility is signing date dependent with a moving target of when the team he’d be assigned to has its season end. There was one prospect a couple of years ago who we couldn’t decide when he would be eligible because he signed after the DSL regular season ended but before the postseason ended. That is why there was a year with very few new international signings becoming eligible after they moved the signing date from July to January.

Gotcha and makes sense - just the timing of how Smith's career began with the Brewers put them behind the 8 ball.

 

Not saying Smith didn't deserve to be protected and added to the 40 man last fall, but who know what other irons were in the fire at that point that prevented them from doing so.  

[Team Canada]

It'd be nice if some member of the media would ask Arnold about this.

[Jopal78]

26 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

It'd be nice if some member of the media would ask Arnold about this.

What do you expect him to say?  I would almost bet you any response would be along the lines of “These type of decisions, who to protect, are a sign of a healthy  player development program. While is Smith is a player we liked, at the time there were other players who we projected were going to help us more in 2025”.

[Team Canada]

He may well say that, it doesn't mean it's not a question that should be asked. It's an obviously follow up question to the trade: "Matt, don't you wish you'd just kept Smith instead of having to trade significant capital for Priester?" Reporters ask potentially obvious questions all the time, but no one is in his head and knows for sure what the rationale was. That's why you ask and then report on it.

[Jopal78]

26 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

He may well say that, it doesn't mean it's not a question that should be asked. It's an obviously follow up question to the trade: "Matt, don't you wish you'd just kept Smith instead of having to trade significant capital for Priester?" Reporters ask potentially obvious questions all the time, but no one is in his head and knows for sure what the rationale was. That's why you ask and then report on it.

Again, do you expect any sort of insight? The answer to that question is: In hindsight, with all the injuries, duh!

[BallFour]

I think I am more disappointed that the Brewers couldn't help him develop a new pitch like the White Sox seemed to have done. I don't like being outclassed by the White Sox.

[wiguy94]

3 hours ago, BallFour said:

I think I am more disappointed that the Brewers couldn't help him develop a new pitch like the White Sox seemed to have done. I don't like being outclassed by the White Sox.

Yeah this is the part that annoys me. The version of Shane Smith that we didn't protect would not be starting and doing this well in the MLB. With the White Sox Smith both improved his velo and added a disgusting kick change that he never threw in Milwaukee. Without that changeup he's really more of a 2 pitch guy and his FB has gotten hit hard through 2 games with an Avg EV against of 95.5 and a .320 xBA and .477 xSLG.

[markedman5]

Rosenthal today in the Athletic 

The Brewers declined to protect Smith on their 40-man roster last November, risking that no team would take him in the Rule 5 draft. It was a reasonable bet: Smith, 25, had thrown only 157 innings in the minors due to injuries and working mostly as a reliever.

The White Sox, though, had other ideas, grabbing Smith with the first pick of the draft for $100,000. Their choice already looks shrewd, with Smith producing a 1.54 ERA in his first two starts. But White Sox general manager Chris Getz empathizes with the Brewers, saying the pitcher Smith has become is not the pitcher he was in the Milwaukee organization.

“It’s not a good feeling. It isn’t. And you reflect back on that process,” Getz said of losing a pitcher such as Smith. “However, we didn’t see this coming, either.”

[Matt]

A bunch of message board dorks thought it was a bad bet. There was nothing reasonable about it.

[ghostdrew]

Sorry rather have priester  than smith